When will this shit end?

[Ozanne]

2 minutes ago, zahidf said:

Absolutely not on pushing step 3 back. Was wrong at the time and probably wrong now.

So if we do get the vaccine numbers in, regardless of case numbers, you'd agree with dropping all restrictions on that timetable?

I wouldn’t say yes for certain but in theory with more and more 2 dosed the data should be better in 4-5 weeks if it is then yes drop most restrictions keeping baseline level restrictions in place such as masks and WFH for a while to monitor the data further.  

[stuartbert two hats]

5 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

yeah, really. I mean...there are options...test and trace and close borders like elsewhere, but would mean some pretty strict lockdowns first, and then stop all travel abroad, and then locally lockdown and trace any cases if detected...would the public accept that?!

I think people have proved to be much more resilient than they are often given credit for. If were just starting the rollout now, then we'd still be under lockdown and people would be accepting it.

[zahidf]

3 minutes ago, Ozanne said:

I wouldn’t say yes for certain but in theory with more and more 2 dosed the data should be better in 4-5 weeks if it is then yes drop most restrictions keeping baseline level restrictions in place such as masks and WFH for a while to monitor the data further.  

I'd say a 2 week delay rather than 4-5, but I'm fine with WFH and masks be the absolute baseline controls going forward.

 

[st dan]

We really need to see data from hospital discharges too. Just because we are going to see a steady incline in admissions, so would be good to see the complete picture. 

[steviewevie]

5 minutes ago, zahidf said:

Sounds like more dither and faff then. So we may as well stick to June 21st

I guess he could say we'll definitely open up when all adults have been offered a vaccine or 80% have received 2 doses or something, make that the cut off....and then if anyone dies after that tough shit because we need to crack one off.

[zahidf]

From the times.

[Fuzzy Afro]

1 minute ago, zahidf said:

If that's the case, let's use the spare AZN and drop the under 40 ban

 

They're going to really struggle to get the uptake in younger age groups but I think there's a pretty strong argument for opening up the AZ to anyone who's not had a first dose now.

 

The way I see it, we have three choices at hand here:

 

1. Delay the reopening for at least 4 weeks, but likely looking at a much longer delay if we stick to mRNA only in the younger groups, or at very least we'd need to keep face coverings, WFH and social distancing until the autumn. Downside of this approach is that it's bad for the economy and an absolute travesty for civil liberties.

 

2. Go ahead with the reopening on 21st June (or after a short delay) and accept a sizeable exit wave. Downside of this approach is that you could see another 10,000 deaths and the NHS under pressure.

 

3. Open up the AZ to younger age groups and get it fired into arms ASAP, then get the restrictions lifted within weeks. The downside of this is that you will see some blood clots, but they're so rare that it might be a worthwhile gamble to sacrifice a few lives in order to be able to open the economy without a large exit wave.

 

Option 3 is the least-worst option IMO but good luck persuading the younger age groups to be the sacrificial lambs here. They're queuing up in their hundreds of thousands for the Pfizer and Moderna but not sure if the Oxford/AZ vaccine is a toxic brand now. 

 

 

[BobWillis2]

As cases rise the risk/reward of using AZ will continuously decrease so I could definitely see a change on that front. 
 

The issue is the impact it might have on uptake. 
 

 

[zahidf]

3 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

I guess he could say we'll definitely open up when all adults have been offered a vaccine or 80% have received 2 doses or something, make that the cut off....and then if anyone dies after that tough shit because we need to crack one off.

That's fine then. If they link it to when they open it up to all over 18s or a percentage of double.dosed people, then at least we will know rather than be at the whims of cases or boffins. And we can have a go at the govt at any delays to jabs

[stuartbert two hats]

11 minutes ago, zahidf said:

If that's the case, let's use the spare AZN and drop the under 40 ban

The problem with AZ is that it's so damn slow compared to the mRNA. If we could finally get a decent amount of Moderna, that would help out massively.

[zahidf]

1 minute ago, stuartbert two hats said:

The problem with AZ is that it's so damn slow compared to the mRNA. If we could finally get a decent amount of Moderna, that would help out massively.

Production wise? We have around 4/5 million on storage we aren't using....

[dotdash79]

3 minutes ago, Fuzzy Afro said:

3. Open up the AZ to younger age groups and get it fired into arms ASAP, then get the restrictions lifted within weeks. The downside of this is that you will see some blood clots, but they're so rare that it might be a worthwhile gamble to sacrifice a few lives in order to be able to open the economy without a large exit wave.

When they were going through the risk around clots they did different outcomes based on the prevalence of covid in the community. The higher the prevalence the more it pushed the balance in giving the Oxford 

[zahidf]

 

[Crazyfool01]

13 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

that's ok though, right? There's only a finite amount of the stuff.

