When will this shit end?

[Toilet Duck]

14 minutes ago, Leyrulion said:

Right got a phone call this morning to take part in the Johnson and Johnson vaccine trial. Booked in for next week!

Guess I should double check that it's not going to give me 2 heads now. 

@Toilet Duckthis is a promising candidate right?

Howdy, Yep, it looks pretty good. They are doing both a 1 shot and a 2 shot trial, so not sure which one you are going on. It's very similar to the Oxford vaccine (uses an adenovirus vector to deliver the spike protein instructions). 

[eFestivals]

1 hour ago, Copperface said:

I think we still have some who believe the 'no restrictions by Easter' wibble.

I've not seen an single soul suggest that.

[DeanoL]

17 hours ago, Leyrulion said:

If they wanted to do it effectively they'd add a form onto the NHS app. You enter the reason you're leaving your house (exercise, shopping, medical) and it gives you a green 'tick' for 60-90 minutes. After that it turns red and you can't fill in the form again until the next day. 

Then shops only allow people with green ticks in and the police can check people out exercising if they want to. No green tick=fine. 

No smartphone? Then stay at home and get priority in ordering food online from the supermarket. 

Everyone working from home. In an exempt sector? Every NHS app has a unique identifier, the employer uploads your unique identifier and your hours of work and that tells the app the times which you're allowed out and it gives you a green tick.

If there was to be a stricter lockdown that's how I'd do it, knowing nothing about how the app works!

Really interesting post, thanks. I've done similar theorising myself - what if we had a China-style surveillance system but with a benevolent force in charge? (Yeah I know it's a fairy tale but it's sort of interesting).

You could do so much with that. For example, you could register exclusive bubbles of say 3 households, and the system could check those were the only people you were in close contact with. Each bubble could nominate one pub and one restaurant that they could attend. So therefore each pub becomes its own sort of "super-bubble" of a few hundred people. Maybe if you have kids you have to nominate a school instead and can't do the pub/restaurant thing.

And if someone got ill you could actually enforce the isolation.

[zahidf]

 

[Chef]

8 minutes ago, alanr said:

The big problem is that the government did not condemn these breaches, and in  the case of cummings bent over backwards to justify his actions and avoid any form of apology. I think most of the population still respect the rules, but unfortunately there is a large minority whom are now always seeking ways to  bend the rules to their own selfish short term advantage

I think the point you make is just one of many reason why individuals may not be following the rules - others include seeing people around them not following rules so why should they, general lockdown fatigue, missing loved ones, social media conspiracy theories etc. but whatever the reason it is still going to be an issue if people do not do what is asked of them, and that's what needs to be looked at alongside all the other problems with government response, schools, sports, mixing etc. 

[MEGABOWL]

4 minutes ago, topmarksbri said:

Ok, if you don't want larger lockdowns or more intrusive track and trace/monitoring then you have to accept rises in cases and therefore deaths. You can basically choose 2 out of 3.  

I think we are at the stage where we have to accept there are going to be cases (for a long time, possibly forever) and Deaths (hopefully much less once Vaccines get rolled out). I think Zero Covid is a total pipe dream especially if Chinese-style surveillance is the only way to do it. I lost my Gran to Covid but I’ve also got kids and their future is important.

[DeanoL]

I've tried to like Starmer, I really have, but this current call for "a nationwide lockdown" without actually saying what those restrictions should be is probably a clever piece of political maneuvering but it makes me feel icky because it's not actually showing any leadership or making a real point, it's purely political.

The only he wants that isn't currently the case is the same restrictions everywhere in the country. That's different to the current system, but not in any substantive way. Unless he says what he means by "lockdown" it's meaningless. I would argue we are actually currently in a "nationwide lockdown" with everywhere in tier 3 and 4 anyway. It's just Johnson made a point of not calling it that.

[efcfanwirral]

16 minutes ago, Ozanne said:

Our government have got many, many things wrong and have repeatedly refused to learn from those mistakes. That right there is unforgivable. If they learnt from their mistakes and acted quicker things wouldn’t be as bad as they are now. It doesn’t matter what another party might or might not have done, because another party aren’t in power. The Tories are and they aren’t learning from the past. 

But you personally follow the rules in place because you know it's the right thing to do in a pandemic. You know why the rules are in place despite what the government says or does

So why is there an excuse for others not doing the same? For people just carrying on as normal? For people somehow being blindsided by lockdowns because they dont take any notice of the world around them ("the news depresses me" is one I've heard - tough shit its real life)? 

There are rules in place that, if followed correctly, would not lead to these numbers. How late they are shouldn't stop them being adhered to, nor make people just ignore even the reasons for the rules. Household mixing was banned in many places, but it clearly was happening. A lot, even before christmas considering the numbers we're seeing

For me just blaming the government gives a free pass to the stupidity and selfishness of huge parts of this country.

