Weather 2017

[The Nal]

7 minutes ago, Homer said:

I actually think there's a good chance we may all actually die.

If forecasts continue on the this downward trend (which they will) we can expect portals from other dimensions opening in the sky and giant winged serpents swooping down and snatching fully grown men from the ground.

This basically.

 

[Woffy]

Just now, vEN._. said:

I think, we alle will get stuck in the quicksand and then be burned to death El Scorchio.

If that leads to me being fossilised and then dug up in the year 3217 and displayed in the 'Mars Museum of the Dead Earth's Natural History Museum, Glastonbury Display', so be it. 

[arcade fireman]

Festival has just been moved to this weekend. Get in the car - if you get there by sun fall you may get a spot on Pennards! 

[Woffy]

1 minute ago, The Nal said:

If forecasts continue on the this downward trend (which they will) we can expect portals from other dimensions opening in the sky and giant winged serpents swooping down and snatching fully grown men from the ground.

This basically.

 

I did mention the other day that ominous Black Moon on one of the predictions on here. Terrifying. 

[Woffy]

Just now, arcade fireman said:

Festival has just been moved to this weekend. Get in the car - if you get there by sun fall you may get a spot on Pennards! 

Total bollocks. Pennards is always full by noon on the Wednesday the week before the gates open. 

[Hugh Jass]

5 minutes ago, Woffy said:

If that leads to me being fossilised and then dug up in the year 3217 and displayed in the 'Mars Museum of the Dead Earth's Natural History Museum, Glastonbury Display', so be it. 

Coldplay are rumoured to be headlining Marstonbury 3217.

[Woffy]

Just now, Hugh Jass said:

Coldplay are rumoured to be headlining Marstonbury 3217.

Controlled by a cryogenically defrosted @CaledonianGonzo hologram master. 

[priest17]

2 minutes ago, Hugh Jass said:

Coldplay are rumoured to be headlining Marstonbury 3217.

It's not been the same since they put up the galactic fence.

[Nobody Interesting]

14 minutes ago, vEN._. said:

I think, we all will get stuck in the quicksand-like-mud and then be burned to death by El Scorchio.

We will all get stuck in quick sand like mud that sucks us in but leaves our heads protruding until after Sunday. I pity those poor sould stuck on the Pyramid field with no escape from Ed.

[squirrelarmy]

3 minutes ago, priest17 said:

It's not been the same since they put up the galactic fence.

Seeing as you have this information already I can only assume that you are from the future. 

Can you please tell us the weather for next weekend?

[alibear]

Has the Phil Jones-ometer been in play this year? I think we're currently looking at something like this.

 

[willsnewman]

3 minutes ago, Nobody Interesting said:

We will all get stuck in quick sand like mud that sucks us in but leaves our heads protruding until after Sunday. I pity those poor sould stuck on the Pyramid field with no escape from Ed.

Took pity on you? Took a piss on me.

[Glasto Weatherwatch]

06Z run looking good so far

[DownboundTrain52]

19 minutes ago, The Nal said:

If forecasts continue on the this downward trend (which they will) we can expect portals from other dimensions opening in the sky and giant winged serpents swooping down and snatching fully grown men from the ground.

This basically.

 

What about mostly grown men?

[Hugh Jass]

13 minutes ago, Woffy said:

Controlled by a cryogenically defrosted @CaledonianGonzo hologram master. 

The entire audience will be made of holograms, you'll be scanned on entry this year to be used at future events.

Except for Russy, whose head will be preserved in a jar so that he can forever complain about it not being as good as it used to be.

Edited June 14, 2017 by Hugh Jass

[Crazyfool01]

by the monday after the festival you will know what the weather will be like 

[jfaragher]

4 minutes ago, p.pete said:

Have to say, I appreciate you putting the code thing alongside it so that it's readable - and I do appreciate the effort that goes into it.  My guess is the huge red wedge to that left will get thicker for the relevant days as we get closer to the festival - or one of the other wedge colours will dominate if that's what we're due for at that point.  When you have 6 options and they all have similar odds, it means there's no consensus.  

I'd definitely love to see this graph in about 4 or 5 days time @jfaragher

So a bit more context.  Some broad detail about the methodology here.  All of those numbers, right up to the five,have relatively little rain in them compared to previous years.  I think the worst you can see if ~7mm of rain in 24 hours on the current forecasts.  For me, >5mm would be "time to put on a jacket" and >10mm would be "time to think about some shelter" if it looked persistent.  7mm is annoying light rain for a few hours, or a medium heavy shower.  Caveat - there is a bit of geographical smoothing happenswith the method I have used, and it also tends to remove any significant outlier forecasts.  Looking at the data in detail for the festival location, for Sat there is a spread in the forecast of 0 to 35mm of rain, though the majority of the forecasts in the ensemble are giving <7mm and the mean is ~2mm, that 35mm is a massive outlier

Basically, these numbers are a bit of weather nerdery to add to the fun.  I've used a methodology that provides some interesting information about likelihoods.  As you would expect, the spread is broader as you get towards the end of the forecast.  I'll update this for a couple more days, but then the short range forecasts will start to kick in and be more useful.

 

TL;DR - geeking out, probably fairly useless

[Thunderstruck]

12 minutes ago, Glasto Weatherwatch said:

06Z run looking good so far

Yup,

dry and warm and sunny all the way until Sunday when storms arrive.

[Mr.Tease]

2 hours ago, stuartbert two hats said:

Depends what you mean by lost.  I've been to 97,98,05,07 and 16.

All were great.

I was being tongue in cheek, as was Glasto Weatherwatch 

[Lubic]

Just imagine if the festival was this week...

Dunno why I'm torturing myself like this

[Dave_c]

We all know what will happen, it will be sun kissed bliss right up until Tuesday, then the apocalypse will occur through to the weekend then sun kissed bliss on the Monday. That's what I'm mentally preparing for so anything other than the above is a bonus.

[airwaves]

My reading is this:-

 

Edited June 14, 2017 by airwaves
better, direct link

[stopwn1981]

20 minutes ago, Lubic87 said:

Just imagine if the festival was this week...

Dunno why I'm torturing myself like this

It'd be too hot and we'd all die of heat exhaustion/dehydration.

[Dave_c]

1 minute ago, stopwn1981 said:

It'd be too hot and we'd all die of heat exhaustion/dehydration.

 Blasphemy!

[Aragorn]

latest GFS run is pretty good.