When will this shit end?

[DeanoL]

If schools open up and there's no change in the rate of reduction of hospital admissions and cases even I'd say we can safely open up.

I think that's extremely unlikely though, given that most people in a school won't have been vaccinated, so any benefit of the vaccine breaking transmission chains won't be felt at all.

Indeed, I think lifting any other restriction right now would cause a smaller spike that reopening schools.

[zahidf]

3 minutes ago, DeanoL said:

Yeah that's what I mean - if 2 to 1 are against them, 66% of people are willing to go to gigs without them and 33% are not. The maths doesn't work on that for promoters. But without knowing what % have it as a dealbreaker we don't know the real impact (ie - how many of the 66% would not go to gigs if they had to have a passport, versus how many of the 33% wouldn't go to gigs if it wasn't a requirement)

COnsideirng how fast festivals are selling out, i would say that there is an undrlying demand for live music at the moment though

[Hutchmaster]

31 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

The Greeks?

Oh, sorry...geeks.

 

 

Edited March 1, 2021 by Johnkhutch

[gizmoman]

3 minutes ago, DeanoL said:

Yeah that's what I mean - if 2 to 1 are against them, 66% of people are willing to go to gigs without them and 33% are not. The maths doesn't work on that for promoters. But without knowing what % have it as a dealbreaker we don't know the real impact (ie - how many of the 66% would not go to gigs if they had to have a passport, versus how many of the 33% wouldn't go to gigs if it wasn't a requirement)

I see what you mean now, but just because 33% think they're a good idea that doesn't necessarily mean they wouldn't want to go to a gig without the passport scheme, some might be too frightened I suppose, but until gigs start up again we're not going to know for sure how demand has been affected, I suspect not much, there are plenty of us desperate to get out to one.

[Mr.Tease]

33 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

yes, the nerd eggheads just want us to keep us locked down forever with their fake variant doomgloom porn.

 

It's the line pushed by exactly the same people who have claimed nothing was really necessary the entire pandemic (they were against face masks, the first lockdown, the second lockdown and the third lockdown, didn't see why we should wait and see if vaccines were successful, didn't see why people should still work from home, didn't see why they should have to do anything differently, thought Christmas in a pandemic was a grand idea, believed Whitty et al were being 'Dr Doom' back in September, thought this was all over and done with last summer, etc etc etc.

I get all the arguments about acceptable risk, and cost vs benefit of lockdown etc, now that vaccines are rolled out and have we essentially done all we can, etc- they're certainly worth weighing up, but so to are the arguments around being cautious about variants and the strategy on dealing with those going forward. The concerted effort to try and dismiss scientists as 'nerds' and 'just don't listen to any words of caution- everything is going to be fine!' is just the kind of stuff you see on the Simpsons

[xxialac]

Yes, it seems crazy to make the brunt of the criticism the same people who have been proven right time and time again.  And the notion they want to keep us locked down for a very long time has no basis in reality. They are urging caution not permanent lockdowns. 

Plus other "nerds" have given us vaccines, without which we'd be royally screwed.

[Fuzzy Afro]

1 hour ago, DeanoL said:

Yeah I'm sort of gearing up for the next couple of months being the hardest as people stop caring - and it's impossible to reasonably keep distance from people who have no interest in keeping distance from you.

2 to 1 for vaccine passports is an interesting ratio though, if it is true. Most gigs and events can't run on 66% of the usual demand. So one side needs convincing one way or the other for most events to be viable. 

Most people who say that are against vaccine passports would still go ahead and obtain a passport if it was needed to take part in society, and most of the 66% aren’t going to avoid attending events if vaccine passports are NOT used. 

[Ozanne]

Hopefully it looks like the government have learnt from those previous mistakes.

[JoeyT]

9 minutes ago, xxialac said:

Yes, it seems crazy to make the brunt of the criticism the same people who have been proven right time and time again.  And the notion they want to keep us locked down for a very long time has no basis in reality. They are urging caution not permanent lockdowns. 

Plus other "nerds" have given us vaccines, without which we'd be royally screwed.

You do realise that even within the science community there are differing opinions about lockdowns etc. don't you?

 

[DeanoL]

Just now, JoeyT said:

You do realise that even within the science community there are differing opinions about lockdowns etc. don't you?

 

There are different opinions yes, but like in climate change that means 99% of the science community think one thing and 1% think the other.

There's general consensus that lockdowns stop the spread of the disease. The question of whether we should have them is always political rather than scientific.

[Fuzzy Afro]

46 minutes ago, DeanoL said:

If schools open up and there's no change in the rate of reduction of hospital admissions and cases even I'd say we can safely open up.

I think that's extremely unlikely though, given that most people in a school won't have been vaccinated, so any benefit of the vaccine breaking transmission chains won't be felt at all.

Indeed, I think lifting any other restriction right now would cause a smaller spike that reopening schools.

The cases will go up, ESPECIALLY given the lateral flow testing that’s being rolled out. That in itself is okay, and a price worth paying to get the schools open. The issue is that previously, the sprogs would take the virus home to elderly/vulnerable relatives, and some of the staff in the school would also be elderly/vulnerable. 
 

