When will this shit end?

[zahidf]

3 minutes ago, Radiochicken said:

100 crew on a Navy ship infected despite being double jabs. Wonder if this is a kinda natural experiment that backs up @Toilet Duck’s point we may be overestimating the vaccines effect on stopping transmission? 

Being in an enclosed spaces like a Navy ship for months is probably going to get you infected, no matter what the infection reductions by vaccines

[Matt42]

5 minutes ago, Radiochicken said:

100 crew on a Navy ship infected despite being double jabs. Wonder if this is a kinda natural experiment that backs up @Toilet Duck’s point we may be overestimating the vaccines effect on stopping transmission? 

Vaccine denialism is the new vogue 

[FloorFiller]

16 minutes ago, MrBarry465 said:

What exactly are you moaning about?

We are moving ahead with most if not all restrictions lifted, still with huge case numbers. Which specific elements of 'freedom day' aren't up to you loft standards? 

‘mUh FrEeDoMs!!!’

[fraybentos1]

11 minutes ago, slumberjack said:

Not a massive difference in my opinion based on the figures below.  You may disagree.  

Partly vaccinated: Netherlands = 26%, UK = 16%

Fully vaccinated: Netherlands = 39%, UK = 51%

Total: Netherlands = 65%, UK = 67%

Source: https://ourworldindata.org/

That is a pretty misleading way of looking at things. You can't really add them up and compare totals it doesn't make sense. Especially with Delta and the fact 2 doses is even more important. 39v51 is the main thing to look at. A sizeable difference.

[MrBarry465]

2 minutes ago, fraybentos1 said:

That is a pretty misleading way of looking at things. You can't really add them up and compare totals it doesn't make sense. Especially with Delta and the fact 2 doses is even more important. 39v51 is the main thing to look at. A sizeable difference.

It makes little difference, we still have 50% of the population not jully jabbed.

Expecting a totally different outcome to what happened in the Nethelands (due to a 10% difference) is naive. Our cases will be through the roof next week after the clubs open and thats clear as day. 

[Supernintendo Chalmers]

3 minutes ago, Matt42 said:

Vaccine denialism is the new vogue 

I have recent and current first hand experience of how the vaccines seem to be working...to an extent. It's definitely not preventing catching it but it definitely softens the blow if and when you do. There's an air of inevitability that at some point we'll all catch it and those who have been vaccinated stand a better chance of lessening the impact. So I don't deny that they work but I would dispel any myths that they protect you from catching the virus. But has this been the message all along? I genuinely can't remember!

[MrBarry465]

3 minutes ago, Supernintendo Chalmers said:

I have recent and current first hand experience of how the vaccines seem to be working...to an extent. It's definitely not preventing catching it but it definitely softens the blow if and when you do. There's an air of inevitability that at some point we'll all catch it and those who have been vaccinated stand a better chance of lessening the impact. So I don't deny that they work but I would dispel any myths that they protect you from catching the virus. But has this been the message all along? I genuinely can't remember!

I feel like when the vaccines first started circulating they were heralded as the nail in the coffin and did in fact break transmission and your chances of catching it.

Doesn't look to be the case now.

[Havors]

15 minutes ago, Radiochicken said:

100 crew on a Navy ship infected despite being double jabs. Wonder if this is a kinda natural experiment that backs up @Toilet Duck’s point we may be overestimating the vaccines effect on stopping transmission? 

Using a bit of an outlier there. 100 crew tightly packed on a ship living with each other does not equate to normal everyday civy life. And reduction in transmission is exacerbated in real life because we don't spend that much time up close and personal with a lot of people. This is why most transmission is at home. 

The vaccine does not prevent you from getting the virus, as toilet duck has said. Give the virus enough of a chance though and it will still infect you. The benefit comes in how it helps your body get rid of it. 

[kalifire]

10 hours ago, crazyfool1 said:

Maybe because as you have said lots of people aren’t wearing them … so yeah that would make them pretty ineffective … or people not wearing them correctly ? Perhaps the govt should have given clear advice 

That's the key issue, really. 'Masks don't work because they're inherently ineffective' is simply not correct, but 'masks don't work because not enough people wear them or wear them properly' certainly is.

So the government can either give up because what's the point if half the country don't follow their advice, or mandate masks in a workable manner (e.g. enclosed space where it's bound to be crowded, like public transport and supermarkets). Only one of those options represents responsible governance.

