Glasto 21 DEFFO ON says lawyer

[Ryan1984]

4 minutes ago, Matt42 said:

I think it will hit a point where the young and the healthy will be encouraged to go back into society and the vulnerable waiting for a vaccine still to self isolate etc.

As sad and unfair as this is, it might be the only way to kickstart the economy? The vulnerable would definitely need a solid date for when they could stop isolating though.

[xxialac]

Nah, social distancing in general is here to stay and well beyond the Summer. 

But that doesn't mean things can't reopen.

Social distancing will now be able to be 'turned off' in certain situations thanks to the vulnerable being vaccinated Only where there is a controlled and testable audience i.e. for enclosed and ticketed mass events - concerts, festivals, sports events etc.

[xxialac]

The equation is:

At risk population vaccinated + testing all ticketholders on entrance + R number under control = festivals allowed

Edited November 10, 2020 by xxialac

[blutarsky]

I’ll be honest with you all. I don’t have the energy or time to keep up with all the Covid threads on this forum including this one, even though I started it.

So i’d be really grateful if someone would quote this post and summarise for me, whether everyone is shitting themselves with excitement that Glastonbury is happening because of the vaccine, or not. 

[jparx]

Echo the comments re: government opening up as quickly as possible. 

Glastonbury isn’t the only thing happening in June/July either. Tonnes of other festivals and sporting events will be due to take place and they all, ideally, need as much notice as possible. The government will not drag their heels when so much of the economy is begging to reopen. I imagine once the vaccine is approved they will have a timetable ready to go, and that will be circulated to industries for decision making. The government should be able to project fairly early on what the state of play will look like in June.

I’m also not fully convinced by the January date for making a decision. That may normally be the point of no return, but this is a vastly different industry and economy now. I’m sure they have done everything they can to delay that decision as late as possible, particularly now we know it’s likely a vaccine will have begun its rollout by then.

[Ryan1984]

The football Euros are all across Europe next year. If it’s safe to travel by then, that could be good news for the travel industry as well?

[sisco]

By festival season (and it could still be too late for Glastonbury due to the site set up etc...) we’ll be at the stage of taking temperatures on the way into gigs/festivals with the advisory of wearing masks and having extra cleaning stations around. 

[xxialac]

2 minutes ago, jparx said:

I’m also not fully convinced by the January date for making a decision. That may normally be the point of no return, but this is a vastly different industry and economy now. I’m sure they have done everything they can to delay that decision as late as possible, particularly now we know it’s likely a vaccine will have begun its rollout by then.

Totally agree with this. 

The suppliers are as desperate to get a payday as anyone else, if not more.

Why would they insist that they are contractually secure by January if it means they are guaranteeing not getting paid at all as it inevitably causes the plug to be pulled then?

They'll just have to accept contracts with more get-out clauses...

[eFestivals]

6 minutes ago, jparx said:

I’m also not fully convinced by the January date for making a decision. That may normally be the point of no return, but this is a vastly different industry and economy now. I’m sure they have done everything they can to delay that decision as late as possible, particularly now we know it’s likely a vaccine will have begun its rollout by then.

yeah, I'm with you on that.

If a vaccine is being rolled out before xmas I can see festivals - some of them, anyway - taking the gamble that things will come good further down the line.

How easy that gamble is to take will depend on what the govt is saying, both publicly and privately.

[Matt42]

If you thought lockdown compliance and resistance was bad just wait until people start getting vaccinated.

I reckon the gov will have to issue guidance that if you are waiting on a vaccine you will be allowed to continue to self isolate, but if you are considered low risk and will be waiting longer - you can go back into the world.

I’m sorry but you won’t be able to keep everyone inside if there’s a vaccine around, and the resistance to it will be pretty staggering. I think starting a reopening process would appease those who feel disillusioned with further lockdown. It should move to a stage where you isolate based on your own personal circumstances.

[JoeyT]

1 minute ago, Matt42 said:

If you thought lockdown compliance and resistance was bad just wait until people start getting vaccinated.

I reckon the gov will have to issue guidance that if you are waiting on a vaccine you will be allowed to continue to self isolate, but if you are considered low risk and will be waiting longer - you can go back into the world.

I’m sorry but you won’t be able to keep everyone inside if there’s a vaccine around, and the resistance to it will be pretty staggering. I think starting a reopening process would appease those who feel disillusioned with further lockdown. It should move to a stage where you isolate based on your own personal circumstances.

I was on a zoom meeting yesterday and we were talking covid.

7 of us in the meeting and I was the only one who still had the NHS app on my phone. Every other person had deleted it as they didn't want the hassle of being told to self isolate.

These are very academically switched on people (one of which is the Managing Partner) 

I don't think it can be understated how little people now care for the guidance.

