When will this shit end?

[Deaf Nobby Burton]

Awful for a country like India, they have a genuine dichotomy where by lockdown could lead to as many families starving to death as would be killed by the virus by releasing lockdown.

[Ozanne]

2 minutes ago, Deaf Nobby Burton said:

Awful for a country like India, they have a genuine dichotomy where by lockdown could lead to as many families starving to death as would be killed by the virus by releasing lockdown.

It must be so difficult for countries like that, I hope when we have a handle on it here we can provide support to those countries. 

[parsonjack]

35 minutes ago, Ozanne said:

It must be so difficult for countries like that, I hope when we have a handle on it here we can provide support to those countries. 

I fear our ability to do so is going to be severely limited by our own economic position.  Charity donations will surely be massively impacted, so unless Govt funded aid is forthcoming (fat chance from a Govt reeling from disastrous handling of the pandemic and trying to claw back right wing votes) countries such as India will struggle for sufficient aid, at least from UK.  Very sad.  I truly hope they can get through this 😟

[steviewevie]

45 minutes ago, Ozanne said:

It must be so difficult for countries like that, I hope when we have a handle on it here we can provide support to those countries. 

first dibs on a vaccine...?

[Sasperella]

48 minutes ago, parsonjack said:

I fear our ability to do so is going to be severely limited by our own economic position.  Charity donations will surely be massively impacted, so unless Govt funded aid is forthcoming (fat chance from a Govt reeling from disastrous handling of the pandemic and trying to claw back right wing votes) countries such as India will struggle for sufficient aid, at least from UK.  Very sad.  I truly hope they can get through this 😟

Also, to add another problem to the mix, UK aid is pegged to 0.7% of GDI. Which is great when the Tories want to make cuts in normal times because they can't touch it. But if the economy shrinks massively, the aid budget is fucked. 

[Sawdusty surfer]

First of all,I'm sorry if this has already been discussed. Someone suggested that I look at my Google phone preferances. Seems I've got a Covid Govt thing on there. Can anyone shed any light on this? Cheers, yours in ignorance , Sawdusty.

[Crazyfool01]

7 minutes ago, Sawdusty Surfer said:

First of all,I'm sorry if this has already been discussed. Someone suggested that I look at my Google phone preferances. Seems I've got a Covid Govt thing on there. Can anyone shed any light on this? Cheers, yours in ignorance , Sawdusty.

dont know if this is similar to what you are saying ? .....

https://9to5google.com/2020/05/04/android-covid-19-settings/

[rascalpete]

What are your guys thoughts on the timescales for air bridges. Do you think we will see restrictions lifted by the end of June?

[Lizzim]

4 hours ago, Funkyfairy! said:

Even when shops open its not a pleasant browsing experience, our high street is packed but the actual shops are empty - people are queuing to get in, and once in you don't browse, its in and out , get what you want /need and exit

We move the level 2 from midnight tonight - restaurants indoors can open, campsites (for anyone totally self sufficient eg vans etc) , gyms (but no changing rooms and no exertion above a level 5 - which apparently means you must be able to hold a conversation or sing a song without getting breathless) - I reckon I can manage Billy Eilish in the warm up but Whitney no way - and swimming pools can open but not changing rooms - so you have to treat it like going to the beach, arrive in costume and leave in wet costume -!!! - we still can't book a table outside a restaurant with anyone outside of household but can have a BBQ with up t 20 people (distanced)

There is talk of us moving to level 1 end of June which means 1 mtre distancing and pubs can open

Guernsey are moving to no distancing , everything open and keep borders closed apart from essential travel where there are strict rules around quarantine when returning and spot checks

Are you in Jersey?    We are due to visit at the end of July - we have family there.   Not sure what the situation will be like then for hotels - or if we would have to quarantine  (even though it is the common travel area).   All depending of course on Easy Jet flying and the hotel being open by then.

It's all very strange and confusing.  

[Toilet Duck]

1 hour ago, rascalpete said:

What are your guys thoughts on the timescales for air bridges. Do you think we will see restrictions lifted by the end of June?

To be completely honest, no. July 1st is when most EU countries are opening back up for international visitors...as yet, UK (and Ireland) not on the list for inclusion. My flight to Spain at the end of July was just cancelled today, don’t know whether that means the airline has been told something we haven’t yet! End of June seems too close with the daily case numbers in the UK at the moment. You can come to Ireland though! 

