The Weather Thread 2024

[tarw]

Just now, foodmad said:

As a lurker, a lot of people advising patience as we’re still 10 days out. how many days before can we say with reasonable certainty that this is what the weather will be.

 

Just so i can decide whether to buy a few wet weather items! 

You need to buy the wet weather gear NOW! 
The weather gods will be appeased and will give us glorious weather. Not having full rain protection will anger them and they WILL punish us. 
To answer you question- it depends if the models keep converging we should know in a few days. If they start varying it’s all up in the air again 

[Aragorn]

The ensembles show that not all runs agree, with the operational one of the more negative runs

 

 

[gherkin8r]

59 minutes ago, briddj said:

We go again with the 00Z!

 

THROUGH TO GATES OPEN

 

There's now effectively NO rain at the weekend. What there is would barely be noticeable.

 

GATES OPEN & WEDNESDAY

 

Welcome to the rollercoaster! We now have torrential rain for when the gates open. Temps of 15-16.

 

 

Rain in the vicinity through the day and highs of just 17

 

The overnight 18Z and this have both been bad. In fact the last run (on the left) had low pressure even more dominant.

 

 

THURSDAY

 

Minor amount of rain. Highs of 19-20.

 

 

FRIDAY

 

Completely dry, highs of 20-21.

 

 

Still no sign of high pressure becoming dominant.

 

SATURDAY

 

Little bit of rain around. Highs of 19.

SUNDAY

 

Dry, highs of 21-22.

 

 

No high pressure, and a dirty low in the Atlantic.

 

SUMMARY

 

A definite downgrade, which has been in place for two consecutive runs with the overnight 18Z.

 

Remember, never get too confident.....

In case the weather gods are reading this morning I was definitely only joking about the certainty and the scorchio. And I'm very very sorry 

[gherkin8r]

9 minutes ago, foodmad said:

As a lurker, a lot of people advising patience as we’re still 10 days out. how many days before can we say with reasonable certainty that this is what the weather will be.

 

Just so i can decide whether to buy a few wet weather items! 

Never. Very often in the past the forecast for the weekend on the Wednesday of the festival has been nonsense. We are all here just to pass the time 

[BagpussSeesAllThings]

I spent a lot of my weekend waterproofing my gear in tribute to the weather gods 🌞

[Skip997]

Sunny 

[PollyPeach]

43 minutes ago, gherkin8r said:

Never. Very often in the past the forecast for the weekend on the Wednesday of the festival has been nonsense. We are all here just to pass the time 

This is so true. The forecast can, and often does, change on the day itself. And yet still, this thread is the first thing I check in the morning every year, for at least two weeks before the festival

Edited June 17, 2024 by PollyPeach

[LinvoyPrimus]

1 hour ago, briddj said:

We go again with the 00Z!

 

THROUGH TO GATES OPEN

 

There's now effectively NO rain at the weekend. What there is would barely be noticeable.

 

GATES OPEN & WEDNESDAY

 

Welcome to the rollercoaster! We now have torrential rain for when the gates open. Temps of 15-16.

 

 

Rain in the vicinity through the day and highs of just 17

 

The overnight 18Z and this have both been bad. In fact the last run (on the left) had low pressure even more dominant.

 

 

THURSDAY

 

Minor amount of rain. Highs of 19-20.

 

 

FRIDAY

 

Completely dry, highs of 20-21.

 

 

Still no sign of high pressure becoming dominant.

 

SATURDAY

 

Little bit of rain around. Highs of 19.

SUNDAY

 

Dry, highs of 21-22.

 

 

No high pressure, and a dirty low in the Atlantic.

 

SUMMARY

 

A definite downgrade, which has been in place for two consecutive runs with the overnight 18Z.

 

Remember, never get too confident.....

 

Cool, just going to dismiss this as an outlier...