Whereas now, those teachers/relatives will have been vaccinated so the hope is that the extra cases don’t translate into hospitalisations. Their might be a minor effect due a few unlucky teachers etc, but nothing of the scale to put the NHS under pressure. 

[JoeyT]

 

[Fuzzy Afro]

Government should bring back the rule of 6 outdoors from next week. Fuck waiting until the 29th. 

[JoeyT]

13 minutes ago, DeanoL said:

There are different opinions yes, but like in climate change that means 99% of the science community think one thing and 1% think the other.

There's general consensus that lockdowns stop the spread of the disease. The question of whether we should have them is always political rather than scientific.

I understand that lockdowns stop the spread of disease but in my opinion (and I'm pretty sure a growing number of peoples) restrictions within a lockdown need to be proportionate.

I'm not saying get rid of them all and let's see what happens but outdoor based restrictions should 100% be scaled back sooner than currently timetabled too. I'm fairly certain there's more than 1% of scientists who would agree with that?

 

Edited March 1, 2021 by JoeyT

[BobWillis2]

7 minutes ago, Fuzzy Afro said:

Government should bring back the rule of 6 outdoors from next week. Fuck waiting until the 29th. 

I think government wanted that from the start, hence why they had to make it 1a and 1b. I imagine there was a big pushback from sage who want to see the effect of schools reopening on their own. Meeting 1 other person is just legalising what already happens so largely irrelevant in terms of R. 

[Ryan1984]

Is Boris doing a press conference this evening? The mother-in-law is claiming so but I think she’s been fed duff, scare-mongering information.

[Crazyfool01]

1 hour ago, zahidf said:

COnsideirng how fast festivals are selling out, i would say that there is an undrlying demand for live music at the moment though

They sold most of those tickets last year ... the extra demand comes from the festivals that might cancel or have already including 200,000 glastonbury goers looking for alternatives ... I think this is a false demand and next year will return to normal levels ... with the confidence of international travel too ... as for the face nappies and muzzles ... this following on from the geeks ... presumably you are joking about those words too ? Or deliberately being inflammatory ... 

[Ozanne]

Just now, Ryan1984 said:

Is Boris doing a press conference this evening? The mother-in-law is claiming so but I think she’s been fed duff, scare-mongering information.

Matt Hancock is doing the press conference at 1700 today. 

[xxialac]

39 minutes ago, JoeyT said:

You do realise that even within the science community there are differing opinions about lockdowns etc. don't you?

 

Of course.

But the term 'nerds' I was responding to was being used as a generalisation to the majority view of the scientific community.

And the majority view of the scientific community was previously to have had no mingling at Christmas, a firebreaker, earlier shutdowns etc.

No one is perfect but seems dismissive to label the views of these people as doom-mongering nerds.

[gherring8]

https://t.co/A7WT1DZe3p

[Ryan1984]

4 minutes ago, xxialac said:

Of course.

But the term 'nerds' I was responding to was being used as a generalisation to the majority view of the scientific community.

And the majority view of the scientific community was previously to have had no mingling at Christmas, a firebreaker, earlier shutdowns etc.

No one is perfect but seems dismissive to label the views of these people as doom-mongering nerds.

But you could say we’re all festival nerds, sitting on our computers talking crap all day. I think it was used tongue in cheek.

[xxialac]

Just now, Ryan1984 said:

But you could say we’re all festival nerds, sitting on our computers talking crap all day. I think it was used tongue in cheek.

It mostly gets used often in conjunction with criticism so it's a pejorative term, not an affectionate one.

[Ryan1984]

12 minutes ago, Ozanne said:

Matt Hancock is doing the press conference at 1700 today. 

Ok, thanks. She’s freaking out as she heard that Boris was going to cancel the lockdown plans (looks like that line came from the Express).

[Zoo Music Girl]

18 minutes ago, Ryan1984 said:

Is Boris doing a press conference this evening? The mother-in-law is claiming so but I think she’s been fed duff, scare-mongering information.

 

16 minutes ago, Ozanne said:

Matt Hancock is doing the press conference at 1700 today. 

Press conferences are pretty standard on Mondays now so doesn't mean shit is kicking off or anything (directed at Ryan's mother in law, not either of you!).

43 minutes ago, Fuzzy Afro said:

Government should bring back the rule of 6 outdoors from next week. Fuck waiting until the 29th. 

If everyone is breaking it already as is often claimed here (and I'd agree that many are) then why does it matter whether the government formalise it or not?

[Fuzzy Afro]

4 minutes ago, Zoo Music Girl said:

 

Press conferences are pretty standard on Mondays now so doesn't mean shit is kicking off or anything (directed at Ryan's mother in law, not either of you!).

If everyone is breaking it already as is often claimed here (and I'd agree that many are) then why does it matter whether the government formalise it or not?

Because plenty of people are sticklers for the rules are conflate morality with legality, and they're effectively being punished here. I'm no stickler for the rules myself but I did have a picnic with a friend on Saturday and then go and meet another friend afterwards for a walk, I'd have preferred to just meet them both together in a group of three.