When will this shit end?

[zahidf]

Neymar slammed in Brazil after PSG star 'hosts 500 PEOPLE at a five-day festive party complete with an underground disco' as South American country's coronavirus death toll surpasses 190,000.

The footballer had a disco built with acoustic protection in an annexe of a mansion in Mangaratiba on Rio's famous Green Coast to stop neighbours hearing the noise, according to Brazilian newspaper O Globo.

The mega bash is said to have started on December 25 and is due to continue until the New Year.

[Losing my hair]

5 minutes ago, Deaf Nobby Burton said:

Surely as you’ve got to be seated and eat in Tier 2, pubs can only be ‘full’ (which they more than likely would’ve been regardless of neighbouring tiers) as opposed to ‘rammed’?

Well if we want to be pedantic then I should have said that all the available tables were taken. However the precise wording doesn't take away from the point that from what I have observed, enough people in Tier 4 were travelling into the neighbouring Tier 2 area to increase the risk of infection levels rising. 

[Brownie30]

 

 

 

[lemons]

2 hours ago, Redwinevino said:

Zero chance, Northern Ireland are in what is basically Tier 5 - same as Tier 4 with  no outdoor exercise with people outside your own household allowed, for 6 weeks from Boxing Day - with a review after 4.

One week of tighter restrictions to begin with. No household mixing outside is only until end of NYD. Presumably to combat Xmas mixing and control NY parties. You can then mix outside and private gardens in limited numbers.

[DeanoL]

1 hour ago, Matt42 said:

Right. Back to business.

Is there any chance that Christmas transmission may be lower than expected? I’m going to give anecdotal evidence here but from the people in my family / I know virtually everyone has stayed behind very closed doors this Christmas. Even those which travelled / escaped London it’s not like they’ve been about.

Apart from solo country walks I’ve not interacted with anyone else but my household. I can’t imagine hundreds have descended on tier 2 pubs either - or I haven’t seen much evidence of it.

Yes there may be some household mixing issues but even people I know that I would categorise as frequent rule breakers seem to have been quite well behaved this Christmas. 

Have always thought that with schools closed, people off work, businesses closed, people staying in and by and large forming natural bubbles anyway, that Christmas wouldn’t be quite the super-spreader event some have.

The big unknown and spoiler to that is the new strain- all the additional movement will have spread it far out of the south east. We just don’t know how  much worse it is yet.

[squirrelarmy]

1 hour ago, RobertProsineckisLighter said:

I think I'm going to be building Lego till next Christmas. 

What did you get? I’ve got the Star Wars Cantina to build

[RobertProsineckisLighter]

36 minutes ago, squirrelarmy said:

What did you get? I’ve got the Star Wars Cantina to build

I got a Lego chess set which I've built really enjoyed it. I'm planning on treating myself to the Lego colosseum at somepoint but it's not cheap!

I wasn't sure if I was in the Lego shop on Christmas morning as pretty much every present the 10 year old unwrapped was Lego. The biggest of which is the Hogwarts castle so I've been trying to work out where that can fit when it's complete. 

I was tempted to treat myself to the Cantina at somepoint it looks great and it's an excuse to play the music! I'm just struggling for space in my home office to keep it all now. 

Edited December 27, 2020 by RobertProsineckisLighter

[zahidf]

 

[Mellotr0n]

53 minutes ago, DeanoL said:

Have always thought that with schools closed, people off work, businesses closed, people staying in and by and large forming natural bubbles anyway, that Christmas wouldn’t be quite the super-spreader event some have.

The big unknown and spoiler to that is the new strain- all the additional movement will have spread it far out of the south east. We just don’t know how  much worse it is yet.

I agree. Mixing increasing in some areas but massively decreasing elsewhere.

As with so many moments in this pandemic, it’ll be near impossible to say for sure either way because there are so, so many elements that affect case numbers. 

[Mellotr0n]

To answer someone else’s question re: Oxford pages and pages back, it appears they have rerun trials on the half/full dose and gotten that to 95% efficacy. 

