Weather

[whisty]

It's looking at being the hottest Solstice day since 2010. Maybe an omen.

[Glastonlocal]

Thanks for wind info and jokes (i asked mainly for the jokes) :-).

Oh what a lovely day. Would be a perfect Glastonbury day. Oh well, such is life.

[JBarbour]

BBC says sunshine and showers http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/2648559

Metcheck agrees http://m.metcheck.com/UK/7days.asp?zipcode=Glastonbury&locationID=57455&lat=51.1&lon=-2.7&findtype=

weather.com says sunny spells all weekend except for showers on Friday http://uk.weather.com/weather/10day/Glastonbury+SOM+United+Kingdom+UKXX1641:1:UK

and accuweather say showers up until Saturday, dry Sunday

http://uk.weather.com/weather/10day/Glastonbury+SOM+United+Kingdom+UKXX1641:1:UK

In short, prepare for everything!!

Thanks.

But you need Pilton not Glastonbury

[fur_q]

The models have all taken a slight turn for the worse this morning, not terrible but a little worse than yesterday, but I think we need to wait for a few more runs to see if its a trend or a blip.

[swede]

Without reading through all, can I just ask to the regular posters....wellies or no wellies?

Always bring willies not matter what. I always change into them when I arrive no matter the weather, hoping walking in with them on is the only time over the weekend I have to wear them for an extended period of time.

[dingbat2]

Always bring willies not matter what. I always change into them when I arrive no matter the weather, hoping walking in with them on is the only time over the weekend I have to wear them for an extended period of time.

I always bring my willy with me. Unfortunately I am not lucky enough to have more than one

[keeno]

Is this the weather or gay meet thread?

[frostypaw]

Soggy biscuit?

[swede]

I always bring my willy with me. Unfortunately I am not lucky enough to have more than one

Haha, bloody auto correct on this phone is ridiculous sometimes

[keeno]

Smartphones now a days adapt to what you type most often, just saying.

[sparkythetortoise]

I have a practical question for the various weather gurus on here:

It looks like its going to rain, but that these will be modest showers. What I don't get a sense of if how to translate mm fall into practical inconvenience. Anywhere from 1 to 5mm seems such a tiny amount to me, I can't see it affecting the ground, but its never fun to stand out in the rain.

My question is - how long does a moderate shower go on to account for 1mm of rain on the ground? If 1mm falls in a moderate shower in ten minutes, say, then even 6mm is only one hour of the day raining - and that might even be in the night. Doesn't seem so bad to me. Not an exact science, I know, but is there the possibility of getting a sense of scale?

And where do you go to see these modest rainfall estimates? I've read lots of numbers bandied about here, but is there a primary, most reliable source?

Cheers

[richroet]

I think what we gave learnt from this thread is that there is no such thing as a primary most reliable source

[Wooderson]

Is Jackoff still on the fence?

[frostypaw]

My question is - how long does a moderate shower go on to account for 1mm of rain on the ground? If 1mm falls in a moderate shower in ten minutes, say, then even 6mm is only one hour of the day raining - and that might even be in the night. Doesn't seem so bad to me. Not an exact science, I know, but is there the possibility of getting a sense of scale?

I don't think you're going to like this answer very much I'm afraid... but i'll do my best

it could be a twenty second belter or half an hours incredibly slow drizzle that evaporates before it hits the ground - the forecasts are more of what will fall rather than what will affect the ground unfortunately as there are too many other factors as you get closer to the surface. i'd bet you've heard of London having it's own microclimate for example

but you're right it doesn't seem so bad so far. the horrible thing to see is sustained rain - single peaks often means showers and they could miss you entirely, just be fluff or be quite heavy in spots. one example of shower type is when there's talk of convective weather that's when an area of potential rainfall churns itself up and turns into spots of heavy rain, but there's plenty more and it only becomes at all clear very close to the time

[math125]

From wiki:

Rainfall intensity is classified according to the rate of precipitation:

• Light rain — when the precipitation rate is < 2.5 mm (0.098 in) per hour
• Moderate rain — when the precipitation rate is between 2.5 mm (0.098 in) - 7.6 mm (0.30 in) or 10 mm (0.39 in) per hour
• Heavy rain — when the precipitation rate is > 7.6 mm (0.30 in) per hour, or between 10 mm (0.39 in) and 50 mm (2.0 in) per hour
• Violent rain — when the precipitation rate is > 50 mm (2.0 in) per hour

[**claire**]

F**ck Team Norway

[offmytrolley]

(Precautionary) wellies, or waterproof to the ankle walking boots?

We're not going to get up to the shins puddles are we?

Edited June 21, 2014 by offmytrolley

[tumbles]

(Precautionary) wellies or waterproof to the ankle walking boots?

We're not going to get up to the shins puddles are we?

At the moment it could get muddy but it'll dry quickly. I'd personally take both and leave the wellies in the car or lockup..

Still to early though, it's going to change another 4-5 times between now and Weds

[marktea]

Only just started on this thread (which I have followed avidly in years past) as the rollercoaster of ups and downs from hour to hour forecasts gets crazy. Or should I say, I get crazy! Even now we are only just getting into proper forecasting range, so plenty of time for things to change.

For me the best news is that we have good weather / high pressure / dry ground established now and the only question is whether and by how much things will change. Having it the other way round with fronts piling in from the west and looking for a break in the weather is MUCH worse.

And as a very general rule, the forecasts do seem to find it difficult to forecast the break up of stable high pressure accurately. That's not to say it won't happen, but I'm still very happy to be in the position we are in right now with less than a week to go.

[GlastoSimon]

Not that impressed by the increased rainfall predictions on Netweather...

Having said that, I'd much rather be in this situation fearing change for the worse than hoping for change for the better a la 2011.

EDIT: Surprised at Jackone's summary too, given that generally the forecasts have gotten worse.

Edited June 21, 2014 by GlastoSimon

[Gnomicide]

Most predictions now going with minimal rainfall. Accuweather has 'a passing shower' most days but sunshine on Sunday. Most of the rain is showing as being at night.

[The Nal]

We all know a Glastonbury "shower" can absolutely destroy the place in 30 minutes. Its happened most years. One bad shower and we're in for 24 hours of mud. And if rains again within that 24 period, even light rain, its 48 hours of mud.

The fact theres rain forecast at all is horrific news for all of us. Really, really bad. From experience, the weather is always much much worse than the forecast suggests.

See Wednesday morning 2011 for further details. That was forecast as a "shower".

Edited June 21, 2014 by The Nal

[Winslow Leach]

We all know a Glastonbury "shower" can absolutely destroy the place in 30 minutes. Its happened most years. One bad shower and we're in for 24 hours of mud. And if rains again within that 24 period, even light rain, its 48 hours of mud.

The fact theres rain forecast at all is horrific news for all of us. Really, really bad. From experience, the weather is always much much worse than the forecast suggests.

See Wednesday morning 2011 for further details. That was forecast as a "shower".

Nice try Nal.

[offmytrolley]

We all know a Glastonbury "shower" can absolutely destroy the place in 30 minutes. Its happened most years. One bad shower and we're in for 24 hours of mud. And if rains again within that 24 period, even light rain, its 48 hours of mud.

The fact theres rain forecast at all is horrific news for all of us. Really, really bad. From experience, the weather is always much much worse than the forecast suggests.

Gets me (for a split second) every time - I need to start paying more attention to usernames before reading a post!

[Yesiamaduck]

Most predictions now going with minimal rainfall. Accuweather has 'a passing shower' most days but sunshine on Sunday. Most of the rain is showing as being at night.

Gone up to 20mm rain over the weekend booooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo