When will this shit end?

[Toilet Duck]

2 minutes ago, Ryan1984 said:

That all sounds brighter. Think we have a long winter ahead of us first!

Did you post something about vaccine trials finishing end of next month as well?

 

The FDA notification that they required 2 more months data before considering EUA for the Pfizer vaccine was submitted on 21st September. That makes 21st November the earliest they could authorise emergency use. Still depends on what the data looks like, but remains a possibility that we get some approvals before Christmas. 

[Leyrulion]

14 minutes ago, Toilet Duck said:

I’m still confident! Data on saliva tests starting to firm up now too. Good concordance with PCR when viral load is high, start to diverge when viral load dwindles. Feeling is that it’s a better indicator of infectiousness, that makes home testing a lot easier (though you can’t do them just after you brush your teeth!). There’s a lot of negative stuff floating around at the moment, even suggestions that a vaccine with 50% efficacy (which is probably where we will end up) is not enough to open back up. On that I disagree. The comparisons with flu aren’t accurate at the moment, but add a vaccine that offers at least some protection into the mix and the situations start to converge. Just can’t see society still shut down with mechanisms of control in our hands. Long COVID is the wild card on that front, need to understand more about it. But if levels in the community are reasonably under control next summer, there’s a vaccine with useable efficacy and there are rapid tests to reduce risk even further, then there’s no reason we can’t start doing things again.

The only thing not filling me with confidence is that I live where they're meant to be trialling the mass saliva testing and we haven't heard a thing about it since it was announced.

They might be effective but it's no good if they've no way of delivering it to the population. 

[efcfanwirral]

 

22 minutes ago, Zoo Music Girl said:

I spotted this as well. He was basically saying quite strongly that they are not going far enough. Guessing he was overruled.

Its perfect for the government - blame the local councils for not going far enough if it all goes wrong. 

It's mainly Labour areas - if they play it right they can make huge gains by making fools of the local councils. 

Hospitals overwhelmed and lots of deaths? You chose not to do enough

Close down businesses beyond the guidelines? You're responsible for the job losses. 

All hammered home with social media ads just before the next local elections

[Toilet Duck]

10 minutes ago, crazyfool1 said:

I love you ....  

ah look, it’s entirely possible we get thrown a curveball (possible that it works in our favour too mind you!), but at the moment, the next 6 months looks very promising.

[Crazyfool01]

Just now, Toilet Duck said:

ah look, it’s entirely possible we get thrown a curveball (possible that it works in our favour too mind you!), but at the moment, the next 6 months looks very promising.

so excuse the ignorance here .... once vaccinated presumably you would still be able to pass the virus on to others ? it just wouldn't hopefully have the same devastating effect on most people that it would have previously ? my concerns are around our government being able to screw everything up ... like they have until this point ....

[Toilet Duck]

3 minutes ago, Leyrulion said:

The only thing not filling me with confidence is that I live where they're meant to be trialling the mass saliva testing and we haven't heard a thing about it since it was announced.

They might be effective but it's no good if they've no way of delivering it to the population. 

Those are from two companies that have yet to bring a product to market. More established diagnostics companies already have working tests. Eventually, the government will give in and use the established tests (just like they gave up on Dyson making ventilators instead of hoovers!)...on the other hand, the novel tests could work and you’ll have successful British companies on the back of them. Either way, more rapid tests are coming in the near future (being used elsewhere). 

[efcfanwirral]

1 minute ago, Toilet Duck said:

Those are from two companies that have yet to bring a product to market. More established diagnostics companies already have working tests. Eventually, the government will give in and use the established tests (just like they gave up on Dyson making ventilators instead of hoovers!)...on the other hand, the novel tests could work and you’ll have successful British companies on the back of them. Either way, more rapid tests are coming in the near future (being used elsewhere). 

But those billions will never be returned if they don't work. Guess that's just how it goes with a right wing country! 

Your explanations do make me wonder if once Brexit is out the way and the virus can be successfully blamed for the economic effects, that they'll then move onto the proper saliva testing companies

[Ozanne]

56 minutes ago, Fuzzy Afro said:

Been doing some maths on rule of 6 vs rule of 12 at Christmas. @Ozanne particularly interested to get your thoughts

 

Let’s assume we get to Christmas week with roughly the same virus prevalence as now. 1 in 180 people in the UK. 
 

If people gather in groups of 6, there would be around 11m gatherings. In groups of 12, there would be 5.5m. This is very fag packet as many will choose to meet in different sized groups, but just wanted to prove a point. 
 

Assuming the prevalence of 1/180, we’d expect 1 in 30 groups of six to contain a spreader and 1 in 15 groups of 12.

 

Potential infection:

 

rule of six: 11m x (1/30) x 5 = 1.83m

 

rule of twelve: 5.5m x (1/15) x 11 = 4.03m

 

On these numbers it would be absolutely crazy to go to a rule of 12 on Christmas 

Yeah I still think allowing bigger groups at Christmas isn’t a good idea. 

[stuie]

32 minutes ago, Toilet Duck said:

I’m still confident! Data on saliva tests starting to firm up now too. Good concordance with PCR when viral load is high, start to diverge when viral load dwindles. Feeling is that it’s a better indicator of infectiousness, that makes home testing a lot easier (though you can’t do them just after you brush your teeth!). There’s a lot of negative stuff floating around at the moment, even suggestions that a vaccine with 50% efficacy (which is probably where we will end up) is not enough to open back up. On that I disagree. The comparisons with flu aren’t accurate at the moment, but add a vaccine that offers at least some protection into the mix and the situations start to converge. Just can’t see society still shut down with mechanisms of control in our hands. Long COVID is the wild card on that front, need to understand more about it. But if levels in the community are reasonably under control next summer, there’s a vaccine with useable efficacy and there are rapid tests to reduce risk even further, then there’s no reason we can’t start doing things again.

