Will the 2021 festival go ahead?

[Leyrulion]

16 minutes ago, squirrelarmy said:

Just extrapolate those figures for Glastonbury attendance and you’ll see that it’s a complete non starter. That’s before you think about having to set up a mobile laboratory on every gate. 

Oh I agree it's not going to work for Glastonbury but for the festival mentioned it might.

 

Let's do the thought experiment though despite how out of the question it is

Assume the staff get their tests done before hand. To test all 135,000 people at 12 tests an hour you need 11250 hours of staff time. 

That's 1,000 people doing one 12 hour shift. (Rounded up). Add on the same again for shift cover and processing the tests the other side.That's 2,000 extra man power needed.

Reckon Oxfam could find the volunteers to fill that easily. You don't need medical training to take the swab.

Rejig the entrances to have another "security" station before you get to ticket check. I've only done gate D but if I remember there is space there. Big tent of 250 people at each gate 

 

They already have permission to increase capacity by 7k and presumably could accommodate those when they did, so camping space for the "covid volunteers" isn't a problem.

The main bottleneck is the half hour wait time. Obviously not everyone arrives in the same 12 hour window so you could spread some of the load out over Wednesday and Thursday.

But there's no good place to funnel people into.

This kind of assumes some people will have a 12 hour wait, which is not ideal...

As for coaches you do it before they get on. Arrive 1 hour early. Swab all 50 people, only get on if it's clear. Coaches go straight through the gate to ticket check. 

trains and cars are your own risk, everyone should be wearing masks when traveling down.

 

Can you tell I've not much to do right now?

 

 

 

[squirrelarmy]

3 minutes ago, Leyrulion said:

Can you tell I've not much to do right now?

 

Yeah 😂 good to see some actual numbers though. 
 

One positive from on the gate testing is there would be another 2,000 volunteers who would get free entry to the festival. That’s good for the oxfam lot. 
 

The most challenging part of on the gate testing is what you do with those people who test positive and those who are around them. Even a 1% rate would mean over 10,000 unhappy people at the gates with no way of getting back for many of them if their group has already gone in. 
 

They would probably have to create a mini festival adjacent to the main site to keep people quarantined away from the majority of the festival goers, set up a stage for them and their own bars and I’m sure they will keep themselves entertained for the duration!  

[balthazarstarbuck]

34 minutes ago, zahidf said:

This is pretty optimistic on massively reducing the risk of death by spring. If that's the case then game on 

 

Very simplistic (especially ignoring underlying conditions) but the general jist of vaccinating 20% of people reducing 80% of the fatality risk checks out to me.

[Suprefan]

https://liveforlivemusic.com/news/live-nation-joe-berchtold-concerts-return-2021-watch/

[Lycra]

3 hours ago, squirrelarmy said:

Yeah 😂 good to see some actual numbers though. 
 

One positive from on the gate testing is there would be another 2,000 volunteers who would get free entry to the festival. That’s good for the oxfam lot. 
 

The most challenging part of on the gate testing is what you do with those people who test positive and those who are around them. Even a 1% rate would mean over 10,000 unhappy people at the gates with no way of getting back for many of them if their group has already gone in. 
 

They would probably have to create a mini festival adjacent to the main site to keep people quarantined away from the majority of the festival goers, set up a stage for them and their own bars and I’m sure they will keep themselves entertained for the duration!  

How does the latest data on rapid tests only being 50% accurate play on this 🤔🤔🤔🤔

Hopefully their accurate will improve by Glasto time.....If it's not cancelled beforehand.

Actually the worst part of doing rapid tests at the gate is you've made 235,000 people travel often in close proximity in a contained environment before detecting covid positives. It's probably a worse scenario than a covid positive attending inside the fence 🤔

Edited December 9, 2020 by Lycra

[xxialac]

3 hours ago, squirrelarmy said:

Yeah 😂 good to see some actual numbers though. 
 

