When will this shit end?

[Hannibal Schmitt]

23 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

Portugal being moved to amber?

Portugal has nearly the same amount of cases like the UK. It would have somehow been weird to remain them green and many others with lower cases stay amber (Italy, Germany, Poland, Finland, Austria, Slovakia, Hungary and so on). But yeah, the system has proved to be wrong as it has been the case with India (which remained much to long on the amber list). Why Malta is not green with nearly no cases at all, a great vaccine rollout and probably herd-immunity is beyond me (if compared to Gibraltar).

[steviewevie]

1 minute ago, zahidf said:

If its just 2 weeks to get more people jab, id reluctantly go along with that.

 

If its 2 weeks 'to assess the evidence' then absolutely not. Thats a excuse to delay stuff further

But if they delay they won't just say it's two weeks and that's that...or until x% have been vaccinated...there will always be a case where they will review the data. If not looking good by end of June 14th I think they should have reviews when a certain vaccination percentage thresholds have been passed, not on certain dates.

[DeanoL]

1 minute ago, zahidf said:

But by then everyone who wants one will have had 2 jabs. So this is a new thing, either the vaccines dont work, or the public health wonks are trying to use these new powers for Flu in mission creep

Not necessarily a new new thing, but hangover of hospitals being stretched to breaking point (I know of a few NHS workers who are planning on getting out when this is "done"), possible weirdness with flu season (like I say, I think it'll be milder than normal but maybe everyone being inside last winter has led to less immunity building up so it gets worse).

I don't think there will be any need for it at all, my point was just that extending the current lockdown doesn't make it more likely and if anything makes it less likely. We've been pretty consistent in only locking down if the NHS was at risk of being overwhelmed, and that won't change.

[steviewevie]

4 minutes ago, Copperface said:

I've seen a few restauranteurs etc interviewed recently and for the most part (obviously only the ones I've seen) they've said they would rather stay closed until it was certain they could reopen in a consistent and profitable way, as opposed to a cycle of open/close/open/close and various restrictions which is disruptive and causes them more problems in staff retention and ordering logistics. 

Businesses might be teetering on the edge but a clear path ahead for them is infinitely preferable to constant adapting to new restrictions and rules, harsh though it might sound and they might actually prefer to wait until the critical mass in vaccinations has been reached and confidence is higher..

 

 

 

who knows what's going on behind the scenes with these travel rules. I think they should just bin holidays abroad for this summer. We can all go on staycation to cornwall.

[Havors]

1 hour ago, Mellotr0n said:

Of course doing that would mean more undetected spread of the virus which would lead to more hospitalisations and therefore more need for lockdown measures - self defeating tactic, methinks.

Well not exactly.... if the vaccine works. Nothing would happen. So how much do you trust the vaccine? If the vaccine didn't work what would you do? Stay locked down forever?... as there is always going to be new variants until the end of time. 

We have come to a point now where there cannot be any more lockdowns. The cost vastly outweighs the benefits. 

[Copperface]

Just now, steviewevie said:

who knows what's going on behind the scenes with these travel rules. I think they should just bin holidays abroad for this summer. We can all go on staycation to cornwall.

Staycation in Bolton.......

[thewayiam]

4 minutes ago, Hannibal Schmitt said:

Portugal has nearly the same amount of cases like the UK. It would have somehow been weird to remain them green and many others with lower cases stay amber (Italy, Germany, Poland, Finland, Austria, Slovakia, Hungary and so on). But yeah, the system has proved to be wrong as it has been the case with India (which remained much to long on the amber list). Why Malta is not green with nearly no cases at all, a great vaccine rollout and probably herd-immunity is beyond me (if compared to Gibraltar).

Portugal has nowhere near the cases that England do.

 

[DeanoL]

1 minute ago, Havors said:

We have come to a point now where there cannot be any more lockdowns. The cost vastly outweighs the benefits. 

There will be lockdowns if it looks like the NHS will be overwhelmed. It's been that way from the start and it'll continue to be that way. Government doesn't have the stomach for letting people die on the streets and nor should it. The spectre of that remains the only reason we've ever gone into any sort of lockdown and it'll continue that way.

Go back and read the posts on this thread in August/September. People were saying exactly the same thing you are now. I said the same thing then - if it's lockdown or hospitals overwhelmed, we will lock down. And people posted exactly what you did. That another lockdown is impossible.

The difference now is that the vaccine can probably outpace the spread of the virus, give or take a few weeks. So we probably won't need another lockdown. But if it can't for whatever reason, we absolutely will have another one. Same as it's always been.

[stuartbert two hats]

5 minutes ago, Copperface said:

Staycation in Bolton.......

To be fair, it's the only place in Greater Manchester with falling cases.

[Hannibal Schmitt]

2 minutes ago, thewayiam said:

Portugal has nowhere near the cases that England do.

 

Sorry, to make it clearer - I mean the 7-day corona incidence:

Portugal 37,2

UK 36,7

Austria 33,3 (today 30)

Gibraltar 23,7

Malta 7,5

thats for 3th June 

[Filthy]

15 minutes ago, zahidf said:

If its just 2 weeks to get more people jab, id reluctantly go along with that.

 

If its 2 weeks 'to assess the evidence' then absolutely not. Thats a excuse to delay stuff further

Even if deaths and admissions were going up further?

[zahidf]

Just now, Filthy said:

Even if deaths and admissions were going up further?

depends on level, but then that means the vaccines dont work

[zahidf]

3 minutes ago, DeanoL said:

There will be lockdowns if it looks like the NHS will be overwhelmed. It's been that way from the start and it'll continue to be that way. Government doesn't have the stomach for letting people die on the streets and nor should it. The spectre of that remains the only reason we've ever gone into any sort of lockdown and it'll continue that way.

