When will this shit end?

[Fuzzy Afro]

2 minutes ago, WestCountryGirl said:

Yeah, that's been catching me a lot this week. I'll think of something from *the before times* and think "gah, I really just want to go out, get drunk and have a dance" and then I remember and I realise just how far away we are from that being a thing again. Or at least a thing I can feel safe and responsible to do.

Then I'll think about making plans to see my family. And then I remember. And then I remember I'm in the heart of a hotspot right now and it won't be 'safe' for who knows how long. 

It's a weird old time alright. I'm just trying to focus on the things I'm fortunate to have right now.

I think the feeling of authoritarianism is the biggest thing for me. My parents live in Glasgow, so I legally can’t visit them at the moment. I’ve chosen not to for a while because staying away is responsible and keeps them safe, but I always knew I had the option if I really wanted to. Now it’s illegal. And that really makes it feel so much worse. 

[shoptildrop]

I have to say I had a wobble earlier in the week when they basically sayings its gonna be up to 6 months.... sure I knew it wasn't going to go away anytime soon but 6 months put us to March and I have 2 rescheduled gigs one in Feb and one in March but I cannot see them happening now which really made me sad  

[onthebeach]

3 hours ago, ace56blaa said:

do you have a link for this, not questioning your sources, just interested in the data myself

Similar info on the latest surveillance report published today - page 19 - hope this helps

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/921561/Weekly_COVID19_Surveillance_Report_week_39_FINAL.pdf

[FestivalJamie]

13 minutes ago, onthebeach said:

Similar info on the latest surveillance report published today - page 19 - hope this helps

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/921561/Weekly_COVID19_Surveillance_Report_week_39_FINAL.pdf

Educational settings!! I don't need anymore fear!! 😷

[onthebeach]

Just now, FestivalJamie said:

Educational settings!! I don't need anymore fear!! 😷

Sorry - was passing on the info regarding restaurants for another poster - didn’t mean to be insensitive to your concerns 😞

[Fuzzy Afro]

I’ve just realised that a literal monkey trained to throw darts at a board of random policy options wouldn’t have made as much of a mess of this pandemic than the UK government. 

[squirrelarmy]

6 minutes ago, Fuzzy Afro said:

I’ve just realised that a literal monkey trained to throw darts at a board of random policy options wouldn’t have made as much of a mess of this pandemic than the UK government. 

How did you get an invite to a cabinet meeting?

[Toilet Duck]

2 hours ago, zahidf said:

@Toilet Duck? As per my previous one above, seems to show some higher natural immunity 

Had a flick through this one and the previous one...

The first one adds another piece to the pre-existing immunity argument. Previous studies have looked at t-cells (of which there are various types with different functions, two of which are direct killing of virally infected cells and activation of b-cells to make antibodies)...those studies showed that t-cells that can recognise SARS-CoV-2 exist in blood samples that were taken a few years ago, so could never have been exposed to this virus. Some studies have found about 30% of samples are like this, some have found as high as 80%...this study looked at antibodies and b-cells. They found no evidence of cross-reactive antibodies, but did find memory b-cells that made antibodies that cross reacted with SARS-CoV-2 and the common CoVs. It suggests that in addition to maintaining a t-cell repertoire that can target this virus, we may also have antibody producing b-cells that can target it too...the caveat here is that small numbers of samples were used (but this is a pretty in depth study)...

The second one is most probably related. It suggests that a huge jump in seropositivity occurred in Tokyo among asymptomatic individuals over the summer (with nearly half the participants having antibodies to the virus, suggesting widespread infection without symptoms). My gut feeling is that all the information we are finding out about cross-reactive immunity is the underlying factor determining this. Taken together with the first study, it reinforces the suggestion that pre-existing immunity does not stop you from catching the virus, but does stop you from developing disease. There’s still gaps in our knowledge, and nobody has yet correlated pre-existing immunity directly with outcomes, but it certainly looks like there’s something to it. As noted somewhere earlier in the thread, I don’t know if this will change too much in terms of high risk individuals, indeed, it may neatly explain where we are (lots of asymptotic cases, but eventually spilling into the vulnerable population, meaning vaccine still needed to protect those whose pre-existing immunity has waned). 

Edited September 25, 2020 by Toilet Duck

[Brownie30]

Well, I'm moving into a house share in London for the first time on 10th October. The timing couldn't be any more bonkers. 

[steviewevie]

 

[stuartbert two hats]

19 minutes ago, Toilet Duck said:

Had a flick through this one and the previous one...

