The Weather Thread 2023

[JoeyT]

A weather based reality check for all this morning.

However to echo sentiment written previously it is still too early. 

We still believe…

[sprocketrocket]

20 minutes ago, Sheffield Steve said:

This mornings GFS is a downgrade from yesterdays run. Yesterday the high pressure pushed down from the north to give us a fine weekend but this morning keeps it further north as it’s bumped out of the way by a thundery low coming up from France for Sunday…

So the first few days have showers, Saturday dryish, then the threat of thunder on Sunday. 
It’s still all over the place every day, so no detail can be inferred from any of the GFS runs.  The other models are also struggling for consistency so it’s still TOO EARLY. 
 

FFS, this is on all you "keeps the dust down" losers. 

[CaledonianGonzo]

Was hammering down in Manchester last night, but I wept for joy as I knew that the Mancunians would no longer be afflicted by dust. 

[stopwn1981]

The ECM has just started to run - the anticipation 

[CaledonianGonzo]

Once more into the breach where we get cockteased by the Azores High.

[2019]

Between now and Wednesday 21st, it looks dry and fine. Icon13 needs watching as it currently has a chance of rain Monday 19th night/Tuesday 20th morning.

Wednesday 21st : Dry/Wind light from west 20c.

Thursday 22nd: small chance of some very early morning drizzle (gsf). Wind light from west (gsf), or from east (ecmwf). 22c.

No Wellies (yet)

Edited June 13, 2023 by 2019
Typo 9f > of

[briddj]

After a small downgrade on the 18Z, what does the 00Z have in store for us?

GATES OPEN

There is still a lot of heavy rain showing, now for the Sunday. However, it's then completely dry on Monday and Tuesday and would quickly be drying out, and dry right through to gates open on Wednesday morning.

Wednesday itself has a tiny amount of rain, with highs of 22.

THURSDAY

We have lost the torrential rain of Wednesday into Thursday morning in this run.

Thursday has some small, insignificant showers and highs of 22.

FRIDAY

Completely dry in the day. Very small amount of rain in the evening. Highs of 23.

Is the finger coming?

SATURDAY

Some rain in the afternoon, again wouldn't make a difference to the ground. The high continues to push in, with temperatures of 18. Much cooler on this run for the weekend.

SUNDAY

Some very light showers but effectively dry. Highs of 19.

SUMMARY

A much improved run compared to the 18Z, with the loss of the torrential rain going into Thursday, and the rain during the festival would do nothing to the site.

The difference in this run is the formation of the finger. As you can see from this on Saturday, it's not a real finger in this run, meaning we don't get the temperature rise - though it is warmer the first few days on site.

Previous on the left, latest on the right.

Edited June 13, 2023 by briddj

[Justcalledtosay]

40 minutes ago, Sheffield Steve said:

This mornings GFS is a downgrade from yesterdays run. Yesterday the high pressure pushed down from the north to give us a fine weekend but this morning keeps it further north as it’s bumped out of the way by a thundery low coming up from France for Sunday…

So the first few days have showers, Saturday dryish, then the threat of thunder on Sunday. 
It’s still all over the place every day, so no detail can be inferred from any of the GFS runs.  The other models are also struggling for consistency so it’s still TOO EARLY. 
 

For gods sake Steve. We were doing so well..

[sime]

37 minutes ago, Clouds said:

2015 was perfect festival weather for me and there were spells of rain all weekend.  Wellies came out once but other than that the site held up really well and dried up 1-2 hours after.

Same. A bit of rain every now and again is fine in my opinion.(That being said, I am hoping for a dry festival!) 

[Detective McNulty]

I love the commitment here and I thoroughly believe all the good reports and ignore the bad ones but this whole enterprise really is so futile. We're still probably 5 days away from knowing what the weather's going to be like and even that won't be particularly accurate. Breathe people. 

[ticketboy69]

I’m relatively happy with this and would far prefer the odd shower to blistering sunshine. Dry and cool would be my dream Glastonbury weather. 

[Jacko45]

I'm not seeing anything catastrophic in the recent runs (of the parts I can understand)

Add into that a site build which has barely seen a drop of rain in 3+ weeks.

[MEGATRONICMEATWAGON]

Dust in the eyes and lungs. It's the new edginess we've all been waiting for. 

[rmartin1803]

Waiting on my main weather source @The Nal Any update ? 

[Aragorn]

25 minutes ago, briddj said:

After a small downgrade on the 18Z, what does the 00Z have in store for us?

GATES OPEN

There is still a lot of heavy rain showing, now for the Sunday. However, it's then completely dry on Monday and Tuesday and would quickly be drying out, and dry right through to gates open on Wednesday morning.

Wednesday itself has a tiny amount of rain, with highs of 22.

THURSDAY

We have lost the torrential rain of Wednesday into Thursday morning in this run.

Thursday has some small, insignificant showers and highs of 22.