[Zoo Music Girl]

8 minutes ago, Supernintendo Chalmers said:

I have recent and current first hand experience of how the vaccines seem to be working...to an extent. It's definitely not preventing catching it but it definitely softens the blow if and when you do. There's an air of inevitability that at some point we'll all catch it and those who have been vaccinated stand a better chance of lessening the impact. So I don't deny that they work but I would dispel any myths that they protect you from catching the virus. But has this been the message all along? I genuinely can't remember!

 

4 minutes ago, MrBarry465 said:

I feel like when the vaccines first started circulating they were heralded as the nail in the coffin and did in fact break transmission and your chances of catching it.

Doesn't look to be the case now.

I could be wrong but my expectation was that transmission would be reduced more than it seems to be in the real world. Which is a shame. On a personal level it makes me a bit worried about a couple of immunocompromised people in my life, one of whom is in and out of hospital all the time currently. The next few months are going to be a bit anxiety inducing for me for that reason. But I do understand you can't stop society forever, it's just going to be a bit of an uncertain and worrying time.

I'm pleased Sadik has taken action on the transport issue. Seems such a no brainer to me. I expect less compliance still, though.

[Fuzzy Afro]

Ideologically I don’t have much of an issue with face covering mandates (I do have an issue with mask mandates, but we’ve never had those in the UK)

 

I do just think that large parts of society really overrate their importance though. Sebastian Payne seems to genuinely think mask wearing is the difference between a fourth lockdown or not, that’s just pie in the sky nonsense given the current case trajectory. 

[slumberjack]

13 minutes ago, fraybentos1 said:

That is a pretty misleading way of looking at things. You can't really add them up and compare totals it doesn't make sense. Especially with Delta and the fact 2 doses is even more important. 39v51 is the main thing to look at. A sizeable difference.

That's why I said they may disagree, it's subjective.  Not for a moment suggesting you're wrong, jus that in my opinion, 12% isn't a massive difference.  

I only shared these as someone commented that UK v NL wasn't a like for like comparison.  I agree that this is a fair comment but thought it would be good to look at the figures for context.  

[Hannibal Schmitt]

11 minutes ago, fraybentos1 said:

That is a pretty misleading way of looking at things. You can't really add them up and compare totals it doesn't make sense. Especially with Delta and the fact 2 doses is even more important. 39v51 is the main thing to look at. A sizeable difference.

That cases are rising now in whole Europe is clear as mud. But would be interesting to see the age groups vaccinated in comparison. Also interesting will be if the vaccination shields will hold against delta, even with not that high level of vaccination. Austria has 42, so also not that far away from that all and cases on the rise (from around 100 last week to over 300 today, still low levels but you can see the trend). But the approach toward the coming delta wave is quite similar to the UK which are already in the wave, say "if not open up now, then you will never to open up anyway" and "the virus will be with us for the next couple of years, so we have to open up now" even with experts and scientists warning about the consequences.

[Zoo Music Girl]

Is there much delta in the Netherlands? Is that partly causing the spike?

[Toilet Duck]

19 minutes ago, Matt42 said:

Vaccine denialism is the new vogue 

Jaysus Matt you do come out with some corkers! 😁 understanding how vaccines work is not denialism (assuming they are a force field is incorrect though). My point all along is that they have good effectiveness at stopping infections when we have other measures in place that also reduce our chances of getting infected. Cram us all into gigs or clubs again and the odds of picking it up increase, even when double jabbed. The key thing here is that (as per the navy boat in question), infections that otherwise might have had serious consequences, instead lead to mild or asymptomatic cases (they won’t always, some people will still get sick, end up in hospital and even die, but not in numbers anywhere close to what would happen if unvaccinated). Far from denialism, the vaccines work incredibly well and I still think that they end this, just with greater coverage than we currently have.

[Radiochicken]

26 minutes ago, Matt42 said:

Vaccine denialism is the new vogue 

Didn’t mean it to come across that way 😂

Vaccines FTW! 

[Hannibal Schmitt]

1 minute ago, Zoo Music Girl said:

Is there much delta in the Netherlands? Is that partly causing the spike?

I`m sure there is. Here it makes 70-80 percent of all cases now and this with not so much sequencing.

We already have clusters of dutch tourists with delta brought into the country.

Also I assume that the delta in Europe has been faster than expected, so many experts say it here.

[MrBarry465]

9 minutes ago, Fuzzy Afro said:

Ideologically I don’t have much of an issue with face covering mandates (I do have an issue with mask mandates, but we’ve never had those in the UK)

 

I do just think that large parts of society really overrate their importance though. Sebastian Payne seems to genuinely think mask wearing is the difference between a fourth lockdown or not, that’s just pie in the sky nonsense given the current case trajectory. 

