When will this shit end?

[efcfanwirral]

If this is the case then not easing is possibly the least of our worries 

[Ozanne]

2 minutes ago, Chapple12345 said:

https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-young-people-step-forward-for-coronavirus-vaccine-in-record-numbers-12328655
Almost as if young people willingly want to take the vaccine?? Funny that 

I never understood why some people claimed the youngest wouldn’t go for it. Regardless it’s great to see a high amount of bookings. 

[Ozanne]

Just now, efcfanwirral said:

If this is the case then not easing is possibly the least of our worries 

This is just one element of why we are in a precarious position right now, it’s not great. 

[Ozanne]

 

[Fuzzy Afro]

5 minutes ago, efcfanwirral said:

If this is the case then not easing is possibly the least of our worries 

What do you mean by that? 

[JoeyT]

 

[Chapple12345]

2 minutes ago, Ozanne said:

I never understood why some people claimed the youngest wouldn’t go for it. Regardless it’s great to see a high amount of bookings. 

Me neither, the way young people have been patronised and scapegoated throughout has been awful imo. Sorry to go all 'woe is me' but we've lost months and months of socialising and making memories, many of my friends educations has been messed up and around and many young people work in sectors that have been worst effected like hospitality. Of course we want to help the situation which is why demand for vaccines has been so high 

[Ryan1984]

6 minutes ago, Ozanne said:

I never understood why some people claimed the youngest wouldn’t go for it. Regardless it’s great to see a high amount of bookings. 

Doesn’t fit the Tory narrative of blaming the young/‘woke’ etc.

[efcfanwirral]

4 minutes ago, Fuzzy Afro said:

What do you mean by that? 

I mean unfortunately if we're scared and talking about delays at a mere 5,000 per day, and a projection that is looking potentially accurate is that we could start hitting 50,000 per day in a month, at what point do they start panicking and reversing things if it continues that way?

I want to see them hold their nerve but after them being blamed for acting too late before I'm worried about their reaction

Edited June 9, 2021 by efcfanwirral

[philipsteak]

1 hour ago, DeanoL said:

I'll be really interested to see what happens to pubs when we open up fully. My prediction is that around half will go back to full capacity and half will stick to table service and booking, maybe with tables a bit closer together. And I think that after the initial rush, the second half will get more business - because why go to the "dangerous" pub when you can go to the "safe" one as long as you book in advance. 

 

I don't think they will get more business. In my place it's been really hard work to get people to sit at a table and accept table service. It just doesn't seem to register with them. A lot of Brits just don't seem to like it. And even with more business, the second half will need to put their prices up as serving people that way just costs more to do and you have less capacity. So price rises will put people off.

We've just had our initial P&L report for May and it isn't pretty. It's been insanely busy, as busy as we could be, operating at capacity for most of the day, most days.  We took less than we otherwise would have done, and it cost us a lot more to do. Without big price rises this is just unsustainable. And it's killing the staff. And talking to friends in the industry, everyone is in the same boat

[Ozanne]

2 minutes ago, Chapple12345 said:

Me neither, the way young people have been patronised and scapegoated throughout has been awful imo. Sorry to go all 'woe is me' but we've lost months and months of socialising and making memories, many of my friends educations has been messed up and around and many young people work in sectors that have been worst effected like hospitality. Of course we want to help the situation which is why demand for vaccines has been so high 

There’s no ‘woe is me’ there, everyone’s issues are relative to them. I understand where you are coming from even though it hasn’t impacted me in that way. It was always a very unfair narrative pushed on a group of people that have sacrificed a lot to help the older generation. I’m very glad to see it’s completely baseless. 

[Fuzzy Afro]

Just now, efcfanwirral said:

I mean unfortunately if we're scared and talking about delays at a mere 5,000 per day, and a projection that is looking potentially accurate is that we could start hitting 50,000 per day in a month, at what point do they start panicking and reversing things? 

I want to see them hold their nerve but after them being blamed for acting too late before I'm worried about their reaction

Remember 2 key points here.

 

Firstly, that’s a graph of what will happen if the R stays at 1.55 in perpetuity. Assuming that current levels of mixing continue going forward then the R will reduce (because hundreds of thousands of people are removed from the virus’s pool or potential hosts either by catching it or getting jabbed)

 

Secondly and perhaps more importantly, it’s not clear yet what the vaccines will do to the relationship between cases and deaths. Remember that people catching the virus and testing positive is NOT an inherently bad thing. The main reason is was problematic last year was because it was an early warning sign that we’d see a lot of deaths a few weeks down the line. That link may well have been reduced now so we need to not see 50,000 cases as inherently problematic. It’s just a number. 

