When will this shit end?

[Leyrulion]

28 minutes ago, zahidf said:

I dont think there is any evidence that the current mutations will make the vaccines completely useless. It may effect effacay and make things a bit harder, but starting from scratch seems unlikely.

There's no evidence the other way either though. The science indicates it probably won't stop the vaccine bring effective but we don't actually know that.

[stuartbert two hats]

16 minutes ago, Toilet Duck said:

Just as a counterpoint to the rapid growth due to the new variant narrative, Ireland has gone from the lowest case numbers in Europe to the fastest growing in the space of two weeks. Sequencing surveillance as well as spike gene drop out PCR data suggests the new variant only accounts for about 10% of cases here. So explosive growth with the old variant still possible when social interaction increases (we were stable til hospitality reopened and Christmas socialising kicked in). Still can’t say for sure that the new variant is entirely behind the explosion in cases, as mentioned above, probably prudent to assume it is more transmissible until we know better, but if cases are out of control, it’s almost immaterial what variant is behind it. 

I'm aware that this is an area where far greater and more experienced minds than mine seem to strongly think the new variant is responsible for increased growth.

But I'm struggling to reconcile that conclusion with graphs that show equal growth between old and new variants in some regions alongside runaway growth in the new variant in other regions. It looks a lot like there's another driver here?

I'm hoping that the driver was December and as Christmas shopping and socialising has stopped, we'll see a flattening of growth in January*.

But you're absolutely right - it doesn't matter on a day to day basis, I'm going (continue) to act as if there is a highly contagious killer virus out there trying to kill my daughter's grandparents. Because there (still) is!

* Edit: and after January, the weather will also improve. We're already getting more UV.

Edited January 3, 2021 by stuartbert two hats

[stuartbert two hats]

Anyway, when do we think UK deaths will peak? In a couple of weeks? February?

[Toilet Duck]

11 minutes ago, stuartbert two hats said:

I'm aware that this is an area where far greater and more experienced minds than mine seem to strongly think the new variant is responsible for increased growth.

But I'm struggling to reconcile that conclusion with graphs that show equal growth between old and new variants in some regions alongside runaway growth in the new variant in other regions. It looks a lot like there's another driver here?

I'm hoping that the driver was December and as Christmas shopping and socialising has stopped, we'll see a flattening of growth in January. 

But you're absolutely right - it doesn't matter on a day to day basis, I'm going (continue) to act as if there is a highly contagious killer virus out there trying to kill my daughter's grandparents. Because there (still) is!

Yeah, there’s a lot of circumstantial evidence suggesting the new variant is more transmissible but absolute proof is still lacking. It’s entirely possible that it is both more transmissible and there was more social interaction. One way or another, we need to get a hold of things to let the vaccine roll out pull us through the other side.

Edited January 3, 2021 by Toilet Duck

[Crazyfool01]

3 minutes ago, stuartbert two hats said:

Anyway, when do we think UK deaths will peak? In a couple of weeks? February?

would it not be a month or so after peak infections which we haven't yet hit ? 

[zahidf]

4 minutes ago, stuartbert two hats said:

Anyway, when do we think UK deaths will peak? In a couple of weeks? February?

I reckon... Jan 18th

[zahidf]

9 minutes ago, Leyrulion said:

There's no evidence the other way either though. The science indicates it probably won't stop the vaccine bring effective but we don't actually know that.

Oh for sure. I'm just saying until we know, they shouldn't really be scaring people with their headlines.

[jannybruck]

3 minutes ago, stuartbert two hats said:

Anyway, when do we think UK deaths will peak? In a couple of weeks? February?

Anecdotally, a couple of friends working in hospitals said they'd been informally briefed to expect it to peak in 2-3 weeks, so might nudge into February.

[stuartbert two hats]

2 minutes ago, crazyfool1 said:

would it not be a month or so after peak infections which we haven't yet hit ? 

Don't think so. We've already vaccinated a million of the most vulnerable. The link between cases and deaths is being severed as we speak.

[steviewevie]

9 minutes ago, stuartbert two hats said:

Anyway, when do we think UK deaths will peak? In a couple of weeks? February?

end of the month.

[Crazyfool01]

1 minute ago, stuartbert two hats said:

Don't think so. We've already vaccinated a million of the most vulnerable. The link between cases and deaths is being severed as we speak.

yep of course ... was forgetting that aspect 

[tigger123]

58 minutes ago, MrBarry465 said:

 

If it's mutating this quickly though and requires further vaccinations - that sets everything back. We are almost constantly playing catch up.

Very true, but often when viruses mutate and become increasingly transmissible, they become less lethal, so in some instances, the virus could be becoming less deadly

[stuartbert two hats]

4 minutes ago, jannybruck said:

Anecdotally, a couple of friends working in hospitals said they'd been informally briefed to expect it to peak in 2-3 weeks, so might nudge into February.

 

3 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

end of the month.

