When will this shit end?

[steviewevie]

I love variant porn.

[efcfanwirral]

Just now, Barry Fish said:

+ 3 weeks 🙂 

Well yes but with the current speed of the vaccinations  and pubs around me not opening til may I don't think there'll be a whole lot of risk coming my way til around then anyway! 

[squirrelarmy]

1 minute ago, steviewevie said:

I love variant porn.

Resisting googling this. 

[steviewevie]

Had an email from school informing me that kid has had a negative test result, so she can continue her education with other humans.

[steviewevie]

I love the EU too.

https://www.theneweuropean.co.uk/brexit-news/europe-news/what-the-eu-got-right-over-vaccines-7800272

[jannybruck]

Vaccine passports are completely impractical in anything that doesn't already have an additional layer of security or ticket checking in place already. It's completely delusional to think Sue from the local beauty salon or Mike from the local coffee shop have the time, willpower or staffing levels to be arsed checking everyone's green tick.

[efcfanwirral]

3 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

Had an email from school informing me that kid has had a negative test result, so she can continue her education with other humans.

So some tests are in school and some at home? 

2 minutes ago, jannybruck said:

Vaccine passports are completely impractical in anything that doesn't already have an additional layer of security or ticket checking in place already. It's completely delusional to think Sue from the local beauty salon or Mike from the local coffee shop have the time, willpower or staffing levels to be arsed checking everyone's green tick.

Depends what sort of enforcement is in place - if they're getting spot check inspected and there are big fines they'd have to. Or more likely insurance to have people on the premises being invalid if they don't check. 

Edited March 8, 2021 by efcfanwirral

[steviewevie]

1 minute ago, efcfanwirral said:

So some tests are in school and some at home? 

My kid's high school is testing them all before they start lessons this week, and then I think they will be receiving tests to do at home after that, maybe twice a week. They are staggering them starting this week, different year groups starting on different days, it's a big school...my kid's year is back in today.

[stuartbert two hats]

42 minutes ago, efcfanwirral said:

Well yes but with the current speed of the vaccinations  and pubs around me not opening til may I don't think there'll be a whole lot of risk coming my way til around then anyway! 

That's the point.

[tarw]

Just had my second phizer jab. Where do I get one of those passports?

[DeanoL]

 

22 hours ago, crazyfool1 said:

why the downvote on this @StuMalinas ? I think thats probably quite an accurate statement .... if my holidays got messed around with im not sure id like it ... one of the perks of being a teacher ... although I know full well for many its not 6 weeks off ... with prep and marking being done in holidays 

While I'm sure the unions would oppose it and it'd cause huge headaches, I actually don't think it's unreasonable. Ask pretty much anyone in the private sector right now if they would trade in any flexibility over holidays for 100% job security and 99% of them would take it.

[DeanoL]

 

22 hours ago, BobWillis2 said:

The roadmap is out of date and is based on data and theories that have been superseded by far better data than anyone expected. 
Once the over 50’s have their first jab protection the roadmap should be accelerated, I’m yet to see a reasonable counter argument other than a few what ifs. 

There's a pretty strong economic argument in terms of when we reopen things - the more numbers go down, the more and more certain those "not before X" dates in the roadmap get. The more certain they are, the more businesses can plan. I think for most owners in most industries having a date that is 99% certain is preferable to a date 4 weeks earlier that is 70% certain.

At 99% certain I can blow £30,000 on a massive re-opening advertising and media campaign. At 70% certain I won't.

If we speed things up, that certainty drops. 

At this point when we are truly at the finish line, when any future lockdown is extremely unlikely and would need basically an entire new pandemic to start, the certainty of being able to re-open fully, for good, vastly outweighs one or two months extra trading time. Especially as we're not talking months that are seasonal high points for many businesses.

The assumption that it's of an economic benefit to relax rules as soon as possible is flawed.

[DeanoL]

 

2 hours ago, Fuzzy Afro said:

After the scenes in Glasgow city centre yesterday the mock outrage from doomers has started already, in particular the "wait two weeks" garbage from the logically challenged who, a whole ass year into the pandemic, still somehow haven't grasped the idea that it doesn't spread outside.

It spreads less outside. It still spreads outside. Anecdotally I've heard at least one case of someone catching it from going on a walk with a friend.

1 hour ago, efcfanwirral said:

I'm getting so irritated by the fear around all this that once it's over I'll actively want to be around unvaccinated people as much as possible after I've had mine, just to prove a point. Once I've had one dose I will have zero fear about covid. Zero.

Will you not bother with the second dose then?

[efcfanwirral]

1 minute ago, DeanoL said:

 

It spreads less outside. It still spreads outside. Anecdotally I've heard at least one case of someone catching it from going on a walk with a friend.

Will you not bother with the second dose then?

I'll take the second for the same reason I'm taking the first- to protect other people. But I'm not locking myself down for 3 months waiting for it, terrified of meeting a dirty unvacinated person 

Edited March 8, 2021 by efcfanwirral

[stuartbert two hats]

2 minutes ago, DeanoL said:

 

There's a pretty strong economic argument in terms of when we reopen things - the more numbers go down, the more and more certain those "not before X" dates in the roadmap get. The more certain they are, the more businesses can plan. I think for most owners in most industries having a date that is 99% certain is preferable to a date 4 weeks earlier that is 70% certain.

At 99% certain I can blow £30,000 on a massive re-opening advertising and media campaign. At 70% certain I won't.

If we speed things up, that certainty drops. 

At this point when we are truly at the finish line, when any future lockdown is extremely unlikely and would need basically an entire new pandemic to start, the certainty of being able to re-open fully, for good, vastly outweighs one or two months extra trading time. Especially as we're not talking months that are seasonal high points for many businesses.

