When will this shit end?

[stuartbert two hats]

If it is variant driven, no wonder India is in such trouble. On the surface it seems like it's much more infectious than our variant.

[Fuzzy Afro]

22 minutes ago, stuartbert two hats said:

If it is variant driven, no wonder India is in such trouble. On the surface it seems like it's much more infectious than our variant.

 

 

This Belgian scientists suggests a 60% transmission advantage over B117 (Kent variant) which would make it more than twice as transmissible as the original Wuhan variant.

Edited May 11, 2021 by Fuzzy Afro

[Supernintendo Chalmers]

Are they considering locking down Bolton like they did Leicester or we not at that stage yet?

[Proposition Joe]

7 minutes ago, Supernintendo Chalmers said:

Are they considering locking down Bolton like they did Leicester or we not at that stage yet?

It needs surge testing first

[stuartbert two hats]

9 minutes ago, Supernintendo Chalmers said:

Are they considering locking down Bolton like they did Leicester or we not at that stage yet?

I think they're highly unwilling to do something like that, you know what this government is like when it comes to denial.

I hope they rapidly consider "surge vaccination" in Bolton though. Those numbers are going to get crazy high in a few weeks if they don't do something. And yes, I know that doesn't mean deaths are baked in like last time, but it's still not good to see. 

This may well affect whether we move to the final step on schedule.

Edited May 11, 2021 by stuartbert two hats

[Ozanne]

I think they were asked something like that yesterday at the briefing and the PM indicated we would still move as one. I’m not sure what would happen if things got much worse though. 

[efcfanwirral]

 

47 minutes ago, stuartbert two hats said:

If it is variant driven, no wonder India is in such trouble. On the surface it seems like it's much more infectious than our variant.

The one thing that's making me wary about it being variant driven is that we were here with Bolton and Rochdale last year. They seem to have this strange ability to make it spread in complete contrast to the rest of the country. 

Edited May 11, 2021 by efcfanwirral

[Fuzzy Afro]

19 minutes ago, Supernintendo Chalmers said:

Are they considering locking down Bolton like they did Leicester or we not at that stage yet?

 

Scotland are now preventing Moray from moving on to the next step. They aren't tightening restrictions there, but are keeping at the current level whereas the rest of the country will be relaxed from Monday.

 

The situation in parts of the North West is pretty ugly. I think they'll wait and see if these case numbers lead to hospitalisations and deaths before imposing punitive punishment on Bolton and such areas.

[zahidf]

3 minutes ago, Ozanne said:

I think they were asked something like that yesterday at the briefing and the PM indicated we would still move as one. I’m not sure what would happen if things got much worse though. 

They won't delay over just one area being high. 

[stuartbert two hats]

2 minutes ago, efcfanwirral said:

 

The one thing that's making me wary about it being variant driven is that we were here with Bolton and Rochdale last year. They seem to have this strange ability to make it spread in complete contrast to the rest of the country. 

Not like this, they didn't. The cases were never really down in the NW as the rest of the country unlocked. They didn't have a big surge of cases as cases fell everywhere else, it's more than exponential growth always looks bigger when you start from a higher number. It's different this time.

There was one place where cases went up whilst they went down everywhere else - Kent.

[Fuzzy Afro]

3 minutes ago, efcfanwirral said:

 

The one thing that's making me wary about it being variant driven is that we were here with Bolton and Rochdale last year. They seem to have this strange ability to make it spread in complete contrast to the rest of the country. 

 

Multi generation households.

 

That is a double-whammy in normal times as (a) it allows the virus to spread between generations within the household, who then go out and infect their mates and colleagues, (b) It passes to the oldest generation in the household and often doesn't end well for them.

 

The good news is problem (b) has been all but eradicated by the vaccines. Problem (a) is still an issue though, particularly in places where WFH is not common and multi generation households are.

[Ozanne]

4 minutes ago, stuartbert two hats said:

Not like this, they didn't. The cases were never really down in the NW as the rest of the country unlocked. They didn't have a big surge of cases as cases fell everywhere else, it's more than exponential growth always looks bigger when you start from a higher number. It's different this time.

There was one place where cases went up whilst they went down everywhere else - Kent.

I guess the difference now is we have given doses of vaccines to a lot of people which will be a big help in preventing the rising cases there leading to more serious problems. 
 

So far the PM has said we’ll move as one country but if it gets worse after May 17th then they might have the make a decision on that. 

