When will this shit end?

[DeanoL]

On 4/4/2021 at 12:57 PM, El Matador said:

Data not dates. 

There is not one single piece of data that suggests that outdoor mixing will result in a spike in hospitalisations. But yes let's wait 5 weeks to find out what we already know. 

That assumes everyone follows the rules. It’s pretty clear even from this thread that allowing people to mix outdoors is being seen by some as a sign that it’s now safe for them to mix indoors, when they were not before. It’s the people that always drive 5% above the speed limit. Which means the speed limit is actually 5% lower than it needs to be. 
So we can’t rely on data that assumes everyone is following the rules, so we have to wait and see what people actually do and then look at the actual data. Meanwhile the people breaking the rules are still convinced that they are making an argument for opening up more quickly when they’re actually the reason it’s all so slow in the first place!

[Guest]

5 minutes ago, efcfanwirral said:

 

Just checked and they're doing second doses after 21 days so using their supply completely differently to us also. 

Yeah I remember seeing something similar regarding that too. Their different strategy plus a general shortage in April probably explains their slowdown. 

[steviewevie]

6 minutes ago, JoeyT said:

When was their 3rd wave? (it's entirely possible I'm being stupid and can't see it!) It seems to be simply the case that as they opened up cases rose a bit but then dropped but not sure it could be classes as a "wave" as such?

may be hidden due to lack of testing? Got the three wave/lockdown thing from wikipedia. Anyway, the point is they had a lot of cases over winter and a lockdown to go with it.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_in_Israel

 

[Havors]

2 hours ago, thewayiam said:

I'm not. I didn't stare anything about a restaurant. It's already been said you won't officially need one.

You quoted the article that Labour will oppose covid certificates.... saying they are stupid if they do?? 

[onthebeach]

I really think it’s the press (particularly the DM) jumping on worse case scenarios. Actual details are in this -

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/975909/S1182_SPI-M-O_Summary_of_modelling_of_easing_roadmap_step_2_restrictions.pdf

Looks though it’s just LSHTM claiming 31% reduction for AZ in infection, note not symptomatic disease, hospitalisations or death

 

[JoeyT]

 

[Havors]

1 hour ago, st dan said:

Taken from The Daily Mail (sorry) but surely this is a load of old rubbish. With high population mixing they are forecasting that more people would die per day in July than January, despite the warmer weather, and more importantly the huge vaccination rollout since then. 
Surely the only way this can be given any time of day is if the vaccines aren’t as effective as they are stating ...

I'm a little concerned none of these every bother factoring in possible seasonality. We had no vaccine last summer and shite social distancing rules and no masks.... the cases/deaths dropped to nothing. 

I know they cant say for sure if it is seasonal but it bloody well looks as though it is. 

[JoeyT]

Moderna ready for action...

 

[Guest]

Covid passports: Certification is 'one option', vaccines minister says https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-56645208

[SwedgeAntilles]

21 minutes ago, JoeyT said:

Moderna ready for action...

 

McDerna

[Havors]

28 minutes ago, Barry Fish said:

Evidence from hot countries around the world suggest otherwise.

I think it had more to do with the timing of lockdowns couple with the reality we are all outside a little bit more.

Does it? 

https://www.scienceboard.net/index.aspx?sec=ser&sub=def&pag=dis&ItemID=2055 

https://aip.scitation.org/doi/10.1063/5.0037640

Like I said we still dont know for sure but it is very possible. 

Edited April 6, 2021 by Havors

[Havors]

1 minute ago, Barry Fish said:

What about places like Brazil where it is a pretty much constant temp ? Although they do have a flu season so maybe that blows that theory out of the water.

If it its seasonal then that is going to help a lot!

https://aip.scitation.org/doi/10.1063/5.0037640

Brazil does not blow anything out of the water really. Its a pandemic + socio economic factors means you cant say it is or isnt yet. 

Other countries that have gotten it more under control are more useful. Once Brazil sorts itself out its likely to be seasonal there also. 

[JoeyT]

Zoe continues to trend downwards, we could go sub 2k this week.

 

[Havors]

1 minute ago, Barry Fish said:

It mean it blows my theory out of the water 😛 

Haha well there is a lot more to seasonality to be honest, you can only compare countries with similar climates who have proper seasons. Countries close to the equator don't really have seasons like the UK.

Anyway as we say we dont know for sure yet but there wont be any surprise if it is. Seasonality should be used to form some of these models they produce though, to give a better scope of predictions.  

[DeanoL]

21 hours ago, JBarbour said:

hahaha.  do you get stressed easy? You seem mad. 

