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arcade fireman

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arcade fireman last won the day on February 20 2016

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About arcade fireman

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    Festival Freak

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  1. What do they class as the peak? If it's peak pressure on the hospital system, this is a fantasy. Cases are still rising 20-25% day on day, and these would only be starting to feed into the system on 12th April. If it's new cases then possible, though I would still be sceptical.
  2. It would be useful for HCWs for sure. But outside of this in terms of social distancing it wouldn't be useful for a while. Because outside of HCWs social distancing is a societal thing - just because a bunch of people have +ve antibodies it doesn't mean they can open the bars/restaurants again if loads don't. Plus people wouldn't know who has antibodies and doesn't so people would naturally want to socially distance anyway. If suppression fails as a strategy then it may help later on however - doing random sampling could provide govt with an estimate of how many people have had it but who weren't tested or even symptomatic. If a large number - say a majority - have been shown to have +ve antibodies then this would certainly influence decisions to relax restrictions. And I think 60% is the figure where herd immunity would be assumed.
  3. IMO broadly, two ways this will go. Not an epidemiologist but have some working knowledge from the public health lectures I slept through during my medical degree. Adapted a bit from something I wrote elsewhere.. Some of it depends on how successful suppression is at bringing down the rate of transmission. This is not an easy thing to do and whilst we should absolutely do everything we can to flatten the curve, I'm not convinced how successful it'll be. It's a sobering thought but I think the most likely scenario is still herd immunity albeit - since policy changes two weeks ago - not by design. Italy locked down on March 9th. They have very strict restrictions - more so than us. This has reduced their day on day rise in cases from 25% day on day increase to 8% day on day increase. France's cases are still increasing 11-13% despite needing a piece of paper to show police where you're going. The % death rates increases day on day are decreasing too - but the absolute numbers have climbed so much they're still devastating numbers in Italy and Spain. Only this is still a problem. It's still significant exponential growth, albeit a less steep curve. The hospitals and ICUs still get overwhelmed eventually with an 8% rise. The reason why there's still a large rise day on day is partly because the virus lives pretty well on surfaces or fomites as they're termed in this context. Also quite a few people still do need to get out and go to work. So people still bring the virus back home to their families. What lockdown measures could the Italians be putting in that's even stricter than what they have currently? The Chinese model simply isn't an option in Europe. Currently the UK is on 14,000 cases. There is very likely considerably more than that who have been infected. But we will go with 14,000. Currently we are growing 20-25% cases per day. For the next three months, if we drop down to 15% day on day growth for a week, 8% day on day growth for a month then we grow at 4% day on day for the rest of that time? This would be a huge reduction in % increase and you'd think this would be a successful lockdown. 3 million detected cases based on current testing schedules after 3 months. 180k deaths on current case fatality rate - the actual fatality rate is nowhere near this much for Covid-19, but since we're only testing people in hospital the CFR will be higher. We will very likely be testing more by then so the CFR will decrease, but number of cases will increase with it. Halve this - consider likely older people might not get it so much if not leaving the house - and it's still a disaster. 2.5% growth over the following 3 months gets us to 27 million cases. By this point herd immunity very likely will have been reached by accident rather than design - indeed it likely will have been reached long before this due to the large numbers of undetected cases. This is also where the blood tests come in. It's very likely that from a few weeks time our number of cases will shoot up as it'll reveal people who've been asymptomatic carriers or who have been undiagnosed. How many? Who knows. But it also isn't the game changer that people say it is - absolutely it has uses eg HCWs, but antibodies take a few days to show up and so it won't necessarily do that much to stop asymptomatic transmission. It may be useful later on in this scenario to estimate when herd immunity is reached, though we still are unsure how long any immunity would last. Once this point is reached, normal life would essentially resume in the UK. There would still be the odd Covid-19 case, but it wouldn't spread as it'd keep running into people who'd already had it assuming immunity for at least some time. But the deaths and cost to the NHS would be huge. The second scenario is suppression is achieved. Over the next few months we flatten the curve and then mass testing allows us to identify asymptomatic carriers better. We can identify people who need to be isolated more easily. We bring down number of new cases per day to a few thousand/day, then a few hundred/day, then a few dozen a day which public health authorities can track/trace. Cases are disproportionately geared towards younger healthier people as older people have been staying in. After some time some bars/restaurants may be able to open again with caveats. But in this scenario there'd need to be still significant restrictions until a vaccine was found. A second surge is still a big threat in this scenario as some Asian countries are finding. Another option is whether antiviral medications can either act as prophylaxis or easy treatment, but IMO this is a longer shot than a vaccine. A vaccine will be found, but it'll take time. Likely large scale events like Glasto will be off the cards until this point and there would also be significant travel restrictions as new outbreaks could start from imported cases. Maybe travel to certain other countries where it had been stamped out would be allowed.
