Music Festivals given go ahead from late May...

[zahidf]

 

[efcfanwirral]

 

I disagree with his key factor about social distancing review- surely that there are tests before overrides the issue of social distancing in the general population, creating a sort of regulatory bubble for events ? You'd hope so anyway 

[efcfanwirral]

Though looks like some doubt about indoor gigs. If they don't get approved now realistically it'll be 2022, as it'll hardly be safer over winter 

[bennyhana22]

32 minutes ago, efcfanwirral said:

Though looks like some doubt about indoor gigs. If they don't get approved now realistically it'll be 2022, as it'll hardly be safer over winter 

I'm not sure that's true. You have to remember that we're currently at about 70% vaccination of adults with first dose. Whilst there may be pressure to push back beyond 21 June (personally I think that will be exclusively from caution, rather than 'need' (i.e. there may be a concerning number of cases that make them jittery, even though they're not at that time translating into severe disease, hospitalisations in any significant numbers...etc), with every passing month that picture of 'security' from major clinical pressure on the NHS will go down and down. There are currently only just over 900 people in hospital in the UK with coronavirus. That is nothing on a population level, and is going down day by day, despite a small increase in daily cases nationally. The picture continues to seem to indicate that severe disease of significant volume is not being created by mixing and variants. 

Fingers crossed that that picture continues, but I defo see clubs opening later in the summer. Just maybe not on 21 June...

Ben

 

(for what it's worth, my first night out currently is booked for 6 August!)

Edited May 20, 2021 by bennyhana22

[efcfanwirral]

57 minutes ago, bennyhana22 said:

I'm not sure that's true. You have to remember that we're currently at about 70% vaccination of adults with first dose. Whilst there may be pressure to push back beyond 21 June (personally I think that will be exclusively from caution, rather than 'need' (i.e. there may be a concerning number of cases that make them jittery, even though they're not at that time translating into severe disease, hospitalisations in any significant numbers...etc), with every passing month that picture of 'security' from major clinical pressure on the NHS will go down and down. There are currently only just over 900 people in hospital in the UK with coronavirus. That is nothing on a population level, and is going down day by day, despite a small increase in daily cases nationally. The picture continues to seem to indicate that severe disease of significant volume is not being created by mixing and variants. 

Fingers crossed that that picture continues, but I defo see clubs opening later in the summer. Just maybe not on 21 June...

Ben

 

(for what it's worth, my first night out currently is booked for 6 August!)

Hope you're right! My first indoor gig is September 18th so I've got a bit longer!! 

[zahidf]

1 hour ago, efcfanwirral said:

Though looks like some doubt about indoor gigs. If they don't get approved now realistically it'll be 2022, as it'll hardly be safer over winter 

I reckon if after 2 weeks we are still really down on deaths, Bojo will bin the social distancing stuff. 15 cases out of 58k is ridiculously low

[sashabella]

This is interesting:

 

https://www.theguardian.com/lifeandstyle/2021/may/20/dogs-can-better-detect-covid-in-humans-than-lateral-flow-tests-finds-study?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Other&fbclid=IwAR0nrzmTcYgW9QsC9ogbe_Sxpa3PeJJxmqZYX2k9j_5lJYlXVRCUhvoifbE

[zahidf]

Fake SAGE doubles down on it being dangerous.

 

[philipsteak]

22 minutes ago, sashabella said:

This is interesting:

 

https://www.theguardian.com/lifeandstyle/2021/may/20/dogs-can-better-detect-covid-in-humans-than-lateral-flow-tests-finds-study?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Other&fbclid=IwAR0nrzmTcYgW9QsC9ogbe_Sxpa3PeJJxmqZYX2k9j_5lJYlXVRCUhvoifbE

My campaign to get am official covid testing dog for work starts now

[Fish Bulb]

39 minutes ago, sashabella said:

This is interesting:

 

https://www.theguardian.com/lifeandstyle/2021/may/20/dogs-can-better-detect-covid-in-humans-than-lateral-flow-tests-finds-study?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Other&fbclid=IwAR0nrzmTcYgW9QsC9ogbe_Sxpa3PeJJxmqZYX2k9j_5lJYlXVRCUhvoifbE

"This sniffer dog seems very interested in you, you must have Covid"

"Er, yeah, that'll be it. Covid..."

[DeanoL]

57 minutes ago, zahidf said:

Fake SAGE doubles down on it being dangerous.

 

She's not saying it's dangerous (in those tweets) - she's saying it's bad science. Which it is. Letting people self-select for the crucial post-event test creates a huge flaw.

But these days we only call out bad science when it comes from people saying things we don't want to hear, and support it when it confirms what we already think.

[zahidf]

19 minutes ago, DeanoL said:

She's not saying it's dangerous (in those tweets) - she's saying it's bad science. Which it is. Letting people self-select for the crucial post-event test creates a huge flaw.

But these days we only call out bad science when it comes from people saying things we don't want to hear, and support it when it confirms what we already think.

Oh, before the Trials she was saying they were dangerous and that it would lead to a spike in cases. We were having a go at her then for being stupid about it

[stuie]

1 hour ago, zahidf said:

Fake SAGE doubles down on it being dangerous.