 

[gherkin8r]

2 minutes ago, PollyPeach said:

This is so true. The forecast can, and often does, change on the day itself. And yet still, this thread is the first thing I check in the morning every year, for at least two weeks before the festival

It's just ritual for me and a way to simultaneously pass the time and obsess about the festival. I'm F5ing on here for the next week but come Wednesday morning I won't even give a flying one

[EavisAintDead]

What I can tell you for sure is that it is a stunning day in Glastonbury following on from a completely dry weekend and any moisture from the downpour on Friday has completely gone

[Jacko45]

OK that was a horror show from @briddj

 

Worryingly, this time last year looking back on the old thread the predictions were getting very accurate to how it turned out.

 

Albeit they had underestimated the temperatures, the temps were predicted to be 19/20c and went rather higher.

 

[Jacko45]

In more positive news, this is incredible drying weather in the build up.

 

You'd imagine it'll be bone dry for Tuesday arrivals at least...

 

[AdrianH]

ECM has a plume (hot - high 20s/low 30s) scenario instead for the festival opening  - something in between would be nice!

 

Should have a bit more clarity by mid week hopefully.

[rlandy95]

I fancy the ECM over the GFS a little more 😂

[Drfoxxx]

Long live the ECM ❤️

[rlandy95]

3 minutes ago, Drfoxxx said:

Long live the ECM ❤️

 

 

[Drfoxxx]

2 minutes ago, rlandy95 said:

 

 

Very good 😂

[Glasto Weatherwatch]

This is almost identical to last year - the Monday of the week before we had a much less good Operational GFS run in amongst otherwise pretty positive forecasts. 

 

Plenty of time for it to change but I think ten days out this is better than I hoped for back in May when it wouldn't stop raining. Ever. All to play for!

Edited June 17, 2024 by Glasto Weatherwatch

[a.shep]

Just bought a new poncho so it will inevitably be a dry festival, taken one for the team.

[NotAnInsider]

I don't think I've ECMWF ensemble forecasts looking this positive this far out ever before. There is one run showing significant rain on the Sunday of the festival... and other than that it's dry or the typical sunshine and showers we've had the last few years. 

 

The GFS however is showing zero consistency after the end of this week - so I suspect we're going to have big variances run to run and the full rollercoaster experience, by the Friday of the festival there are some huge swings between runs. It's likely that being the reason why the Met Office are being non committal in their long range forecast.

[Dave_c]

I'm going to buy a rain jacket today to take one for the team too

[AdrianH]

The difference seems to be on how the main trough in the Atlantic is handled. The GFS has a series of small low pressure systems getting ejected off it which pass directly through the UK where as the ECM has these initially riding over us to the north and then to the south (which pumps up the hot air towards us).

 

Not long to the 6hz GFS - see if it sticks to its guns!

[kalifire]

I packed my rain jacket but also some after-sun, so my sacrifices and affronts to the weather gods somewhat cancel each other out.

[4AssedMonkey]

27 minutes ago, NotAnInsider said:

I don't think I've ECMWF ensemble forecasts looking this positive this far out ever before. There is one run showing significant rain on the Sunday of the festival... and other than that it's dry or the typical sunshine and showers we've had the last few years. 

 

The GFS however is showing zero consistency after the end of this week - so I suspect we're going to have big variances run to run and the full rollercoaster experience, by the Friday of the festival there are some huge swings between runs. It's likely that being the reason why the Met Office are being non committal in their long range forecast.

 

12 minutes ago, AdrianH said:

The difference seems to be on how the main trough in the Atlantic is handled. The GFS has a series of small low pressure systems getting ejected off it which pass directly through the UK where as the ECM has these initially riding over us to the north and then to the south (which pumps up the hot air towards us).

 

Not long to the 6hz GFS - see if it sticks to its guns!

 

So, you could say it's on a knife edge.....

 

 

 

.....like every year!

[kemosabe]

I've always said I'm a huge ECM fan, supported them through thick and thin. Wouldn't trust anyone else with my weather.