When will this shit end?

[eFestivals]

18 hours ago, Copperface said:

You've now edged away from 'all done at Easter' and closer to what I've always said.

I've pushed it back a little just because Sunak has recently pushed back furlough a little, and I've always said that crowd requirements might mess up the chance of (specifically) Glasto.

And anyway, when the situation changes, my view may also change. The situation has changed but your take is much the same. 

My take has been and is firmly based within the govts consistently-stated priority for dealing with covid. You take is giving them a priority they've never given themselves.

Which one of us is (most) right? We'll find out. 🙂 

 

18 hours ago, Copperface said:

For most of the population a great deal of normality will have returned by summer, but I can see crowd limits and some other generic control measures in both entertainment and sporting crowd contexts remaining until that 60-70% target has been achieved.

I can also 'see' that. It might happen.

Doesn't really look like it will tho. The govt has recently pushed crowd events down a path it wasn't pushing before, demonstrating a desire to get them up to capacity asap.

And those raving right tories aren't going to be held back after Easter.

 

18 hours ago, Copperface said:

To a lesser extent normal day to day generalised social distancing and mask wearing advice will be with us a a very long time

I don't disagree, but that doesn't mean that crowd events such as Glastonbury will be banned.

 

18 hours ago, Copperface said:

But what the general population might perceive to be 'almost nothing' restrictions will be anything but. Just because it doesn't affect them doesn't mean they are not in place.

If almost nothing is affecting the public, then almost nothing exists. 

[eFestivals]

On 12/17/2020 at 11:56 AM, ace56blaa said:

Prediction: Bristol will be back in Tier 3 numbers by the end of the month

ha! 😛 

[Homer]

Johnson to hold a press conference later this morning. Am sure he will be strong on specifics.

[eFestivals]

14 hours ago, Copperface said:

Hancock: We will be back to normal before 2022

a new thing.

If it's pushed my prediction back, it should have also pushed yours back, if your view is driven by the available info. 😛 

[eFestivals]

39 minutes ago, xxialac said:

Brexit is not over because of this.

Yup. Today the gammons are cheering.

They'll be screaming in just over a week when the kent queues need to use the Farage Garage again, and they'll be frothing at going thru the long queues when flying to Spain.

[xxialac]

As some chap said, the UK has lost virtually all influence in Europe, has lost much respect around the world, now has more red tape (including fewer incentives for bands to tour here) and weaker economic growth forecasts.

And the UK will eventually break up in return for losing the right for UK citizens to enjoy free movement in our own continent, in exchange for replacing EU workers (doing jobs the British don't want to do) with workers on visas from other parts of the world such as India and Turkey.

 

Slow hand clap. 
 

 

[Crazyfool01]

5 minutes ago, eFestivals said:

Yup. Today the gammons are cheering.

They'll be screaming in just over a week when the kent queues need to use the Farage Garage again, and they'll be frothing at going thru the long queues when flying to Spain.

Don’t know what the capacity is for this airport in terms of lorry’s but they are going to struggle to clear this backlog with testing before the next wave hits aren’t they .... ? It’s obviously a well planned operation though with facilities for the drivers ?! 

[Zoo Music Girl]

Any idea what time this Brexit press conference is going to be? I'm "working" today but only in the sense that I have to be on call for something related to the Brexit news so I have more than just the usual need to be informed!

[RobertProsineckisLighter]

21 minutes ago, crazyfool1 said:

Don’t know what the capacity is for this airport in terms of lorry’s but they are going to struggle to clear this backlog with testing before the next wave hits aren’t they .... ? It’s obviously a well planned operation though with facilities for the drivers ?! 

I'm pretty sure it's 4000. 

[Toilet Duck]

9 hours ago, Toilet Duck said:

There’s a chance the models are wrong and that the types of NPI we’ve been using up to now will keep a lid on things. We’ve seen competing models previously and they can’t all be correct! (I have my optimist hat on again!). It was always all on the vaccines at this stage anyway (or we see the original models out to their predicted end), so that hasn’t changed. Need to get a few more approved to hammer this. 

So, thought about these models overnight...wasn’t happy that any optimism I had was simply based on my hope they were wrong! So, I’ve thought of two things they don’t include in their model that are brighter than what they have included. Firstly, I don’t see a correction for a dwindling susceptible population (they kind of include it by modelling two different rates of vaccination, but they don’t adjust for the people that have or will catch the virus naturally and be just fine (and there’s lots of them))...they might, it could be an intrinsic part of their model (again, I don’t understand the maths), but if they do, they don’t explicitly describe it and it would help if they did! The other thing they don’t include is a property of the new variant that hasn’t been highlighted...all of the possible biological reasons they included were informed by the mutations that have been identified (some are predicted to increase viral binding, increase transmission, promote immune evasion etc, so that’s what they ran through their model)...but, they ignored the potential positive change that is also there (the deletion in ORF8 that could make the virus weaker). Amid the doom modelling, it would have been nice to see what the predictions look like if that alteration actually does lead to less severe disease. 
 

Anyway, happy Christmas all! Despite variants, spiralling cases and all the doom being peddled, in less than a year, we have 3 efficacious, safe vaccines and the end is coming, whether the virus likes it or not. That’s more than enough to be cheerful about, so eat, drink, laugh, and enjoy the weirdest Christmas we’ll have in our lifetimes, feck it, there will never be another one like it! 

