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Showing content with the highest reputation since 04/02/2020 in all areas

  1. 14 points
    @Zoo Music Girl@Deaf Nobby Burton...Yes, basically the post a while ago was about how influenza is pretty much built to mutate frequently, but coronaviruses aren't. All analysis so far suggests that this one is also pretty stable, so if and when we have a vaccine for it, it should last for years, rather than needing a new one every year. As it stands, the suggestion that this one is or has mutated into new forms that are more or less "aggressive" isn't supported by any firm data. There was one paper a while back that looked at 103 samples from China and said there were 2 strains, an "L" strain and an "S" strain. It suggested that the L strain was more prevalent in Wuhan and that the S strain was more prevalent outside of Wuhan. They also suggested without any evidence to back it up that the S strain was less "aggressive". There's still no evidence to support this, and to my mind, the slight variations observed are just the general drift of the genetic code of the virus as it replicates. Sequencing of isolates from Ireland has shown that they are closest to those from Italy, and what the slight variations do tell us is a little bit about how the virus may have spread, but nothing about how virulent it might be or otherwise. The actual data on why this coronavirus behaves the way it does has also been published. Basically it acquired new properties that let it bind to the ACE2 receptor in humans. Our upper airways have less of this receptor, deep in our lungs there is much more. Previous coronavirus outbreaks (SARS and MERS) did not have this new property (they could bind the receptor, but not very efficiently, so needed a lot of it to get into our cells), so they did not efficiently colonise the upper airways, only the deeper parts of the lungs, so patients developed severe symptoms when they were infected (and MERS had a scary fatality rate). But, because it couldn't infect the cells it most frequently encountered, it didn't spread as easily. This also explains why most patients don't get severe symptoms with this virus...their upper airways get infected and their immune system sorts it out. Only when they can't fight it off does the infection spread to the lower airways and pneumonia develops.
  2. 12 points
    Thanks for all the live peeps and kind words. @Stokesy10, @Ayrshire Chris, @steviewevie, @stuartbert two hats, @Welly Boot and anyone else I've missed. I don't know if proud comes into it yet. It probably in there but other emotions are more to the forefront at the moment. Mainly fear, foreboding and concern. Emotions which are re-enforced with every announcement of the death of a doctor, nurse or assistant nurse/HCA. Mrs Lycra is a special person. I've known that since the first day I met her. She's been looking after the sick, the desperately ill and those who are sadly in end of life for so long now it's become second nature........I still don't know how she does it: witnessing death with regularity. I've only once ever seen her visibly upset after a shift: a day on which she lost 3 patients; the final 1 being a 21yo who they failed to resusitate despite a lengthy battle. At the end of the day she's only human doing a job she cares about.......Though at times she's no angel.......wishing the demise of troublesome annoying patients. To me....... She's Very Special
  3. 11 points
    I have purposefullly refrained from passing comment for a while as I did not want to convey a continual stream of bad news. The official government figures provide enough testimony. It is now appropriate to return with an update from the frontline.....as some may recall Mrs Lycra is a nurse heavily involved in the fight against Covid-19. The last 3 weeks on Mrs Lycra's unit have been horrendous and continue to be so (her words). There have been many deaths and very few instances of recovery. This week however has bought a change and with it a glimmer of hope. Deaths still continue but the influx of new patients has slowed and for the first time the unit has a few empty beds. 🤞🤞🤞🤞
  4. 9 points
    Update, confirmation after a bit of faffy about and a slight delay today, he will definitely be moving into his flat tomorrow, says he won't be able to sleep tonight, super excited!!; Mrs oneeye very emotional as well, got very smokey here in the oneeye household this afternoon. Magic 😎 PS we do know his name but thought best to use he / his / him to maintain anonymity and self dignity.