One positive from on the gate testing is there would be another 2,000 volunteers who would get free entry to the festival. That’s good for the oxfam lot. 
 

The most challenging part of on the gate testing is what you do with those people who test positive and those who are around them. Even a 1% rate would mean over 10,000 unhappy people at the gates with no way of getting back for many of them if their group has already gone in. 
 

They would probably have to create a mini festival adjacent to the main site to keep people quarantined away from the majority of the festival goers, set up a stage for them and their own bars and I’m sure they will keep themselves entertained for the duration!  

Sorry for being a bit dim but isn't the capacity 175,000 so 1% rate would be 1,750. Or are you assuming each person travels with 4 friends? I think they would also tell you to travel to the festival masked and if you are negative you are not punished for your friend testing positive. It will never be possible to stop 100% of infected people getting in, this is about reducing it to the absolute minimum.

Plus the rate of people testing positive would definitely be far less than 1% by June.

It's 1% today in Winter, something will have go seriously wrong for it to be worse than, say, 0.1% in the Summer and with the benefit of all the interventions and people now with antibodies.

That translates to 175 people positive and who have to go home (plus any family members who go back with them out of solidarity) and avoid others as much as possible on their way back.

Those 175 unfortunate souls miss out so that 174,825 can go.

Seems fair enough.

 

[Zoo Music Girl]

34 minutes ago, xxialac said:

Sorry for being a bit dim but isn't the capacity 175,000 so 1% rate would be 1,750. Or are you assuming each person travels with 4 friends? I think they would also tell you to travel to the festival masked and if you are negative you are not punished for your friend testing positive. It will never be possible to stop 100% of infected people getting in, this is about reducing it to the absolute minimum.

Plus the rate of people testing positive would definitely be far less than 1% by June.

It's 1% today in Winter, something will have go seriously wrong for it to be worse than, say, 0.1% in the Summer and with the benefit of all the interventions and people now with antibodies.

That translates to 175 people positive and who have to go home (plus any family members who go back with them out of solidarity) and avoid others as much as possible on their way back.

Those 175 unfortunate souls miss out so that 174,825 can go.

Seems fair enough.

 

I don't think they'll ever test at the gates for the many reasons outlined, but just for arguments sake what about people who test positive who came by coach or train? Are they putting on covid coaches for those people to go back on?

Edited December 9, 2020 by Zoo Music Girl

[Zoo Music Girl]

And actually even for people who drive with friends? I can't see any way they can get home without coming into contact with loads of people. 

[Joshuwarr]

4 hours ago, zahidf said:

This is pretty optimistic on massively reducing the risk of death by spring. If that's the case then game on 

 

Love this to be honest

[Zoo Music Girl]

3 minutes ago, Zoo Music Girl said:

I don't think they'll ever test at the gates for the many reasons outlined, but just for arguments sake what about people who test positive who came by coach or train? Are they putting on covid coaches for those people to go back on?

Actually I suppose they could test before you get on the coach. You'd still have a lot of people having to get straight back on public transport though if they test positive.

[xxialac]

5 minutes ago, Zoo Music Girl said:

I don't think they'll ever test at the gates for the many reasons outlined, but just for arguments sake what about people who test positive who came by coach or train? Are they putting on covid coaches for those people to go back on?

Yeah, you're right and I half regret posting that. 

I think it's moot. But if there's testing - and there could well be - it will all take place prior to coming a bit like with aviation now.

But to play this out theoretically, if it's only 175 people all day, it wouldn't be difficult to get them to a train station e.g. by a secure taxi service and then they're on their own to go back as safely as they can. 

The key point is that these people were carrying Covid anyway.

If anything, the festival would have done society a favour by flagging it and getting them to self-isolate.

Edited December 9, 2020 by xxialac

[Ozanne]

Testing in the lead up to the festival is the only viable option really, if you do it in the gate it leaves too many variables in play. 

[Crazyfool01]

Just now, Zoo Music Girl said:

Actually I suppose they could test before you get on the coach. You'd still have a lot of people having to get straight back on public transport though if they test positive.