[zahidf]

23 minutes ago, Toilet Duck said:

So, thought about these models overnight...wasn’t happy that any optimism I had was simply based on my hope they were wrong! So, I’ve thought of two things they don’t include in their model that are brighter than what they have included. Firstly, I don’t see a correction for a dwindling susceptible population (they kind of include it by modelling two different rates of vaccination, but they don’t adjust for the people that have or will catch the virus naturally and be just fine (and there’s lots of them))...they might, it could be an intrinsic part of their model (again, I don’t understand the maths), but if they do, they don’t explicitly describe it and it would help if they did! The other thing they don’t include is a property of the new variant that hasn’t been highlighted...all of the possible biological reasons they included were informed by the mutations that have been identified (some are predicted to increase viral binding, increase transmission, promote immune evasion etc, so that’s what they ran through their model)...but, they ignored the potential positive change that is also there (the deletion in ORF8 that could make the virus weaker). Amid the doom modelling, it would have been nice to see what the predictions look like if that alteration actually does lead to less severe disease. 
 

Anyway, happy Christmas all! Despite variants, spiralling cases and all the doom being peddled, in less than a year, we have 3 efficacious, safe vaccines and the end is coming, whether the virus likes it or not. That’s more than enough to be cheerful about, so eat, drink, laugh, and enjoy the weirdest Christmas we’ll have in our lifetimes, feck it, there will never be another one like it! 

Merry Xmas as well. Thanks for all the explanations for the science!

Edited December 24, 2020 by zahidf

[xxialac]

@Toilet Duck, you are a legend for translating the complex into something I can understand. Really appreciate your insights and Happy Christmas.

[oneeye]

This time next year....

[steviewevie]

26 minutes ago, Toilet Duck said:

So, thought about these models overnight...wasn’t happy that any optimism I had was simply based on my hope they were wrong! So, I’ve thought of two things they don’t include in their model that are brighter than what they have included. Firstly, I don’t see a correction for a dwindling susceptible population (they kind of include it by modelling two different rates of vaccination, but they don’t adjust for the people that have or will catch the virus naturally and be just fine (and there’s lots of them))...they might, it could be an intrinsic part of their model (again, I don’t understand the maths), but if they do, they don’t explicitly describe it and it would help if they did! The other thing they don’t include is a property of the new variant that hasn’t been highlighted...all of the possible biological reasons they included were informed by the mutations that have been identified (some are predicted to increase viral binding, increase transmission, promote immune evasion etc, so that’s what they ran through their model)...but, they ignored the potential positive change that is also there (the deletion in ORF8 that could make the virus weaker). Amid the doom modelling, it would have been nice to see what the predictions look like if that alteration actually does lead to less severe disease. 
 

Anyway, happy Christmas all! Despite variants, spiralling cases and all the doom being peddled, in less than a year, we have 3 efficacious, safe vaccines and the end is coming, whether the virus likes it or not. That’s more than enough to be cheerful about, so eat, drink, laugh, and enjoy the weirdest Christmas we’ll have in our lifetimes, feck it, there will never be another one like it! 

Happy Christmas Toilet (I can call you Toilet, right? or would you prefer Dr Duck?), Has been good to have someone almost as knowledgeable as me on here.

[Toilet Duck]

19 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

Happy Christmas Toilet (I can call you Toilet, right? or would you prefer Dr Duck?), Has been good to have someone almost as knowledgeable as me on here.

Ah, my mates call me Daz, so that’ll do just fine! (Never really been into the whole formal titles thing! None of my lab call me Prof). Not a very professorial moniker, but don’t think it’s going to ruin the illusion any more than being called Toilet! Happy Christmas! 

[DeanoL]

18 hours ago, Jack.194 said:

And just leave kids with nothing for the next six weeks?

I don’t disagree that schools need to close in some way, but you’re either suggesting no online or in-school learning for those 6 weeks, or you’re suggesting stripping teachers of 6 weeks of their holidays, which definitely wouldn’t go down well (and I’m speaking as a teacher!)

Not suggesting taking six weeks away, just moving them from summer to now. Won’t go down well I’m sure, but y’know global pandemic.

And while the argument that kids education is more important than stopping people dying holds some water, I am struggling with the idea that teachers’ summer holidays are more important than stopping people dying. Happy to hear the argument though!

[st dan]

Going to be funny when both the UK and the EU hold their own press conferences confirming details of the deal, and both will be adamant that they got the better side of the deal and was what they were after. 

[Chapple12345]

Who would cause such an increased use of the word?? 

[xxialac]

6 minutes ago, Chapple12345 said:

Who would cause such an increased use of the word?? 

Al, the ass...

[Crazyfool01]

9 minutes ago, Chapple12345 said:

Who would cause such an increased use of the word?? 

id say what rather than who .... something to do with a shit Government maybe ?

[balthazarstarbuck]

23 minutes ago, st dan said:

Going to be funny when both the UK and the EU hold their own press conferences confirming details of the deal, and both will be adamant that they got the better side of the deal and was what they were after. 

To be fair both sides winning what they feel is most important probably isn’t the worst thing in the world. Most good deals are win-win.

[xxialac]

4 minutes ago, balthazarstarbuck said:

To be fair both sides winning what they feel is most important probably isn’t the worst thing in the world. Most good deals are win-win.

We'll never know how they really feel about it.

More likely, given the weak negotiating position, the UK will say they won to quell rebellions inside the party and save face...

[Crazyfool01]

talks ongoing about the fish .... species by species .... we have 300 species in British waters ...... not sure we are going to get an announcement this morning ... unless they talk very fast .... 

[zahidf]

 

[xxialac]

1 minute ago, zahidf said:

 

Don't mean to sound a downer but against what benchmark is it 'impressive' to have inoculated less than three quarters of one percent of the population by now, given the urgency and the existing infrastructure?