Weather 2017

[Thunderstruck]

2 minutes ago, Glasto Weatherwatch said:

As a general rule, the ground churns quickly and recovers quickly. How waterlogged it is makes a difference.

So in 2014 for instance, it was muddy to start with, had almost dried out mid-Friday afternoon, then the 30 min storm ruined the site because it was already in a fragile state.

By contrast, 2008 had rain Thursday night and drizzle through Friday am and was pretty muddy. But after that it was dry and the ground was compacted flat by late Saturday.

So we have a big advantage having dry ground. Any sustained rain while the festival is on will churn it up, but if totals are low then you've got a good chance of recovery.

Trying my best to properly remember 2014, I know when we arrived on the Wednesday it was bone dry, big cracks in the ground at Darble. Then there was a big storm that made it muddy and then by sunday it was drying out if I remember? 2016 was on another planet with the mud problems.

[stuartbert two hats]

5 minutes ago, Mr.Tease said:

The  "all is not lost" posts when the forecasts clearly indicate all is lost

Depends what you mean by lost.  I've been to 97,98,05,07 and 16.

All were great.

[squirrelarmy]

1 minute ago, McCor said:

If you just looked at the pictures I can imagine mild panic but look closely at the temperature and amount of rain forecast. Nothing wrong with that in the grand scheme of things, a lot better weather than we've had in recent years.

[somecoolusername]

The heat was pretty stifling walking to work from the train station about an hour ago. Got me thinking "this would be a bit much at glastonbury"! 

We're in a much better position than this time last year

[stuartbert two hats]

4 minutes ago, robu said:

If you look closely at that forecast, it predicts the following: Wednesday cloudy with 1.4mm rain; Thursday cloudy and 0.9mm rain;  Friday cloudy and 0.6mm rain.

I'll summarise for you: it'll be a bit cloudy and you might feel a raindrop once or twice over the three days. That's not rain, so why the scaremongering?

That's just what @The Nal does.  The weather thread wouldn't be the same without his doommonging! 

[McCor]

2 minutes ago, squirrelarmy said:

If you just looked at the pictures I can imagine mild panic but look closely at the temperature and amount of rain forecast. Nothing wrong with that in the grand scheme of things, a lot better weather than we've had in recent years.

Yep! The lack of rain in the build up is the good news! If it rains over the weekend, we can cope with that. A little mud. But we won't have the pain of last year. Had a great time, but didn't get about as much, and spent most of the time looking at the floor trying not to fall. I did fall though. Several times!

[The Nal]

We all know "a little rain" is never just a little at the festival. 

I think 2013 was the only festival I've been at where there was a little rain. All the rest forecasted "a little rain", "nothing to worry about", "enough to keep the dust down" and so on yet the place turned into a fucking mudbath every time. 

Typical though, great weather for all of June and it breaks into low pressure and rain the day we get there!

Edited June 14, 2017 by The Nal

[Northern Soul]

Having never studied meteorology or owning a super computer, I have just watched a quick tutorial on YouTube and ran the data through my Commadore 64 and everything will be hunky dorey. Warm but not too hot, cloudy at times, sunny at others, a very small chance of showers but nothing to write home about. 

Enjoy your festival people. The weather will be just fine. 

[stuartbert two hats]

Just now, The Nal said:

We all know "a little rain" is never just a little at the festival. 

I think 2013 was the only festival I've been at where there was a little rain. All the rest forecasted "a little rain", "nothing to worry about", "enough to keep the dust down" and so on yet the place turned into a fucking mudbath every time. 

1999 had piffling amounts of rain.

[somecoolusername]

Just now, The Nal said:

We all know "a little rain" is never just a little at the festival. 

I think 2013 was the only festival I've been at where there was a little rain. All the rest forecasted "a little rain", "nothing to worry about", "enough to keep the dust down" and so on yet the place turned into a fucking mudbath every time. 

Even when there are a couple of downpours, 2009 style, the ground recovers quickly. I don't remember any issues that year

[Glasto Weatherwatch]

Just now, stuartbert two hats said:

1999 had piffling amounts of rain.

This potentially looks like a 99 forecast. I remember it was looking lovely week before, changed to showers a few days before, and in the end we got some light drizzle Sat and dry fest apart from that.

Wasn't too hot, dry ground, perfect.

See also: 2003.

