When will this shit end?

[incident]

15 minutes ago, xxialac said:

UK government to ban travel from South Africa after new variant found

The UK government has implemented a travel ban on passengers arriving from South Africa after two cases of another new strain of Covid-19 was found in the UK, PA reports. Starting from 9 am on Christmas Eve, visitors arriving in England who have been in or transited through South Africa in the past 10 days will not be permitted entry, and direct flights will be banned, the Department for Transport said.

 

Wait. I thought that travel bans from a specific nation were unfair and vindictive?

[Guest]

6 minutes ago, Ryan1984 said:

The state of this front page. They just said on the paper reviews that all the front pages focus on this rather than the Tier 4 Fears news or the 700+ deaths announced today.

I hate this country.

[Gingerfish79]

If the Brexit media backs the deal, Boris won’t care what the ERG say. And, surely once the deal is agreed the ERG will have to change their name and find something else to blame all of their failings on.

[Toilet Duck]

24 minutes ago, Chef said:

Some more stuff @toiletduck might be able to understand. 

Crikey...unfortunately, I don’t understand the maths, so how they arrived at these models is outside my field of expertise, but they are the scariest models I’ve seen since this began (including the reasonable worst case presented at the start). These ones do use Google mobility data and surveys to adjust, so increased social contacts are built into them and don’t explain why this variant is expanding so rapidly (they also model the expansion of the other variants present to see which is expanding more rapidly). They see no difference in social contacts in areas where the variant is expanding compared to other variants, suggesting that it’s not a founder effect, but something else. To try to figure out what, they model increased transmissibility, increased susceptibility in children, faster reproduction of the virus and evasion of the immune response as possible reasons why this variant is outpacing others (all of which would have serious implications...increased susceptibility in children would impact on school closures, immune evasion would impact on vaccine use). Anyway, in their models, the only one that really predicted the growth seen was increased transmissibility (thank f*ck!)...they then layer on the impact of tier 1-4 restrictions and vaccine roll out at 200,000 per week (as now) or 2,000,000 per week (as hoped)...long and short of the models is that without the vaccine, we’d be screwed, tier 4 restrictions won’t cut it (massive peak in Spring in London and SE, summer in the rest of the UK). At 200,000 vaccinations per week, we’d still easily pass the fatality rate of 2020, so 2,000,000 per week needed to keep fatalities under 40,000 next year. 

Normally, at this point I tell you what’s wrong with the predictions, but honestly, the models are too complex for me to grasp, I’ve no idea how they did them, but I hope to Christ they are wrong! In the abstract, they suggest they we’ll need to close schools, universities, everything...the schools part doesn’t look entirely supported by their data though (especially primary schools), so that needs firming up. To end on the bright notes, immune evasion as the reason doesn’t fit their model very well, so the vaccines should still all be fine (and BioNTech have said they can adapt if we have to), and there’s still no evidence it causes more severe disease, it’s purely down to numbers infected. 
 

I’m gonna have a cup of tea after that. 

[Gingerfish79]

3 minutes ago, Toilet Duck said:

Crikey...unfortunately, I don’t understand the maths, so how they arrived at these models is outside my field of expertise, but they are the scariest models I’ve seen since this began (including the reasonable worst case presented at the start). These ones do use Google mobility data and surveys to adjust, so increased social contacts are built into them and don’t explain why this variant is expanding so rapidly (they also model the expansion of the other variants present to see which is expanding more rapidly). They see no difference in social contacts in areas where the variant is expanding compared to other variants, suggesting that it’s not a founder effect, but something else. To try to figure out what, they model increased transmissibility, increased susceptibility in children, faster reproduction of the virus and evasion of the immune response as possible reasons why this variant is outpacing others (all of which would have serious implications...increased susceptibility in children would impact on school closures, immune evasion would impact on vaccine use). Anyway, in their models, the only one that really predicted the growth seen was increased transmissibility (thank f*ck!)...they then layer on the impact of tier 1-4 restrictions and vaccine roll out at 200,000 per week (as now) or 2,000,000 per week (as hoped)...long and short of the models is that without the vaccine, we’d be screwed, tier 4 restrictions won’t cut it (massive peak in Spring in London and SE, summer in the rest of the UK). At 200,000 vaccinations per week, we’d still easily pass the fatality rate of 2020, so 2,000,000 per week needed to keep fatalities under 40,000 next year. 

Normally, at this point I tell you what’s wrong with the predictions, but honestly, the models are too complex for me to grasp, I’ve no idea how they did them, but I hope to Christ they are wrong! In the abstract, they suggest they we’ll need to close schools, universities, everything...the schools part doesn’t look entirely supported by their data though (especially primary schools), so that needs firming up. To end on the bright notes, immune evasion as the reason doesn’t fit their model very well, so the vaccines should still all be fine (and BioNTech have said they can adapt if we have to), and there’s still no evidence it causes more severe disease, it’s purely down to numbers infected. 
 