I’m guessing the article in the Mail is suggesting that end-Feb is when restrictions will START to get rolled back, but that it’ll be a gradual process probably taking around 2-3 months, being studied closely along the way. 

Edited December 27, 2020 by Mellotr0n

[Guest]

6 minutes ago, Mellotr0n said:

To answer someone else’s question re: Oxford pages and pages back, it appears they have rerun trials on the half/full dose and gotten that to 95% efficacy. 

I’m guessing the article in the Mail is suggesting that end-Feb is when restrictions will START to get rolled back, but that it’ll be a gradual process probably taking around 2-3 months, being studied closely along the way. 

The government themselves have said that these restrictions are pretty much in place through the winter till Easter time. At that stage I would think we’ll see gradual easing through into the summer. 

[Mellotr0n]

9 minutes ago, Ozanne said:

The government themselves have said that these restrictions are pretty much in place through the winter till Easter time. At that stage I would think we’ll see gradual easing through into the summer. 

I think the Tier system will stay for a while yet.

But what we’ve seen over and over again is that the situation can change quite rapidly, in either direction.  

Unlikely perhaps, but if deaths and hospitalisations start plummeting from Feb, the pressure to ease some restrictions will be overwhelming. 

What we’ve also seen - over and over again - is the majority of people saying with certainty how things will be in a few months time often end up with egg on their face. 

Edited December 27, 2020 by Mellotr0n

[stuartbert two hats]

26 minutes ago, zahidf said:

 

I'd switch sides if people stopped dying so much.

[stuartbert two hats]

19 minutes ago, Mellotr0n said:

To answer someone else’s question re: Oxford pages and pages back, it appears they have rerun trials on the half/full dose and gotten that to 95% efficacy. 

I’m guessing the article in the Mail is suggesting that end-Feb is when restrictions will START to get rolled back, but that it’ll be a gradual process probably taking around 2-3 months, being studied closely along the way. 

That was my guess, but I didn't have any hard evidence for it. Where did you get your info? One of the paywalled articles?

[jannybruck]

I think at some point after January/February the government have to throw the public a bone in terms of publicly easing something. It's the relentless endlessness of this that means a lot people's mental health is in the toilet, and why a lot of people are giving up on complying with stuff because it's simply been too tough and too long at this point.

Having some end in sight, and saying – look, we're easing this one thing but we're keeping the rest for now until we've made sure a bunch more people are vaccinated so please remember hands/face/space – is going to be really useful for everyone, I think. Keeping the public in the dark and confused about an exit strategy is only going to fuck people's heads up this winter.

Edited December 27, 2020 by jannybruck

[Ryan1984]

6 minutes ago, Mellotr0n said:

I think the Tier system will stay for a while yet.

But what we’ve seen over and over again is that the situation can change quite rapidly, in either direction.  

Unlikely perhaps, but if deaths and hospitalisations start plummeting from Feb, the pressure to ease some restrictions will be overwhelming. 

What we’ve also seen - over and over again - is the majority of people saying with certainty how things will be in a few months time often end up with egg on their face. 

Remember the evil backbenchers have that 2nd February date etched in their memories for a ‘sunset’ on these restrictions.

[yehbutnobut]

who's to say they don't back trax

[Guest]

3 minutes ago, jannybruck said:

I think at some point after January/February the government have to throw the public a bone in terms of publicly easing something. It's the relentless endlessness of this that means a lot people's mental health is in the toilet, and why a lot of people are giving up on complying with stuff because it's simply been too tough and too long at this point.

Having some end in sight, and saying – look, we're easing this one thing but we're keeping the rest for now until we've made sure a bunch more people are vaccinated so please remember hands/face/space – is going to be really useful for everyone, I think. Keeping the public in the dark and confused about an exit strategy is only going to fuck people's heads up this winter.

They have that from one of the last press conferences when Boris said Easter. An extra month given it's still winter will probably be needed, we might get a relaxation of the the tiers that an area is in but up until Easter we'll more or less still be in the tiering system.

