When will this shit end?

[zahidf]

7 minutes ago, DeanoL said:

Like many millions of people, I very rarely interact with the elderly and vulnerable. If protecting them is literally all we are trying to do here, why I have I been in some sort of lockdown for nine months. I didn’t see a single vulnerable person or person over 60 for 8 months, nor did most of my mates- why were we not allowed to meet up?

99% of the measures I have dutifully followed during 2020 were basically an entire waste of time if I go out and get COVID in June.

Fundamentally, if the government wanted me to go get COVID rather than wait for vaccine, surely they’d have asked me to do so in March?

Its not about you catching it. Its because its exponential and someone you infect with infect someone who infects someone vulnerable.

If you decide you don't want to risk catching it until the vaccine but you aren't vulnerable, due to age or NHS occupation, they won't shut down society and the economy for you (or me).

[Crazyfool01]

5 minutes ago, zahidf said:

Its not about you catching it. Its because its exponential and someone you infect with infect someone who infects someone vulnerable.

If you decide you don't want to risk catching it until the vaccine but you aren't vulnerable, due to age or NHS occupation, they won't shut down society and the economy for you (or me).

It’s also a big thing that I don’t go around with a sign over my head saying look I’m a vulnerable person ... it’s a bit more obvious with the elderly but with most vulnerable people wouldn’t have any idea 

Edited December 27, 2020 by crazyfool1

[zahidf]

2 minutes ago, crazyfool1 said:

It’s also a big thing that I don’t go around with a sign over my head saying look I’m a vulnerable person ... it’s a bit more obvious with the elderly but with most vulnerable people wouldn’t have any idea 

True but in theory the NHS should know and offer you the vaccine before me.

[stuartbert two hats]

44 minutes ago, zahidf said:

Oh come on. Its not the same. Using Ww2 metaphors for lockdowns is the same as when the brexit nutters use it for no deal.

Nah, it's a great metaphor this time. Not least because there was a massive problem with compliance, to the point where a supporting character in Dad's Army had the catchphrase "put that light out", because they had to invent a whole* job, Air Raid Precautions warden to get people to follow the rules. Not something that the Brexiters like to bring up, but it does make the comparison ring true. They had to curtail their freedoms to save lives, and whilst most did, many didn't. Sounds awfully like now.

 

* Ok, it wasn't a whole job, they had lots of other responsibilities. Saying that above would have completely undermined my argument 😉 But it must have made an impact on popular consciousness to become the stereotype of the warden in a sitcom a couple of decades later.

[Crazyfool01]

2 minutes ago, zahidf said:

True but in theory the NHS should know and offer you the vaccine before me.

Sorry was supposed to quote @deano where he said he didn’t interact with the elderly and vulnerable...  one of those sets of people it’s very doubtful you would know if you were interacting with them or not ... whilst going about your daily life ... and even just visiting the shops 

[MrBarry465]

28 minutes ago, DeanoL said:

Like many millions of people, I very rarely interact with the elderly and vulnerable. If protecting them is literally all we are trying to do here, why I have I been in some sort of lockdown for nine months. I didn’t see a single vulnerable person or person over 60 for 8 months, nor did most of my mates- why were we not allowed to meet up?

99% of the measures I have dutifully followed during 2020 were basically an entire waste of time if I go out and get COVID in June.

Fundamentally, if the government wanted me to go get COVID rather than wait for vaccine, surely they’d have asked me to do so in March?

How about indirectly interacting with them down at the shops, with someone who does. You need to think about it more broadly, it's not just about the immediate people around you.

I do agree though, I'll be doing what I can to avoid getting COVID now until I get a vaccine. That means minimal public transport, only really going to hang out with people I know and not taking uneeded risks.

[Guest]

8 minutes ago, stuartbert two hats said:

Nah, it's a great metaphor this time. Not least because there was a massive problem with compliance, to the point where a supporting character in Dad's Army had the catchphrase "put that light out", because they had to invent a whole* job, Air Raid Precautions warden to get people to follow the rules. Not something that the Brexiters like to bring up, but it does make the comparison ring true. They had to curtail their freedoms to save lives, and whilst most did, many didn't. Sounds awfully like now.

 

* Ok, it wasn't a whole job, they had lots of other responsibilities. Saying that above would have completely undermined my argument 😉 But it must have made an impact on popular consciousness to become the stereotype of the warden in a sitcom a couple of decades later.