The assumption that it's of an economic benefit to relax rules as soon as possible is flawed.

Good point.

FWIW, I think it's probably worth bringing forward some of the easing of restrictions on outdoor activities, but all the actually important stuff like gyms/cinemas/pubs/retail are still about right - if the R does go above 1, we will have to wait 5 weeks to see if hospitalisations rise as a result.  It just takes that long. 

[efcfanwirral]

5 minutes ago, DeanoL said:

 

There's a pretty strong economic argument in terms of when we reopen things - the more numbers go down, the more and more certain those "not before X" dates in the roadmap get. The more certain they are, the more businesses can plan. I think for most owners in most industries having a date that is 99% certain is preferable to a date 4 weeks earlier that is 70% certain.

At 99% certain I can blow £30,000 on a massive re-opening advertising and media campaign. At 70% certain I won't.

If we speed things up, that certainty drops. 

At this point when we are truly at the finish line, when any future lockdown is extremely unlikely and would need basically an entire new pandemic to start, the certainty of being able to re-open fully, for good, vastly outweighs one or two months extra trading time. Especially as we're not talking months that are seasonal high points for many businesses.

The assumption that it's of an economic benefit to relax rules as soon as possible is flawed.

Lower capacities sound like a huge problem too, for hospitality mainly. Can't imagine it's too profitable having socially distanced tables only, or outdoors only when it's cold 

[Fuzzy Afro]

22 minutes ago, DeanoL said:

 

It spreads less outside. It still spreads outside. Anecdotally I've heard at least one case of someone catching it from going on a walk with a friend.

Will you not bother with the second dose then?

Got any proof of that other than that single anecdote? 

[DeanoL]

3 minutes ago, Fuzzy Afro said:

Got any proof of that other than that single anecdote? 

Sure "g. It is therefore important that messaging recognises that close interactions outdoors can still pose a risk."

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/945978/S0921_Factors_contributing_to_risk_of_SARS_18122020.pdf

[Zoo Music Girl]

It will be interesting to see what actually does open and what we can feasibly do from April 12th. Saw one story at the weekend saying loads of pubs were already booked up for the outdoor thing, but from here it seems quite a few places might just wait until May as not really viable to pay staff, get pumps going etc for a few outdoor tables. There aren't many pubs near us with decent beer gardens beyond a few tables for example. If it was me I think I'd be tempted to stay closed a bit longer.

[gooner1990]

4 minutes ago, Zoo Music Girl said:

It will be interesting to see what actually does open and what we can feasibly do from April 12th. Saw one story at the weekend saying loads of pubs were already booked up for the outdoor thing, but from here it seems quite a few places might just wait until May as not really viable to pay staff, get pumps going etc for a few outdoor tables. There aren't many pubs near us with decent beer gardens beyond a few tables for example. If it was me I think I'd be tempted to stay closed a bit longer.

There's a riverside pub in my town and that's fully booked from April 12th - May 1st! 😮

[sjseabass]

35 minutes ago, DeanoL said:

 

There's a pretty strong economic argument in terms of when we reopen things - the more numbers go down, the more and more certain those "not before X" dates in the roadmap get. The more certain they are, the more businesses can plan. I think for most owners in most industries having a date that is 99% certain is preferable to a date 4 weeks earlier that is 70% certain.

At 99% certain I can blow £30,000 on a massive re-opening advertising and media campaign. At 70% certain I won't.

If we speed things up, that certainty drops. 

At this point when we are truly at the finish line, when any future lockdown is extremely unlikely and would need basically an entire new pandemic to start, the certainty of being able to re-open fully, for good, vastly outweighs one or two months extra trading time. Especially as we're not talking months that are seasonal high points for many businesses.

The assumption that it's of an economic benefit to relax rules as soon as possible is flawed.

They could keep the commercial opening dates the same and bring forward the social stuff though, then everybody would be happy.

[Fuzzy Afro]

13 minutes ago, DeanoL said:

Sure "g. It is therefore important that messaging recognises that close interactions outdoors can still pose a risk."

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/945978/S0921_Factors_contributing_to_risk_of_SARS_18122020.pdf

Fair enough. I mean the Bournemouth beach gatherings, BLM protests, outdoor gatherings in the states etc haven’t led to superspreader events, so I’d be very surprised if the Rangers fans celebrating is a spreading event. 

[Crazyfool01]

20 minutes ago, Fuzzy Afro said:

Got any proof of that other than that single anecdote? 

I will double that single anecdote 

[squirrelarmy]

16 minutes ago, Zoo Music Girl said:

It will be interesting to see what actually does open and what we can feasibly do from April 12th. Saw one story at the weekend saying loads of pubs were already booked up for the outdoor thing, but from here it seems quite a few places might just wait until May as not really viable to pay staff, get pumps going etc for a few outdoor tables. There aren't many pubs near us with decent beer gardens beyond a few tables for example. If it was me I think I'd be tempted to stay closed a bit longer.

Exactly. In the brief period where the pubs were open last year a lot of the real ale places struggled to get a regular supply of guest ales. There was just too many unknown factors preventing the brewing of them. 
 

As long as you don’t mind bog standard keg beer you’ll be fine but for those of us who like a cask ale, I think it will be a while before those supply lines are back to normal. 

[Zoo Music Girl]

12 minutes ago, squirrelarmy said:

Exactly. In the brief period where the pubs were open last year a lot of the real ale places struggled to get a regular supply of guest ales. There was just too many unknown factors preventing the brewing of them. 
 

As long as you don’t mind bog standard keg beer you’ll be fine but for those of us who like a cask ale, I think it will be a while before those supply lines are back to normal. 

Realistically I think I'm probably only going to be meeting in parks until mid May, partly as it will be bloody impossible to get a table anywhere.