[FestivalJamie]

3 hours ago, Toilet Duck said:

To be completely honest, no. July 1st is when most EU countries are opening back up for international visitors...as yet, UK (and Ireland) not on the list for inclusion. My flight to Spain at the end of July was just cancelled today, don’t know whether that means the airline has been told something we haven’t yet! End of June seems too close with the daily case numbers in the UK at the moment. You can come to Ireland though! 

Easy Jet, BA and Ryanair are threatening to take legal action against the gov due to the quarantine. I have read online they have been promised air bridges will be in place by the end of June, and quarantine scrapped by mid July. Whether this has any weight to it I cannot say.

Regardless, most EU countries are actually opening their borders up to EU (tourists) from as early as next week. The only caveat if you want to go away being the quarantine on return. It's also extremely hard to get a flight due to this new imposed quarantine so driving across the euro tunnel is the best option if anyone wants a european break in a country with lower Covid stats. (although you would be travelling against FCO advice- but I believe this will change end of June personally).

Italy reopened to the UK on 3rd June.

Netherlands has been open to the UK the whole time.

France, Belgium, Croatia, Germany & Iceland will reopen to the UK on the 15th June. (France has a voluntary quarantine for uk visitors).

Other countries, such as Greece, Spain and Austria, have specifically banned UK visitors until further notice, but most of the other EU countries are following suit in reopening borders mid June to the EU. As we are in the transition phase we are included in this unless the country has specifically banned us. Yet our government is doing the opposite with the quarantine.

The quarantine will not last further than mid July for those from EU countries, I am reasonably confident of it.

If you wish to keep updated on where you can travel, this is a good website: https://www.euronews.com/2020/06/11/which-european-countries-have-opened-their-borders-ahead-of-the-summer-holiday-season

Edited June 12, 2020 by FestivalJamie

[rascalpete]

5 hours ago, FestivalJamie said:

Easy Jet, BA and Ryanair are threatening to take legal action against the gov due to the quarantine. I have read online they have been promised air bridges will be in place by the end of June, and quarantine scrapped by mid July. Whether this has any weight to it I cannot say.

Regardless, most EU countries are actually opening their borders up to EU (tourists) from as early as next week. The only caveat if you want to go away being the quarantine on return. It's also extremely hard to get a flight due to this new imposed quarantine so driving across the euro tunnel is the best option if anyone wants a european break in a country with lower Covid stats. (although you would be travelling against FCO advice- but I believe this will change end of June personally).

Italy reopened to the UK on 3rd June.

Netherlands has been open to the UK the whole time.

France, Belgium, Croatia, Germany & Iceland will reopen to the UK on the 15th June. (France has a voluntary quarantine for uk visitors).

Other countries, such as Greece, Spain and Austria, have specifically banned UK visitors until further notice, but most of the other EU countries are following suit in reopening borders mid June to the EU. As we are in the transition phase we are included in this unless the country has specifically banned us. Yet our government is doing the opposite with the quarantine.

The quarantine will not last further than mid July for those from EU countries, I am reasonably confident of it.

If you wish to keep updated on where you can travel, this is a good website: https://www.euronews.com/2020/06/11/which-european-countries-have-opened-their-borders-ahead-of-the-summer-holiday-season

 

8 hours ago, Toilet Duck said:

To be completely honest, no. July 1st is when most EU countries are opening back up for international visitors...as yet, UK (and Ireland) not on the list for inclusion. My flight to Spain at the end of July was just cancelled today, don’t know whether that means the airline has been told something we haven’t yet! End of June seems too close with the daily case numbers in the UK at the moment. You can come to Ireland though! 

Thanks guys, we have flights booked to Croatia mid July, still hasn’t been cancelled so not sure what’s going to happen, some of the group don’t work in jobs where they would be able to quarantine for 2 weeks so it’s touch and go at the mo

[steviewevie]

Scary numbers coming out of ONS this morning. 20.4% GDP drop in April! They predict it to fall 11.5% for year if no 2nd wave, 14% if needed a 2nd lockdown.

Newnight was interesting last night. They were going on about how govt messaging worked well in scarying everyone into staying home, and now they need to get the economy going but people are still too scared.

Edited June 12, 2020 by steviewevie

[steviewevie]

[steviewevie]

back to the 90s.

[Toilet Duck]

6 hours ago, FestivalJamie said:

Easy Jet, BA and Ryanair are threatening to take legal action against the gov due to the quarantine. I have read online they have been promised air bridges will be in place by the end of June, and quarantine scrapped by mid July. Whether this has any weight to it I cannot say.

