The Weather Thread 2023

[Henrik]

We are doing very well indeed here. 

I've never known the weather thread to be so tame. 

[Justcalledtosay]

DRINK IT IN!!!

[Vulpes vulpes]

Positive mental attitude made this happen.

Posi vibes for the win!

[Sasperella2]

3 minutes ago, briddj said:

Right, if the 06Z treats us well it will be absolute delight!

THROUGH TO GATES OPEN

Still quiet a bit of rain through Sunday, but that certainly comes as no surprise anymore.

Monday and Tuesday completely dry yet again. This is an excellent start on that from with great drying temps of 21 both days.

When the gates open it's dry and 18 degrees. Very pleasant.

Through Wednesday itself, some very, very light afternoon rain - won't notice it. Highs of 21.

THURSDAY

Completely dry, highs of 22.

FRIDAY

Some rain around at 6amish, but really nothing of any concern. Really a completely dry day after that, highs of 22.

SATURDAY

High pressure building in now. Is this a firm trend?

Completely dry, highs of 22.

SUNDAY

Completely dry, highs of 23.

SUMMARY

In your face, 06Z! Another excellent run. We've only had one bad run now out of the last 7.

But let's not get complacent!

 

 

 

 

 

 

Wooohhh yeeehhh

I'm of to a wedding now so will be offline all day. This is great news to sign off too. 

Have a great day y'all! 

[Bike_Like_A_Mum]

Yippeeeee, this is looking like a great pattern!!! 🥳

[watsonjm]

God I love this thread, the ups the down.  Nearly in tears after that last run.

T minus 4 days till I'm on the way!

[MEGATRONICMEATWAGON]

STICK!

[RichieSpenno]

Sticky sticky stick stick!

[frostypaw]

31 minutes ago, Bike_Like_A_Mum said:

@FuzzyDunlopI do hope you're coming to the efests meet up. It's cracked me up the controversy youve caused on this thread lol

Would be a fine thing to share a nice cooling pint with another sufferer of what I call true scottish blood. I'm with him on the whole - past 25° and sunshine and I know it slows me down and addles my brain. Sure I know how to cope up to much higher but it quickly becomes cope, not revel in. 

Will still always prefer that to mudbath but there's a vast distance between mudbath and constantly blazing. Most years have seen some rain, and been just fine and dandy. 

[Clarence Clemons]

the weather is.....

And that is what I want, okay?

[rebus]

31 minutes ago, FuzzyDunlop said:

Unfortunately no can do. I am going to be in one of the Freezers in the co op

[Jacko45]

Me after that last run

 

[maelzoid]

Dry with highs in the low 20s is close to perfect. Add in some cloud cover until 10am to keep the tent cool and I'm rocking.

So yes, I will stick.

[The Toxic Avenger]

37 minutes ago, FuzzyDunlop said:

I do appreciate the defence, but I haven't taken this as bullying.

On page 149 of this thread, you were called a c**t.  The guy who called you a c**t was 'playing to the gallery,' i.e. the cowardly tactic of saying what you think will go down well with your audience.  He wasn't wrong: 5 forum regulars decided this was worthy of a thumbs-up.  It wasn't until he was called out on this that he backtracked with his Jeremy Clarkson 'it was only a joke' defence.

I'm genuinely pleased you don't feel bullied in this thread, but some of us spectators are finding the in-group/out-group bullshit a bit unpleasant.  The NFR NFC thing was born over a decade ago when some of then then-regulars of this forum were having a laugh knowingly portraying themselves as superstitious maniacs, i.e. it was self-deprecating humour.  Unfortunately, this throwaway line was turned into a deeply non-funny long-running trope, which attracted the genuinely hard-of-thinking who actually believe that one person's preferences for weather can actually be deemed selfish and punishable.  In years gone by the NFR NFC bullshit net was spread even wider: all of us using the 'science thread' (which is what this thread was referred to as) were called c**ts, and the current regular that did this was proudly unrepentant, even after being called out.

[DeanoL]

35 minutes ago, Jose Pose said:

I think you’re getting a bit confused, I never once even mentioned rain and I said rain is normal, I was simply making the point that you’re going to be bitterly disappointed if you’re hoping for cool weather in BST as more often than not you’ll be disappointed.

Your stats for the 11 days over 25 also only go up to 2020, three years ago. In 2022 12 European countries broke temperature records, with the average being 1.9c above the averages recorded in your period of 1991 - 2020. Unless you have a very short memory, you may also recall the UK hit 40 degrees for the first time in history in July of last year, and 2022 was the warmest year ever in the UK.

If you think we’re only going to average 11 days above 25 degrees over the next 10 or so years then you really haven’t been paying much attention to what’s been going on in the world.