I’m gonna have a cup of tea after that. 

So basically we should all stay home and keep our fingers crossed?! Thanks for the analysis as always!

[steviewevie]

Harry Cole getting jizzing his pants...

 

[steviewevie]

going to have to get used to this shite...

[zahidf]

12 minutes ago, Toilet Duck said:

Crikey...unfortunately, I don’t understand the maths, so how they arrived at these models is outside my field of expertise, but they are the scariest models I’ve seen since this began (including the reasonable worst case presented at the start). These ones do use Google mobility data and surveys to adjust, so increased social contacts are built into them and don’t explain why this variant is expanding so rapidly (they also model the expansion of the other variants present to see which is expanding more rapidly). They see no difference in social contacts in areas where the variant is expanding compared to other variants, suggesting that it’s not a founder effect, but something else. To try to figure out what, they model increased transmissibility, increased susceptibility in children, faster reproduction of the virus and evasion of the immune response as possible reasons why this variant is outpacing others (all of which would have serious implications...increased susceptibility in children would impact on school closures, immune evasion would impact on vaccine use). Anyway, in their models, the only one that really predicted the growth seen was increased transmissibility (thank f*ck!)...they then layer on the impact of tier 1-4 restrictions and vaccine roll out at 200,000 per week (as now) or 2,000,000 per week (as hoped)...long and short of the models is that without the vaccine, we’d be screwed, tier 4 restrictions won’t cut it (massive peak in Spring in London and SE, summer in the rest of the UK). At 200,000 vaccinations per week, we’d still easily pass the fatality rate of 2020, so 2,000,000 per week needed to keep fatalities under 40,000 next year. 

Normally, at this point I tell you what’s wrong with the predictions, but honestly, the models are too complex for me to grasp, I’ve no idea how they did them, but I hope to Christ they are wrong! In the abstract, they suggest they we’ll need to close schools, universities, everything...the schools part doesn’t look entirely supported by their data though (especially primary schools), so that needs firming up. To end on the bright notes, immune evasion as the reason doesn’t fit their model very well, so the vaccines should still all be fine (and BioNTech have said they can adapt if we have to), and there’s still no evidence it causes more severe disease, it’s purely down to numbers infected. 
 

I’m gonna have a cup of tea after that. 

Ah nuts.  All on the vaccines now

[Guest]

5 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

going to have to get used to this shite...

It's a shame they don't feel the need to comment on the 700 deaths in the last 24 hours.

[waltere]

Fuck the ERG

[Toilet Duck]

8 minutes ago, zahidf said:

Ah nuts.  All on the vaccines now

There’s a chance the models are wrong and that the types of NPI we’ve been using up to now will keep a lid on things. We’ve seen competing models previously and they can’t all be correct! (I have my optimist hat on again!). It was always all on the vaccines at this stage anyway (or we see the original models out to their predicted end), so that hasn’t changed. Need to get a few more approved to hammer this. 

[philipsteak]

18 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

going to have to get used to this shite...

Nothing screams "cutting red tape" quite like a 2000 page trade agreement

[zahidf]

3 minutes ago, Toilet Duck said:

There’s a chance the models are wrong and that the types of NPI we’ve been using up to now will keep a lid on things. We’ve seen competing models previously and they can’t all be correct! (I have my optimist hat on again!). It was always all on the vaccines at this stage anyway (or we see the original models out to their predicted end), so that hasn’t changed. Need to get a few more approved to hammer this. 

Hopefully oxford gets done next week. They should close universities though and maybe have schools open later to let more people get vaccinated in the interim.

[Chef]

30 minutes ago, Toilet Duck said:

Crikey...unfortunately, I don’t understand the maths, so how they arrived at these models is outside my field of expertise, but they are the scariest models I’ve seen since this began (including the reasonable worst case presented at the start). These ones do use Google mobility data and surveys to adjust, so increased social contacts are built into them and don’t explain why this variant is expanding so rapidly (they also model the expansion of the other variants present to see which is expanding more rapidly). They see no difference in social contacts in areas where the variant is expanding compared to other variants, suggesting that it’s not a founder effect, but something else. To try to figure out what, they model increased transmissibility, increased susceptibility in children, faster reproduction of the virus and evasion of the immune response as possible reasons why this variant is outpacing others (all of which would have serious implications...increased susceptibility in children would impact on school closures, immune evasion would impact on vaccine use). Anyway, in their models, the only one that really predicted the growth seen was increased transmissibility (thank f*ck!)...they then layer on the impact of tier 1-4 restrictions and vaccine roll out at 200,000 per week (as now) or 2,000,000 per week (as hoped)...long and short of the models is that without the vaccine, we’d be screwed, tier 4 restrictions won’t cut it (massive peak in Spring in London and SE, summer in the rest of the UK). At 200,000 vaccinations per week, we’d still easily pass the fatality rate of 2020, so 2,000,000 per week needed to keep fatalities under 40,000 next year. 