This is also another thing it's not about throwing the public a bone, if the virus is still out of control and tighter measures are needed then they should be in place. It shouldn't be about rewarding the public it should be about loosening measures when it's safe to do so. The restrictions aren't a punishment.

[incident]

Just now, stuartbert two hats said:

That was my guess, but I didn't have any hard evidence for it. Where did you get your info? One of the paywalled articles?

I don't understand the medical specifics at all of what the trials are actually doing, but the Phase 3 Oxford/AZ data we've seen so far (that was criticised for being a bit patchwork) was all from the original trials run by Oxford themselves - NCT04400838 and ISRCTN89951424.

Since then, AstraZeneca have started a separate large scale Phase 3 trial - NCT04516746, and presumably if there's a significant change in efficacy then that's where any new data is coming from. Though again I don't know what makes that trial different in medical or dosage terms.

[Mellotr0n]

13 minutes ago, jannybruck said:

I think at some point after January/February the government have to throw the public a bone in terms of publicly easing something. It's the relentless endlessness of this that means a lot people's mental health is in the toilet, and why a lot of people are giving up on complying with stuff because it's simply been too tough and too long at this point.

Having some end in sight, and saying – look, we're easing this one thing but we're keeping the rest for now until we've made sure a bunch more people are vaccinated so please remember hands/face/space – is going to be really useful for everyone, I think. Keeping the public in the dark and confused about an exit strategy is only going to fuck people's heads up this winter.

You would hope - once Oxford is approved - the Government will start to plot a clearer course for a timeline towards normality, to keep everyone sticking with the restrictions in the meantime.

Not based on dates, but on metrics - once hosps, deaths, case rates get to a certain level with a clear drop, once vaccinations hit a certain level and are showing a certain % of efficacy.   

You’d hope. 

Edited December 27, 2020 by Mellotr0n

[squirrelarmy]

6 minutes ago, yehbutnobut said:

who's to say they don't back trax

This government making a U-Turn?

Can’t see it happening. 

[steviewevie]

Probably in Feb or March when numbers come down the tory press plus many tory mps and ministers will be calling for things to be opened again, whereas many scientists and medics will be urging caution. I reckon by easter most restrictions will have been lifted...but just have to see.

[Tranquility of Solitude]

My sons car has been fixed. In case anyone cares....... it was merely a loose oil sump plug. But I took the opportunity to change the oil, oil and air filter, and spark plugs. All free of charge. It’s what Dads do. He stayed indoors but has put the dinner on. Not that any of that has anything to do with this thread, but I did promise an update.
 

[zahidf]

10 minutes ago, Ozanne said:

They have that from one of the last press conferences when Boris said Easter. An extra month given it's still winter will probably be needed, we might get a relaxation of the the tiers that an area is in but up until Easter we'll more or less still be in the tiering system.

This is also another thing it's not about throwing the public a bone, if the virus is still out of control and tighter measures are needed then they should be in place. It shouldn't be about rewarding the public it should be about loosening measures when it's safe to do so. The restrictions aren't a punishment.

They are punishing for people to endure.  And if they are unenforceable, people won't go along with them

[Guest]

6 minutes ago, Mellotr0n said:

You would hope - once Oxford is approved - the Government will start to plot a clearer course for a timeline towards normality, to keep everyone sticking with the restrictions in the meantime.

Not based on dates, but on metrics - once hosps, deaths, case rates get to a certain level with a clear drop, once vaccinations hit a certain level and are showing a certain % of efficacy.   

You’d hope. 

They won’t be do that, if they did then people would clamour for the restrictions to be relaxed when those metrics are achieved. They haven’t set those targets in public yet and probably won’t start now. They’ve given a deadline but because it’s not short enough people are ignoring it and looking for another one.

 

2 minutes ago, zahidf said:

They are punishing for people to endure.  And if they are unenforceable, people won't go along with them

I am aware, we’ve all had to endure them. But they aren’t actually a punishment and people have been sticking to them in the main.