You can draw comparisons between ARPs and COVID Marshalls in a way. A role that's been created as some weren't following the rules. 

Coincidentally this is also a story published today by The Guardian about the 'Blitz Spirit' and comparisons to COVID - https://www.theguardian.com/society/2020/dec/27/what-mental-health-impact-of-second-world-war-tells-us-about-post-covid-life

 

[RobertProsineckisLighter]

3 minutes ago, Ozanne said:

You can draw comparisons between ARPs and COVID Marshalls in a way. A role that's been created as some weren't following the rules. 

Coincidentally this is also a story published today by The Guardian about the 'Blitz Spirit' and comparisons to COVID - https://www.theguardian.com/society/2020/dec/27/what-mental-health-impact-of-second-world-war-tells-us-about-post-covid-life

 

Truth be told I'd rather take my chances with Covid 19 than a German bomb landing on my Anderson shelter. 

[stuartbert two hats]

1 hour ago, Ozanne said:

It's not a metaphor, I'm using the Blitz to compare people behaviours to now. It isn't all that silly considering it was probably the last major event like this in this country. In the pandemic we have COVID Marshalls, in the Blitz they had air raid precautions wardens going round to homes asking people to turn lights off. I think it's a fairly decent exercise to compare the 2 as they could both be seen as infringements on freedoms but for the greater good. It's widely acknowledged in this country that the War was this defining moment for the country, if that's the case I wonder if people back then considered it a punishment too? 

Thanks for the link, I'll have a read of that. It's good to know the comparison has been explored by academics.

It's at least an analogy, if not a metaphor.

[stuartbert two hats]

1 hour ago, steviewevie said:

Has it been proven how long immunity lasts with these vaccines?

I very much hope not, given how long it is since the first participants were given their second dose. I don't think it's worn off yet.

FWIW, the people infected during the SARS epidemic (it wasn't a pandemic was it?) still have T-Cells as of this year.

[stuartbert two hats]

46 minutes ago, Toilet Duck said:

I’d expect the next round of data from Oxford/AZ to be the US trial data (SD:SD)...(somewhere in the last few pages there was speculation that it might be more info on LD:SD, but they are only starting those trials, too early for that data)...however, there’s some subtle differences in the AZ US trial and the Oxford/AZ UK and Brazil trials (manufacturer of the doses possibly being a big one, remember, the LD:SD came about because of a manufacturing error that led to a dosing error)...anyway, the pause in the US trial meant they had a lot of participants with dose 1 and a big gap to dose 2...meaning they have way more data on when dose 2 needs to be given (and there was already a signal for flexibility in their lancet paper with some participants waiting 6 weeks but not seeing a drop in immunity or greater risk of infection)...I suspect with better quality vaccine (made by AZ themselves rather than Oxford or the Italian manufacturer that made the doses for the earlier trials) plus the big gap from the pause, they have robust data suggesting they can stretch it out to 12 weeks, at which point AZ plan to deliver 40m doses for the UK (so, dose 2 can be given then)...all pure speculation on my part, but seems plausible to me...

Ooooh, I had totally forgotten about that pause. Imagine if the data shows that the big gap between doses delivers the ~95% efficacy that was suggested by the Times interview? Could antibodies to the Chimp adenovirus fade in that length of time, allowing the second dose to do its job? I'm probably getting overexcited now, but here's my thinking: two full doses with a big gap in between results in the highest efficacy of all for the Oxford vaccine. You get the benefit of a relatively strong immune response on the first dose and you don't get the adenovirus destroyed by the immune system, because the adenovirus was only ever provoking an antibody response, not really stimulating T or B cells (with the COVID bit stimulating far more of the immune system)?

That would be one hell of a result if so, and would kind of fit the idea that they're in a position to show >90% efficacy from the US trial data and support a delayed roll out of the second dose.

Am I talking total bollocks? I suspect I'm getting a bit overexcited here!

[Zoo Music Girl]

1 hour ago, steviewevie said:

stop being so mature.

Sorry. You're all a load of stinky bums who smell of wee! 

[Zoo Music Girl]

1 hour ago, crazyfool1 said:

Yep will do 😒.. fucking shitting it ... as I went for a walk with folks yesterday 😞 

Really hope it's negative and sure it will be. Just think how much worse you'd feel if you'd spent the day inside with them so at least you know you've been as safe as possible.

