When will this shit end?

[Guest]

Just now, gooner1990 said:

Possibly, I can only comment on what I see though. 🙂

Indeed but that’s my point. Naturally the people that are following the rules are inside so you won’t notice those people just the ones that are out and about so you’ll focus on those ones that are possibly breaking the rules. 

[gooner1990]

Just now, Ozanne said:

Indeed but that’s my point. Naturally the people that are following the rules are inside so you won’t notice those people just the ones that are out and about so you’ll focus on those ones that are possibly breaking the rules. 

I think we are both making valid points. 🙂 

[BobWillis]

2 minutes ago, gooner1990 said:

Possibly, I can only comment on what I see though. 🙂

Always blows my mind when I see stats like 90% compliance with this lockdown. Do I live in an area with most of the 10%? What is going on? 

[lemons]

1 hour ago, northernringo said:

Looks like the above 'easing' is actually happening from March 8th over here.

We will have a 'pathway' to recovery on March 1st, probably very similar to the rest of the UK.

I'd like to know where the fuck we are going!? I know we have to overcompensate in comparison to Britain with the state of our healthcare system but why can't we have any indication of what is actually needed to have a life back.  I knew it was coming but it still hits every time. Stayed out of people's homes, minimal shopping, didn't hug grieving relatives , walks with people as little as possible, kept my mouth shut at others bending rules and I'm fed up . Spare me the faux outrage for St Paddy's too, news headlines already written . Not convinced anyone going mad then aren't already interacting same way now.

 

[steviewevie]

7 minutes ago, gooner1990 said:

Well putting it another way, there are a lot more people breaking them than last year!

yeah, probably...and I can tell you something if I was a teenager or in my 20s or even early 30s I'd be breaking them a lot more than I am now...must be a nightmare for younger people.

[gooner1990]

Just now, BobWillis said:

Always blows my mind when I see stats like 90% compliance with this lockdown. Do I live in an area with most of the 10%? What is going on? 

Today I went to get my car MOT done, went past the local McDonalds at around 1pm...queue so big it was going back onto a main road. 

Does this count as only leaving the house for 'good reason?'  No, but it is allowed and within the rules which seems stupid to me.  

Scoffing a Big Mac and chips isn't essential! (But then some would argue my car MOT isn't either!)

[gooner1990]

Just now, steviewevie said:

yeah, probably...and I can tell you something if I was a teenager or in my 20s or even early 30s I'd be breaking them a lot more than I am now...must be a nightmare for younger people.

I said to my girlfriend that if I had been in my early 20s I would be going off my head about not being able to go to pub/clubs/festivals for nearly a year...now i'm 39 it doesn't bother me so much!

[Guest]

1 minute ago, eFestivals said:

As we can all see from the posts above, lots of people are breaking the spirit of the rules while justifying to themselves that their actions were ok.

And they might have been ok. The problem is that some of the laxness does spread the virus.

Indeed it does.

Given cases have been falling fairly steadily up until the last couple of days to me that would indicate that the majority of people are still following the rules as if people were meeting in households as has been indicated then we would potentially see the effects of that. 

[Crazyfool01]

3 minutes ago, BobWillis said:

Always blows my mind when I see stats like 90% compliance with this lockdown. Do I live in an area with most of the 10%? What is going on? 

more workplaces that arent essential open .... and higher numbers in schools too ... and people will end up doing things around that 

[steviewevie]

Just now, gooner1990 said:

I said to my girlfriend that if I had been in my early 20s I would be going off my head about not being able to go to pub/clubs/festivals for nearly a year...now i'm 39 it doesn't bother me so much!

yeah, and when you hit 50 you actually prefer it.

[Guest]

Just now, crazyfool1 said:

more workplaces that arent essential open .... and higher numbers in schools too ... and people will end up doing things around that 

Yeah exactly, that’s the nature of this form of lockdown we are in. A lot more will be out because they are doing activities that are allowed. 

[steviewevie]

5 minutes ago, BobWillis said:

Always blows my mind when I see stats like 90% compliance with this lockdown. Do I live in an area with most of the 10%? What is going on? 

yeah, drove to tip earlier and the roads were busy, like normal busy, or even a bit busier than normal busy.

[steviewevie]

For fans of what is going on in France...

 

[chestwig]

10 minutes ago, eFestivals said:

As we can all see from the posts above, lots of people are breaking the spirit of the rules while justifying to themselves that their actions were ok.

And they might have been ok. The problem is that some of the laxness does spread the virus.

Could you please explain how a virus you show no symptoms of can possible be spread by seeing someone? 

 

There's multiple studies that show aystomatic transmission is not the driving force behind this particular virus.

 

 

[chestwig]

6 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

yeah, and when you hit 50 you actually prefer it.

