When will this shit end?

[stuartbert two hats]

16 minutes ago, JoeyT said:

I've pretty much resigned myself to life never returning to what it was after a long think about it all.

Convince me otherwise.

It will. The vaccines work, they just take time to roll out.

[MrBarry465]

Just now, stuartbert two hats said:

It will. The vaccines work, they just take time to roll out.

 

Vaccines aside, it will not be a snap of the fingers anyway.

I personally think it takes around 12 months from here for us to be back in full swing.

I've maintained since start of year summer 2022 is when things are really swinging. 

[Stretlow]

2 minutes ago, Zoo Music Girl said:

Can everyone in the UK do this now? My partner is booked in for 11 weeks and when he tried to change the date the other day it only gave him options in that timeframe. He is under 40.

yeah i think so, i can log into the NHS website but at the moment I only have the options for about 12 weeks and not too close to my house.

I spoke to my GP surgery though last week and they said call here the week before your 8 weeks is due and we'll sort you out in one of our clinics.....

[MrBarry465]

Just now, Barry Fish said:

Someone wants a chufty badge 

Damn straight.....

No I've just tried to maintain a level of pragmatism and realism in this thread since the turn of the year 🙂 

[stuartbert two hats]

Quick straw poll - for those of us under 40 who have booked both jabs at once - what's the gap?

FWIW, I'm 42, had my AZ 6 weeks ago and my second dose was booked for 12 weeks later.

[Crazyfool01]

Just now, Barry Fish said:

The flu vaccine isn't anywhere near as effective as the covid one.  Your not going to see big numbers outside the people who will normally die but we are living in a time of scaremongering and over reaction.  But the vaccine efficacy numbers are pretty clear at this point to show this will settle down to just be the usual 10,000 to 20,000 flu deaths a year.

thats why I talked about improving the flu jab ... ?!! .... nothing scaremongering in my post ive accepted it as a reality .... covid kills people now that flu hasnt been ... there is not a complete overlap ... most will have had the vaccine some will sadly be casualties still on top of flu 

[Zoo Music Girl]

5 minutes ago, Stretlow said:

yeah i think so, i can log into the NHS website but at the moment I only have the options for about 12 weeks and not too close to my house.

I spoke to my GP surgery though last week and they said call here the week before your 8 weeks is due and we'll sort you out in one of our clinics.....

Ah okay. Good to know. Although he is was directed by his GP surgery to the mass vaccination centre so not sure they're running any clinics. Guess we'll find out.

[Fuzzy Afro]

2 hours ago, Ozanne said:

He’s addressed the question about the straight line curving down sadly it’s not good news.

 

Welp. This isn’t good at all.

 

Basically implies that the indoor hospitality and indoor household mixing will need to be closed to avoid overwhelming the NHS. We can’t jab quickly enough to vaccinate our way out without reimposing more NPIs over the summer.

 

I’m quietly hopeful that he’s overly pessimistic on the impact of vaccinations (we are doing over 200k second doses per day, and the first dose still provides *some* protection)

But even still, it can only be a matter of time before the talk of reimposing stage 2 restrictions makes it into the mainstream SAGE/government discussion if current trends do bleed through into exponential growth of hospital beds occupied. 

[Zoo Music Girl]

6 minutes ago, stuartbert two hats said:

Quick straw poll - for those of us under 40 who have booked both jabs at once - what's the gap?

FWIW, I'm 42, had my AZ 6 weeks ago and my second dose was booked for 12 weeks later.

I booked my second when I got my first back in March (had it early as volunteering). Had my second 11 and a half weeks later.

[stuartbert two hats]

2 minutes ago, Zoo Music Girl said:

I booked my second when I got my first back in March (had it early as volunteering). Had my second 11 and a half weeks later.

Which vaccine was it?

[zahidf]

14 minutes ago, Fuzzy Afro said:

Welp. This isn’t good at all.

 

Basically implies that the indoor hospitality and indoor household mixing will need to be closed to avoid overwhelming the NHS. We can’t jab quickly enough to vaccinate our way out without reimposing more NPIs over the summer.

 

I’m quietly hopeful that he’s overly pessimistic on the impact of vaccinations (we are doing over 200k second doses per day, and the first dose still provides *some* protection)

But even still, it can only be a matter of time before the talk of reimposing stage 2 restrictions makes it into the mainstream SAGE/government discussion if current trends do bleed through into exponential growth of hospital beds occupied. 

I do feel he is being overly pessimistic, the vaccine effect should bend the curve sooner ( look at Bolton). Its one thing politically as well to draw out going into the final stage, to reimpose restrictions which the govt promised they wouldnt do. I certianly dont think anyone with two doses will bother with any govt restrictions on their movement/who they meet

Edited June 10, 2021 by zahidf

[JoeyT]

23 minutes ago, stuartbert two hats said:

Quick straw poll - for those of us under 40 who have booked both jabs at once - what's the gap?

FWIW, I'm 42, had my AZ 6 weeks ago and my second dose was booked for 12 weeks later.

I'm 32 and my jabs are 11 weeks & 4 days apart.

Had first 29th May with my second booked for 17th August.

Haven't heard anything about being able to cancel and rebook for an earlier date for the under 40's yet but I wonder if supply will allow for that?

Edit: I had Moderna and now can't stop listening to country music... go figure 👀

Edited June 10, 2021 by JoeyT

[zahidf]

Also worth noting is that we havent had any chatter from NHS front line staff about the NHS being close to being overwhelmed. Which we had at this stage last Dec

 

[tigger123]

45 minutes ago, JoeyT said:

I've pretty much resigned myself to life never returning to what it was after a long think about it all.

Convince me otherwise.