[Toilet Duck]

28 minutes ago, stuartbert two hats said:

Ooooh, I had totally forgotten about that pause. Imagine if the data shows that the big gap between doses delivers the ~95% efficacy that was suggested by the Times interview? Could antibodies to the Chimp adenovirus fade in that length of time, allowing the second dose to do its job? I'm probably getting overexcited now, but here's my thinking: two full doses with a big gap in between results in the highest efficacy of all for the Oxford vaccine. You get the benefit of a relatively strong immune response on the first dose and you don't get the adenovirus destroyed by the immune system, because the adenovirus was only ever provoking an antibody response, not really stimulating T or B cells (with the COVID bit stimulating far more of the immune system)?

That would be one hell of a result if so, and would kind of fit the idea that they're in a position to show >90% efficacy from the US trial data and support a delayed roll out of the second dose.

Am I talking total bollocks? I suspect I'm getting a bit overexcited here!

Who knows! Untangling what is going on with these different combinations in terms of the immune response is going to take a bit of time. The reason for the lower efficacy in the SD:SD UK/Brazil trials is still an unanswered question, but also was based on interim data (which, while statistically significant, isn’t the end of the study). Given the infection rates in the US when they reopened the trial there (and ever since), they could have a load of events and much better confidence in the efficacy measures (and the pause actually helps them evaluate how long a gap they can leave in a controlled trial, so while unplanned, it’s still high quality data and they can directly compare to the planned schedule in the same trial).

If I recall correctly, the UK and Brazil trials also had a lot of frontline healthcare staff on them as circulating virus wasn’t as high back in the summer when they started accruing, so they hedged their bets a bit. That meant lots of younger participants exposed to high viral loads. There’s more of the general public on the US trial, with greater diversity as well, but they are being exposed to community levels of virus, not repeated high exposures in a healthcare setting, so that could be a factor and contribute to better observed efficacy (I don’t know, I’m just guessing). 

I also think AZ-made vaccine is going to be better quality in bulk than experimental doses from what is essentially a very fancy home brew at Oxford (an academic spin out, even from one of the best universities in the world, can’t compare to the manufacturing standards of big pharma...it’s why all the vaccines we currently have were developed by academic groups (or research intensive spin outs of those groups), but have major pharmaceutical partners to actually make them to scale). Whatever it is, I’m sure they were frustrated when the FDA took so long to let them start up again, but it looks like they did them a huge favour! Looking forward to seeing the data in due course, but the noises are good (and confirms what one of the leads on the Oxford vaccine told me last week, he said they were very happy with where they were). Still at 100% protection from hospitalisation as well, which in and of itself is huge. Plus they have about 200m doses ready to go right now and will hit around 1bn by the end of March (and of course, much easier to distribute etc). Game on!

 

[ace56blaa]

3 hours ago, crazyfool1 said:

I think that you dont get tested until you show symptoms ... and he is the only one that needs to isolate when the app pings him ... as his housemate you dont need to unless you show symptoms ... standing by to be corrected though 

Yeah but I have a few symptoms , mostly aches and fatigue, thought it's hard to tell for sure, because I haven't felt completely healthy for much of this year, but that could just be stress and lockdown, (I thought I could have already had covid and be experience long covid.) but I guess we'll see, 

[Toilet Duck]

2 hours ago, crazyfool1 said:

Yep will do 😒.. fucking shitting it ... as I went for a walk with folks yesterday 😞 

I know it’s easy for me to say, but try not to worry. Only a small proportion of household contacts end up catching it, so short exposures (or outdoor exposures) are unlikely to lead to much. I’ve had a few close contacts myself (some of my students tested positive back in March and I had been in a lecture with them for an hour at a time more than once that week...was also long before anyone started wearing masks!) but still nothing came of it. Fingers crossed for you!

[Suprefan]

Yay, we get a little money now. All this over a few extra days of golfing. 

 

[K2SO]

Reading a lot on Twitter about a tier 5.

Apparently an 8pm curfew, and you can't leave the house unless for work or food. Not even exercise.