 

Yeah, this is what I was expecting too, but when my flight at the end of July was cancelled yesterday, I started to wonder. I think it’s going to be country by country by the looks of it. Our government has suggested air bridges to Portugal and Greece later in the summer (they specifically mentioned August hopefully), so who knows. Issue isn’t EU membership, it’s Schengen, and Ireland (and UK) are not members, so we seem to be left out at the moment. I had hoped to still get away this summer, but having the decision made for me has made it easier to accept I probably won’t! You guys might, but seems in Ireland they plan on keeping us in the country for a good while yet... 

[Chef]

1 hour ago, steviewevie said:

Scary numbers coming out of ONS this morning. 20.4% GDP drop in April! They predict it to fall 11.5% for year if no 2nd wave, 14% if needed a 2nd lockdown.

Newnight was interesting last night. They were going on about how govt messaging worked well in scarying everyone into staying home, and now they need to get the economy going but people are still too scared.

I don't think you can read to much in to this, it is as expected with much of the economy completely closed for the whole month. You could even flip it and say maintaining 80% output in such dire and unusual circumstances is a pretty good result. 

The really important thing will be what happens next quarter to the end of September which will very much shape, and give an indication of, the future (assuming no second wave when no scenario would be off the table) with the current quarter already pretty much written off and a major contraction guaranteed. That said we should see some shoots of growth in the end of this quarter with the easing of lockdown restrictions. 

Seeing some of the predictions and forecast modelling at work, some were touting a worst case contraction this year of 25%. I'd say anywhere round the 10% mark would actually be pretty remarkable in the circumstances, as bad as it is. 

[Neil]

6 minutes ago, Chef said:

You could even flip it and say maintaining 80% output in such dire and unusual circumstances is a pretty good result.

yep, there's more than one way to look at this.

Output dropped, but so did consumption - and the real damage comes from the gap between the two.

Edited June 12, 2020 by Neil

[alanr]

15 hours ago, Ozanne said:

I’ve read about a possible 2nd spike in Iran too. That could be a result of increased testing though. 

I was sent the following from my boss in Jordan.

 

Economist 13/6/2020
Middle East and Africa
Covid-19 in the Middle East
An unwanted guest returns
BEIRUT
Countries that thought they had beaten the pandemic are finding they have not
Across the Middle East months of closures are giving way to an almost carefree normal. Bars and restaurants in Tel Aviv are packed, with barely a nod to social distancing. Shisha cafés in Jordan’s capital, Amman, among the first businesses shut in March because of their perceived health risks, are full of patrons puffing away. Mask-wearing in Beirut has noticeably dropped since the government imposed a $33 fine for going barefaced. From Tehran to Tunis, many people seem to have declared the covid-19 pandemic finished.
But the pandemic is not finished with them. Several countries have seen, if not yet a second wave, at least a worrying resurgence of cases. Infections and deaths have jumped in Iran, where authorities thought they had tamed one of the world’s worst outbreaks. Schools have become a vector for infection in Israel. In Saudi Arabia, where the first wave never broke, doctors report an unexpected surge in hospitalisations and deaths. However, governments are reluctant to shut down again just as their economies are sputtering back to life. Stopping a second wave may be harder than it was dealing with the first.
Iran was one of the first countries battered by covid-19. New cases peaked in April at around 3,000 a day (see chart). The president, Hassan Rouhani, resisted a full lockdown, fearing the damage it would do to an economy reeling from years of American sanctions. Even his government’s disorderly response helped tame the outbreak, though, and by May cases had dropped enough for restrictions to be largely lifted.
New infections are now back to their April peak. Some of this is due to better testing: after a slow start, the health ministry says it has checked more than 1m people for the virus. But the death toll is also rising, which suggests that the epidemic is indeed getting worse. Average deaths this month, now around 70 a day, are 40% higher than their lows in May. The government blames the increase on large gatherings such as weddings. Doctors say intercity travel is helping the virus spread between provinces. Again, though, Mr Rouhani says Iran cannot afford to shut down; universities reopened earlier this month.
Israel took a different tack. It halted international travel in early March and confined citizens to their homes for weeks. By late May, with fewer than 20 new cases a day and almost no deaths, the government felt it could declare victory. Since children seem less affected by the virus, schools were among the first places to reopen. Some pupils went back as early as May 3rd, with caps on class size and other protective measures (see picture).
Classes were short-lived. Daily cases have grown six-fold from their nadir last month, in part because of infections linked to schools, including more than 100 from a single one in Jerusalem. At least 300 students and teachers have tested positive; thousands of people are in quarantine because of possible exposure. More than 100 schools have been shut, and even where they have not, some parents are keeping their children at home. The health ministry believes it can isolate the new outbreaks, but laboratories are overwhelmed; some patients wait days for test results.
Lockdowns were even more onerous in the Gulf, where places such as Dubai and Saudi Arabia imposed 24-hour curfews for weeks at a time. This did not stop the virus. It continued to spread among the migrant workers who are most of the population in most Gulf states. Still, death tolls have been low: migrants tend to be young, and wealthy governments pay for covid-19 treatment. Life began to resume after the Eid al-Fitr holiday last month.
Since then the epidemic in Saudi Arabia has worsened. On May 20th, just before it entered lockdown during Eid, the kingdom logged ten deaths. By June 9th that had almost quadrupled, to 37. Some hospitals are filling up; the number of patients in intensive-care units has more than tripled. Three doctors died recently, the first reported fatalities among medical staff. The Red Sea city of Jeddah is back under curfew. The authorities have opened a new 500-bed field hospital in its convention centre.
Like their rivals in Iran, the Saudis blame the increased spread on locals ignoring social-distancing rules. Yet they hope to avoid another nationwide lockdown and may even go ahead with next month’s haj, the annual pilgrimage to Mecca, albeit with fewer pilgrims than normal.
None of this was supposed to happen so quickly. Dubai wants to reopen its airport next month for tourists and business travellers. Lebanon, desperate for hard currency, plans to do the same. Jordan hopes to promote domestic tourism this summer. Concerns over public health drove most Arab countries into lockdown this spring. Few think they can afford to do it again.