To me it's always been not the masks themselves solely but the additional level of sensibility it installs in people.

COVID is still absolutely circulating in massive numbers and I feel people should still behave in a way that reflects this to some degree. Removing masks indicates to people that it literally doesn't matter anymore, which is not the case. 

[fraybentos1]

19 minutes ago, MrBarry465 said:

It makes little difference, we still have 50% of the population not jully jabbed.

Expecting a totally different outcome to what happened in the Nethelands (due to a 10% difference) is naive. Our cases will be through the roof next week after the clubs open and thats clear as day. 

12% difference in fully vaccinated will defo make a difference to health outcomes, that doesn't make me naive to say that.

Also I assume we have a higher level of natural immunity than there due to our previous big waves. Regardless, they have already said cases are gonna get very big. It's about whether those translate to pressure on the NHS that is the issue.

[FloorFiller]

1 minute ago, MrBarry465 said:

To me it's always been not the masks themselves solely but the additional level of sensibility it installs in people.

COVID is still absolutely circulating in massive numbers and I feel people should still behave in a way that reflects this to some degree. Removing masks indicates to people that it literally doesn't matter anymore, which is not the case. 

Yep. Granted there were a lot of people who’ve fucked masks off already, but this whole ‘freedom day’ schtick and the flip flopping on masks being kept around has really led to a lot of people who would’ve otherwise kept wearing them just thinking ‘fuck it’. We should’ve always been approaching the 19th with the tone of ‘we still need to be wary’ rather than ‘that’s it guys, pandemic over, let’s go fucking mental!’

[MrBarry465]

1 minute ago, FloorFiller said:

Yep. Granted there were a lot of people who’ve fucked masks off already, but this whole ‘freedom day’ schtick and the flip flopping on masks being kept around has really led to a lot of people who would’ve otherwise kept wearing them just thinking ‘fuck it’. We should’ve always been approaching the 19th with the tone of ‘we still need to be wary’ rather than ‘that’s it guys, pandemic over, let’s go fucking mental!’

Yeah agreed. 

I just think next week turns into a shit show and the tories are suddenly now realising that as well.

[RossTC]

Day 3 since my positive test and i can confirm i feel absolutely awful. No smell, bad cough and fever and headaches that come and go with the wind. Im single jabbed 6 weeks ago and someone who just doesn't get ill. Don't take it lightly, its still out there with quite the bite on it.

[slumberjack]

8 minutes ago, fraybentos1 said:

12% difference in fully vaccinated will defo make a difference to health outcomes, that doesn't make me naive to say that.

Also I assume we have a higher level of natural immunity than there due to our previous big waves. Regardless, they have already said cases are gonna get very big. It's about whether those translate to pressure on the NHS that is the issue.

So how many more infections have we had in the UK compared to Netherlands? What figures are you comparing? According to our world in data, Netherlands have had 103,000 cases per 100,000 in total compared to 76,000 in the UK.  

Not disagreeing with you, just trying to establish what your comment regarding natural immunity is based on. 

Agree on your comment regarding NHS BTW.  

Edited July 14, 2021 by slumberjack

[MrBarry465]

2 minutes ago, RossTC said:

Day 3 since my positive test and i can confirm i feel absolutely awful. No smell, bad cough and fever and headaches that come and go with the wind. Im single jabbed 6 weeks ago and someone who just doesn't get ill. Don't take it lightly, its still out there with quite the bite on it.

Yup, all the best mate.

Most people I know who have caught it around my age recently (30's) have been totally rocked by it....

[efcfanwirral]

1 hour ago, steviewevie said:

Hospitality to get the blame, screwing them long term. Its a shame so many need full capacity to survive, if all of them were able to stick two fingers up to the government's "reopening" and keep measures as they are now, then they wouldn't be able to be blamed.

24 minutes ago, MrBarry465 said:

I feel like when the vaccines first started circulating they were heralded as the nail in the coffin and did in fact break transmission and your chances of catching it.

Doesn't look to be the case now.

You know what i distinctly remember the scientists in the briefings being cautious and saying something along the lines of "if a vaccine reduces severity this will be a big win" and basically said what @Toilet Duck says that it won't fully get rid of transmission but if it does at a certain percentage that's really good.

But then the politicians and the media jumped on the early case drops correlating with rollout and declared them this magic bullet to eliminate the virus. But we were in lockdown at the time so the transmission reduction seems to have corrected itself towards the original estimates, which were always said to be good and better than we could hope for. I've been basing my own opinions on those early things that were said so haven't been hugely surprised by the infected and symptomatic double jabbed people. 

The media and politicians getting carried away...sounds familiar!