[dingbat2]

Wont they do the same as what they do with flu jabs? Identify the most at risk groups, vaccinate them, but then allow the spread of the virus to circulate amongst the rest of the population who will on the whole not suffer too badly. Say the key workers, vulnerable and anyone over 50, maybe even lower depending on the availability of the vaccine. A few of the less at risk group people will have very adverse effects, so the priority becomes identifying them asap and treating them which we are much better at now. No need for social distancing and the economy can get back on its feet?

[zahidf]

9 minutes ago, Matt42 said:

If you thought lockdown compliance and resistance was bad just wait until people start getting vaccinated.

I reckon the gov will have to issue guidance that if you are waiting on a vaccine you will be allowed to continue to self isolate, but if you are considered low risk and will be waiting longer - you can go back into the world.

I’m sorry but you won’t be able to keep everyone inside if there’s a vaccine around, and the resistance to it will be pretty staggering. I think starting a reopening process would appease those who feel disillusioned with further lockdown. It should move to a stage where you isolate based on your own personal circumstances.

Yup. Why should a young person social distance if nan isn't going to die?

I'm thinking they are better of encouraging people staying at home if ill, hygiene and mask wearing in enclosed spaces like the tube

[Matt42]

18 minutes ago, JoeyT said:

I was on a zoom meeting yesterday and we were talking covid.

7 of us in the meeting and I was the only one who still had the NHS app on my phone. Every other person had deleted it as they didn't want the hassle of being told to self isolate.

These are very academically switched on people (one of which is the Managing Partner) 

I don't think it can be understated how little people now care for the guidance.

 

14 minutes ago, zahidf said:

Yup. Why should a young person social distance if nan isn't going to die?

I'm thinking they are better of encouraging people staying at home if ill, hygiene and mask wearing in enclosed spaces like the tube

Exactly, and it’s silly to think this isn’t going to drop off even further if there’s the safety of a vaccine.

I imagine some classed as vulnerable will probably be a bit annoyed they have to stay indoors for a bit, but there’s a road out now. It’s now actually not fair to keep everyone inside when the numbers of people at risk will start going down.

[JoeyT]

Just now, Matt42 said:

Exactly, and it’s silly to think this isn’t going to drop off even further if there’s the safety of a vaccine.

I imagine some classed as vulnerable will probably be a bit annoyed they have to stay indoors for a bit, but there’s a road out now. It’s now actually not fair to keep everyone inside when the numbers of people at risk will start going down.

To expand slightly on my post:

Mother in Law has the NHS app and was told to self isolate as she'd had close contact with someone who had tested positive (which she is currently doing)

Her friend who was also sat at the table with the since identified positive case doesn't have the app and therefore wasn't told to self isolate therefore isn't.

[Copperface]

There is a great deal of difference between 'life should be returning to normal by Spring' and 'life will have returned to normal by Spring'.

Think many have jumped on Professor Bell's comment prematurely and interpreted it in the most optimistic way they can.

The rollout of any vaccine is just another step in a long road with other measures in place for a fair bit of time yet . 

Yes, it is the start of a lengthy managed return to 'normal' but surely too late for mass events next summer (especially earlier events in May/June/July) .

[Matt42]

4 minutes ago, Copperface said:

There is a great deal of difference between 'life should be returning to normal by Spring' and 'life will have returned to normal by Spring'.

Think many have jumped on Professor Bell's comment prematurely and interpreted it in the most optimistic way they can.

The rollout of any vaccine is just another step in a long road with other measures in place for a fair bit of time yet . 

Yes, it is the start of a lengthy managed return to 'normal' but surely too late for mass events next summer (especially earlier events in May/June/July) .

I don’t see it this way. If people are being vaccinated then we have to start reopening stuff.

If the most vulnerable people get the vaccine first then it should be down to your own personal circumstances what you commit to and what risk you put yourself forward for.

Also, economic pressure will soon start hitting hard. Why should the events industry miss a whole summer if the vulnerable have been vaccinated?

[jparx]

32 minutes ago, JoeyT said:

I was on a zoom meeting yesterday and we were talking covid.

7 of us in the meeting and I was the only one who still had the NHS app on my phone. Every other person had deleted it as they didn't want the hassle of being told to self isolate.

These are very academically switched on people (one of which is the Managing Partner) 

I don't think it can be understated how little people now care for the guidance.

Yeah I’ve had similar experience tbh. 
 

Went over to drop some gifts off at a relatives yesterday, stood a few feet away from the door as they opened and they invited me in. I said well no, we’re not allowed. “Well I know, but do you want to come in anyway?”.  Again, very smart, sensible bloke. Told him i was at work on Friday around a load of students and he changed his tune 😂

[jparx]

2 minutes ago, Matt42 said:

I don’t see it this way. If people are being vaccinated then we have to start reopening stuff.

If the most vulnerable people get the vaccine first then it should be down to your own personal circumstances what you commit to and what risk you put yourself forward for.

Also, economic pressure will soon start hitting hard. Why should the events industry miss a whole summer if the vulnerable have been vaccinated?