No point having vaccinators trained up  and not doing a job … wasted resource get the jabs in … I thought by now we would have more than enough … something is causing delays somewhere ? 

[zahidf]

[steviewevie]

3 minutes ago, zahidf said:

 

Biden is going to sort Boris out good and proper.

[Ryan1984]

Just now, zahidf said:

I know this is the Covid thread but that top-line article. They really won’t give that couple a break!

[Ozanne]

12 minutes ago, st dan said:

We really need to see data from hospital discharges too. Just because we are going to see a steady incline in admissions, so would be good to see the complete picture. 

You can get that from NHS England’s website. 

[steviewevie]

Just now, Ryan1984 said:

I know this is the Covid thread but that top-line article. They really won’t give that couple a break!

Shit paper for shit people.

[steviewevie]

5 minutes ago, crazyfool1 said:

No point having vaccinators trained up  and not doing a job … wasted resource get the jabs in … I thought by now we would have more than enough … something is causing delays somewhere ? 

we need them all in Manc land...plague city.

[Fuzzy Afro]

5 minutes ago, dotdash79 said:

When they were going through the risk around clots they did different outcomes based on the prevalence of covid in the community. The higher the prevalence the more it pushed the balance in giving the Oxford 

 

This makes perfect sense IMO. No one is saying that if it's a straight choice between getting covid or getting the AZ you should choose to get covid rather than the AZ, but just that when prevalence of the virus is very low, it's preferable to wait a few weeks until one of the mRNA options is available.

 

The higher the prevalence gets, the more urgent it becomes to get jabs in arms. In my view that necessitates us using our huge batch of Oxford/AZ vaccines on anyone we can find to take them. The issue is convincing people that it's safe.

[Ozanne]

4 minutes ago, zahidf said:

2 of the 3 of those have no impact on June 21st going ahead or not. 

[aj6658]

12 minutes ago, Fuzzy Afro said:

 

They're going to really struggle to get the uptake in younger age groups but I think there's a pretty strong argument for opening up the AZ to anyone who's not had a first dose now.

 

The way I see it, we have three choices at hand here:

 

1. Delay the reopening for at least 4 weeks, but likely looking at a much longer delay if we stick to mRNA only in the younger groups, or at very least we'd need to keep face coverings, WFH and social distancing until the autumn. Downside of this approach is that it's bad for the economy and an absolute travesty for civil liberties.

 

2. Go ahead with the reopening on 21st June (or after a short delay) and accept a sizeable exit wave. Downside of this approach is that you could see another 10,000 deaths and the NHS under pressure.

 

3. Open up the AZ to younger age groups and get it fired into arms ASAP, then get the restrictions lifted within weeks. The downside of this is that you will see some blood clots, but they're so rare that it might be a worthwhile gamble to sacrifice a few lives in order to be able to open the economy without a large exit wave.

 

Option 3 is the least-worst option IMO but good luck persuading the younger age groups to be the sacrificial lambs here. They're queuing up in their hundreds of thousands for the Pfizer and Moderna but not sure if the Oxford/AZ vaccine is a toxic brand now. 

 

 

Think point 1 is where alot of issues are gonna arise -  We've gone from 21st June -> 2 week delay -> We'll be still doing this in autumn -> Need boosters first -> Spring 22

Never understand the AZ ban - The article I read said 168 cases of blood clots after 21.2 million doses = 0.00079% https://medicalxpress.com/news/2021-04-uk-deaths-clots-az-jabs.html

 

I got my vaccine next week and I will happily take AZ and I guarantee you most young people would.

 

 

[stuartbert two hats]

16 minutes ago, zahidf said:

Production wise? We have around 4/5 million on storage we aren't using....

No, I meant AZ is slow to kick in. It takes 8-12 weeks to get full protection, much slower than Pfizer.

[Fuzzy Afro]

5 minutes ago, aj6658 said:

Think point 1 is where alot of issues are gonna arise -  We've gone from 21st June -> 2 week delay -> We'll be still doing this in autumn -> Need boosters first -> Spring 22

Never understand the AZ ban - The article I read said 168 cases of blood clots after 21.2 million doses = 0.00079% https://medicalxpress.com/news/2021-04-uk-deaths-clots-az-jabs.html

 

I got my vaccine next week and I will happily take AZ and I guarantee you most young people would.

 

 

Two doses is sufficient to push R below 1 (it'll happen much quicker than we think. 80% have antibodies already and getting to 85%-90% will kill the Indian variant). I don't think there's any prospect of serious restrictions during the booster rollout unless yet another variant emerges that can escape even two doses.