I think my thing about why it feels never ending is they’re constantly saying ‘we need a few more weeks to see where the data is’. There’s always just a few more weeks of data to collect. I completely get why this is the case, particularly with the delta variant, but it does seem never ending. 
part of me kinda thinks maybe it would be better to say things will definitely be fully back to normal in summer 2022, as tbh while that would obviously be shit, at least I could prepare for that, it’s the uncertainty and constant will it won’t it be ok thing that really gets me down

[Crazyfool01]

6 minutes ago, zahidf said:

Also worth noting is that we havent had any chatter from NHS front line staff about the NHS being close to being overwhelmed. Which we had at this stage last Dec

 

Last Dec ?! Why would we ? I’m confused why you are comparing with Dec last year ? 

[northernringo]

35 minutes ago, stuartbert two hats said:

Quick straw poll - for those of us under 40 who have booked both jabs at once - what's the gap?

FWIW, I'm 42, had my AZ 6 weeks ago and my second dose was booked for 12 weeks later.

I was given a second appointment 10 weeks after my first (Pfizer).

Interestingly, in NI, under 30s can decide if they want a Pfizer or AZ jab. The benefit for going AZ is that you will get an earlier booking slot.

[zahidf]

5 minutes ago, crazyfool1 said:

Last Dec ?! Why would we ? I’m confused why you are comparing with Dec last year ? 

Basically last March/Last Dec before the last 2 waves at this stage, there was a a lot of online stuff from NHS staff sayinghow bad things were. andectotal reports of NHS being overwhelemed. Not had that this time around. NHS bosses instead syaing the link is broken between cases and hospitlisations

[jimmillen]

1 hour ago, Avalon_Fields said:

I’d like to see a sense of perspective, let’s have daily figures on all preventable deaths. So this would include many cancers, deaths due to alcohol, drugs, smoking, obesity, poor lifestyles, road and travel, suicide, the flu, accidents, heart disease, and then what are we really doing about any of these? They vastly outnumber Covid deaths. Why aren’t we obsessed with these too? As the flu alone causes up to 20,000 deaths every winter, and due to lockdown last winter the flu was greatly reduced, what’s the argument for not locking down every winter? Why don’t those lives mean as much?

Humans are very bad at intuitively assessing systematic risk, that’s why people worry more about terrorism (for example) than road traffic accidents. High impact low probability events - things that are novel and unusual - tend to carry a disproportionate weight in people’s opinions  

The media then reinforce this by focusing more on those very unusual events - the clue’s in the word “news” after all…

I agree that we should be doing more about all those things you mention and a sense of proportion about it would be welcome. 

However there is one big difference with COVID… The number of patients with cancer, heart disease, obesity etc is almost certainly not going to grow exponentially. Any changes will be slow, linear and to some extent predictable based on leading indicators that public health folk study.

COVID - or any other rapidly transmissible disease - OTOH can go from nothing to thousands of cases in weeks.

So basically, it’s less about the absolute death numbers per se, and much more about preserving the integrity of the healthcare system. Not least so people with all those other conditions can get the treatment they need.

 

[Crazyfool01]

6 minutes ago, zahidf said:

Basically last March/Last Dec before the last 2 waves at this stage, there was a a lot of online stuff from NHS staff sayinghow bad things were. andectotal reports of NHS being overwhelemed. Not had that this time around. NHS bosses instead syaing the link is broken between cases and hospitlisations

We aren’t comparing like for like though …. I don’t think that’s been possible throughout … better testing treatment and of course vaccines and different times of year and stages of lockdowns , even the weather has been different and will have an impact 

[MrBarry465]

10 minutes ago, Barry Fish said:

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/music/news/vaccine-segregation-helping-live-music-return-us-not-britain/

The difference between  the USA and the UK is more stark by the day.  No masks inside theme parks and concerts all set to go.

Meanwhile we shit a brick over nothing.

I dont see the point comparing us to the US to be honest.

They have 0 public healthcare system, I'll take our approach everyday of the week. 

[Zoo Music Girl]

39 minutes ago, stuartbert two hats said:

Which vaccine was it?

Sorry AZ!

[Zoo Music Girl]

27 minutes ago, JoeyT said:

I'm 32 and my jabs are 11 weeks & 4 days apart.

Had first 29th May with my second booked for 17th August.

Haven't heard anything about being able to cancel and rebook for an earlier date for the under 40's yet but I wonder if supply will allow for that?

Edit: I had Moderna and now can't stop listening to country music... go figure 👀

This is what I was thinking. If there are concerns about supply of Pfizer and Moderna in terms of first doses, surely they don't want everyone in the under 40s group bringing their second forward?

[fraybentos1]

To those worrying about things never going back to normal... go look at Israel. Down to 10 cases on average for last 7 days.

Ok Things might not look amazing atm in terms of cases but positives to take. The biggest one being way less people can die. Either way, as of 2021 almost every adult in the U.K. will Be double vaxxed, some kids too and maybe boosters for the oldies. The vaccines are great , it’ll be fine. Domestically at least.

[stuartbert two hats]

5 minutes ago, fraybentos1 said:

To those worrying about things never going back to normal... go look at Israel. Down to 10 cases on average for last 7 days.

Ok Things might not look amazing atm in terms of cases but positives to take. The biggest one being way less people can die. Either way, as of 2021 almost every adult in the U.K. will Be double vaxxed, some kids too and maybe boosters for the oldies. The vaccines are great , it’ll be fine. Domestically at least.

Yeah, they managed to get prevalence way down and vaccination levels way up before being hit by Delta. We'll get there too.

 

[Crazyfool01]

Hancock providing the Cummings hasn’t provided any evidence defence today …. Which is reasonable I guess … it’s now a question of if Cummings has got some and held it back so far to enable Hancock to drop himself further into shit