When will this shit end?

[xxialac]

1 minute ago, incident said:

If that's the main thing propping up the Tories in the polls, then it's hugely positive news.

Sunak is inevitably going to become public enemy number one just as soon as the dust settles and the full scale of the impact on the economy and national finances is revealed.

I don't think he will as he's a canny operator and will have either replaced Johnson or resigned 'on a point of principle' before the shit meets the fan.

[SheffJeff]

11 minutes ago, crazyfool1 said:

how on earth could they not find a photo of him ..... or was it an issue finding one where he had combed his hair !!

This one would be quite apt.

[Guest]

9 minutes ago, incident said:

If that's the main thing propping up the Tories in the polls, then it's hugely positive news.

Sunak is inevitably going to become public enemy number one just as soon as the dust settles and the full scale of the impact on the economy and national finances is revealed.

Plus Sunak has been a big part of the delaying of any restrictions being implemented. When that starts to get seen more he won’t look as good. 

[philipsteak]

23 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

Cases up in Cumbria...

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2020/dec/22/covid-infections-eden-cumbria-new-strain

Yay! At least my hostel is closed now so we aren't playing our part in helping the spread

[Ryan1984]

2 hours ago, steviewevie said:

I can see that happening, but we'll see. They might just have year 11s and 13s going into school/college because Williamson is desperate to have GCSEs still go ahead.

I think Williamson will be replaced in the new year, and maybe they'll get someone in who actually cares.

The Rashford documentary last night did not reflect well on him (or the whole lot of them, to be honest).

[Mr.Tease]

39 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

 

Impressive how high John McDonnell managed to score despite everything flung at him. Can't blame Dodds particularly for the low score- Labour (as is the problem with centrism since 2008) have no economic ideology or policy whatsoever, so it's not like she can sell anything to the public except empty platitudes.

[Chef]

13 hours ago, Toilet Duck said:

So...it’s the first proper report I’ve read on this variant. Gives a lot more detail as to why they are concerned. Basically, this variant has a lot of changes in it, but 3 in particular are at the root of why it is being monitored. They are in the gene that codes for the spike and have been independently shown to likely have an impact on transmissibility, but what the impact of all 3 together is remains unknown. They are isolating the variant and studying it in the lab to see exactly what they do.

One of the changes in the spike gene results the loss of a bit of it. This causes one of the parts of the PCR test to stop working (the other two parts still do, so you can still pick up positive cases...some labs use this 3 gene test, some use a two gene version that doesn’t include the spike gene, so would miss this). This has made it easier to use PCR results as a proxy for the new variant instead of having to sequence all the samples (which takes much longer). They have checked by sequencing them as well and about 99% of samples where the spike PCR failed it was because the patient was infected with this variant. That has allowed them to reconstruct the growth of this variant and compare it to other variants over the same time period. While the model has to ignore other factors that might be driving transmission (human behaviour mostly), it is certainly outpacing other variants over the last few weeks and they now attach high confidence to this assessment.

What does this mean? Well, it looks like this variant is more transmissible, but it’s not certain (no assumptions are made in the model, so there could be underlying reasons why it is spreading rapidly). They also need to get a better breakdown of the age of infected individuals (which might inform some of the reasons for the rapid spread). Some of the changes are in regions that our immune system makes antibodies to, but not the only regions, so the vaccines should still work just fine (monoclonal antibody therapies might need to be adapted if they were used as there is some data suggesting one of the changes could stop specific antibodies from working, but cocktails should still work ok). There is also no evidence it causes more severe disease. Indeed, it also has another interesting deletion in it (not in the spike, but in a gene called ORF8). Previously this has been associated with less severe disease, but that’s not completely confirmed yet either. Could this be a weaker but more infectious virus? Don’t know yet!

Anyway, still not definitive yet, but there are multiple lines of evidence now suggesting that this could spread more easily, hence, the prudent thing to do is to try to contain it. We’ve seen other early datasets like this and it hasn’t turned out to be a more transmissible form (the underlying assumptions that can’t be modelled were at the root of it), but wise to be cautious here.

Thank you - very clear and informative as usual. 

[fraybentos1]

1 hour ago, Ozanne said:

That was taken before Saturdays changes.

But after the million other disasters they have had in the last 10 years. 

You can't only accept/ post polls when they show a Labour lead lol.

[Guest]

3 minutes ago, fraybentos1 said:

But after the million other disasters they have had in the last 10 years. 

You can't only accept/ post polls when they show a Labour lead lol.

My statement was correct though, it was taken before the changes to the tier system. I’m flattered you take such an interest in what I have to say. 