[jparx]

17 minutes ago, Andre91 said:

School return Day 1 update: 

What a fucking shambles and waste of everyone's time. 

I taught Year 7 Period 1 to one child in the classroom and the rest at home streaming. 

I am currently teaching Year 11 to one child in the classroom, with none of the other students bothering to join the stream from home. 

I am teaching Year 10 after lunch tp zero children actually in school, so the entirety of that lesson will be streaming to kids at home. 

 

The whole of Year 7 (which I am Assistant Head of Year for) has 12 students in school today. 

The whole of Year 9 has 13 students in school today. 

The whole of Year 11 has 13 students in school today. 

I haven't scouted Years 8 and 10 yet  but i think it can safely be assumed that there will be similar numbers in those year groups too. 

Also, to add to the madness, I thought it was just the teaching staff who were told they have to be in school today. Oh, no. Oh, no no no. All office and admin staff have been made to come in too. It is insane. 

 

My colleague's children's school has put whole year groups in ICT rooms with access to computers and told the students coming into school to bring headphones so that they can listen to their teachers streaming from home and SMT/SLT are staffing the ICT rooms. 

Why the hell would you make your entire staff come in?  

Sounds absolutely ridiculous. A u-turn is surely coming before the end of the week? Why can’t we just make these decisions ahead of time instead of walking in to a shit show that everyone outside of the cabinet can see coming?! Sorry you’re having to experience such a mess!

[xxialac]

59 minutes ago, RobertProsineckisLighter said:

Support bubbles are 100% needed for the reasons you mention there is no other practical way to support those who need bubbles long term. 

The guidance could be a little clearer but it's not hard to understand. https://www.gov.uk/guidance/making-a-support-bubble-with-another-household

Like most of the .gov.uk site it's layed out well andodtky easy to understand. Government guidance is that government websites are in language a primary school child can understand. 

Ignorance shouldn't just be excused by saying it's all the government's fault because in this instance it isn't all their fault.

 

I haven't seen a single tv or social media advert which explains how support bubbles work.

Maybe they exist but I should have been bombarded by them.

People are not used to consuming information on a formal, dry government website. It may be easy to understand but involves you going there proactively, there are no pictures and it's not engaging.

[topmarksbri]

8 minutes ago, MEGABOWL said:

I think we are at the stage where we have to accept there are going to be cases (for a long time, possibly forever) and Deaths (hopefully much less once Vaccines get rolled out). I think Zero Covid is a total pipe dream especially if Chinese-style surveillance is the only way to do it. I lost my Gran to Covid but I’ve also got kids and their future is important.

Doesn't have to be China like, South Korea have a good system. Also worth noting that the majority of Britons are in favor of things like CCTV/ID cards. The fact of the matter is most of the things that would/could be implemented from a technological point of view is already happening but instead of govt getting the data it's big tech - I imagine the vast majority of people don't turn off their location services on smart phones etc.

[topmarksbri]

17 minutes ago, DeanoL said:

a benevolent force in charge

The way to do it would be to brand it as NHS rather than UK government, as we know everyone loves the NHS. 

[Ozanne]

8 minutes ago, efcfanwirral said:

But you personally follow the rules in place because you know it's the right thing to do in a pandemic. You know why the rules are in place despite what the government says or does

So why is there an excuse for others not doing the same? For people just carrying on as normal? For people somehow being blindsided by lockdowns because they dont take any notice of the world around them ("the news depresses me" is one I've heard - tough shit its real life)? 

There are rules in place that, if followed correctly, would not lead to these numbers. How late they are shouldn't stop them being adhered to, nor make people just ignore even the reasons for the rules. Household mixing was banned in many places, but it clearly was happening. A lot, even before christmas considering the numbers we're seeing

For me just blaming the government gives a free pass to the stupidity and selfishness of huge parts of this country.

No it shouldn’t and there are some people that will not be following the rules. But it’s a generally accepted point that adherence to the rules started to fall with Cummings and the government’s response to that, they didn’t do enough then to keep people on side and as a result some started to get fed up.

Equally if we had a government that act quickly then some of the measures might not need to be as tough and as hard to follow. 

[MEGABOWL]

4 minutes ago, topmarksbri said:

Doesn't have to be China like, South Korea have a good system. Also worth noting that the majority of Britons are in favor of things like CCTV/ID cards. The fact of the matter is most of the things that would/could be implemented from a technological point of view is already happening but instead of govt getting the data it's big tech - I imagine the vast majority of people don't turn off their location services on smart phones etc.

You’d be surprised how many do turn things like Location, Bluetooth off. Turn it into Government surveillance and that will drop further. Same in a lot of Western Democracies-Germans are very anti-CCTV because they’ve experienced where it can lead. 

[aj6658]

20 minutes ago, eFestivals said:

I've not seen an single soul suggest that.