  4. China won't be holding anything like Glastonbury for a very long while. There is not a chance this is "beaten" before June. We may well see the other side of a peak, but an event like Glastonbury could easily cause a second peak.
  5. Agreed with this. Glastonbury unfortunately is pretty much the perfect petri dish to spark a second spike nationally even if the peak hits before late June. Close contact with someone for 15 minutes is thought sufficient to pass it on. Think how many acts each person sees, night time activities etc etc and each time they're in close contact with a different group of people. Even if out of 200k on site only 2% have it - very optimistic for later on this year - that'd be 4,000 attendees who would each be passing it on to multiple people over the weekend. And then you have these attendees going back all around the country, getting coaches back together and infecting their local population.
  6. Hopefully this becomes the fallow year at least if/when its cancelled? Not sure what it'd mean for GFL though given money will already have been spent on this years event 🙁
  7. Sorry yes - that's my mistake! But the principle still stands. New cases will probably be declining by then. But a second surge is what the govt will want to avoid at all costs. Glasto is pretty much the perfect environment to contribute towards this.
  8. Morbid is talking about people dying. This is talking about a festival getting cancelled. I think it's much better people don't have false hope.
  9. Had Glasto been in August then conceivably there could have been a way. Maybe. But expecting a festival with >200,000 on site to happen in 2.5 months when the govt is going to ban >500 capacity events from next week is totally unrealistic unfortunately.
  10. There is absolutely not a chance the festival is going ahead this year. Very simple reasons here - YES there could be a peak reached before the end of June. However two things - firstly the sheer uncertainty will make things very difficult to organise. And secondly even if the peak is reached, huge mass gatherings like Glastonbury would be absolutely prime ways that a second surge could happen. All it would take is a small percentage of those infected and it would spread like wildfire again with people taking these infections back all around the country. Much bigger risk than PL football.
  11. Sorry but this is all sorts of wrong. The containment phase did nothing because it was always doomed to fail once transmission had spread to so many countries. There was no keeping the virus out of the UK. The delay phase should do just that to an extent - though to what degree this is successful is an unknown. Identifying these cases as Covid-19 positive earlier would not have changed their treatment. Treatment is largely supportive care, responding to changes in clinical condition just like any virus eg influenza. It may have meant they were placed in isolation earlier, but this would more be to the benefit of other patients. Screening all travellers is not a panacea. Firstly you will still miss plenty of cases - plenty will not present with symptoms. Some will still be in an incubation period so won't show them. Others won't report if they have a cough or sore throat as they won't want to be isolated. Those who you do end up testing need to isolate themselves until results are back - this means they won't be able to go to work, maybe see family etc etc, it would have a huge effect on logsitics, economy etc etc. Who funds the sick days? For countries with relatively few arriving travellers like Slovakia it may make sense, but these containment measures will have not as big an effect here as the volume of people arriving in UK daily is so vast. The health officials in the UK do know what they're doing - I don't exactly have confidence in our government but they do seem to be leaving it to the experts for now. Of course, the US is an entirely different matter...Trump doesn't seem to be happy to leave it to the experts there.
  12. This is my tenth time of trying and the tenth time that I personally have got through. This time it feels a bit different though - living in Australia and maybe not even 50% chance I'll personally be going as next year is up in the air for a lot of reasons, though my friends who were part of the order definitely are. Felt a bit strange to be on that ticket page and not feel the adrenaline pumping as usual though...
  13. Remember if you're desperate to go there are four bites at the cherry, not one. Two sales periods (October and April) each with a coach sale and a regular sale. If you really want to go then it's worth securing a coach ticket if you can try on the Thursday with the Sunday still left if you didn't get through. April resale the odds aren't too bad - although there's obviously a lot fewer tickets there's also far fewer people trying, a lot of people have made their summer/festival plans by then. I don't understand the system though. I personally have got tickets ten times in a row (as opposed to others in my group), so I'm not sure what I'm doing that they're not!
  14. Hey, we are buying tickets but I'm not 100% if I'm going (live in Australia and have a lot on next year). If I'm lead booker and I don't pay my deposit my friends can still go right? Have been to plenty of Glastos before but never been unsure if I'll go or not!
  15. Fuck McDonalds, I'd be manning the Monsanto Tent.
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