[steviewevie]

28 minutes ago, Chef said:

I don't think you can read to much in to this, it is as expected with much of the economy completely closed for the whole month. You could even flip it and say maintaining 80% output in such dire and unusual circumstances is a pretty good result. 

The really important thing will be what happens next quarter to the end of September which will very much shape, and give an indication of, the future (assuming no second wave when no scenario would be off the table) with the current quarter already pretty much written off and a major contraction guaranteed. That said we should see some shoots of growth in the end of this quarter with the easing of lockdown restrictions. 

Seeing some of the predictions and forecast modelling at work, some were touting a worst case contraction this year of 25%. I'd say anywhere round the 10% mark would actually be pretty remarkable in the circumstances, as bad as it is. 

yes, so good news! Woohoo.

[Deaf Nobby Burton]

The downward trend continues:

 

[steviewevie]

After all the messaging about anyone can get it, if you go out you put others lives at risk as well as your own, stay home to protect the nhs...now messaging is...look, it's still out there, but numbers are dropping so risk has reduced, but it's just the oldies really and we kept them in their care homes...but it is still there so don't get too close to anyone, but do go out please, go to work, buy stuff, it's fine, just stay away from everyone else....etc

[Cream Soda]

55 minutes ago, Deaf Nobby Burton said:

The downward trend continues:

 

Wow, I hope that's accurate.  

[FestivalJamie]

37 minutes ago, Deaf Nobby Burton said:

The downward trend continues:

Let’s hope the trend continues. Our 1000 positive tests a day are still far too high, compared to countries like Germany where there are only 20-30 positive tests a day.

3 hours ago, steviewevie said:

 

Newnight was interesting last night. They were going on about how govt messaging worked well in scarying everyone into staying home, and now they need to get the economy going but people are still too scared.

Thing is, for me personally, I have no interest in going and spending my money in non essential shops. For several reasons 1. I can shop online if I really need anything 2. I don’t want to be lining up in horrendous queuelines down the street to get into the shops and 3. I kind of agree about the being “scared” thing. I’m not particularly scared, however I just don’t fancy going to a poorly ventilated indoor space where people aren’t wearing face masks if I don’t have to.

[Deaf Nobby Burton]

11 minutes ago, Cream Soda said:

Wow, I hope that's accurate.  

I think the ONS data is based on testing a random section of the public each week, so it’s accurate enough, or at the very least they test enough of the population so that it’s an accurate enough reflection. It’s why it says it excludes care homes and hospitals, because it’s based purely on the normal population and how much of the virus exists amongst us.