You say that but i work for one of the Big 4 and they said back in November that they expect social distancing to be a thing of the past by April. Albeit this was before the new strain and the massive spike but even then i thought that was wholly unrealistic but they have more data me. 

 

My personal thought it that if we can Vaccinate everyone over 50+ (first 8 at risk groups) i dont see why we need restrictions at that point - wouldn't 99% of hospitalisations be prevented at the point?  

[zahidf]

Assange wins his court case 

 

Edited January 4, 2021 by zahidf

[zahidf]

27 minutes ago, Toilet Duck said:

Howdy, Yep, it looks pretty good. They are doing both a 1 shot and a 2 shot trial, so not sure which one you are going on. It's very similar to the Oxford vaccine (uses an adenovirus vector to deliver the spike protein instructions). 

What's your take on this out of curiosity?

 

 

 

[squirrelarmy]

Not seen any actual links from the media yet but heard from two different sources that an announcement is coming this evening from Mr Floppy Hair predicting a lockdown. Normally it’s been leaked by now.

 

[topmarksbri]

2 minutes ago, MEGABOWL said:

You’d be surprised how many do turn things like Location, Bluetooth off. Turn it into Government surveillance and that will drop further. Same in a lot of Western Democracies-Germans are very anti-CCTV because they’ve experienced where it can lead. 

We're one of the most CCTV covered nations in the world and it barely gets a mention in most mainstream press. I'm not sure if we can find the data but my view is that most people are luddites when it comes to tech (especially those most at risk from Covid deaths/older people) and I would be surprised if more than 10% turned off location services etc. Obviously difficult to prove! 

[Fuzzy Afro]

Tier 4 potentially starting to work in London now. 

[Toilet Duck]

2 minutes ago, Chef said:

I think the point you make is just one of many reason why individuals may not be following the rules - others include seeing people around them not following rules so why should they, general lockdown fatigue, missing loved ones, social media conspiracy theories etc. but whatever the reason it is still going to be an issue if people do not do what is asked of them, and that's what needs to be looked at alongside all the other problems with government response, schools, sports, mixing etc. 

I think there's a few things at play really. Most of the modelling suggests about 70% of people need to follow the rules in order for the virus to be suppressed, and that's probably still reasonably close to the number of people who are trying to do the right thing. The problem is, people are getting infected while following the rules. Date-based relaxation of rules rather than saying we can relax things a bit when we have a specific level of infection in the community drives this (and that relaxation needs to be stepwise with the lowest risk things available first and a brake on the process should trends in the infection rate suggest it's being pushed too far...this was how we came out of wave 1, but appear to have abandoned that approach). Lots of people made their own risk assessment and thought, well, restaurants and bars are open for me to have a "socially distanced" meal with my friends and I can now do that in a COVID-safe manner. In reality, it's maybe "safer" than unrestricted mixing, but not completely "secure" (especially as there is no testing involved in actually allowing people to congregate). There's fairly straightforward trends in the infection data...when indoor mixing is restricted cases go down, when it's encouraged (or at least allowed), cases go up. But nobody is breaking the rules in doing so, it's the rules that are flawed (or when they are are applied more specifically). This happened throughout the US all year. Dates were given for when certain states would open back up and when they did so with community transmission still high, then cases exploded again (it's really not rocket science!). During the summer, we had low levels of community transmission (coupled with better overall immunity at that time of year and easier mixing outdoors amongst other things), so we were able to do some of the things we wanted to do, but in Winter, if community transmission isn't almost non-existent, then unfortunately, even following the rules (if the rules allow indoor mixing) will lead to more infections. Add in a massive increase in socialising over the Christmas period where we traditionally see more of each other and we have where we are now. Basically, infection levels were too high to open back up most of the things we did before Christmas, but we did anyway (even here where we had the lowest infection rates in Europe before we relaxed the restrictions, they were too high). It's easy to point the finger at those who are breaking the rules (and some clearly are), but I still think many are following them and still getting infected (obviously its easier to get infected by following the rules if others are paying no attention to them and keeping community transmission high, so there's a degree of blame there). 

[topmarksbri]

1 minute ago, Fuzzy Afro said:

Tier 4 potentially starting to work in London now. 

Might this indicate that xmas mixing not as bad as we thought it might be? We're presumably bang smack in the middle of when symptoms from that would start to show. Although I guess most people mixing for xmas would be people traveling outside of London. 

[steviewevie]

3 minutes ago, topmarksbri said:

We're one of the most CCTV covered nations in the world and it barely gets a mention in most mainstream press. I'm not sure if we can find the data but my view is that most people are luddites when it comes to tech (especially those most at risk from Covid deaths/older people) and I would be surprised if more than 10% turned off location services etc. Obviously difficult to prove! 

kind of turns me on that I'm being watched at all times.

[steviewevie]

 

[squirrelarmy]

2 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

kind of turns me on that I'm being watched at all times.

The opposite is true for a lot of people 😉