Yeah, and also once the vulnerable start to get vaccinated it will ease the pressure on the NHS enormously. Once it’s a “at your own risk” situation and the NHS isn’t at risk of being overwhelmed, I think the economy starts to open fairly quickly. 
 

“Eat out to out” shows you they don’t care about our health and they want us younger people pumping money in the economy.

[Copperface]

3 minutes ago, Matt42 said:

If people are being vaccinated then we have to start reopening stuff.

Also, economic pressure will soon start hitting hard. Why should the events industry miss a whole summer if the vulnerable have been vaccinated?

And they will reopen stuff. Gradually. 

Other affected industries are far bigger than events/festivals and they will take priority. They'll want to revive tourism etc. Some time ago I gave figures that the festival and events industry is worth £2.5 bn whereas general tourism was worth £105 bn. Yes, the two are linked, but there will still be certain sectors that they will prioritise over others.

Not sure 235,000 people in a field is a demographic the Tories are particularly fussed about and they will gladly sacrifice that to revive other bigger parts of the economy. 

 

[eFestivals]

9 minutes ago, Copperface said:

There is a great deal of difference between 'life should be returning to normal by Spring' and 'life will have returned to normal by Spring'.

Think many have jumped on Professor Bell's comment prematurely and interpreted it in the most optimistic way they can.

The rollout of any vaccine is just another step in a long road with other measures in place for a fair bit of time yet . 

Yes, it is the start of a lengthy managed return to 'normal' but surely too late for mass events next summer (especially earlier events in May/June/July) .

while I agree that's how it should be done in an ideal world, I can't really see it working like that as we don't live in an ideal world.

Firstly there's the tory MPs who are going to kick off if there's major restrictions beyond the spring.

But more importantly, there's the public who just aren't going to stand for on-going restrictions. Sure, the govt can have some rules (say) saying that social distancing must continue (so festivals are still essentially banned), but it's not something the public are going to follow to any great degree.

So the govt will be faced with the dilemma of having rules that no one follows and looking foolish for it, or adjusting the rules (if there's any rules at all) to be something the public will sort-of still follow.

The best I reckon they will be able to get the public to go along with is to be tested in some shape or form. 

[Avalon_Fields]

8 minutes ago, Matt42 said:

I don’t see it this way. If people are being vaccinated then we have to start reopening stuff.

If the most vulnerable people get the vaccine first then it should be down to your own personal circumstances what you commit to and what risk you put yourself forward for.

Also, economic pressure will soon start hitting hard. Why should the events industry miss a whole summer if the vulnerable have been vaccinated?

I agree.

 

The average age of death by Covid-19 is in the 80's, so it's reasonable to expect a significant proportion of the elderly will be safe within a small number of months, all being well. Yes, younger people will still have every chance of getting infected, but a very small chance of dying so this doesn't in my view legitimise further lockdowns. (If it were, we may as well lockdown every winter due to the 10,000's who die of the flu).

[eFestivals]

3 minutes ago, Copperface said:

And they will reopen stuff. Gradually. 

Other affected industries are far bigger than events/festivals and they will take priority. They'll want to revive tourism etc. Some time ago I gave figures that the festival and events industry is worth £2.5 bn whereas general tourism was worth £105 bn. Yes, the two are linked, but there will still be certain sectors that they will prioritise over others.

Not sure 235,000 people in a field is a demographic the Tories are particularly fussed about and they will gladly sacrifice that to revive other bigger parts of the economy. 

 

one of the best ways to show the world that the country is back to normal and open for tourism would be with an event that has worldwide interest (and make the UK look cool). I wonder what the govt will come up with?  

I agree with your general point but it requires a compliant population which isn't going to exist - so other possibilities are about equal to what you're suggesting.

 

[Ayrshire Chris]

On 10/27/2020 at 3:55 PM, danmarks said:

For what its worth (probably nothing) Butlins have formally cancelled music weekends up to March today. 

Possibly because they can furlough staff until then. They basically have written off their winter schedule. I know several haven workers and they have been told contracts will start the week before Easter assuming things have got better. 

[Lycra]

55 minutes ago, Copperface said:

There is a great deal of difference between 'life should be returning to normal by Spring' and 'life will have returned to normal by Spring'.

Think many have jumped on Professor Bell's comment prematurely and interpreted it in the most optimistic way they can.

The rollout of any vaccine is just another step in a long road with other measures in place for a fair bit of time yet . 

Yes, it is the start of a lengthy managed return to 'normal' but surely too late for mass events next summer (especially earlier events in May/June/July) .

Agree. Whilst the news is extremely welcome and positive it's necessary to read & listen to all the caveats expressed by JVT and other experts. Government will only be able to relax rules when the number of Covid cases & hospitalization sdecline to an acceptable level. Vaccination can play a significant part in this but in the initial roll out it's impact could be a slow build rather big impact necessary for other restrictions to be relaxed.