Sounds like we've all got roughly the same timeframe in mind.

[Tranquility of Solitude]

My 81 year old mum has just called to ask me to go over and clear her drive of ice and snow so she can get out. Would it be cruel to shovel some more ice and snow to block her in for a month or so?

Joking aside, in my experience, neither my mum, or mum in law (85) are particularly good at adhering to the advice to protect themselves. There’s a lot said and written regarding the irresponsible behaviour of some young people, but my university age kids are doing everything in their power to protect elderly grannies who don’t seem to want protection.

[Crazyfool01]

Just now, Tranquility of Solitude said:

My 81 year old mum has just called to ask me to go over and clear her drive of ice and snow so she can get out. Would it be cruel to shovel some more ice and snow to block her in for a month or so?

Joking aside, in my experience, neither my mum, or mum in law (85) are particularly good at adhering to the advice to protect themselves. There’s a lot said and written regarding the irresponsible behaviour of some young people, but my university age kids are doing everything in their power to protect elderly grannies who don’t seem to want protection.

im was wondering if this actually might help us in some areas with decreased mobility ..... or will it just impact in other ways with the NHS having to deal with more accidents and slips and trips etc !!

[RobertProsineckisLighter]

5 minutes ago, Tranquility of Solitude said:

My 81 year old mum has just called to ask me to go over and clear her drive of ice and snow so she can get out. Would it be cruel to shovel some more ice and snow to block her in for a month or so?

Joking aside, in my experience, neither my mum, or mum in law (85) are particularly good at adhering to the advice to protect themselves. There’s a lot said and written regarding the irresponsible behaviour of some young people, but my university age kids are doing everything in their power to protect elderly grannies who don’t seem to want protection.

I think that is something that isn't often discussed enough - lots of the people in hospital are older because it impacts them more severely if they catch it. Fine, but where are they catching it? And why are they where they are catching it? 

If you can reduce the need for these more at risk people to be in the places they are catching it you will reduce the pressure on the NHS. 

I'm aware not everyone has a support network around them and I'm not saying lock up old people or anything like that I'm saying understand where they are catching it, and make those places safer or remove the need for them to be there. 

 

[parsonjack]

28 minutes ago, tigger123 said:

Very true, but often when viruses mutate and become increasingly transmissible, they become less lethal, so in some instances, the virus could be becoming less deadly

This.  It's a known tactic of a virus with diminishing host opportunities. 

[Supernintendo Chalmers]

Is there an official rolling record of how many people have received the vaccine in the UK? 

[Chapple12345]

3 minutes ago, Supernintendo Chalmers said:

Is there an official rolling record of how many people have received the vaccine in the UK? 

There are periodic announcements but its above 1 million at the moment 

[Tranquility of Solitude]

8 minutes ago, Supernintendo Chalmers said:

Is there an official rolling record of how many people have received the vaccine in the UK? 

This is useful.....

https://www.howmanyvaccinated.com/

 

 

[Tranquility of Solitude]

Use the drop down for UK, or Scotland, England etc.

[ace56blaa]

Labour have been very quiet this weekend. 

Is Keir torn because last time he said get schools back no matter what. 

Sorry, more and more I find myself agreeing that this opposition isn't strong enough. 

Teachers, parents and students are all wondering what to do on monday and neither party is offering strong decisive statements. It becomes clearer and clearer every day that labour has no really plan or agenda either, or if they do they are not putting it forward strongly enough. 

Every governmental mistake offers an opportunity to say "this is how you can do it better" Even if it's just saying delay schools a couple of weeks until there is proper guidance published and initiated in schools. What is going on, it's the height of the virus, the worst we've seen it and every has gone missing, 

Why is it acceptable for the prime minister to deliver his thoughts on closing schools on the fucking Andrew Marr show.

Fuck recess, they should still be working, especially when sending kids back to schools

[MEGABOWL]

1 hour ago, stuartbert two hats said:

Anyway, when do we think UK deaths will peak? In a couple of weeks? February?

Last week of the month

[Guest]

29 minutes ago, Supernintendo Chalmers said:

Is there an official rolling record of how many people have received the vaccine in the UK? 

The figures are also on the government dashboard under healthcare. 

[Andre91]

I’ve just received the register of students coming into school tomorrow. I am streaming three lessons tomorrow and the numbers for students that are going to physically be in the classrooms for those lessons are: 

Year 7 - 1 student 

Year 11 - 2 students 

Year 10 - 1 student 

I know I’ve said it to death but ALL STAFF. All staff being told to come in. 

I teach English so, as a core subject, I will have the maximum numbers in my class (as all students obviously have to do my subject). Some of my colleagues in my department have 0 students for some of their classes tomorrow. 
 

An utter shambles. A reckless shambles. 
 

*edit* Wednesday, I only stream last period. Friday, I only stream first period. Yet I (and my whole department) will be expected to go into school. Talk about needless numbers of people being in. 

Edited January 3, 2021 by Andre91