The Weather Thread 2024

[Aragorn]

15 minutes ago, Thunderstruck said:

Remarkably cold spell of weather at the moment. Only looked at the GFS ensembles but temperatures strugggling in the mid teens at Glastonbury. Barely a chance of 20c for the next 10 days.

 

The only positive is that although there is rain around it doesn't look like a disaster.

 

Festival still too far out to have any clue in my opinion.

 

Agreed, lots of disagreement on ensembles 

 

 

[Ayrshire Chris]

Forecasts are all over the place at the moment. Everyone hedging their bets, saying chance of showers, below Ave temps .  
it really won’t be clear for at least a week yet, and the position of the jet stream. It needs to head north.

[Thunderstruck]

13 minutes ago, Ayrshire Chris said:

Forecasts are all over the place at the moment. Everyone hedging their bets, saying chance of showers, below Ave temps .  
it really won’t be clear for at least a week yet, and the position of the jet stream. It needs to head north.

 

Anyone who claims to have any idea about the festival weather is nuts.

 

People saying below average temps and chance of showers are just projecting this dismal spell on the festival. It could just as likely be hot and sunny at this point!

[nikkic]

22 minutes ago, Aragorn said:

 

Agreed, lots of disagreement on ensembles 

 

 

Lots of disagreement because nobody has a f**king clue. 

[Jacko45]

f**k me pissing down in West Yorkshire, feels like November weekends. 

 

Give us a summer ya bastards

[Jay Pee]

13 minutes ago, Jacko45 said:

f**k me pissing down in West Yorkshire, feels like November weekends. 

 

Give us a summer ya bastards

Yep, we are big on garden bird feeders and the poor buggers are smashing through it like its January. Just had to order another sack of sunflower heart's. This shite weather is really testing the creatures.

 

Hope you enjoyed the look into my middle aged rock n roll lifestyle 

[Crazyfool01]

Sun is out here ... off to watch the cricket in decent temperatures . ok it's not roasting hot but id take this for the festival 

[devonhammer]

ECM charts look horrible. Hoping that they're wrong

[fightoffyour]

The conditions of 2016 did all come together on the Sunday night for LCD to produce the greatest set that the festival has ever seen 

[Euphoricape]

13 minutes ago, devonhammer said:

ECM charts look horrible. Hoping that they're wrong

It will change countless times until then. Outside of the next few days it's pointless trying to predict. 

[PollyPeach]

30 minutes ago, fightoffyour said:

The conditions of 2016 did all come together on the Sunday night for LCD to produce the greatest set that the festival has ever seen 

 The best. I bumped into a friend who is now my boyfriend that sunday and we ended up all watching LCD with another friend who died a few years ago from cancer. Special memories, despite the grim weather!

[PollyPeach]

41 minutes ago, devonhammer said:

ECM charts look horrible. Hoping that they're wrong

I'd almost rather bad weather predictions at this stage, as it's definitely going to change. 

[Glastonbury101]

Perhaps a ridiculous contribution but...I figure the colder/not scorching temps before the festival could be a good thing in at leat one way....as it means the grass wont dry out so maybe slightly more rain absorption(???) anyway just glass half full channeling good weather gods attitude

 

[Drew3232]

21 minutes ago, Glastonbury101 said:

Perhaps a ridiculous contribution but...I figure the colder/not scorching temps before the festival could be a good thing in at leat one way....as it means the grass wont dry out so maybe slightly more rain absorption(???) anyway just glass half full channeling good weather gods attitude

 

 

It's a valid point, but unfortunately the colder temps right now also means the cows on field won't be drinking as much water, so it kind of cancels out what you were saying. Good point though.

[Jacko45]

Temperatures stil poor etc, hardly a nice June BUT...

 

Even when its forecasting rain in the build up, it's nothing too heavy and sustained. That at least bodes well for the build and ground conditions.

 

[The Nal]

YR have updated. Its a f**king shitshow.

 

[Ayrshire Chris]

7 minutes ago, Drew3232 said:

 

It's a valid point, but unfortunately the colder temps right now also means the cows on field won't be drinking as much water, so it kind of cancels out what you were saying. Good point though.

Yeah, but they won’t be pissing as much either😉😊

[Aragorn]

5 hours ago, devonhammer said:

ECM charts look horrible. Hoping that they're wrong

 

Total mess on ECM Ensembles 

 

 

[Drew3232]

It's not gonna rain solid for two weeks. Rain the week before the event makes no rain during more likely. Check out Accuweather:

 

 

[kemosabe]

37 minutes ago, Aragorn said:

 

Total mess on ECM Ensembles 

 

 

 

Hi, I've been following these threads since 2015 but never been brave enough to ask. What do these charts show/ mean? How can one read them? 

[Aragorn]

4 minutes ago, kemosabe said:

 

Hi, I've been following these threads since 2015 but never been brave enough to ask. What do these charts show/ mean? How can one read them? 

Left hand side shows pressure

Generally high pressure is 1020 and above and means usually dry weather depending on position of high over UK. Anything below 1020 and you're getting into more low pressure territory and therefore more chance of rain 

[kemosabe]

1 minute ago, Aragorn said:

Left hand side shows pressure

Generally high pressure is 1020 and above and means usually dry weather depending on position of high over UK. Anything below 1020 and you're getting into more low pressure territory and therefore more chance of rain 

 

And what are the e numbers that make up the chart? 

[Aragorn]

When weather models run they feed in lots of different data over a number of different runs. There's normally an operation run, a control run, the mean of all runs then lots of others with different starting data fed in.

 

The e numbers are each individual run 

 

 

[gooner1990]

🤦‍♂️

[gherkin8r]

12 minutes ago, gooner1990 said:

🤦‍♂️

The rain in mm is the key data point there and while the lightning bolts, rain drops and clouds in the symbols looks pretty scary, there's not a massive amount of rain on any of those days given the relatively high temps and some sun