 

What a twat. 

Infection rates fell in the area. There was no uptick. The end.

[DeanoL]

14 minutes ago, zahidf said:

Oh, before the Trials she was saying they were dangerous and that it would lead to a spike in cases. We were having a go at her then for being stupid about it

Well yeah - then would have been the time to point out the methodology was flawed.

[zero000]

1 hour ago, DeanoL said:

She's not saying it's dangerous (in those tweets) - she's saying it's bad science. Which it is. Letting people self-select for the crucial post-event test creates a huge flaw.

But these days we only call out bad science when it comes from people saying things we don't want to hear, and support it when it confirms what we already think.

There’s realistically no other way to do it though. The methodology may be flawed but you can’t coerce people into taking the tests after the events. All they could do was incentivise people taking part in the events to take the tests after. It’s not perfect science but nothing ever is. 

[lemons]

Arctangent postponed and expecting other events to follow suit. 

 

[DeanoL]

1 hour ago, zero000 said:

There’s realistically no other way to do it though. The methodology may be flawed but you can’t coerce people into taking the tests after the events. All they could do was incentivise people taking part in the events to take the tests after. It’s not perfect science but nothing ever is. 

There's a number of ways to do it. First step is to just say it's compulsory, rather than voluntary. That'll help, and have it in the conditions of sale.

Second step is to ask for a bond on the ticket purchase that is refunded after they take the test. 

Scientific trials happen all the time, it's a solved problem. This wasn't a scientific trial though.

[rivalschools.price]

2 hours ago, lemons said:

Arctangent postponed and expecting other events to follow suit. 

 

Yeah, hugely disappointing but understandable.

I was a bit hopeful for this one as the capacity is only 5000 but obviously that hasn’t made a difference.

That’s two down two to go for me, fingers crossed for  Bloodstock and Reading (and I haven’t even bought my Bloodstock ticket yet)

[zero000]

3 hours ago, DeanoL said:

There's a number of ways to do it. First step is to just say it's compulsory, rather than voluntary. That'll help, and have it in the conditions of sale.

Second step is to ask for a bond on the ticket purchase that is refunded after they take the test. 

Scientific trials happen all the time, it's a solved problem. This wasn't a scientific trial though.

It’s ethically dubious to try and make a test compulsory, it wouldn’t pass an ethics board. As it’s a medical assessment people have a right to refuse or opt out of assessment or research follow ups, which this would come under. 
 

 

 

Edited May 21, 2021 by zero000

[deepkittycaz]

6 hours ago, lemons said:

Arctangent postponed and expecting other events to follow suit. 

 

Gutted. But think they had no other option.

[rivalschools.price]

Just read that Metz have rescheduled their September UK tour to April next year on top of yesterday’s news that The Ocean have also rescheduled their July tour to 2022.

Not positive news but as both need to come from overseas I’m not taking it as a definite sign that I won’t be going to any gigs any time soon.

Hopefully we’ll see some UK bands tours going ahead this year.

Ive lost track a bit, I’ve now not got any idea when my next gig is, haha.

[DeanoL]

On 5/21/2021 at 5:13 PM, zero000 said:

It’s ethically dubious to try and make a test compulsory, it wouldn’t pass an ethics board. As it’s a medical assessment people have a right to refuse or opt out of assessment or research follow ups, which this would come under. 

You're right. Even in medical trials people can opt out. I guess that's my point: if this is an actual trial, it should be run like a medical trial, not like a club night, selling tickets for it. It should have first and foremost been "promoted" as a scientific trial, not an event they were just happening to test around.

[Homer]

Just got a press release and an offer of some passes to that Big Foot festival that is taking place before the final restrictions are lifted - so they still seem to think they are going ahead.

Had a quick scan and no specifics on how they are going to pull it off!

[sadimmock]

4 minutes ago, Homer said:

Just got a press release and an offer of some passes to that Big Foot festival that is taking place before the final restrictions are lifted - so they still seem to think they are going ahead.

Had a quick scan and no specifics on how they are going to pull it off!

I think that they are assuming that social distancing will still be in force at the festival. 

[bennyhana22]

8 minutes ago, Homer said:

Just got a press release and an offer of some passes to that Big Foot festival that is taking place before the final restrictions are lifted - so they still seem to think they are going ahead.

Had a quick scan and no specifics on how they are going to pull it off!

Yeah, that is still quite mysterious.

In more positive thread news, the latest figures released regarding the effectiveness of UK vaccines in preventing serious illness caused by the 'Indian' variant (as I've droned on before, serious illness really is all that 'matters'...) are massively encouraging. I would say that if the remaining festival organisers can hold their nerve for another 2-3 weeks (i.e. until almost 21 June), then there are grounds for optimism that some of them will go ahead. 

I genuinely cannot see any current scientific model that would justify deviation from the roadmap and so a return to mass gatherings. But then, that's me being logical and scientific, which as we know is no guarantee of anything with this shower.

Ben

Edited May 24, 2021 by bennyhana22