Go back and read the posts on this thread in August/September. People were saying exactly the same thing you are now. I said the same thing then - if it's lockdown or hospitals overwhelmed, we will lock down. And people posted exactly what you did. That another lockdown is impossible.

The difference now is that the vaccine can probably outpace the spread of the virus, give or take a few weeks. So we probably won't need another lockdown. But if it can't for whatever reason, we absolutely will have another one. Same as it's always been.

Its not the same as last year. Fully vaxed people will be a lot less likely to go along with a lockdown

[Filthy]

Just now, zahidf said:

depends on level, but then that means the vaccines dont work

Yes it might mean that they're less affective against the delta variant. Which is why it's important not to get hung up on dates

[steviewevie]

12 minutes ago, Havors said:

Well not exactly.... if the vaccine works. Nothing would happen. So how much do you trust the vaccine? If the vaccine didn't work what would you do? Stay locked down forever?... as there is always going to be new variants until the end of time. 

We have come to a point now where there cannot be any more lockdowns. The cost vastly outweighs the benefits. 

but then we'd see that anyway in the data on 14th June...the link between virus and hospitalisations would have been broken, and we'll be good.

[DeanoL]

3 minutes ago, zahidf said:

Its not the same as last year. Fully vaxed people will be a lot less likely to go along with a lockdown

Then the lockdown will be harsher, so that those who do follow the rules will reduce their contacts even more to make up for those breaking the rules.

Though I think you'll be surprised what compliance will be like when the truth of what 95% effective vaccines and no treatment if you get it looks like. Or y'know, no treatment in A&E if you have a car crash.

[efcfanwirral]

16 minutes ago, DeanoL said:

Not necessarily a new new thing, but hangover of hospitals being stretched to breaking point (I know of a few NHS workers who are planning on getting out when this is "done"), possible weirdness with flu season (like I say, I think it'll be milder than normal but maybe everyone being inside last winter has led to less immunity building up so it gets worse).

I don't think there will be any need for it at all, my point was just that extending the current lockdown doesn't make it more likely and if anything makes it less likely. We've been pretty consistent in only locking down if the NHS was at risk of being overwhelmed, and that won't change.

I saw a doctor saying flu season could be bad this year because they don't know which strain is in circulation so they're not sure which to put in the vaccine

[Ayrshire Chris]

Looking at todays decision on Portugal it’s becoming increasingly obvious that the government really don’t want folk travelling abroad on holiday this summer without actually banning them outright. The airlines will be under extreme pressure

[zahidf]

1 minute ago, DeanoL said:

Then the lockdown will be harsher, so that those who do follow the rules will reduce their contacts even more to make up for those breaking the rules.

Though I think you'll be surprised what compliance will be like when the truth of what 95% effective vaccines and no treatment if you get it looks like. Or y'know, no treatment in A&E if you have a car crash.

That isnt really what this govt will do. And people will probably riot if they were locked up for a year, got double jabbed and then were told to be locked up again. I wouldnt expect clapping on the doorsteps

[DeanoL]

2 minutes ago, zahidf said:

That isnt really what this govt will do. And people will probably riot if they were locked up for a year, got double jabbed and then were told to be locked up again. I wouldnt expect clapping on the doorsteps

So what, you think they would just tell people the hospitals were closed as they were full, and if they get ill, tough? And that wouldn't cause a riot?

I feel like you think there's a third way here when there's not. 

Edited June 3, 2021 by DeanoL

[st dan]

Speaking as a project manager in my place of work, this is why we tell stakeholders not to get hung up on dates when they were proposed, for the exact reason we see us all obsessing over June 21st. 
How could anybody foresee back in February what the situation would be in mid June - you can model and forecast for it yes, but something was always going to be added into the mix.
You should never carry on regardless just to hit a given date, and the issue here is the bullish way Johnson delivered his roadmap message, and went all in for that date. 

[JoeyT]

2 minutes ago, zahidf said:

That isnt really what this govt will do. And people will probably riot if they were locked up for a year, got double jabbed and then were told to be locked up again. I wouldnt expect clapping on the doorsteps

I think this is a very valid point especially as the age groups who are double jabbed gets younger & younger.

We all know how much of a hit the younger generation has had to take throughout this pandemic, I honestly can't see the goodwill cup having much left in it for much longer.

[zahidf]

2 minutes ago, DeanoL said:

So what, you think they would just tell people the hospitals were closed as they were full, and if they get ill, tough? And that wouldn't cause a riot?

I feel like you think there's a third way here when there's not. 

Close the pubs, we have a bad flu strain....

I dont really buy them doing that. Maybe masks over the autumn to mitigate spread in public transport settings and more WFH. But no closed businesses. 

[DeanoL]

2 minutes ago, st dan said:

Speaking as a project manager in my place of work, this is why we tell stakeholders not to get hung up on dates when they were proposed, for the exact reason we see us all obsessing over June 21st. 
How could anybody foresee back in February what the situation would be in mid June - you can model and forecast for it yes, but something was always going to be added into the mix.
You should never carry on regardless just to hit a given date, and the issue here is the bullish way Johnson delivered his roadmap message, and went all in for that date. 

I don't think it's really Johnson's fault (that's the first and last time I've ever said that). The roadmap was pretty clear that these were the earliest possible dates, it said that multiple times. The press took it and reported those dates as if they were definitive - and they of course have their own agenda. 

[zahidf]

1 minute ago, JoeyT said:

I think this is a very valid point especially as the age groups who are double jabbed gets younger & younger.

We all know how much of a hit the younger generation has had to take throughout this pandemic, I honestly can't see the goodwill cup having much left in it for much longer.

yup. I posted earlier the poll about people expecting things being reopened June 21st fully. Good luck getting public to go along with anything this winter to the same degree as before.