The first one adds another piece to the pre-existing immunity argument. Previous studies have looked at t-cells (of which there are various types with different functions, two of which are direct killing of virally infected cells and activation of b-cells to make antibodies)...those studies showed that t-cells that can recognise SARS-CoV-2 exist in blood samples that were taken a few years ago, so could never have been exposed to this virus. Some studies have found about 30% of samples are like this, some have found as high as 80%...this study looked at antibodies and b-cells. They found no evidence of cross-reactive antibodies, but did find memory b-cells that made antibodies that cross reacted with SARS-CoV-2 and the common CoVs. It suggests that in addition to maintaining a t-cell repertoire that can target this virus, we may also have antibody producing b-cells that can target it too...the caveat here is that small numbers of samples were used (but this is a pretty in depth study)...

The second one is most probably related. It suggests that a huge jump in seropositivity occurred in Tokyo among asymptomatic individuals over the summer (with nearly half the participants having antibodies to the virus, suggesting widespread infection without symptoms). My gut feeling is that all the information we are finding out about cross-reactive immunity is the underlying factor determining this. Taken together with the first study, it reinforces the suggestion that pre-existing immunity does not stop you from catching the virus, but does stop you from developing disease. There’s still gaps in our knowledge, and nobody has yet correlated pre-existing immunity directly with outcomes, but it certainly looks like there’s something to it. As noted somewhere earlier in the thread, I don’t know if this will change too much in terms of high risk individuals, indeed, it may neatly explain where we are (lots of asymptotic cases, but eventually spilling into the vulnerable population, meaning vaccine still needed to protect those whose pre-existing immunity has waned). 

Interesting that the Oxford vaccine challenge study with chimps (albeit ba small group) showed a total lack of disease and no change in viral shedding. This seems highly consistent with the idea that having immunity from COVID doesn't stop you from spreading it.

Does this mean we may have a big problem in terms of herd immunity in the traditional sense, that prevents a virus from spreading, like for instance smallpox? Long term worst case scenario, could we end up with a functioning society where people aren't generally dying, but the once novel virus is highly endemic in the population, with infection able to reoccur as soon as the antibodies have faded? Thus proving an everlasting threat to the immunocompromised?

But that doesn't seem consistent with the anecdotes of people exposed to carriers who should be infectious, but just never test positive. What's different for those people? Are we eventually going to evolve our immunity to the point where whilst it never fully goes away, it's nowhere near as prevalent in the population as the paragraph above suggests?

[Andre91]

41 minutes ago, Fuzzy Afro said:

I’ve just realised that a literal monkey trained to throw darts at a board of random policy options wouldn’t have made as much of a mess of this pandemic than the UK government. 

It was the best of times, it was the blurst of times. 

[FestivalJamie]

52 minutes ago, onthebeach said:

Sorry - was passing on the info regarding restaurants for another poster - didn’t mean to be insensitive to your concerns 😞

No you weren’t insensitive at all please don’t worry it wasn’t against you at all!!

Im just a stressful person and I’ve started panicking the last few days! I need to relax!

Is it possible the government close unis down though, started to worry about that too with all these outbreaks?

[Crazyfool01]

 

[Toilet Duck]

3 minutes ago, stuartbert two hats said:

Interesting that the Oxford vaccine challenge study with chimps (albeit ba small group) showed a total lack of disease and no change in viral shedding. This seems highly consistent with the idea that having immunity from COVID doesn't stop you from spreading it.

Does this mean we may have a big problem in terms of herd immunity in the traditional sense, that prevents a virus from spreading, like for instance smallpox? Long term worst case scenario, could we end up with a functioning society where people aren't generally dying, but the once novel virus is highly endemic in the population, with infection able to reoccur as soon as the antibodies have faded? Thus proving an everlasting threat to the immunocompromised?

But that doesn't seem consistent with the anecdotes of people exposed to carriers who should be infectious, but just never test positive. What's different for those people? Are we eventually going to evolve our immunity to the point where whilst it never fully goes away, it's nowhere near as prevalent in the population as the paragraph above suggests?

Yep, pretty much! (To the first couple of paragraphs, no idea on the last point, we honestly don’t know how prevalent the other CoVs are as we’ve never really needed to look, so where this one might settle is anyone’s guess at this stage!)

So, this seems to be a feature of coronavirus biology and how it interacts with us. We have fairly high levels of immunity to the other circulating CoVs, but still get infected with them. Mostly, we don’t even know we are infected with them, but our immune systems don’t function at a steady state. Loads of things influence how well it functions at any given point in time, fairly innocuous things like how much sleep we get and a whole bunch of other things, so from time to time, we develop mild disease from the other CoVs. My suspicion is that this is exactly where we will end up with this one. Never immune in a sterilising sense, always susceptible to infection, for most people this will mean asymptomatic infection, for others, mild disease, and for the vulnerable population, given what we’ve seen this virus can do, a serious problem that will need a good vaccine or a spectacularly good treatment to improve outcomes.

[Fuzzy Afro]

5 minutes ago, FestivalJamie said:

No you weren’t insensitive at all please don’t worry it wasn’t against you at all!!