[efcfanwirral]

I would be interested to see how many of these cases are people who feel ill and are going for a test for that reason, and how many are asymptomatic and finding it through routine work testing or even just doing their twice weekly free tests. 

Not saying it'll make a huge difference immediately BUT if it's the latter, it could help us decide what to do in future months after vaccination rollout 

Edited June 9, 2021 by efcfanwirral

[efcfanwirral]

1 minute ago, Fuzzy Afro said:

Remember 2 key points here.

 

Firstly, that’s a graph of what will happen if the R stays at 1.55 in perpetuity. Assuming that current levels of mixing continue going forward then the R will reduce (because hundreds of thousands of people are removed from the virus’s pool or potential hosts either by catching it or getting jabbed)

 

Secondly and perhaps more importantly, it’s not clear yet what the vaccines will do to the relationship between cases and deaths. Remember that people catching the virus and testing positive is NOT an inherently bad thing. The main reason is was problematic last year was because it was an early warning sign that we’d see a lot of deaths a few weeks down the line. That link may well have been reduced now so we need to not see 50,000 cases as inherently problematic. It’s just a number. 

I agree completely on point 2, which is why I want to see the government hold its nerve. 

But do we trust them to with so much pressure? I definitely don't 

[balthazarstarbuck]

8 minutes ago, Ozanne said:

 

Clutching at straws but the occupancy not rising at the same rate as admissions is a silver lining and promising for the vaccines effectiveness. 

Rest of the stats are a bin fire. 

[Ozanne]

Just now, efcfanwirral said:

I agree completely on point 2, which is why I want to see the government hold its nerve. 

But do we trust them to with so much pressure? I definitely don't 

What Fuzzy Afro says isn’t true, on that graph R changes with the input of new data which is 3 days old to account for the delay in all specimen data being added. Look at the previous tweets and R was 1.4 the other day. 

[Ozanne]

Vaccination update:

[Fuzzy Afro]

1 minute ago, efcfanwirral said:

I agree completely on point 2, which is why I want to see the government hold its nerve. 

But do we trust them to with so much pressure? I definitely don't 

There is very little pressure. Even fake SAGE are calling for a delay and extra mitigations like face masks in school, more limits on international travel and support to people self-isolating rather than a reversal of step 3 or worse.

 

I don’t think we’ll see any serious discussion of banning indoor mixing until a point comes where hospitalisations start to run out of hand. 

[DeanoL]

25 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

If cases get high enough then get to unvaccinated could still get a lot of death.

Not just them, but the vaccinated will get a lot of death too. It's not 100% effective. But all we can do is give them the best possible care they can get, and so the best chance of survival. We shouldn't be optionally going into a situation like in March and December when care had to be rationed.

4 minutes ago, philipsteak said:

I don't think they will get more business. In my place it's been really hard work to get people to sit at a table and accept table service. It just doesn't seem to register with them. A lot of Brits just don't seem to like it. And even with more business, the second half will need to put their prices up as serving people that way just costs more to do and you have less capacity. So price rises will put people off.

You're mostly catering to a younger crowd right? I think it's true a lot of Brits want a busy pub where they can stand at the bar but being in my late 30s I'm hearing a lot of friends saying they like the table service, and knowing you'll have somewhere to sit these days. I feel similar - knowing I'll be able to get a seat in a pub beats out the inconvenience of having to book in advance. I can just about still manage to stand up all night, but it's something I'm willing to do for gigs, not a trip to the pub.

How busy has it been up there this week? We're on the southern edge of the Lakes at the moment and it's quietened down this week but trying to decide whether to brave heading in over the weekend!

[jimmillen]

4 minutes ago, philipsteak said:

I don't think they will get more business. In my place it's been really hard work to get people to sit at a table and accept table service. It just doesn't seem to register with them. A lot of Brits just don't seem to like it. And even with more business, the second half will need to put their prices up as serving people that way just costs more to do and you have less capacity. So price rises will put people off.

We've just had our initial P&L report for May and it isn't pretty. It's been insanely busy, as busy as we could be, operating at capacity for most of the day, most days.  We took less than we otherwise would have done, and it cost us a lot more to do. Without big price rises this is just unsustainable. And it's killing the staff. And talking to friends in the industry, everyone is in the same boat

I've not worked in hospitality for a very long time, but looking at pubs, bars & restaurants these days it really does seem how well they're dealing with operating under COVID restrictions depends very much on what "sort" of venue they are.

