When will this shit end?

[RobertProsineckisLighter]

@FestivalJamie revisiting yesterday discussion on 'local' I decided to scratch an itch I have and I've currently got a job running to tell me how many properties classified as residential aren't within 3 miles (the example) of a 'chain supermarket'. 

The methodology is as follows: 

1. Filter the circa 33million addresses in the UK by its classification type. I've used Residential Dwelling. So for the example of a tower block this will count each of the units in the tower block not just the block. The data in using is the most complete and accurate in class. 

2. I've used the best available data to apply a 3mile buffer to each of the 7800 ish "Chain supermarkets" in the UK. I've then 'dissolved' these and aggregated them into one effectively I've created a polygon showing where in GB is within 3 miles of a 'chain supermarket'. The aggregation is purely for simplicity leading to a performance increase in step 3. 

3. The subset of data from step 1 has its spatial relationship tested with the geometry from step 2. 

This will then tell me how many properties are within 3 mikes (as the crow flies) of a supermarket and how many households would starve if such a restriction was out in place. 

Of the almost 4,991,602 properties currently tested 83,816 are going to be hungry. 

Obviously there are some limitations to this approach not least that you don't have to shop at a chain supermarket but it's the easiest method I have avalaible to me without going to too much effort. Same by not using a network (Roads) but again this is too much effort and I don't have the computing power to do that at home (or at work) without expense. 

Tomorrow I'm going to run the same analysis against access points to publically accessable greenspace - taken from this data. 

https://www.ordnancesurvey.co.uk/business-government/products/open-map-greenspace 

Thank you for giving making me wonder how many properties aren't within 3 miles of a supermarket and filling 30 minutes of another boring day in lockdown! 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Ozanne]

15 minutes ago, efcfanwirral said:

Some do yes but not everyone that currently is - so many offices full for example.

And harsher lockdowns have kept it from getting to this mental level, now we're here we need to do more.

I don't mean no transmission but if we did a stay at home order apart from those who definitely need to be out, with a clearly defined list and not "work from home unless you cant" then we could actually get to a level that is manageable 

As it is, there will be no NHS in London and the south east in a couple of weeks for at least a few weeks after that. There has to be more to be done

I don’t think the government are willing to do anymore to be honest. I don’t know what they would do if hospitals got any worse, they’ve kind of boxed themselves into this position now. 

[hodgey123]

2 minutes ago, Ozanne said:

I don’t think the government are willing to do anymore to be honest. I don’t know what they would do if hospitals got any worse, they’ve kind of boxed themselves into this position now. 

I'm not sure about this. They have been releasing the more detailed and serious ad campaigns over the last 24 hours and I think if the cases continued to spiral at the rate they are, or they did not see any noticeable signs of slowed growth in say 2 weeks after this lockdown should have had an effect, they will be forced to act. I don't know what that would be - there have been many suggestions in this thread which all make sense - but I don't think even they could just sit and twiddle their thumbs and ignore it...

[Toilet Duck]

50 minutes ago, stuartbert two hats said:

I wish I actually knew about biotech. I just had an idea about a transmissible vaccine - a virus that kills viruses. So a harmless virus that still self replicates and will pass from person to person, and stimulates the immune system in such a way that it provides protection against other viruses.  It would be a hypothetical way to rapidly protect an entire population without jabbing everyone, and could even work on animal populations, allowing us to eradicate even those virus that have animal reservoirs. Something something mRNA something.

Sadly, it's almost certainly completely impossible and I need to stop listening to biotech podcasts and getting ideas above my station. If I had to guess, I'd say the "harmless" and "replicating+self transmissible" parts don't really go together.  What do you think @Toilet Duck, should I lay off the crack pipe?

 

Alas, all viruses are is a bit of genetic material, wrapped up in some protein and in some cases with a wee layer of fat around them. The objective is to get into your cells and use the machinery there to make more of themselves. So, until they are in your cell, they are pretty inert. The bit that lets them get into our cells is also the bit that our immune system mostly recognises, so if you wanted a magic bullet virus that would end up generating an immune response to all other viruses, it would need to have all the things our immune system recognised about them which would mean it could most likely infect every cell all the other viruses do. It’s a nice idea, but magic bullets have been sought for all sorts of diseases and we’ve yet to find one that works! We don’t even have a universal flu vaccine yet (something Sarah Gilbert was actually working on!...the new genetic vaccines might be the answer to that). The steps forward this year in vaccine technology are a big deal though and have far reaching consequences for dealing with all sorts of diseases we’ve previously struggled with. They likely won’t work for everything, but malaria vaccines, cancer vaccines, better Ebola vaccines and a whole host more look attainable now. 
 