[fraybentos1]

1 minute ago, Ozanne said:

My statement was correct though, it was taken before the changes to the tier system. I’m flattered you take such an interest in what I have to say. 

You only post polls in when they show a Labour lead. It is disingenuous, and doesn't show the whole picture. It's only really worth looking at long term trends with polls too as opposed to isolated results (within the margin of error) that you like the look of.

 

[Supernintendo Chalmers]

3 hours ago, steviewevie said:

...maybe they'll get someone in who actually cares.

Good luck doing that amongst that shower of c*nts

[Guest]

1 minute ago, fraybentos1 said:

You only post polls in when they show a Labour lead. It is disingenuous, and doesn't show the whole picture. It's only really worth looking at long term trends with polls too as opposed to isolated results (within the margin of error) that you like the look of.

 

If you feel more polls can be posted to add to the discussion please feel free to post them yourself. If you feel someone is missing a good discussion point then post it. 

[Guest]

1 hour ago, JoeyT said:

Had to give me daughter a test yesterday which was one of the more troubling experiences of my life given she's only 11months old. Thankfully the tears subsided after a while and once she was bribed with a farleighs rusk. 

Most likely just a cold but doctor insisted (cheers mate needed to self isolate on my final 2 days of work before Christmas... not)

It'll be a shitshow if it comes back positive.

My friend was having big issues trying to do a test on their little girl. They had to give up in the end as it was a nightmare. I’ve no idea how a parent would be able to do this!

[Spindles]

Damn, this thread is like a full time job.  No chance of keeping up.

I'm just sat here idly thinking that all those lorry drivers needing to eat, sleep, bathe and shit it must be like the loos at the bottom of South Park on that Saturday in 2011 when they couldn't get the trucks up there to clean it out.  I saw a pyramid of shit that was a full 2 feet above the seat line of a portaloo adorned with a can of stella on top, garlanded with wet wipes throughout.  It was like the world's most gross christmas tree.  If only I was the kind of person to carry a camera, it would have been the perfect image of this christmas for me.

[steviewevie]

33 minutes ago, Mr.Tease said:

Impressive how high John McDonnell managed to score despite everything flung at him. Can't blame Dodds particularly for the low score- Labour (as is the problem with centrism since 2008) have no economic ideology or policy whatsoever, so it's not like she can sell anything to the public except empty platitudes.

to be fair it's been hard for Dodds to get noticed, most people probably don't know who she is. She has actually been spot on when criticising some of Sunak's policies, but no one knew about it...Sunak just u-turns and that's it. Have to see how she gets on with whatever downturn we get in the next few months and years, and also when labour finally have some policies (although everyone seems to think he's centrist now).

But, at same time, I liked McDonnell, he was obviously the brains behind most of labour's policies under Corbyn (so could take a big part of the blame for 2019)...and I actually would have preferred him to Corbyn as leader.

 

[steviewevie]

33 minutes ago, fraybentos1 said:

But after the million other disasters they have had in the last 10 years. 

You can't only accept/ post polls when they show a Labour lead lol.

so what?

[steviewevie]

 

[Zoo Music Girl]

2 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

 

WHY IS HE SHOUTING 

[Guest]

LOUD NOISES. 

[Fuzzy Afro]

I don’t understand why he’d embellish it to use as political cover to cancel Christmas. If the new strain isn’t actually more transmissible then why would he want to cancel Christmas?

[steviewevie]

4 minutes ago, Zoo Music Girl said:

WHY IS HE SHOUTING 

BECAUSE IT'S IMPORTANT!

[RobertProsineckisLighter]

I wonder if any of the EU nations are going to use their sovereignty to ignore the EU advice and keep their boarders closed to Brits. 

[steviewevie]

 

[mattiloy]

12 minutes ago, Fuzzy Afro said:

I don’t understand why he’d embellish it to use as political cover to cancel Christmas. If the new strain isn’t actually more transmissible then why would he want to cancel Christmas?

The growth rate in the virus is greater than expected, part of this increased growth rate may or may not be attributable to the new strain. It is still somewhat uncertain. If it is attributable to the new strain or not, it doesnt really make a difference, rates are out of control in London and SE. Thats why Christmas is cancelled.

[Sasperella]

24 minutes ago, Ozanne said:

My statement was correct though, it was taken before the changes to the tier system. I’m flattered you take such an interest in what I have to say. 

Aye, and let's face it, that whole "Christmas is cancelled" thing has got everyone's backs up. 

Its amazed me during covid that, despite continuing to vote Tory after all the heinous shit they've done, it was Cummings driving to Durham that really pissed off some voters (including my Dad and step Mum). This Christmas thing is another good example. Sure, it's shite, but they have objectively done far far worse things over the years!