  5. 9 points
    My good news for the day.... out dog walking early yesterday morning and came upon a chap around my age, been sleeping on a bench in our local country park overnight, no shelter, freezing his tits off. So, not one for ever walking on by I stopped and got his story. Fallen on hard times over the past week, never been homeless (and I believe him), but just didn't know what to do, who to speak to, phone had died and of course nowhere to recharge. Long story short, after much phoning to the council (who really struggled with the concept of communications and engagement) and the Sally Army, we've finally sorted out accomodation for him tomorrow. In the mean time he's camping out glasto styley, got my one man tent, sleeping bag, blanket and plenty of food; a bad situation made a little better. A nice quiet spot as well, overlooking a lake, won t get bothered, especially in the current climate. Hopefully tomorrow will be the start of the rest of his life 😎
  6. 7 points
    It's no bother at all, if it helps people get their heads around what is going on, then great! Your taxes have paid for some of my research (via EU funding) and if you've ever given money to cancer research, then I've probably spent some of that for you too, so explaining things is the least I can do!
  7. 7 points
  8. 7 points
  9. 6 points
  10. 6 points
  11. 5 points
  12. 5 points
    BREAKING: All NHS staff to (finally) be issued with firearms to help in the battle against Covid-19
  13. 5 points
    Yes. An electable head of state that you can vote out over an un-elected monarch who lives in a castle? Yes, every day of the week, 100%.
  14. 5 points
  15. 4 points
    Yeah obvious fake account, didn’t wanna say anything yesterday cuz wanted to give benefit of the doubt but it’s a bit clear haha. Only a game, no need to cheat
  16. 4 points
    My own rainbow build ...
  17. 4 points
    If they can deal with the logistical challenge of confirming new dates and moving an entire festival they should also have worked out the logistical challenge around refunding people before expecting people to rebook flights and hotels – which was the subtext of them announcing the new dates – for a festival that they might not even be able to hold anyway. It comes across as corporate arrogance, and tone deaf in the current climate when most people are panicked about money. I know you're the forum's resident Primavera apologist but you really need to take a step back sometimes and recognise that the festival is a huge business and sometimes businesses have their own interests at heart, even if it's one that books your favourite bands. I know this is a unique situation but the general way they've handled this is poor.
  18. 4 points
    Shit guys, the PM has been taken to intensive care. How horrible for him and his family, I hope he pulls through.
  19. 4 points
    This would go off in ways never before realised.
  20. 4 points
    I hope that all belgian festivals will go ahead next year. Imo Belgium is the best country in the world for attending festivals. Nice people, nice atmosphere, nice country and great organization.
  21. 4 points
    One thing I think we shouldn't do is judge the actions of others. Perhaps this guy's TV had just curled up its toes and he has a couple of hormonal teenagers about to go postal on each other at home? I think I'd be off to purchase that new telly as a matter of urgency 'n' all! Also if a different guy is making your delivery every time, surely that increases your risk? Anywho, let's just try to stay home as much as absolutely possible. As a group of friends we have decided to postpone all celebrations till the end of "Social Distancing" so no birthday cards will be sent on teh day, no cakes wil be baked, no anniversaries, nowt. We are going to have a mahoosive "WE MADE IT" party at the end. This generation's "VE Day" Till then my chums, be safe, don't judge, wash your hands. Peace, love and Social Distancing.
  22. 4 points
    He's a fucking idiot. That said I hope he recovers.
  23. 4 points
    So do we think MCR or The Strokes will replace Billie Eilish as headliner ?
  24. 4 points
    How many times does it need to be explained that it is a log scale graph, spaces of an equal size represent a doubling in numbers. That's why 1x - 2x is the same size as 5x - 10x but 2x - 5x is larger as 5 is more than double 2. That's why 200 - 500, 2000 - 5000 and 20,000 - 50,000 all have the same size but larger gaps than the rest which all represent a doubling.
  25. 4 points
    Sad news at the Nestle factory today when a member of staff was seriously injured when a pallet of chocolate fell more than 50 feet and crushed him underneath... He tried in vain to attract attention but every time he shouted "The milky bars are on me" everyone cheered
  26. 4 points
    I play rugby at a fairly decent level, and have spent the last month or so in limbo as my team is top of the league, and we were 18 points clear at the point the season was suspended. Today the RFU released the news that promotion and relegation will happen and final positions in the table will be decided on a point averages system, so we have won the league. First time I've won the league as a senior player, and am in my 30s. Been promoted before but through play offs, and won cup competitions but they are one off games. Safe to say I'm delighted and can't wait to get our trophy - but when and how?