Normally, at this point I tell you what’s wrong with the predictions, but honestly, the models are too complex for me to grasp, I’ve no idea how they did them, but I hope to Christ they are wrong! In the abstract, they suggest they we’ll need to close schools, universities, everything...the schools part doesn’t look entirely supported by their data though (especially primary schools), so that needs firming up. To end on the bright notes, immune evasion as the reason doesn’t fit their model very well, so the vaccines should still all be fine (and BioNTech have said they can adapt if we have to), and there’s still no evidence it causes more severe disease, it’s purely down to numbers infected. 
 

I’m gonna have a cup of tea after that. 

Jeez - wish I’d never asked! Thanks for the explanation as always. 

[xxialac]

So ZERO TARIFFS is the reason we should wet out pants.

Is that the best you've got?

FFS that's want the EU wanted for its goods - they hold a trade surplus, it's in their interest to have zero tariffs.

And as for 'journalist' Harry Cole, he is firmly up Johnson's backside and all so grimly incestuous given he used to be bonking Carrie Symonds.

 

[zahidf]

Evidence of 8 month plus immunity from reinfection at least

 

[jparx]

43 minutes ago, Ozanne said:

It's a shame they don't feel the need to comment on the 700 deaths in the last 24 hours.

Well the positive is now Brexit is done they’ve got nothing else to focus on other than covid. And it’s impossible to talk about covid without at least indirectly pointing out how shite the government have been.

[xxialac]

2 minutes ago, jparx said:

Well the positive is now Brexit is done they’ve got nothing else to focus on other than covid. And it’s impossible to talk about covid without at least indirectly pointing out how shite the government have been.

I don't know. They can now keep Brexit on the front pages for a good while, masking their cock ups.

Edited December 23, 2020 by xxialac

[Toilet Duck]

57 minutes ago, Gingerfish79 said:

So basically we should all stay home and keep our fingers crossed?! Thanks for the analysis as always!

No worries! Yeah, if you can lie low, that’d be what I’d be doing! We’ll get there, the vaccines were there clearest route out and they still are. 

[Gingerfish79]

I voted remain, I’ve argued with friends and family for years and I went on the protest marches. But at the last general election the battle was lost. From that moment, the ‘remain’ movement was playing the long game that could lead to the UK rejoining EU. This deal is so much worse than the one we had, but it’s still so much better than a catastrophic no-deal. With that in mind, I view the news today of a deal the first very tiny step towards that goal. The younger generations will not accept nationalism and isolation. The right-wing press will claim victory, turn the other cheek and look to the future.

[efcfanwirral]

1 hour ago, Gingerfish79 said:

I voted remain, I’ve argued with friends and family for years and I went on the protest marches. But at the last general election the battle was lost. From that moment, the ‘remain’ movement was playing the long game that could lead to the UK rejoining EU. This deal is so much worse than the one we had, but it’s still so much better than a catastrophic no-deal. With that in mind, I view the news today of a deal the first very tiny step towards that goal. The younger generations will not accept nationalism and isolation. The right-wing press will claim victory, turn the other cheek and look to the future.

Yep the most important thing for now was keeping essential goods flowing and protecting British livelihoods as much as possible. It sounds like this has happened 

[steviewevie]

8 hours ago, xxialac said:

So ZERO TARIFFS is the reason we should wet out pants.

Is that the best you've got?

FFS that's want the EU wanted for its goods - they hold a trade surplus, it's in their interest to have zero tariffs.

And as for 'journalist' Harry Cole, he is firmly up Johnson's backside and all so grimly incestuous given he used to be bonking Carrie Symonds.

 

well...it's what the brexiters wanted...they got the hard brexit they demanded (well probably got...not there yet!)

[ModernMan]

Feeling so low today. Ended up indulging in reading about these new variants and just full of anxiety now 😔

[steviewevie]

7 hours ago, Gingerfish79 said:

I voted remain, I’ve argued with friends and family for years and I went on the protest marches. But at the last general election the battle was lost. From that moment, the ‘remain’ movement was playing the long game that could lead to the UK rejoining EU. This deal is so much worse than the one we had, but it’s still so much better than a catastrophic no-deal. With that in mind, I view the news today of a deal the first very tiny step towards that goal. The younger generations will not accept nationalism and isolation. The right-wing press will claim victory, turn the other cheek and look to the future.

that's a nice way of looking at it...but I expect this is just the start...farage and co will find something else, immigration or death penalty or something. I expect we'll shift it a bit more towards US for a while...but europe is just there, can only avoid geography for so long.

Edited December 24, 2020 by steviewevie

[xxialac]

Brexit is not over because of this.

Brexit starts in 8 days time and can expect another decade of fuckwittery. God, I despise this needless act of self-sabotage. Drinks cabinet, come here my friend!