The Weather Thread 2024

[devonhammer]

From a BBC article about D-Day:

 

Quote

Group Captain Stagg believed a ridge of high pressure was building up from the Azores.

A ridge that would give a window of better weather.

And on 4 June, confirmation came from Belmullet when Ted Sweeney reported: “Heavy rain and drizzle cleared, cloud at 900 feet and visibility on land and sea very clear.”

At 04:15 on the morning of 5 June 1944, Eisenhower met with his senior staff and told them: “OK, We’ll go.”

 

Seems the Azores finger has been an obsession for a while

[Aragorn]

Some consistency starting to develop as today's ensembles also show some rain around in the run up to the festival.  An improvement on yesterday's ensembles though. Less rain shown

 

 

Edited June 5, 2024 by Aragorn

[Thunderstruck]

3 minutes ago, Aragorn said:

Some consistency starting to develop as today's ensembles also show some rain around in the run up to the festival.  An improvement on yesterday's ensembles though. Less rain shown

 

 

Looks like shower signals with the daily peaks.

 

In general though I'd say the ensembles are all over the place - +10c spread in 850s and anything from a 1005mb low to a 1030mb high by ~ 20 June.

 

I'm hoping some of the hints of high pressure building towards mid - end June become the dominant signal...but it's with the weather gods!

[Jacko45]

I mean if anything it's more if June doesn't improve sharpish, we've got about 8 weeks of summer left and it's barely been 20c.

 

f**king shite. 

[Lycra]

5 minutes ago, Jacko45 said:

I mean if anything it's more if June doesn't improve sharpish, we've got about 8 weeks of summer left and it's barely been 20c.

 

f**king shite. 

 

You can say that again. The various forecasters are seemingly pointing to a wetter June (& festival) than normal. No sign of any prolonged 20C+ dry spells.

[Ayrshire Chris]

Brilliant to see the sunshine and activity on the site this morning

its bloody freezing up here, heavy rain and hail showers, contemplating putting the heating on. But as long as it stays here I don’t care😉😊

[bennyboi]

Its bloody glorious down here today guys.

[Jacko45]

7 minutes ago, bennyboi said:

Its bloody glorious down here today guys.

 

Fantastic, in grim West Yorkshire it's blowing a gale and 11c. 

[TiZuff]

2 minutes ago, Jacko45 said:

 

Fantastic, in grim West Yorkshire it's blowing a gale and 11c. 

swear i had hailstone here a few mins ago 

[Ayrshire Chris]

11 minutes ago, TiZuff said:

swear i had hailstone here a few mins ago 

My grandsons football practice last night was abandoned as the hail was virtually horizontal, driven by a howling gale. 
at least it kept the midges away. 😊😉

[gherkin8r]

Forgetting about Glastonbury altogether, if these weather conditions are to become our new norm (ie rain for the last 12 months) I'm going to strongly consider moving abroad.

[The Nal]

1 minute ago, gherkin8r said:

Forgetting about Glastonbury altogether, if these weather conditions are to become our new norm (ie rain for the last 12 months) I'm going to strongly consider moving abroad.

 

Was in America for a lot of April and another few years of sh*t weather like this will have me living in New Orleans by 2030. Already looking at house prices. 

 

f**k this place. 

[Jacko45]

3 minutes ago, gherkin8r said:

Forgetting about Glastonbury altogether, if these weather conditions are to become our new norm (ie rain for the last 12 months) I'm going to strongly consider moving abroad.

 

I said this to the missus, Dad's moved to Gran Canaria in last 12 months and he says waking up knowing it'll be sunny every day is amazing. 

 

Last 12/18 months have been beyond grim. 

[NotAnInsider]

ECMWF are giving a higher than average chance of warmer weather during the festival but not much more than that right now. Multiple model runs are suggesting typical rain amounts with bang on average distribution of rain across those runs.

 

This time of year is difficult to forecast anyway but the models are really struggling at the moment. We're a long way from having any clue about this time next week let alone the festival.

[philipsteak]

4 hours ago, TiZuff said:

swear i had hailstone here a few mins ago 

 

4 hours ago, Ayrshire Chris said:

My grandsons football practice last night was abandoned as the hail was virtually horizontal, driven by a howling gale. 
at least it kept the midges away. 😊😉

 

Just got back from a walk, the middle section of which was ruined by an, I'd say, 30 minute hail storm. 

 

Sunny when I went out so didn't take gloves (why would I, it's f**king JUNE) and my hands were freezing by the time I got back

[Ayrshire Chris]

1 minute ago, philipsteak said:

 

 

Just got back from a walk, the middle section of which was ruined by an, I'd say, 30 minute hail storm. 

 

Sunny when I went out so didn't take gloves (why would I, it's f**king JUNE) and my hands were freezing by the time I got back

As long as it doesn’t head any further south I’m prepared to cope with it, until June is over! After than I need it nice in Keswick for a camping hol.

[philipsteak]

58 minutes ago, Ayrshire Chris said:

As long as it doesn’t head any further south I’m prepared to cope with it, until June is over! After than I need it nice in Keswick for a camping hol.

 

I mean I understand where you're coming from and I sort of agree but I do think not having hailstones is the very least we should expect

[AdrianH]

The latest model runs are not good - the UK stuck under a repeating cool/showery trough pattern which just won't leave us be! Luckily there is plenty of time for improvement still. Should have a general idea of weather for the festival in 2 weeks time (and even then it'll be only semi accurate).

[Aragorn]

Latest precipitation ensembles for Somerset in the build up to the Festival are messy. A good scattering of runs which tells us there is no indications of wet or dry at mo. 

 

 

[Jacko45]

14 hours ago, AdrianH said:

The latest model runs are not good - the UK stuck under a repeating cool/showery trough pattern which just won't leave us be! Luckily there is plenty of time for improvement still. Should have a general idea of weather for the festival in 2 weeks time (and even then it'll be only semi accurate).

 

@Sheffield Steve SAVE US FROM THESE HEATHENS

[Bike_Like_A_Mum]

1 hour ago, Jacko45 said:

 

@Sheffield Steve SAVE US FROM THESE HEATHENS

And @briddjyou've normally got rays of sunshine for us! 🙏🏼✨️

[The Nal]

20 days out. Time for the Netweather lads to meet for their first forecast.

 

[Aragorn]

yes the first GFS Fantasy Island chart at 384 hours away is not far now 

[Pipine]

The models are a mess atm.. hoping for some shift in about a weeks time to something more hopeful, still too far out.  I think the good news is it doesn’t look really wet, just a mixed bag and colder than expected. 

[Jacko45]

7 minutes ago, Pipine said:

The models are a mess atm.. hoping for some shift in about a weeks time to something more hopeful, still too far out.  I think the good news is it doesn’t look really wet, just a mixed bag and colder than expected. 

 

16c in June is sacrilege - if someone says its the hottest June on record I'll be raging.