Quite sad that you don't care about it just because it doesn't affect you.

[steviewevie]

2 minutes ago, chestwig said:

Quite sad that you don't care about it just because it doesn't affect you.

yes, true...but you know....fuck em all.

[Crazyfool01]

2 minutes ago, chestwig said:

Could you please explain how a virus you show no symptoms of can possible be spread by seeing someone? 

 

There's multiple studies that show aystomatic transmission is not the driving force behind this particular virus.

 

 

well how do you explain asymptomatic kids passing it on to adults then ? which was what happened twice with my brother and then sister in Law ....

[Leyrulion]

56 minutes ago, Ozanne said:

I said this last night on the cases plateauing.

A cursory look at the gov dashboard data does indicate a plateauing of cases by specimen date. But this necessarily isn't unexpected, is it? Is this the effect of the form of lockdown we have, given more people are out and about, more kids are in school etc maybe this is getting to the natural level with these types of restrictions.

I'm not saying we should tighten the lockdown or want to get into the argument of is this lockdown lenient again, it's just a thought on why we might be see a plateau.

Unless I'm completely misunderstanding for case rates to stop decreasing something would have to have changed In the last 5 days to lead to a plateau.

With the current lockdown drops should stay fairly consistent because that was the level right? 

I'm just worried that this is what happened in mid-late November in Kent and a month later we had the new strain announced.

1 hour ago, zahidf said:

Could be anything from reporting delay lags, to increase in Lateral flow tests, to more infections in some areas.

The death numbers and hospitalisations are still going down massively though. 

That is good, but previously we know case rates road to hospital rates. Hopefully that's not true with vaccines now but I was hoping for a bigger decrease before we got to test that out!

 

47 minutes ago, gooner1990 said:

There's no point in extending the 'lockdown' because most people aren't bothering to comply with it fully anymore anyway. I think if most people are truly honest with themselves, a lot of people are bending the rules to suit them.

The lockdown is about a lot more then people popping out to McDonalds or getting an MOT. 

When it's lifted a lot of businesses may start putting more staff into the office, services begin to open up more. E.g. people that have been putting off getting someone in to do the kitchen might allow them now. 

I'd also speculate that even more people will bend the rules because "it's not a lockdown now, it's probably fine"

 

[gooner1990]

14 minutes ago, crazyfool1 said:

more workplaces that arent essential open .... and higher numbers in schools too ... and people will end up doing things around that 

Most pubs (about 15 or so) in my small town are doing click and collect takeaways which weren't offered during lockdown 1 so even on a saturday when its quiet compared to normal there are probably 50 or so people going to each pub to collect a takeaway that were just cooking for themsleves at home in lockdown 1.

[Toilet Duck]

10 minutes ago, chestwig said:

There's multiple studies that show aystomatic transmission is not the driving force behind this particular virus.

Can you post the links to these studies please?

NEJM, JAMA, Lancet, BMJ level evidence like the one Here that shows exactly the opposite. 

[parsonjack]

1 hour ago, Ozanne said:

I said this last night on the cases plateauing.

A cursory look at the gov dashboard data does indicate a plateauing of cases by specimen date. But this necessarily isn't unexpected, is it? Is this the effect of the form of lockdown we have, given more people are out and about, more kids are in school etc maybe this is getting to the natural level with these types of restrictions.

I'm not saying we should tighten the lockdown or want to get into the argument of is this lockdown lenient again, it's just a thought on why we might be see a plateau.

I am a little surprised that we appear to be plateauing already to be honest.  My first reaction would be that the case drop is slowing because tests are rising, but numbers of tests over the past 5 days have actually been somewhat lower than the peaks of the week before.  Given this the only true indication is the % Positivity rate which takes both into account, and after a consistent fall from New Year this seems to have plateaued last week, with slight rises day on day since Monday this week.  Looking at the rates across UK there are certainly a number of areas where cases have risen recently, and the jury seems to be out on the reasons.  Certainly it concerns me a little that the current measures don't look like being sufficient to get us down to last summer numbers, especially given that we're currently about where we were end of September.

Vaccine rollout is def looking like the only key to the door.

[Paul ™]

21 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

For fans of what is going on in France...

 

Here in Dieppe one of the test centres was quiet today, busy yesterday though! 

4 hours ago, Paul ™ said:

Just had my first Covid test, not really a pleasurable experience I want to repeat that often 😕

And both Negative, really fast service and free too... Gotta love the French 😉 

[StuMalinas]

  Might be controversial but I think we should stay locked down as we are till the Easter holidays are over, then open schools which will allow for millions more vaccines for those shielding and those more at risk. Then start unlocking from there which hopefully will drop daily cases below 1000 and then COVID risk is very low 

[JoeyT]

 

[steviewevie]

STD or whatever he's called is still downvoting me.