Edit: that being said, new developments in biotech continually astound me, so who knows! 

Edited January 9, 2021 by Toilet Duck

[The other Bellboy]

23 minutes ago, efcfanwirral said:

Some do yes but not everyone that currently is - so many offices full for example.

And harsher lockdowns have kept it from getting to this mental level, now we're here we need to do more.

I don't mean no transmission but if we did a stay at home order apart from those who definitely need to be out, with a clearly defined list and not "work from home unless you cant" then we could actually get to a level that is manageable 

As it is, there will be no NHS in London and the south east in a couple of weeks for at least a few weeks after that. There has to be more to be done

I know where i used to work that when lockdown 1 came in they set up accommodation in the control room so that all the essential workers could be fully contained within a bubble, they isolated from family and of course no need to travel. The job needed to be secure and it shows there is more that can always be done if required. There is a cost to this but it is possible to reduce transmission / the risk of transmission further than is currently being done.

Here in NZ during the higher levels of lockdown they limited both the distance too and type of exercise acivities for the very reason that any accidents would not only mean people would have to interact but also any emeregncy services / facilities that were used would reduce what was available for Covid care.

[stuartbert two hats]

4 minutes ago, Toilet Duck said:

Alas, all viruses are is a bit of genetic material, wrapped up in some protein and in some cases with a wee layer of fat around them. The objective is to get into your cells and use the machinery there to make more of themselves. So, until they are in your cell, they are pretty inert. The bit that lets them get into our cells is also the bit that our immune system mostly recognises, so if you wanted a magic bullet virus that would end up generating an immune response to all other viruses, it would need to have all the things our immune system recognised about them which would mean it could most likely infect every cell all the other viruses do. It’s a nice idea, but magic bullets have been sought for all sorts of diseases and we’ve yet to find one that works! We don’t even have a universal flu vaccine yet (something Sarah Gilbert was actually working on!...the new genetic vaccines might be the answer to that). The steps forward this year in vaccine technology are a big deal though and have far reaching consequences for dealing with all sorts of diseases we’ve previously struggled with. They likely won’t work for everything, but malaria vaccines, cancer vaccines, better Ebola vaccines and a whole host more look attainable now. 

Not all other viruses, just one (other than itself).  But I want it to transmit itself and be harmless.  A self propagating vaccine, using a virus as the delivery mechanism.

[Toilet Duck]

2 minutes ago, stuartbert two hats said:

Not all other viruses, just one (other than itself).  But I want it to transmit itself and be harmless.  A self propagating vaccine, using a virus as the delivery mechanism.

Ie, the Oxford vaccine! 

Edit: sorry, meant to say a replication competent version of it...

edit again: one of the reasons replication incompetent versions of viruses are used is so that they don’t spread. You’d basically be introducing a genetically engineered microorganism into the the entire population. If we know anything about viruses, it’s that they mutate. So the possibility of it acquiring a change that could make it pathogenic would make it too risky.

Edited January 9, 2021 by Toilet Duck

[alanr]

2 hours ago, efcfanwirral said:

 

 

 

Her next tweet said this also. I'm amazed that in our "free market enterprising economy" that we haven't had an online ordering company starting up that goes to do people's supermarket shopping for them when isolating (or even go to the local farm shop etc - basically whatever they need while isolating) . Bypassing the delivery slots issue. Lots of problems but then there are with all businesses. You'd especially think the deniers would be all over this...

It's so easy to say that everthing can be solved with an app. What about the people who do not have Internet access? ( the same as have problems with home education). Also anyone whom does not have the credit rating to do online payments. It is too easy to forget that far too many in our society live in poverty and are excluded from what most consider as basic rights. 

 

[priest17]

9 minutes ago, Toilet Duck said:

Ie, the Oxford vaccine! 