That's true. But the flip side of it is that you'd surely agree most of those hot days tend to happen in July and Early August right? It's a really rough calculation.

And yeah 2022 was very hot, doesn't necessarily mean 2023 will be. I mean, so far looks like, but it could just be a miserable cold July and August. 

Obviously global warming is a thing but we shouldn't confuse steady creep in world temperatures with the abnormally hot few summers we've had the past few years.

32 minutes ago, fraybentos1 said:

that says daily mean?

You have to look at the dataset babes. Not just the pretty picture on the front page. 😄 If you click through to "download" they have Mean, Min and Max data sets which you can then download and put in a spreadsheet or stats program and generate whatever reports you want.

All I'm trying to say is I hope it doesn't rain, and I also hope it stays sub-25C all festival. And I know which one of those is most likely to not happen. There is of course, looking at current forecasts, a significant chance of both!

Edited June 15, 2023 by DeanoL

[stopwn1981]

[Trunks1993]

#tooearly

Warm and showery is my prediction. Really hoping for trainers all week.

[Glasto Weatherwatch]

16 minutes ago, briddj said:

Right, if the 06Z treats us well it will be absolute delight!

THROUGH TO GATES OPEN

Still quite a bit of rain through Sunday, but that certainly comes as no surprise anymore.

Monday and Tuesday completely dry yet again. This is an excellent start with great drying temps of 21 both days.

When the gates open it's dry and 18 degrees. Very pleasant.

Through Wednesday itself, some very, very light afternoon rain - won't notice it. Highs of 21.

THURSDAY

Completely dry, highs of 22.

FRIDAY

Some rain around at 6amish, but really nothing of any concern. Really a completely dry day after that, highs of 22.

SATURDAY

High pressure building in now. Is this a firm trend?

Completely dry, highs of 22.

SUNDAY

Completely dry, highs of 23.

SUMMARY

In your face, 06Z! Another excellent run. We've only had one bad run now out of the last 7.

But let's not get complacent!

 

 

 

 

 

 

I think this is undercooking the trend of heavy(ish) rain coming in on Friday and the low pressure coming in pre-weekend. It misses us in this run but the location is meaningless this far out. So I'd say this is a downgrade on the last run and something to watch for.

[BambooShanks]

12 minutes ago, briddj said:

SUMMARY

In your face, 06Z! Another excellent run. We've only had one bad run now out of the last 7.

But let's not get complacent!

I'm getting very cautiously optimistic.  The runs are becoming more consistent and the various models are starting to agree more.

I'm still half expecting a bad run to appear in the next few days but it is reassuring that the majority of the ensembles are pointing to dry, warm weather

 

[Jose Pose]

6 minutes ago, DeanoL said:

That's true. But the flip side of it is that you'd surely agree most of those hot days tend to happen in July and Early August right? It's a really rough calculation.

And yeah 2022 was very hot, doesn't necessarily mean 2023 will be. I mean, so far looks like, but it could just be a miserable cold July and August. 

Obviously global warming is a thing but we shouldn't confuse steady creep in world temperatures with the abnormally hot few summers we've had the past few years.

You have to look at the dataset babes. Not just the pretty picture on the front page. 😄 If you click through to "download" they have Mean, Min and Max data sets which you can then download and put in a spreadsheet or stats program and generate whatever reports you want.

All I'm trying to say is I hope it doesn't rain, and I also hope it stays sub-25C all festival. And I know which one of those is most likely to not happen. There is of course, looking at current forecasts, a significant chance of both!

But those stats are useful for telling someone going to Glastonbury in approximately 1998 they would have a 50% chance of temps hitting 25+. Here in 2023 and going forward they don’t serve much purpose.

[Jacko45]

1 minute ago, Glasto Weatherwatch said:

I think this is undercooking the trend of heavy(ish) rain coming in on Friday and the low pressure coming in pre-weekend. It misses us in this run but the location is meaningless this far out. So I'd say this is a downgrade on the last run and something to watch for.

 

Me after this run:

 

[mungo57]

even Fuzzy can't be too displeased with that last run.

 

I stuck at the previous run, will take either of the last 2!

[Avalon_Fields]

I've got to the point of a relaxed Zen attitude. Throw whatever you want at me, I'm ready.

[Alvoram]

35 minutes ago, stuartbert two hats said:

Just to clarify - you mean this coming Sunday, not the Sunday of the festival, right?

Yep.

Fest Sunday looking good across several runs now, finger’s coming!!!

[Bike_Like_A_Mum]

3 minutes ago, Avalon_Fields said:

I've got to the point of a relaxed Zen attitude. Throw whatever you want at me, I'm ready.

And there we go...the level we all strive to achieve in this rollercoaster:

ACCEPTANCE

Some get there sooner than others

Edited June 15, 2023 by Bike_Like_A_Mum