The pubs and bars that were always more about boozing, late nights, rammed 6 deep at the bar etc, are clearly going to be hurting. Whereas venues with more of a dining element - and particularly those with lots of space! - maybe are finding it easier to make ends meet...

A mate runs a club and bar and has adapted to run the club as a table service venue - he's using all the dancefloor space for tables and has also put up a massive open tent for tables in what was the service area and car park at the back. He reckons whilst it's certainly not back up to pre-COVID levels of business or profitability, it's doing better than breaking even and they could keep going indefinitely if they had to.

Personally, I'm at a stage in life where I actually prefer table service, app ordering etc. over having to get my elbows out at the bar 😂 But I wouldn't have thought the same 15 years ago, and I totally get why owners of venues that can't be adapted to this hate it.

[balthazarstarbuck]

7 minutes ago, Fuzzy Afro said:

Remember 2 key points here.

 

Firstly, that’s a graph of what will happen if the R stays at 1.55 in perpetuity. Assuming that current levels of mixing continue going forward then the R will reduce (because hundreds of thousands of people are removed from the virus’s pool or potential hosts either by catching it or getting jabbed)

 

Secondly and perhaps more importantly, it’s not clear yet what the vaccines will do to the relationship between cases and deaths. Remember that people catching the virus and testing positive is NOT an inherently bad thing. The main reason is was problematic last year was because it was an early warning sign that we’d see a lot of deaths a few weeks down the line. That link may well have been reduced now so we need to not see 50,000 cases as inherently problematic. It’s just a number. 

First point is an exercise in faith. There is a moment where there’ll be enough jabbed that the number is going to decrease. And I’m sure we’re pretty close. The ONS numbers today tell us that much. But we’re not there yet. 
 

Second point- still pretty consistently 1 in 20 positive tests are being hospitalised, that’s been constant for around 2 months. If we got to 50,000 daily cases that would be around 2,500 daily admissions. To me, that would be too many. 

 

 

[philipsteak]

1 minute ago, DeanoL said:

Not just them, but the vaccinated will get a lot of death too. It's not 100% effective. But all we can do is give them the best possible care they can get, and so the best chance of survival. We shouldn't be optionally going into a situation like in March and December when care had to be rationed.

You're mostly catering to a younger crowd right? I think it's true a lot of Brits want a busy pub where they can stand at the bar but being in my late 30s I'm hearing a lot of friends saying they like the table service, and knowing you'll have somewhere to sit these days. I feel similar - knowing I'll be able to get a seat in a pub beats out the inconvenience of having to book in advance. I can just about still manage to stand up all night, but it's something I'm willing to do for gigs, not a trip to the pub.

How busy has it been up there this week? We're on the southern edge of the Lakes at the moment and it's quietened down this week but trying to decide whether to brave heading in over the weekend!

Not particularly young. We're a youth hostel (with bar) but that doesn't translate to young customers. Pretty broad cross section. If anything leaning slightly older. And we are open to non-residents so the usual (if there is such a thing) lake district visitor. And of course last week, lots of families. But like I said, it's not just that. Financially it just doesn't work.

Still really busy. Has dropped off slightly. Roads are still busy but not as bad as they were. I think I've driven my van twice since 17th May. You could often walk quicker. 

It's the Great North Swim this weekend so I'd avoid Windermere/Bowness/Ambleside if I were you. Unfortunately I don't have that choice

[Radiochicken]

28 minutes ago, efcfanwirral said:

If this is the case then not easing is possibly the least of our worries 

I mean a straight line is never fun to look at context free, but surely a model would say it would curve back and run out of steam before then a la what’s been happening in Bolton.

[Ozanne]

4 minutes ago, Radiochicken said:

I mean a straight line is never fun to look at context free, but surely a model would say it would curve back and run out of steam before then a la what’s been happening in Bolton.

It’s not really context free, there’s no guarantee what happened in Bolton will happen now we are into step 3. Cases are currently rising dramatically is all we can say currently and it’s starting to filter through to hospital admissions. This guy was very accurate back in the Autumn so it’s concerning to see him flag up similar concerns now. 

[Ayrshire Chris]

Just read that the chief executive of NHS has tweeted that the demand for booking vaccinations in the 25 to 29 age group today was comparable to the  rush for Glastonbury festival tickets!  F5 for a jab!