Edit: sorry, meant to say a replication competent version of it...

edit again: one of the reasons replication incompetent versions of viruses are used is so that they don’t spread. You’d basically be introducing a genetically engineered microorganism into the the entire population. If we know anything about viruses, it’s that they mutate. So the possibility of it acquiring a change that could make it pathogenic would make it too risky.

[shoptildrop]

Seen this?? The fuckers!!

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/uk-visa-free-work-musicians-eu-brexit-b1784600.html

[efcfanwirral]

2 minutes ago, shoptildrop said:

Seen this?? The fuckers!!

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/uk-visa-free-work-musicians-eu-brexit-b1784600.html

Does make you think about whether it's all coming back as it was regardless of covid. They have an ideology and live music is not part of it. 

Same as freelancing (which is linked)- the excluded uk thing shows that they would, for whatever reason, prefer less self employed people 

[El Matador]

51 minutes ago, efcfanwirral said:

Some do yes but not everyone that currently is - so many offices full for example.

Is there evidence for that? 

I have to go into my office in Central London some days and everywhere around there is deserted. 

[Ryan1984]

9 minutes ago, shoptildrop said:

Seen this?? The fuckers!!

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/uk-visa-free-work-musicians-eu-brexit-b1784600.html

Unforgivable. The frustrating thing here is that this is one area where we can claim to be ‘world-beating’.

[efcfanwirral]

8 minutes ago, El Matador said:

Is there evidence for that? 

I have to go into my office in Central London some days and everywhere around there is deserted. 

I (indirectly) know of 2 - most of those who are going in want to because they're bored at home...

[efcfanwirral]

Agree with this assessment...

[Crazyfool01]

Does anyone follow @avds  on twitter ? I’m starting to see some green for my area over the last few days on there ? Does he report figures ahead of the bbc and others ? All I’m seeing on other sites is those nasty red numbers 

[zahidf]

Some heroes

 

[stuartbert two hats]

1 hour ago, Toilet Duck said:

Ie, the Oxford vaccine! 

Edit: sorry, meant to say a replication competent version of it...

edit again: one of the reasons replication incompetent versions of viruses are used is so that they don’t spread. You’d basically be introducing a genetically engineered microorganism into the the entire population. If we know anything about viruses, it’s that they mutate. So the possibility of it acquiring a change that could make it pathogenic would make it too risky.

So it can be done, it's just a really bad idea?

[Quark]

1 hour ago, Toilet Duck said:

Alas, all viruses are is a bit of genetic material, wrapped up in some protein and in some cases with a wee layer of fat around them.

You've basically described people as well

[stuartbert two hats]

12 minutes ago, Quark said:

You've basically described people as well

Some of us have a bit more than a "wee layer" of fat.

[Toilet Duck]

31 minutes ago, Quark said:

You've basically described people as well

True! 

[Toilet Duck]

41 minutes ago, stuartbert two hats said:

So it can be done, it's just a really bad idea?

Oh yes, they actually had to take the self-replicating part out of the virus they used for the Oxford and J&J jabs. We use replication incompetent viruses in the lab all the time to engineer human cells (modified HIV viruses to be precise, because they integrate into human DNA and permanently alter it). Have to be very careful with them (so we break them up into different pieces and only combine them when we want to put them into a cell). We use the viruses they made the Oxford vaccine out of as well, but they don’t infect everything, so if your cell of interest doesn’t have the receptor for them, you have to engineer that as well and it’s a bit of a pain in the arse. 
 

edit: read that back and realised I sound a bit like Churchill...oh yes. 

Edited January 9, 2021 by Toilet Duck

[steviewevie]

[steviewevie]

[stuartbert two hats]

4 minutes ago, Toilet Duck said:

Oh yes, they actually had to take the self-replicating part out of the virus they used for the Oxford and J&J jabs. We use replication incompetent viruses in the lab all the time to engineer human cells (modified HIV viruses to be precise, because they integrate into human DNA and permanently alter it). Have to be very careful with them (so we break them up into different pieces and only combine them when we want to put them into a cell). We use the viruses they made the Oxford vaccine out of as well, but they don’t infect everything, so if your cell of interest doesn’t have the receptor for them, you have to engineer that as well and it’s a bit of a pain in the arse. 
 

edit: read that back and realised I sound a bit like Churchill...oh yes. 

If you didn't take the self-replicating part out, would that mean it would make you sick? Or is that largely unrelated?