  27. 3 points
  28. 3 points
    After failing to hit 5k a couple times and getting disappointed I decided to stop running for 4 days and focus on some circuits to work different groups of muscles and at the same time improve my cardio. Well today I saw the benefits, a higher cadence and I hit 5k in a time I'm chuffed with.
  29. 3 points
    No, I don't think it says anything about the government response, but I think it says something about the way IDS views the world...which is actually quite consistent with his previous actions.
  30. 3 points
  31. 3 points
    https://www.chollometro.com/ofertas/primavera-sound-reliveprimavera-319926 Some absolute gems in amongst these. Still well up a bit thinking about that magical Jane Birkin concert.
  32. 3 points
    yeah that’s my thinking. Surely there’ll be an abundance of artists touring with people possibly taking lower slots at fests purely as they just wanna get playing again. Will be interesting to see Alexa play 2021 by Vampire Weekend
  33. 3 points
    It's easy to be jealous of that view for sure. Out of my back window I look onto an industrial unit and throughout the summer there is one REALLY loud bloke who talks seemingly constantly to the level that it's all you can hear in the garden, even in headphones, and he's one of those blokes who feels he can talk with authority on any subject. Where I've had to overhear through lack of being able to escape the sound and he's talked about subjects I have knowledge in I am confident in saying that he is absolutely full of shit. He also starts most sentences with 'Actually' and in the 20 years I've lived here has been the unwelcome soundtrack of my summers. I've loved the peace in the garden these last few weeks, even though the view hasn't improved.
  34. 3 points
    Honestly, it would be a guess. Without a vaccine, I'd expect outbreaks to continue once case numbers are brought under control. How we (and by we, I mean the entire planet) deal with those is really the key. I would expect some sense of normality to return in the summer, but there will be long lasting impacts on how we behave. More and more countries are looking at mask wearing in public to limit the spread, more and more public information and education is required to help limit the spread between peaks (our workplaces may be transformed to have hand sanitiser dispensers, disposal facilities for masks, and even small companies might end up having to send people for biohazard training), better drugs could change things, better contact tracing and case isolation, a serology test that is accurate and gives a clear picture of who has been infected, any number of things will shift the outcome. What I think at the moment is that locally, we may see things to return to close to normal. When we might be able to freely travel again is questionable. Quarantine for 2 weeks on arrival is really not practical unless you are trying to get home (which is what is happening at the moment), so I honestly have no idea how this can be managed.
  35. 3 points
    Danish government: No festivals this summer Spanish government: we don't know yet you forgot this important difference. Aside from that - I agree, it takes too long for Primavera (and the Spanish government) to understand there's not going to be any festival this summer or they are just waiting for the government to shut them down (and the Spanish government really have more urgent issues to deal with now than deciding about August)
  36. 3 points
    That's cool. I don't aspire to be either 'nice' or liked on here. My only objective here is to be the awkward squad and make sure Andy Ngo doesn't get away with his trolling, at least on here. If I'm down-voted into the middle ages for it, that will at least add a splash of colour to a page of otherwise grim reading.
  37. 3 points
    This has really altered how I feel about people, we all have different views, but we are all human. I really hope he pulls through.
  38. 3 points
    Wait a minute. 3 people in your spare room, and now they are living with your wife. There is a Louis Theroux doc in there somewhere I will not mention the touching of wood
  39. 3 points
    Tim Vine: "I’d like to start with the chimney jokes – I’ve got a stack of them. The first one is on the house." "I said to the gym instructor: 'Can you teach me to do the splits?' He said: 'How flexible are you?' I said: 'I can’t make Tuesdays.'" "I rang up British Telecom and said: 'I want to report a nuisance caller.' He said: 'Not you again.'" "I've decided to sell my Hoover - it was just collecting dust." "I was stealing things in the supermarket today while balanced on the shoulders of vampires. I was charged with shoplifting on three counts." "I saw this advert in a window that said: 'Television for sale, £1, volume stuck on full.' I thought, 'I can’t turn that down.'" "I've just been on a once-in-a-lifetime holiday. I'll tell you what, never again." "I was reading a book - 'The History of Glue' - I couldn't put it down." "I went to buy a watch, and the man in the shop said 'Analogue?' I said 'No, just a watch.'" "I went into a shop and I said, 'Can someone sell me a kettle?' The bloke said 'Kenwood?' I said, 'Where is he?'" "So Batman came up to me & he hit me over the head with a vase & he went 'T'PAU!' I said 'Don't you mean KAPOW??' He said 'No, I've got china in my hand.'"
