When will this shit end?

[Fuzzy Afro]

1 hour ago, mcshed said:

That you wouldn't do that if you find the word incredibly triggering.

Good days and bad days. Yesterday was a bad day. Friday apparently wasn’t. 

[zahidf]

 

[Zoo Music Girl]

2 minutes ago, zahidf said:

 

Definitely been a ramping up of locations available on the St John Ambulance app in last few days. Not all of them have shifts available yet, but the new locations suggest there will be quite a few more soon.

[steviewevie]

5 hours ago, Gregfc15 said:

Maybe they should have called themselves ‘The Premier SAGE” if they wanted to be taken seriously as a breakaway organisation from the main body….

I’d say as equally as embarrassing as throwing your lot in with Heneghan, Tegnell, Guptra and Sikora,  killing thousands of extra people for Xmas Turkey, being locked down for 8 of 12 months and tanking the economy.

The fact that creation of a group outside of the actual body that was supposed to be providing support to government decision making was even required is what is embarrassing. Obviously Sage  can only advise, and it’s up to politicians to listen, but it’s hardly the worst thing to have a group urging a more cautious approach to counter the voices that the Government seemed to be placing more weight on that have either got it wrong, or not been able to cut through.

They obviously seem a bit glass half empty at times when the vaccine results are providing an overwhelming sense of optimism, with results minimising the concern variants might actually pose in reality  but it’s good to still have some voices reminding people what could go wrong as a counter to the blinkered optimism that has dominated the decision making so far.  In the end the data will tell the real story, and it’s a pretty good read at the moment.

if you listen to what they say they are upbeat about vaccines but cautious about reopening, so are kind of aligned to government policy. It was last summer and autumn when they were saying stuff that maybe people should have listened to more.

[jparx]

1 hour ago, Homer said:

Not been in here much (just seen someone having an argument with themself - which is a nice touch), but as the news has got progressively better, the tone seems to have got more shirty. Good to remember that we are on the home straight now 👍

Aye that’s what I can’t my head around. Last April, I thought this thread would be a total party when we had the vaccine and were nearing the end of lockdown. How the thread was more jolly at the start of the pandemic than near the end is very odd. 

[st dan]

2 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

if you listen to what they say they are upbeat about vaccines but cautious about reopening, so are kind of aligned to government policy. It was last summer and autumn when they were saying stuff that maybe people should have listened to more.

I think the issue with their stance is that reopening is obviously going to lead to more cases - everybody knows that. 

We’re currently all locked up in our houses with nowhere to go, and it really doesn’t take a genius to determine that a) if you keep people locked down then it stops the spread of the virus, and b) this isn’t sustainable for much longer for a number of reasons. So what are/were their genuine suggestions for reopening or a return to normal? By all means air their concerns if they wish - but they wouldn’t send schools back by the sounds of it, which would be more damaging than the virus itself at this stage.

Just taking their scientific views to control the virus is only a part in the much bigger picture, and they seem obsessed with virus suppression only and nothing else. Which is understandable given this is their field of work, but isn’t really helpful in trying to get some normality back after a year. 

[steviewevie]

1 minute ago, st dan said:

I think the issue with their stance is that reopening is obviously going to lead to more cases - everybody knows that. 

We’re currently all locked up in our houses with nowhere to go, and it really doesn’t take a genius to determine that a) if you keep people locked down then it stops the spread of the virus, and b) this isn’t sustainable for much longer for a number of reasons. So what are/were their genuine suggestions for reopening or a return to normal? By all means air their concerns if they wish - but they wouldn’t send schools back by the sounds of it, which would be more damaging than the virus itself at this stage.

Just taking their scientific views to control the virus is only a part in the much bigger picture, and they seem obsessed with virus suppression only and nothing else. Which is understandable given this is their field of work, but isn’t really helpful in trying to get some normality back after a year. 

they are not against schools opening, they just think they should be made as safe as possible.

https://www.independentsage.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/Schools-consultation-Feb-2021-2.pdf

[steviewevie]

7 minutes ago, jparx said:

Aye that’s what I can’t my head around. Last April, I thought this thread would be a total party when we had the vaccine and were nearing the end of lockdown. How the thread was more jolly at the start of the pandemic than near the end is very odd. 

just frustration with the gradual release of restrictions when all the current evidence points to the vaccines being really very effective. Bojo doesn't want to get burned again if in the future there was the need for stricter restrictions or even another lockdown so is being cautious and the current strategy is obviously popular, very much helped with the success of the vaccine rollout, so he won't feel he needs to change course...but he might do in April/May if things continue to look better than expected.

[nikkic]

10 hours ago, Smeble said:

Yes they do, Brexit shows this, my mother in law pronounced on Facebook the other day that at nearly 70 she thinks she shouldn’t be paying tax anymore, apparently she thinks she has payed her dues and doesn’t need to pay any more. Apparently once you get to 65 you shouldn’t have to pay tax. She didn’t take kindly to me pointing out that she stopped paying income tax when she retired at 50 with a gold plated pension, the profits from the rocketing house prices, and wouldn’t  be paying UK tax at all if she wasn’t doing a tax dodge so she could still use the NHS despite living in Cyprus. She and her generation are the epitome of wanting your cake and eating it. She also then bitches about asylum seekers only coming to the UK to use the NHS, I can’t stand the woman.

Christmas sounds like a laugh 

[Homer]

33 minutes ago, jparx said:

Aye that’s what I can’t my head around. Last April, I thought this thread would be a total party when we had the vaccine and were nearing the end of lockdown. How the thread was more jolly at the start of the pandemic than near the end is very odd. 