Probably Twitter BS, but would be a double kick in the nads for me. Tomorrow (well, today) is the end of my isolation. I got made redundant on the 11th. Whilst serving my notice, someone was bought in from outside who ended up having COVID. That put me on a 10 isolation starting on the 17th. I had a test at work, which came back negative. The following day, my sister (who works for the police) was sent home with symptoms. Got a positive test that day. So now not only was I in isolation, but also my sister and parents (Well my dad already was as we worked together). The 28th is our first day of freedom.

If these tier 5 rules are true, they are awful for me. I have no job to go to, and I won't be allowed out for anything other than food shopping. These 10 days have been bad enough, especially as my girlfriend and I live in different T4 counties, so we can't even see each other from a distance in the park.

It's a serious drain on mental health. I can't help but feel like any more tightening of restrictions and people are going to well and truly kick off... I also can't shake the idea that they are going to do something that takes the news away from Brexit on 1 Jan, whether it be tightening or loosening restrictions or even a national lockdown. They've definitely fucked the country some way in that deal, and they won't want us to realise.

[Fuzzy Afro]

4 hours ago, K2SO said:

Reading a lot on Twitter about a tier 5.

Apparently an 8pm curfew, and you can't leave the house unless for work or food. Not even exercise.

Probably Twitter BS, but would be a double kick in the nads for me. Tomorrow (well, today) is the end of my isolation. I got made redundant on the 11th. Whilst serving my notice, someone was bought in from outside who ended up having COVID. That put me on a 10 isolation starting on the 17th. I had a test at work, which came back negative. The following day, my sister (who works for the police) was sent home with symptoms. Got a positive test that day. So now not only was I in isolation, but also my sister and parents (Well my dad already was as we worked together). The 28th is our first day of freedom.

If these tier 5 rules are true, they are awful for me. I have no job to go to, and I won't be allowed out for anything other than food shopping. These 10 days have been bad enough, especially as my girlfriend and I live in different T4 counties, so we can't even see each other from a distance in the park.

It's a serious drain on mental health. I can't help but feel like any more tightening of restrictions and people are going to well and truly kick off... I also can't shake the idea that they are going to do something that takes the news away from Brexit on 1 Jan, whether it be tightening or loosening restrictions or even a national lockdown. They've definitely fucked the country some way in that deal, and they won't want us to realise.

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.express.co.uk/news/politics/1376030/Covid-news-lockdown-tier-5-latest-boris-johnson-meeting-tier-4-update-map-new-strain/amp
 

The speculation seems to be based on this article which suggests Tier 5 would be more in line with the March lockdown (so no schools or non-essential workplaces, you CAN exercise but advised only to do so once a day near your home)

 

Even still, I’m not sure they’re going to call it tier 5. I think they’ll just shut the schools in tier 4. 

[steviewevie]

They still doing the mass testing thing in schools?

[MrBarry465]

6 hours ago, Suprefan said:

Yay, we get a little money now. All this over a few extra days of golfing. 

 

The relief being provided to working Americans has been an utter disgrace - you have to sympathise with business owners.

[kalifire]

5 hours ago, K2SO said:

Reading a lot on Twitter about a tier 5.

Apparently an 8pm curfew, and you can't leave the house unless for work or food. Not even exercise.

Tier 5 sounds a lot like Melbourne's lockdown: curfew from 8pm-5am; masks mandatory everywhere; can only leave the house for 2 hours a day and only then for specific reasons (essential shopping, exercise, if you're a carer); a 5km radius limit on travel from home; everything but supermarkets, petrol stations, pharmacies, banks and post offices shut down; borders closed down completely (aside from freight/trade). It's hardcore. But it works.

The problem is that the government in the UK have been farting around with insufficient half-measures for so long that the virus is now basically uncontainable, so a Tier 5 lockdown would have a limited impact. Also, Tier 5 areas would need to be secured with travel in and out eliminated. I can't see that happening.

[Crazyfool01]

App telling me to isolate for 9 days ..,, will that change with a negative test ? 

[km9]

No I don't think so. Happy to be corrected though 

Edited December 28, 2020 by km9

[Chapple12345]

15 minutes ago, crazyfool1 said:

App telling me to isolate for 9 days ..,, will that change with a negative test ? 

No it would stay the same as you may develop symptoms during that time, if you tested positive or developed the symptoms during the time that would trigger another 10 days I believe, hoping you’re all okay though