  40. 3 points
    Surely must be a mistake. He's added Stormzy and Post back too, probably accidentally copied one of the older posts.
  41. 3 points
    I never believed I would see sentiments like this on a Glastonbury message board, it's only taken 3 weeks to turn everyone onto blind acceptance of everything the government says, what happened to "Boris is a liar" and "i wouldn't trust anything a tory government say", I'm not saying don't obey the current rules but we need to keep a firm grip on our civil liberties and be questioning everything we are told, and certainly shouldn't be demanding our freedoms are taken from us.
  42. 3 points
    If I'm restricted from accessing the deserted lake district on my doorstep and instead confined to my massive house (with swiming pool) and garden (with incredible views) because some people in London don't have the self discipline to stay in their claustrophobically small flats, I'll have to remain drunk for far longer than planned. We're all in it together.
  43. 3 points
    Before furloughing us they essentially said if we could only work 1 hour a day as we had to look after our families they didn’t mind as their staffs health and well-being is more important than anything else. They’re brilliant. It’s actually made us all even more loyal to the company.
  44. 3 points
    If either Iggy or Keith Richards die of coronavirus then the human race is completely fucked.
  45. 3 points
    Had a look through the report, brevity is not one of my strong suits! So, to save you reading any further, the long and short of it is that it builds on the Imperial report, but essentially reaches the same conclusion and justifies the approach taken so far. Basically, what the report shows is that using non-pharmaceutical interventions alone, repeated, stringent measures need to be introduced over a prolonged period to keep ICU admissions below capacity and avoid the consequent spike in mortality associated with a healthcare system that cannot cope. They model out to the end of 2021 with reintroduction of various levels of restrictions and conclude that repeated, stringent control measures are required to keep fatalities down (glimmers of hope will be offered at the end of the next part, if you want to skip to that!). For anybody who is interested...with the caveat that I'm not an epidemiologist, nor a mathematician (though I work with both regularly): Like the Imperial model before it, this report examines the effect of different public health interventions on the transmission of the virus, what impact this will have on hospitalisations and what proportion of those will require ICU admission. By extension, this is then used to predict the amount of people who will become infected and the amount of people who may die. The main differences here compared to the Imperial report (the one that resulted in a change of strategy earlier in March) are that in this model, age stratification is introduced and additional public health measures are also modelled (such as school closures, but care for schoolchildren by grandparents). They also looked at nationwide implementation of measures versus local controls. The age stratification is an interesting addition, as in the Imperial model, the case fatality rate (CRF) was estimated at 1%, which was not unreasonable, but the analysis here is somewhat more nuanced (with CFRs ranging from 0% for the 0-9 age group, right up to 7.68% for the over 80s, though these are adjusted CFRs and I can't exactly figure out how they adjusted them!...they say they used hospitalisation/mortality rates from the Wuhan outbreak and adjusted using the Diamond Princess outbreak, but both are examples of spread among close contacts in confined spaces (lockdown in Wuhan was pretty severe), so I don't know how relevant a method for adjusting CRFs this is if community transmission is the principal way the virus is spreading (which is certainly the case here in Ireland)). The other key addition to the model is the inclusion of estimates of asymptomatic cases and pre-symptomatic (sub-clinical) cases, adjusted for how infectious they might be (and the numbers they use are close to those described in a paper that was published in Science a couple of weeks ago estimating how infections asymptomatic cases might be, so it seems reasonable). Key messages from the report are that individual measures (school shutdown, banning large gatherings, working from home, case isolation, shielding/cocooning high risk groups and so on) are ineffective on their own. Only in combination do they have the required impact on case numbers, ICU admission and ultimately on fatalities (and even in combination, "lockdown" at the current level is required to make them completely effective. They looked at different combinations of these, such as closing schools only, but even as little a 1 contact per week between schoolchildren and grandparents wold negate