There is psychological need to try and find people to blame when things like this happen. Probs worth remembering it's not anyone in this thread's fault! (General observation - obvs not directed at Jparx!)

[steviewevie]

2 minutes ago, Homer said:

There is psychological need to try and find people to blame when things like this happen. Probs worth remembering it's not anyone in this thread's fault! (General observation - obvs not directed at Jparx!)

politics thread so much nicer.

[Gingerfish79]

The thread is called 'when will this shit end'. Well, we now have a date for that, at least in the short to medium term, so maybe we should park the arguments about the timescales until something changes? 

Otherwise, the thread is in danger of mirroring Brexit era Question Time, and nobody wants to do that again!

[steviewevie]

Whitty and Vallane being questioned by MPs...

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-56330945

[steviewevie]

 

[zahidf]

2 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

 

On what basis if everyone has had a jab by then? Ffs

 

Ok, more context

 

Whitty says, even allowing for the vaccination programme, there are still lots of people at risk.

He says at some point there will be a further surge in the virus.

That is just the reality, he says.

He says further deaths are expected.

But the ratio of cases to deaths will go right down, he says.

Edited March 9, 2021 by zahidf

[DeanoL]

11 hours ago, zahidf said:

Variant doomsters will be devastated

 

 

Nah, they'll be over the moon. Planning for and fearing the worst is not the same thing as actively wanting it to happen. 

1 hour ago, st dan said:

I think the issue with their stance is that reopening is obviously going to lead to more cases - everybody knows that. 

We’re currently all locked up in our houses with nowhere to go, and it really doesn’t take a genius to determine that a) if you keep people locked down then it stops the spread of the virus, and b) this isn’t sustainable for much longer for a number of reasons. So what are/were their genuine suggestions for reopening or a return to normal? By all means air their concerns if they wish - but they wouldn’t send schools back by the sounds of it, which would be more damaging than the virus itself at this stage.

We don't have to do it much longer. The entire adult population will be vaccinated in a matter of months. 

I still think the whole school thing is a red herring. The reaction to Gavan Williamson saying they might look at shorter holidays and longer school days when things are back to normal to allow kids to catch up demonstrates how much people really care about this missed education.

(Not that this whole thing hasn't really fucked over a whole generation of kids - but the mental damage of not seeing their friends, going on holiday, engaging with the world will be much more impactful than never learning about the formation of oxbow lakes)

[zahidf]

 

[Mellotr0n]

Just now, zahidf said:

 

Probably the smallest? Intriguing.

I wonder if he's answering that in purely an epidemiological way, rather than socially, as I think many are absolutely seeing the end of social distancing as by far the biggest step.

[incident]

6 minutes ago, zahidf said:

 

Nearly everything?

Just about everything I give a shit about doesn't go back to normal until the final step given that's when we lose distancing.

[stuartbert two hats]

20 minutes ago, DeanoL said:

Nah, they'll be over the moon. Planning for and fearing the worst is not the same thing as actively wanting it to happen. 

We don't have to do it much longer. The entire adult population will be vaccinated in a matter of months. 

I still think the whole school thing is a red herring. The reaction to Gavan Williamson saying they might look at shorter holidays and longer school days when things are back to normal to allow kids to catch up demonstrates how much people really care about this missed education.

(Not that this whole thing hasn't really fucked over a whole generation of kids - but the mental damage of not seeing their friends, going on holiday, engaging with the world will be much more impactful than never learning about the formation of oxbow lakes)

I bloody love me an oxbow lake.  I get unreasonably excited when going past one on a train.  Not that I've been on a train for quite a while!

[northernringo]

14 hours ago, zahidf said:

LET US GO

 

Convenient he is using figures for Sunday (ie reported on Monday) for this tweet.

Our 7 day average of deaths is certainly not 62.

[Fuzzy Afro]

41 minutes ago, incident said:

Nearly everything?

Just about everything I give a shit about doesn't go back to normal until the final step given that's when we lose distancing.

You and I care about live music, football, bigger house parties etc

 

Your average UK voter only cares if they can visit their parents for Sunday lunch and order Chinese food while watching Strictly Housewives in the Jungle. 

[Fuzzy Afro]

55 minutes ago, zahidf said:

 

I think it’s important to recognise that Whitty preparing us for a 4th wave spike in deaths shouldn’t be mistaken for him suggesting we shouldn’t be unlocking, which it no doubt will by the usual suspects.

 

He’s just preparing us for inevitable death numbers like you see with the flu, but vaccines will massively reduce the IFR. Because the NHS was never overwhelmed, we don’t know the true IFR of untreated covid (some people use the hospitalisation %, however that’s lazy for a few reasons which I’m happy to go in to if need be)

 

There will be a percentage of people not protected by the vaccine, either because they choose not to have it, it doesn’t work on them, or they weren’t offered it for whatever reason. I have no sympathy for those in the first group. Those who it doesn’t work on is obviously a much more tragic situation, but hopefully we should be able to deal with them well within NHS capacity. There will be some deaths without a doubt, but nowhere near enough to justify ongoing NPIs, especially in the summer months.

 

The million dollar question now is whether or not NPIs will be needed to protect the NHS in the next winter. My gut feeling is that they will, although not a full lockdown. The reason being that I expect a massive flu spike given that the flu has been virtually eliminated this winter. I don’t expect a lockdown next winter but restrictions could include increased hand washing (to reduce flu), face coverings (to reduce covid) and probably a gathering size limit of 6-12 people to reduce superspreading events, but I can’t see this being introduced until January 2022 to save the inevitable arguments over Christmas. 

 

 

[JoeyT]

 

 

[zahidf]

1 minute ago, JoeyT said:

 

 

TAKE THAT FAKE SAGE NERDS