What a lovely positive post! 
 

😍

[Crazyfool01]

Thanks PM trending on twitter @Zoo Music Girl and @Ozanne it wasnt just you 

 

[gigpusher]

2 minutes ago, Ozanne said:

Yeah I still think allowing bigger groups at Christmas isn’t a good idea. 

I'll be honest if we're not in a good enough spot, not only is it not a good idea it just isn't fair. If people were forced to cancel Eid plans last minute then it's not fair to allow something different for Christmas. 

[Fuzzy Afro]

1 minute ago, gigpusher said:

I'll be honest if we're not in a good enough spot, not only is it not a good idea it just isn't fair. If people were forced to cancel Eid plans last minute then it's not fair to allow something different for Christmas. 

The eid thing was a bit of a joke tbf 

[Toilet Duck]

1 minute ago, crazyfool1 said:

so excuse the ignorance here .... once vaccinated presumably you would still be able to pass the virus on to others ? it just wouldn't hopefully have the same devastating effect on most people that it would have previously ? my concerns are around our government being able to screw everything up ... like they have until this point ....

If the vaccine provides sterilising immunity, it would protect you from getting infected at all (and thus infecting others). This is possible, the measles vaccine pretty much provides this, but it’s considered unlikely. The next scenario is that it reduces transmission somewhat, still allows infection to spread a bit, but protects against severe disease. This would be a good result, especially if it protects against disease in the high risk population. This is what most of the vaccine makers are aiming for. The last useable scenario is that it has little impact on transmission, but it still protects against severe disease. This would still change how we manage things, but has some more risks associated with it, especially if it’s not overly protective in older populations (basically, if it works as well as the flu vaccine we should be fine). Some of the vaccine makers are now looking at alternative ways of delivering the vaccine (nasal delivery like the flu vaccine we have for kids). That has a better shot of reducing transmission as it jump starts the mucosal immunity, which is our first line of defence, so expect evolution of the vaccine after these first ones!

[gigpusher]

Just now, Fuzzy Afro said:

The eid thing was a bit of a joke tbf 

It was spiteful and cruel in my opinion. Don't get me wrong the rule of 6 would mean we wouldn't be able to see most family over Christmas if it stays but at least we can prepare in advance for it. If they did what they did with Eid on Christmas Eve nobody would adhere to it. 

[FestivalJamie]

1 hour ago, Ozanne said:

Glad you had a good day mate, long may it continue. 
 

I see Boris is getting ready to blame local leaders for any future rises as they won’t ‘implement’ tier 3.

I know seems like a bit of a train wreck incoming to me

[Toilet Duck]

9 minutes ago, efcfanwirral said:

But those billions will never be returned if they don't work. Guess that's just how it goes with a right wing country! 

Your explanations do make me wonder if once Brexit is out the way and the virus can be successfully blamed for the economic effects, that they'll then move onto the proper saliva testing companies

Actually, looking at the way government procurement has been run during the pandemic, it’s pretty clear why the Tories are so in favour of Brexit and don’t want anything to do with EU level playing field rules (otherwise all this stuff would have to go out to tender and EU companies could bid for it)...

[JoeyT]

 

[Crazyfool01]

3 minutes ago, Toilet Duck said:

If the vaccine provides sterilising immunity, it would protect you from getting infected at all (and thus infecting others). This is possible, the measles vaccine pretty much provides this, but it’s considered unlikely. The next scenario is that it reduces transmission somewhat, still allows infection to spread a bit, but protects against severe disease. This would be a good result, especially if it protects against disease in the high risk population. This is what most of the vaccine makers are aiming for. The last useable scenario is that it has little impact on transmission, but it still protects against severe disease. This would still change how we manage things, but has some more risks associated with it, especially if it’s not overly protective in older populations (basically, if it works as well as the flu vaccine we should be fine). Some of the vaccine makers are now looking at alternative ways of delivering the vaccine (nasal delivery like the flu vaccine we have for kids). That has a better shot of reducing transmission as it jump starts the mucosal immunity, which is our first line of defence, so expect evolution of the vaccine after these first ones!

Thanks TD  

[Crazyfool01]

1 minute ago, JoeyT said:

 

These are the things I can do without  

[shoptildrop]

1 hour ago, steviewevie said:

 

It so they can blame the local councils who dared to be vocal IMO

[st dan]

Just played my last game of outdoor 5 a side for who knows how long. Really saddened me more than I thought it would. 

[Fuzzy Afro]

5 minutes ago, st dan said:

Just played my last game of outdoor 5 a side for who knows how long. Really saddened me more than I thought it would. 

5 a side is banned now? 

[RobertProsineckisLighter]

Just now, Fuzzy Afro said:

5 a side is banned now? 

Tier three - no mixing of households indoors or outdoors.

[Toilet Duck]

14 minutes ago, crazyfool1 said:

Thanks TD  

Most welcome! 🙂

[Ozanne]

SAGE advised on measures which should be introduced immediately on Sept 21st. Boris Johnson rejected nearly all of these. We need a new Government.

Edited October 12, 2020 by Ozanne