Im just a stressful person and I’ve started panicking the last few days! I need to relax!

Is it possible the government close unis down though, started to worry about that too with all these outbreaks?

I don’t see that. Last thing they want is thousands of students with the virus going back to their hometowns. 

[stuartbert two hats]

11 minutes ago, Fuzzy Afro said:

I don’t see that. Last thing they want is thousands of students with the virus going back to their hometowns. 

Makes you wonder if getting all the students to mix, away from their families is a herd immunity play? #tinfoil

[FestivalJamie]

4 minutes ago, stuartbert two hats said:

Makes you wonder if getting all the students to mix, away from their families is a herd immunity play? #tinfoil

I think so. But I’m not taking part in it. Hand sanitiser and mask for me

[stuartbert two hats]

7 minutes ago, FestivalJamie said:

I think so. But I’m not taking part in it. Hand sanitiser and mask for me

This probably sounds bonkers, but catching the virus is probably the best thing that could happen to you. You're young and incredibly unlikely to get ill and then you'll have immunity.

I'd still stick to your sanitiser, but if your new housemates try to lead you astray, try not to worry too much. You'll be away from family who might be at risk and are in the perfect demographic to throw it off without a problem.

PS I have been drinking.

Edited September 25, 2020 by stuartbert two hats

[guypjfreak]

1 hour ago, Simsy said:

Oh good, we don't need that any more 🙄

 

We've tried to get a test.. All it gives us is the iow lol.. Yea I'll just 80 ferry fare for a swab test.. Dick heads.. 

[FestivalJamie]

5 minutes ago, stuartbert two hats said:

This probably sounds bonkers, but catching the virus is probably the best thing that could happen to you. You're young and incredibly unlikely to get ill and then you'll have immunity.

I'd still stick to your sanitiser, but if your new housemates try to lead you astray, try not to worry too much. You'll be away from family who might be at risk and are in the perfect demographic to throw it off without a problem.

PS I have been drinking.

Don’t want to pass it into anyone vulnerable in the community or any other vulnerable students or staff at the uni. In my opinion it would be very ignorant and selfish to catch the virus.

I have also had one of my friends hospitalised, she is 19 years old and no underlying health conditions and she was on a ventilator back in March/April time. I don’t want to take that risk.

The uni I’m going to is a retirement town meaning a lot of the wider community is going to be old and vulnerable. I don’t want to risk passing something to someone on the bus or in the shops.

But yeah, my personal risk is low, but I don’t really fancy getting I’ll to be honest. Not gonna be wearing a mask around my household but I will be around campus and not going to any parties though!

[DeanoL]

34 minutes ago, zahidf said:

Tbf according to ONS only 5% of infections is traced back to eating out

Not "infections, "outbreaks". It's because "outbreaks" where loads of people get infected from one place tend to happen when people are spending lots of time in contact with the same people: so yeah, if someone in a workplace or care home gets it, they then pass it on to others there, who pass it on to others and so on. Because the same people are going to the same places every day.

Most pubs and restaurants are not like that. It's not the same people there every night. So you don't get outbreaks, but you do get infections. A few people in close contact with one person there gets infected. They pass it on to a few people in another pub they go to a few days later, and so on. No identifiable outbreak location but still lots of people getting it.

[stuartbert two hats]

4 minutes ago, FestivalJamie said:

Don’t want to pass it into anyone vulnerable in the community or any other vulnerable students or staff at the uni. In my opinion it would be very ignorant and selfish to catch the virus.

I have also had one of my friends hospitalised, she is 19 years old and no underlying health conditions and she was on a ventilator back in March/April time. I don’t want to take that risk.

The uni I’m going to is a retirement town meaning a lot of the wider community is going to be old and vulnerable. I don’t want to risk passing something to someone on the bus or in the shops.

But yeah, my personal risk is low, but I don’t really fancy getting I’ll to be honest. Not gonna be wearing a mask around my household but I will be around campus and not going to any parties though!

No, I know you don't want to catch it and I certainly don't recommend it. But I bet your mental health would improve afterwards if you did.

[Simsy]

8 minutes ago, guypjfreak said:

We've tried to get a test.. All it gives us is the iow lol.. Yea I'll just 80 ferry fare for a swab test.. Dick heads.. 

I don't think you're supposed to go on the ferry if you're symptomatic anyway, so mainlanders being directed to IOW test centres or islanders being directed mainland test centres are fine as long as they've got their own boat!

[guypjfreak]

Just now, Simsy said:

I don't think you're supposed to go on the ferry if you're symptomatic anyway, so mainlanders being directed to IOW test centres or islanders being directed mainland test centres are fine as long as they've got their own boat!

Lololol I could aways go Dover.. There's loads of boats been left on beach's this year.. Grab one and head to Ventnor lol