the impact of the measure. There are a few odd weightings in some of their conclusions (for example, under a lockdown scenario, symptomatic individuals are assumed to be 65% as infectious as they would be under a free for all, but almost all of that infectiousness is weighted by home contact, which remains at 100% no matter what intervention strategy they model...this assumes that everybody in a household will become infected if there is a symptomatic case in the house, but that is at odds with all available data (it's entirely possible to be in contact with somebody who is infectious and not catch the disease if you take the correct precautions)..but the key part of this is that it doesn't contribute massively to the R0 of the virus as numbers of contacts are reduced significantly and that lockdowns reduce it to below 1, which is the target for "flattening the curve". However, "lockdown" can't go on indefinitely, so they look at what happens when restrictions are relaxed and when they are reintroduced. They, like the imperial report before them, use ICU admissions as triggers for the implementation of more stringent public health measures. In this scenario, there's not a huge difference between triggering "lockdown" at 1000 bed occupancy Vs 2000, both stay close to ICU capacity, whereas higher triggers (5000 beds) will quickly overwhelm capacity. But the conclusion from this part of the modelling is peaks and troughs of 2 month lockdowns with about 1 month in between them till the next one (all the way out to December 2021). With a 1000 bed trigger, this predicts just over 5k admissions in the peak weak of each surge, with 1.4k fatalities. The final conclusion drawn is stated as "we estimated that a scenario in which more intense lockdown measures were implemented for shorter periods may be able to keep projected case numbers at a level that would not overwhelm the health system"... So, as per the Imperial report, pretty grim reading at first glance. But, some of the same glimmers of hope at that stage, still exist here. All of the models assume no pharmaceutical intervention and also do not model behavioural change. Both of which I really believe could have significant impact on how things play out. The CDC is currently revising its advice on mask wearing. Previous advice was that surgical masks were in short supply, offered little protection and should be left for frontline healthcare workers. I entirely agree that PPE for frontline healthcare staff is essential and the general public bulk buying any they can get their hands on is only going to make matters worse. However, the type of PPE under discussion here is different. A surgical mask (or any face covering) is used to protect the other person, not primarily the wearer (surgeons don't mainly wear them to stop themselves from picking up an infection from their patient, they wear them to protect you from picking up and infection from them when they open you up). The type of PPE required on the frontline to protect the wearer is different and not necessary for the general population when restrictions are lifted and we start to move about again. But in situations where people are in close contact (i.e. public transport), any kind of face covering reduces transmission rates and I'd like to see more discussion on this as part of an exit strategy. Hand hygiene too and individual protective measures are also not factored into the models (they measure populations not individuals, so we can all take personal responsibility to reduce our risk). As I pointed out last time wrt to the Imperial report, pharmaceutical intervention will shift the entire model substantially. APN01, an actual coronavirus therapeutic, has just entered Phase II trials having been deemed safe at Phase 1. It's based on the receptor the virus uses to get into our cells and we'll see how effective it is. More an more of this will happen, in addition to proper assessment of drugs that have demonstrated anecdotal success. I would be much more confident that treatment for at least some patients would be available in the short-term (with vaccination a longer term goal). And then there's the serology tests...these will give a much clear picture of how extensive infection rates are, what the actual asymptomatic case rate is and inform the models even more accurately (plus maybe allowing at least frontline staff to get back to work). The promise of tests within days has run into the problem of accuracy (often things look great in the lab, but not so great when you see how they perform in actual patients!), so we may have to wait a little bit on this, but it won't take for ever. They may even form part of aggressive testing and contact tracing between peaks that can also shift the model and spread the peaks. Anyway, a long post to basically say that the new model doesn't change things a whole lot!
  46. 3 points
    My Mallets prize has arrived ....