FRIDAY

Completely dry in the day. Very small amount of rain in the evening. Highs of 23.

Is the finger coming?

SATURDAY

Some rain in the afternoon, again wouldn't make a difference to the ground. The high continues to push in, with temperatures of 18. Much cooler on this run for the weekend.

SUNDAY

Some very light showers but effectively dry. Highs of 19.

SUMMARY

A much improved run compared to the 18Z, with the loss of the torrential rain going into Thursday, and the rain during the festival would do nothing to the site.

The difference in this run is the formation of the finger. As you can see from this on Saturday, it's not a real finger in this run, meaning we don't get the temperature rise - though it is warmer the first few days on site.

Previous on the left, latest on the right.

The 0Z ensembles show pressure rising for many runs as we go into the festival. 

However the operation run for precipitation was pretty boisterous for little to no precipitation. Many runs showing rain. 

It certainly looks like there will be some moisture, a mud bath unlikely looking at the trend over the last few days. 

 

 

[Scrump]

17 minutes ago, Detective McNulty said:

but this whole enterprise really is so futile.

And yet here we are....

[Sheffield Steve]

By way of illustration of how the models are struggling for festival period, here are two models’ options from the latest midnight run, for midnight on festival Friday.  

The GFS has a high to our NW ridging down over the U.K.:

 

But for the same time, ECMWF gives us a right royal warm finger of high pressure pushing up from down below, keeping us dry with rising temperatures:

 

So, no signs of a dry festival and no signs of a wet festival. Hopefully by the weekend we’ll have some sort of agreement, but I wouldn’t bet on it.

[4AssedMonkey]

Realise it's still TOO EARLY, however I'm taking heart from the fact that both models are trending towards little or no heavy rain as we get closer.  I'd stick my neck out to say that chances of a mudbath are looking slimmer every day.  This makes me a happy Monkey.

[WannabeGlastoVet]

I wish these runs also came with pollen predictions, regardless of the weather hayfever is the one thing that's come close to ruining my Glastonbury more than once

[stuartbert two hats]

4 minutes ago, 4AssedMonkey said:

Realise it's still TOO EARLY, however I'm taking heart from the fact that both models are trending towards little or no heavy rain as we get closer.  I'd stick my neck out to say that chances of a mudbath are looking slimmer every day.  This makes me a happy Monkey.

It really does seem like this isn't a knife edge year - somewhere in the middle seems to be most likely option by far, unlike most years where there seems to be a choice between mudbath and el scorchio. Neither are being predicted at the moment.

[nikkic]

53 minutes ago, MEGATRONICMEATWAGON said:

Dust in the eyes and lungs. It's the new edginess we've all been waiting for. 

Folk will happily snort ketamine, but dust in the eyes is a step too far. 

[Leyrulion]

14 minutes ago, Sheffield Steve said:

By way of illustration of how the models are struggling for festival period, here are two models’ options from the latest midnight run, for midnight on festival Friday.  

The GFS has a high to our NW ridging down over the U.K.:

 

But for the same time, ECMWF gives us a right royal warm finger of high pressure pushing up from down below, keeping us dry with rising temperatures:

 

So, no signs of a dry festival and no signs of a wet festival. Hopefully by the weekend we’ll have some sort of agreement, but I wouldn’t bet on it.

What the difference between these really? 

My read is that it'll generally be dry with scattered showers throughout the weekend. No need for wellies.

[CaledonianGonzo]

Does look like both models have the high pressure winning out.

[Avalon_Fields]

1 hour ago, briddj said:

After a small downgrade on the 18Z, what does the 00Z have in store for us?

GATES OPEN

There is still a lot of heavy rain showing, now for the Sunday. However, it's then completely dry on Monday and Tuesday and would quickly be drying out, and dry right through to gates open on Wednesday morning.

Wednesday itself has a tiny amount of rain, with highs of 22.

THURSDAY

We have lost the torrential rain of Wednesday into Thursday morning in this run.

Thursday has some small, insignificant showers and highs of 22.

FRIDAY

Completely dry in the day. Very small amount of rain in the evening. Highs of 23.

Is the finger coming?

SATURDAY

Some rain in the afternoon, again wouldn't make a difference to the ground. The high continues to push in, with temperatures of 18. Much cooler on this run for the weekend.

SUNDAY

Some very light showers but effectively dry. Highs of 19.

SUMMARY

A much improved run compared to the 18Z, with the loss of the torrential rain going into Thursday, and the rain during the festival would do nothing to the site.

The difference in this run is the formation of the finger. As you can see from this on Saturday, it's not a real finger in this run, meaning we don't get the temperature rise - though it is warmer the first few days on site.

Previous on the left, latest on the right.

Appreciate your diligence in keeping us informed. Cheers!

[Neverneverland]

12 minutes ago, nikkic said:

Folk will happily snort ketamine, but dust in the eyes is a step too far. 

Very true, but nobody wants ket in the eye either.