How is trying to discuss something anti vax and where I have I said I'm not talking the vaccine? 

Shall we just cross our fingers and hope there are no long-term side effects, call everyone that wants a bit more information and reluctant they are anti-vax and bellends?  Or shall we use past experiences, science and research? What if people want the vaccine but want a bit more time to decide and allow other people wanting it to take it first?  

You've said it in the post no one knows of the future possibilities, so how can you blame young healthy people that have say less than 0.0006% chance of catching and dying from covid to put something in their body, because they are anti-vax and bellends if they don't? Young people have a hell of a lot of years to work and pull the country out this shit, if we use previous experience of 1 in 55,000 of them getting narcolepsy for example or other long term side effects is that just tough because they had to take it to save someone already knocking on deaths door? 

That’s all completely reasonable. What you’re missing is that COVID isn’t much older than the first vaccine trials, so every time you talk about unknown side-effects of the vaccine, you can replace “vaccine” with “COVID” and have the same argument.  Yes the vaccine could cause narcolepsy two years after taking it. We just don’t know. But COVID could cause narcolepsy two years after catching it. Even in an otherwise asymptomatic infection. We don’t know that either. 
We won’t be eliminating COVID. So you are getting one or the other. Your choice which!

[zahidf]

 

[fraybentos1]

4 minutes ago, Barry Fish said:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/apr/06/england-covid-vaccine-programme-could-slow-sharply-sage-warns

Sage saying forget about a vaccine for a very long time...

That's a weird description of 'very long time'. Everyone will be done in the next 5 months or so (at least one dose) and the most vulnerable will have had 2 very soon.

[st dan]

I still would like to see the data for hospitalisation and deaths in the under 50’s who had no previously diagnosed underlying health conditions, throughout the pandemic. 
I imagine the numbers for these will be very small, yet it is only this population that will remain at ‘risk’ for the next few months. 

[Radiochicken]

1 hour ago, onthebeach said:

I really think it’s the press (particularly the DM) jumping on worse case scenarios. Actual details are in this -

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/975909/S1182_SPI-M-O_Summary_of_modelling_of_easing_roadmap_step_2_restrictions.pdf

Looks though it’s just LSHTM claiming 31% reduction for AZ in infection, note not symptomatic disease, hospitalisations or death

 

Pfizer >>>> AZ in these assumptions.

Central estimate only has it stopping risk of death by 80% vs 98%.

[steviewevie]

53 minutes ago, Havors said:

Haha well there is a lot more to seasonality to be honest, you can only compare countries with similar climates who have proper seasons. Countries close to the equator don't really have seasons like the UK.

Anyway as we say we dont know for sure yet but there wont be any surprise if it is. Seasonality should be used to form some of these models they produce though, to give a better scope of predictions.  

by seasonal you mean it spreads more during winter months because people are inside more?

 

[Avalon_Fields]

22 minutes ago, Barry Fish said:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/apr/06/england-covid-vaccine-programme-could-slow-sharply-sage-warns

Sage saying forget about a vaccine for a very long time...

That's not like SAGE to be pessimistic is it!

Much of what's currently being reported by the experts as fact isn't, it is worst case scenarios and their predictions are based on the vaccines being less effective than the evidence is suggesting at this time.

[Guest]

1 minute ago, Avalon_Fields said:

That's not like SAGE to be pessimistic is it!

Much of what's currently being reported by the experts as fact isn't, it is worst case scenarios and their predictions are based on the vaccines being less effective than the evidence is suggesting at this time.

I’m not trying to support what they are doing but isn’t that what they are supposed to do? Model scenarios to see how bad it could get and present that to government so they can decide if they need to act?

[km9]

3 minutes ago, Ozanne said:

I’m not trying to support what they are doing but isn’t that what they are supposed to do? Model scenarios to see how bad it could get and present that to government so they can decide if they need to act?

Yes you're right. I think the big problem here is that we now all have instant access to this information, and can spread it at the touch of a button.

[oneeye]

Statistics Always Getting Exaggerated....

Edited April 6, 2021 by oneeye

[Avalon_Fields]

5 minutes ago, Ozanne said:

I’m not trying to support what they are doing but isn’t that what they are supposed to do? Model scenarios to see how bad it could get and present that to government so they can decide if they need to act?

Yes, you're right, but what tends to happen is the worst scenario of a range is taken up by the press (Because the press is driven by bad news stories more than good news). In fairness I do respect Whitty and Valance hugely, but what I find unprofessional is a number of the SAGE team speak to the press and TV on an individual capacity, expressing their own views, whereas collective responsibility is the right approach to take.