[stuartbert two hats]

Just now, Ozanne said:

I guess the difference now is we have given doses of vaccines to a lot of people which will be a big help in preventing the rising cases there leading to more serious problems. 
 

So far the PM has said we’ll move as one country but if it gets worse after May 17th then they might have the make a decision on that. 

Yeah, that's the big, big ray of hope. And now that those in their 40s are mainly done, even really high (400+) cases numbers still shouldn't lead to significant loss of life. 

But it's not to be sniffed at. Yes, most people at most risk are mostly protected, but where does that actually land us in terms of mortality reduction as a whole? I don't know, but I do suspect those brand new models aren't going to look anywhere near as good once this variant is taken into account. If we're talking 95% reduction in deaths and we end up with more cases than at the peak (it's possible - remember exponential growth), then could we have over a hundred deaths a day?  Nothing compared to before, but still not insubstantial.

Let's see how things go in the next couple of weeks - I don't imagine we'll see a drop off in Bolton for quite some time now, given the biggest unlocking yet is coming.

Come on government, surge vaccinate!

[squirrelarmy]

The numbers around me haven’t really changed in a while. Nowhere near as high as they were but they’re definitely not decreasing. 
 

Now the local elections are out of the way theres no risk of losing votes if they delay reopening fully so hopefully they stick with the science when making the decisions rather than political point scoring. 

[BobWillis2]

It’s spreading in the areas of Bolton with the lowest vaccine uptake, as low as 46% of adults, so there’s definitely some risk of hospitalisation and deaths occurring as a result of the outbreak. 

More needs to be done to convince BAME communities that it’s safe to have the vaccine. 

[stuartbert two hats]

5 minutes ago, BobWillis2 said:

It’s spreading in the areas of Bolton with the lowest vaccine uptake, as low as 46% of adults, so there’s definitely some risk of hospitalisation and deaths occurring as a result of the outbreak. 

More needs to be done to convince BAME communities that it’s safe to have the vaccine. 

I don't know whether to find that reassuring or worrying. Both really - it's worrying that it looks bad for Bolton, but makes it less of a bellwether for the rest of the country.

Time will, as ever, tell.

[steviewevie]

I wonder how vaccine uptake has been in muslim communities during Ramadam.

[Ozanne]

Covid: Will UK vaccine success keep virus at bay? https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-57073312

[JoeyT]

76% of people who have voted on this survey (5,149 votes so far) have broken the rules in the past few weeks.

Certainly goes to show what many of us have been saying in terms of the volume of people not following the rules.

 

[st dan]

Surely we are approaching the stage of the vaccine rollout where low take up areas can, and should be targeted now?

Forget the Indian variant surge in Bolton for a second, if the overall take up of the vaccine there is only 46%, then vaccines should be offered ASAP to all those over 18 in the area, to boost that number up.

Knowing what we know about how the vaccines go a long way in regards to stopping transmission too, this strategy would go a long way to stopping low take up areas suddenly becoming hotspots like we are seeing now. And this new variant should definitely add some weight to this approach too. 

[zahidf]

Fake SAGE calls for next Monday reopening to be delayed 'just in case '

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/may/12/indian-covid-variant-calls-in-question-17-may-reopening-in-uk-say-experts

[Fuzzy Afro]

12 minutes ago, zahidf said:

Fake SAGE calls for next Monday reopening to be delayed 'just in case '

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/may/12/indian-covid-variant-calls-in-question-17-may-reopening-in-uk-say-experts

I actually hate her so much.

[Havors]

11 hours ago, philipsteak said:

No one's ever asked my cat whether it prefers Whiskas, and yet somehow they know that 8 out of 10 cats do. How do they do it? Conspiracy? Must be

Your being a condescending prick has not answered my question... Where is his data from? Simple really. You dont have to be an arsehole you know, its not required. 

[Havors]

11 hours ago, stuartbert two hats said:

They may have spoken to your employer.

They?  Doesn't answer my question... where is their data from?  At least you were not a patronising arsehole like the other guy 🙂  Waffling on about conspiracies. 

[philipsteak]

2 minutes ago, Havors said:

Your being a condescending prick has not answered my question... Where is his data from? Simple really. You dont have to be an arsehole you know, its not required. 

I've got no idea where the data is from, and questioning it is fine, but doing it on the basis that you haven't been asked is a bit daft.