  47. 3 points
    It’s a strange feeling. For instance I was devastated when glasto was cancelled but because it’s the same for all of us then there’s a sense of camaraderie that we are all in it together and not because can’t get to our festival because of a personal issue. That feeling applies to everything at the moment whether it’s holidays being cancelled, going to the supermarket, protecting our loved ones etc. Everyone is affected by this nightmare and sharing in it lessens the pain and sense of isolation. Coming on sites like this are a tremendous help. Keep safe and well
  48. 3 points
  49. 3 points
  50. 3 points
    Stockholm resident here, I can give a short summary of what we're doing/not doing as the 'odd one out' in Europe at the moment. Here's what the government have said; There's only actually been three legislative changes; ban on public events of 50 people or above (until recently this was 500 but was revised down), restaurants/bars must only provide table service and revise seating plans to ensure enough space between, entry ban on people from outside the EU entering Sweden. Aside from that everything else that has come from the government has been 'guidelines'. That advice includes things like; Everyone who can work from home should do. Avoid any unnecessary travel both within and outside of Sweden (this now includes any travel during Easter weekend, particularly to the ski resorts which would be otherwise packed out at this time of year). Stockholm residents, in particular, have been asked not to travel as we are the countries virus 'epicentre' at the moment and they want to slow the spread to other regions. Senior high schools, universities and colleges have been asked to close and look at distance learning instead, this has now happened Lower schools have been allowed to remain open but many (and nurseries too) have taken a unilateral decision to close anyway. Avoid group exercise events and do other activities again (i.e. running, cycling, kayaking alone or in pairs). So this will probably all seem pretty crazy, and potentially frightening, to you guys in the UK and other countries under lockdown or similar at the moment. To be honest being from the UK and being acutely aware of the situation there it's pretty frightening for me too, so I've spent the last few weeks reading up what I can about the Swedish government approach and trying to understand the rationale behind it. This is what I've been able to gather; Scientists are calling this shots, not politicians - Ultimately while the government makes the legislation, the Public Health Agency is basically running the show. State agencies, including the Public Health Agency, are not able to pass laws themselves, but they can give recommendations to the government. Some of the rules that have been brought in to deal with the virus outbreak, such as restrictions for restaurants and cafes and a ban on public events over 50 people, have come following consultation with the agency. It is written into the national constitution that Sweden's public agencies are independent of the government. There are two main goals of this: ensuring that decisions are made based on knowledge and expertise, and limiting corruption, because ministers cannot have influence in agency decision-making. Overruling government agencies or disregarding their advice is usually seen as politically risky, even though it's not specifically forbidden in most circumstances. Individual responsibility - this is something that has been mentioned repeatedly by the PM and, from my vantage point, unpins much of their strategy. Swedes have been asked to repay the governments lack of draconian legislation by mitigating the virus spread by their own sense of social responsibility. From speaking to Swedes this is effectively a social contract that exists between the people and the government here and helps explain why the government hasn't felt it necessary (yet!) to impose stringent rules on people's rights. Despite the above 50 people restriction only coming in last week most gigs/events with lower capacity had already been cancelled, people had already decided to 'play it safe'. Social distancing is already a way of life - speaking very broadly, at the best of times Swedes practice quite a bit of social distancing anyway. Many people in Stockholm live alone, very few families of multiple generations live under the same roof (as perhaps they do in Italy/Spain). This has probably helped limit the spread so far. The great outdoors in an even bigger way of life - There's a running joke in Sweden that the population basically go into hibernation during the winter months, only emerging from their apartments around April/May when the temperatures climb up into the double digits, it's largely true. There would be a big social impact of restricting people's ability to spend time outdoors, particularly at this time of year, and they're keen to avoid/minimise that also. In addition to the above there's the more 'cynical' reasons a) the economy is hit less b) the 2nd and 3rd waves of the pandemic might hurt less. These are pretty much the same reasons that the UK government was considering as I understand it. Even after learning all of the above I'm still really uncomfortable. Particularly when I look at the state of the UK and US today who both dragged their heels on the more extreme measures. Ultimately though we're in uncharted waters and it comparing Sweden to the US, or even the UK, is like comparing apples and oranges. We've also been advised that the next couple of weeks will be tough and that the ICUs in Stockholm are reaching capacity so, like most other countries, it's going to get worse before it gets better. The only question for me is how much more worse will it get going down this road. This really wasn't that short of a summary at all.

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