 

[The Nal]

4 minutes ago, stuartbert two hats said:

1999 had piffling amounts of rain.

Exactly. You have to go back to a previous millennium to find a year where it was the case. 

[stuartbert two hats]

2 minutes ago, The Nal said:

Exactly. You have to go back to a previous millennium to find a year where it was the case. 

No you don't

2 minutes ago, Glasto Weatherwatch said:

This potentially looks like a 99 forecast. I remember it was looking lovely week before, changed to showers a few days before, and in the end we got some light drizzle Sat and dry fest apart from that.

Wasn't too hot, dry ground, perfect.

See also: 2003.

 

 

[richy24]

14 minutes ago, Thunderstruck said:

I have a question for more frequent glastonbury goers. 

We know that the run up to the festival is going to be dry, so by the Wednesday we should have a good starting point. What kind of conditions will make mud a concern. I remember 2014 with the heavy downpours on the friday(?) - and I thought the mud was manageable and didn't affect the enjoyment of the festival.

Last year was a different story, a real slog from start to finish!

A recent(ish) example of how quickly the ground dries out is 2013. Beautiful Wednesday, however started raining pretty steadily from about 3pm on Thursday and continued most of the evening. Ground churned up, got pretty muddy etc.

Friday I went out first thing wearing wellies to watch Beady Eye and The Hives on the Other stage, by the time The Hives had finished the ground had completely dried out so i went back and put my trainers on and didn't take them off the whole weekend.

Looking back, probably my favorite year weather-wise!

[Untz]

Oh, we are definitely peaking too soon.

I want good weather, not ok, liveable, I-guess-it'll-do weather, damnit.

[Keithy]

I'm an advocate of the School of Nal these days.

We're fucked, it'll rain and be muddy. Anything better than that is a massive bonus.

[stopwn1981]

1 minute ago, Keithy said:

I'm an advocate of the School of Nal these days.

We're fucked, it'll rain and be muddy. Anything better than that is a massive bonus.

2nd that.

[mario man]

26 minutes ago, Glasto Weatherwatch said:

This potentially looks like a 99 forecast. I remember it was looking lovely week before, changed to showers a few days before, and in the end we got some light drizzle Sat and dry fest apart from that.

Wasn't too hot, dry ground, perfect.

See also: 2003.

 

Good-time Sunshine then rather than Deeply Unpleasant?! 

[Glasto Weatherwatch]

1 minute ago, mario man said:

Good-time Sunshine then rather than Deeply Unpleasant?! 

Nicely cloudy

[mjsell]

2015 dried out super quick also. after a sharp shower mid afternoon.

[Deaf Nobby Burton]

Last year was the perfect storm for horrendous mud, prolonged rain for two weeks before, then rain ever day during the festival just at the point the mud started to dry a little. It then made the mud runny (which is actually ok) before it then dried into the glue like mud, repeat ad nauseam.

[Trout Mask Replica]

2009 beautiful Weds, rain started on Thursday evening. Heavy rain all night, drizzle all morning Friday. Ground was solid again by the Friday evening. 

A good dry start is everything, I didn't find the ground too bad in 2014. Nowhere near like 2016 and that's not happening again. No solid days of rainfall predicted at this point. All to play for my lovelies... 

[EamerRed]

To be honest, and I don't mean to sound like a douche, but this thread is the same every day at the moment. Log on, check forecasts as an extra day is added, debate the better model, laugh at The Nal, laugh/cry due to the update, repeat.

Thing is, at what point do we think forecasts can be taken semi-reliably? Is it a case of waiting until most of them match up, or waiting until say, Sat/Sun and thinking that there's a fairly good chance that it is accurate from there?

[Franky]

 

[frostypaw]

8 minutes ago, EamerRed said:

To be honest, and I don't mean to sound like a douche, but this thread is the same every day at the moment. Log on, check forecasts as an extra day is added, debate the better model, laugh at The Nal, laugh/cry due to the update, repeat.

Thing is, at what point do we think forecasts can be taken semi-reliably? Is it a case of waiting until most of them match up, or waiting until say, Sat/Sun and thinking that there's a fairly good chance that it is accurate from there?

Unless you get into guaranteed high pressure territory - which we're all hoping for - it's all just setting a range of expectation really. There'll always be variety and time for it to change with a week long festival, but it's nice to have a rough idea

People get upset when it's not set in stone but it is very rare for it to be that certain.