I guess it would be better than the tube at rush hour ?! With no testing ? 

[xxialac]

Just now, crazyfool1 said:

I guess it would be better than the tube at rush hour ?! With no testing ? 

Exactly! Infinitely better.

[Zoo Music Girl]

Just now, crazyfool1 said:

I guess it would be better than the tube at rush hour ?! With no testing ? 

Well for us and the time of day we tend to travel we would pretty much have to turn around and get back on the tube at rush hour having tested positive. Or get a cab. Which is a bit of a dick move for the cab driver.

[stuartbert two hats]

2 minutes ago, Zoo Music Girl said:

Well for us and the time of day we tend to travel we would pretty much have to turn around and get back on the tube at rush hour having tested positive. Or get a cab. Which is a bit of a dick move for the cab driver.

Of course, there's a good chance the taxi driver will have been vaccinated by the end of June.

[xxialac]

1 minute ago, Zoo Music Girl said:

Well for us and the time of day we tend to travel we would pretty much have to turn around and get back on the tube at rush hour having tested positive. Or get a cab. Which is a bit of a dick move for the cab driver.

But this is:

- 1 'edgy' journey (now knowing you are positive)

reduced from 

- Multiple edgy journeys and general mingling (being blissfully unaware)

It's a big win generally.

[Zoo Music Girl]

To be honest, though, I'm just arguing from a devil's advocate perspective. I don't think they will require testing on entry by June. I think either covid is low enough in the population and enough are vaccinated that it goes ahead at people's own risk or it doesn't go ahead at all. I lean more towards the former given the political will to lift all restrictions (not saying that's right, that's just how I think it will go).

[Crazyfool01]

1 minute ago, Zoo Music Girl said:

Well for us and the time of day we tend to travel we would pretty much have to turn around and get back on the tube at rush hour having tested positive. Or get a cab. Which is a bit of a dick move for the cab driver.

What I was trying to say is that by that point the tube will be operating at a fuller capacity than now ... there won’t be any testing for that .... and every chance of some spreading of covid ... it shouldn’t be Glastonbury’s fault / responsibility that some tests will get positives . The festival will just be highlighting those 

[Zoo Music Girl]

1 minute ago, stuartbert two hats said:

Of course, there's a good chance the taxi driver will have been vaccinated by the end of June.

True. A lot of them aren't much older than me though so maybe I will be if he/she has been!

[Zoo Music Girl]

Just now, crazyfool1 said:

What I was trying to say is that by that point the tube will be operating at a fuller capacity than now ... there won’t be any testing for that .... and every chance of some spreading of covid ... it shouldn’t be Glastonbury’s fault / responsibility that some tests will get positives . The festival will just be highlighting those 

No it won't be Glastonbury's fault. But partly for the reasons you outline (tube operating at full capacity etc) I don't think testing will be required for the festival if it goes ahead.

[Zoo Music Girl]

1 minute ago, Zoo Music Girl said:

True. A lot of them aren't much older than me though so maybe I will be if he/she has been!

Actually quite often they are younger these days! I'm so old.

[Fuzzy Afro]

4 hours ago, zahidf said:

This is pretty optimistic on massively reducing the risk of death by spring. If that's the case then game on 

 

If deaths and hospitalisations are down like this then I’m not sure there’s any need for pre festival testing 

[Crazyfool01]

2 minutes ago, Zoo Music Girl said:

No it won't be Glastonbury's fault. But partly for the reasons you outline (tube operating at full capacity etc) I don't think testing will be required for the festival if it goes ahead.

Yep agreed ... 

[Ozanne]

3 minutes ago, Zoo Music Girl said:

No it won't be Glastonbury's fault. But partly for the reasons you outline (tube operating at full capacity etc) I don't think testing will be required for the festival if it goes ahead.

Not even if people can get tested say a say or 2 before and log the negative result against their reg?

It covers for all the possible concerns that testing on the gate would bring up.