The Weather Thread 2023

[The Nal]

Theres a weather warning issued in Pilton for thunderstorms and they're showing rain almost every day. 

Biblical stuff for at least 24 hours.

[briddj]

6 minutes ago, MgH97 said:

With only 4 days to go now when can we deem the forecasts/models accurate? 

Friday onwards could be up in the air until gates open.

[Ommadawn]

2 minutes ago, Drinky said:

Surely 7.5mm, unless you’re posting from a dinghy

Yes - Sorry. corrected.

[Ommadawn]

3 minutes ago, The Nal said:

Theres a weather warning issued in Pilton for thunderstorms and they're showing rain almost every day. 

Biblical stuff for at least 24 hours.

Yep, it's going to absolutely Nal it down with rain.

[squirrelarmy]

3 minutes ago, The Nal said:

Theres a weather warning issued in Pilton for thunderstorms

Storms often follow periods of hot weather. Better to have it before the gates open. 
 

Bring on the thunder! People on site, stay safe!

[Jacko45]

Most forecasters now saying some rain every day 😞

 

 

[stuartbert two hats]

30 minutes ago, briddj said:

Fair to say it all went a bit rocky while I was away yesterday. Let's have a quick 00Z before the 06Z comes up in a couple of hours.

THROUGH TO GATES OPEN

The Sunday rain is much reduced, as it was on the 18Z, and there's the chance the heaviest rain hits to the east of the site.

A small amount of rain on Tuesday, but nothing nasty as we saw in yesterday's runs.

Dry when gates open, temps of 18.

Wednesday is effectively dry, temps of 21.

THURSDAY

Small showers around, but really small amount of rain. Highs of 22.

FRIDAY

Totally dry, highs of 22.

And is high pressure building in?

SATURDAY

Totally dry, highs of 22.

This is a big improvement, as the 00Z had a deluge.

SUNDAY

Dry, highs of 22.

SUMMARY

A lovely run, with nothing but a few small showers and temperatures of 21-22.

As you can see from the Sunday chart, however, there is some doubt about what will happen with that area of low pressure.

You know what that means? KNIFE EDGE! See you at 11.30am.

It's like you've never been away. Please don't leave the house until you set off for the festival!

[Trunks1993]

2-0 up against the run of play with 70mins on the clock. Can we hold out? 

[stuartbert two hats]

16 minutes ago, MgH97 said:

With only 4 days to go now when can we deem the forecasts/models accurate? 

Depends which part of the festival. Sunday isn't accurate when the gates open.

[Titters]

12 minutes ago, The Nal said:

Theres a weather warning issued in Pilton for thunderstorms and they're showing rain almost every day. 

Biblical stuff for at least 24 hours.

Putting my ticket in the bin. 

[stuartbert two hats]

3 minutes ago, Jacko45 said:

Most forecasters now saying some rain every day 😞

 

 

Only because they're using the old run, which has now been superseded.

[Sheffield Steve]

These are the daily maximum temperatures for the festival indicated by these models, where available.  

Very good agreement across the board, now that the GEM has dialled back on its 30c for the Sunday.
 

ECM, GFS, GEM, ICON, UKMO

Wednesday: 21,21,21,22,21

Thursday: 22,21,22,22,21

Friday: 22,21,22,23,22

Saturday: 23,22,21,25,24

Sunday: 24,22,23,

 

[Drinky]

10 minutes ago, Trunks1993 said:

2-0 up against the run of play with 70mins on the clock. Can we hold out? 

For the love of god find a charger 

[Alvoram]

I’ve seen this pattern several times before, it WILL rain over the next few days, then what sometimes seems to happen is that because of that, the longer range charts start to favour low pressure and show a weird kind of bias towards that lingering. But what actually happens is, after the storms, the high builds back stronger… 

I REALLY hope that happens here. Not saying it will, not by any means, just that I’ve seen it happen with these charts several times before. 

Maybe one of the experts here can explain why this sometimes happens? Why a period of low can sometimes trick the charts into thinking it will linger longer than it does? 

[FuzzyDunlop]

46 minutes ago, chazwwe said:

@FuzzyDunlopGet in here and say stick! 

I will stick at that.

 

Stick!

[sprocketrocket]

Far too much rain. Twist 

[ThatCubT]

I arrive on site tomorrow and this weather forecast has not got me hopeful! 

[guypjfreak]

It'll be what it is but if we have R in the night and fine days with abit of high cloud cover then it'll be great.. 

[4AssedMonkey]

So I ignore this thread for c. 18 hours because of work and a night out and it all goes to sh*t in my absence. I think you should all have a good hard think about what you’ve done. I’m not mad, just disappointed. 

[chazwwe]

35 minutes ago, Jacko45 said:

Most forecasters now saying some rain every day 😞

 

 

The site is big. The chances of the whole site being covered in the same spot every day is quite low. The amount of rain is also very little. A light shower won't do anything to the site. That should be the biggest concern, not 'oh its gonna rain for 15 minutes' 

[Jacko45]

10 minutes ago, 4AssedMonkey said:

So I ignore this thread for c. 18 hours because of work and a night out and it all goes to sh*t in my absence. I think you should all have a good hard think about what you’ve done. I’m not mad, just disappointed. 

 

It's nothing drastic but general concensus us rain every day.

[sprocketrocket]

2 minutes ago, Jacko45 said:

 

It's nothing drastic but general concensus us rain every day.

Mate, that's f**king drastic

[CaledonianGonzo]

Just as well its not the consensus

[Glasto Weatherwatch]

For me, acid test is - Monday after 2022 festival, if you were offered current forecasts the weekend before 2023, would you have taken them?

 

Personally, after three back to back dry festivals, I would have ripped your arm off for it. 

[MEGATRONICMEATWAGON]

Thunderstorms do make for a very atmospheric festival.