When will this shit end?

[northernringo]

25 minutes ago, st dan said:

That’s fair, but then I guess if the rates keep dropping and stay very low, then the risks of either Covid or having the vaccine outweigh not having the vaccine at all won’t it? Which is clearly not what they want to suggesting. 

Its a good question but I think we'd need to pretty much eradicate it to get to that level, and then even at that the vaccines play an important role in regards to spreading disease. Those in charge would probably take that into consideration to protect those who have not or cannot take the vaccine.

So if my risk from the vaccine is say 0.001% chance of serious illness and my covid risk (taking into consideration the chances of catching it) is 0.0005%, the decision makers might still want me to take the vaccine as me being vaccinated will reduce the risk of Covid for someone 60 who didn't/couldn't take the vaccine (or who it may not have worked on) as it will lower their chances of catching it/me spreading it.

[Ozanne]

Do we think this will impact the 21st June roadmap date?

[Ryan1984]

My sister’s jab was because the local centre was doing under 30s. Assuming opening up to under 40s will mean I also get one sooner than expected.

[JoeyT]

26 minutes ago, Ozanne said:

Do we think this will impact the 21st June roadmap date?

I don't think so.

Providing the surge testing / extra contact tracing can contain the outbreaks which given case numbers generally are so low should be possible, I'm fairly upbeat about it not having an impact on the roadmap.

Early indications are that this isn't vaccine evasive so there certainly isn't any reason currently to be up in arms so to speak.

Edit: sorry, were you referencing the vaccine rollout or the indian variant? In hindsight probably the former so ignore what I said 😂

Edited May 7, 2021 by JoeyT

[st dan]

Just read that Japan have 24m doses of Pfizer vaccines sat in storage in freezers because the take up there is so low (only 2.2%). Just staggering that certain countries can sit on that many doses that seemingly nobody wants, whilst the rest of the world would use these up almost instantly. 

[Ozanne]

31 minutes ago, JoeyT said:

I don't think so.

Providing the surge testing / extra contact tracing can contain the outbreaks which given case numbers generally are so low should be possible, I'm fairly upbeat about it not having an impact on the roadmap.

Early indications are that this isn't vaccine evasive so there certainly isn't any reason currently to be up in arms so to speak.

Edit: sorry, were you referencing the vaccine rollout or the indian variant? In hindsight probably the former so ignore what I said 😂

Sorry, I should have said, I meant the vaccine update for under 40s. 

[zahidf]

1 minute ago, Ozanne said:

Sorry, I should have said, I meant the vaccine update for under 40s. 

We have enough Moderan and Pfizer apparently for them

[DeanoL]

2 hours ago, st dan said:

I’m pleased to hear this - does make me slightly concerned as to what we hear from the experts. JVT was adamant the risks were only for the under 30s and he even had graphs and charts to show it. 

They were very broad stats though. The charts showed that the chances of getting seriously ill without vaccine for the 31-40 group were a little bit higher than that of getting seriously ill from taking the vaccine. But they were close enough to sort of make that broad-brush thinking not relelvant.

Because I'm a 30-something that is working from home, not socialising with people until I'm jabbed, no kids at school, etc. My chance of getting COVID is far lower than someone 30-something but working in a supermarket with three kids. I'm almost certain given my lifestyle, it's probably better for me to go for a different vaccine, even if it means waiting a little longer. Whereas if I was going into the office every day I'd jump at AZ as soon as I had the option. But it's too complicated to model and plan a roll out that way - you just have to give people the info and let them choose.

1 hour ago, st dan said:

That’s fair, but then I guess if the rates keep dropping and stay very low, then the risks of either Covid or having the vaccine outweigh not having the vaccine at all won’t it? Which is clearly not what they want to suggesting. 

The risk of getting ill from COVID on those charts is time bound though. It's the risk of getting it over X months or something (don't remember it exactly). While the rates may keep dropping, time will keep going on, and unless the vaccines are so good that we actually eliminate it, your cumulative chance over time of getting COVID will tend upwards - meanwhile you are also getting older, so your risk is actually going up. So eventually you'll want to take it.

[zahidf]

 

[Mimo]

Very sensible and balanced thread about the Indian variant, put my mind at ease for the weekend

 

[zahidf]

 

[Mellotr0n]

15 minutes ago, Mimo said:

Very sensible and balanced thread about the Indian variant, put my mind at ease for the weekend

 

He's been superb throughout - calm, concise, considered, sticks to the data.

Very refreshing...

[stuartbert two hats]

Apparently there's a pop-up walk-in centre a few minutes away from me, and it's taking under 40s - not sure exactly which ages.

[august1]

11 minutes ago, stuartbert two hats said:

Apparently there's a pop-up walk-in centre a few minutes away from me, and it's taking under 40s - not sure exactly which ages.

Are case rates high in your area? If so I doubt they care and just want to jab.

[jparx]

24 minutes ago, stuartbert two hats said:

Apparently there's a pop-up walk-in centre a few minutes away from me, and it's taking under 40s - not sure exactly which ages.

My cousin (18) just got hers in Chesterfield. She messaged yesterday saying the Winding Wheel venue was accepting bookings for under 40s and I blew it off as gossip, but she’s literally just had it. Not sure what the deal is...seems a bit odd.

[zahidf]

 

[Crazyfool01]

Bit of a plateaux in the case numbers now … don’t seem to be dropping … have we hit a threshold or will they go down more ? 

[zahidf]

 

[zahidf]

4 minutes ago, crazyfool1 said:

Bit of a plateaux in the case numbers now … don’t seem to be dropping … have we hit a threshold or will they go down more ? 

Still going down week by week.  Just slowly!

[JoeyT]

8 minutes ago, crazyfool1 said:

Bit of a plateaux in the case numbers now … don’t seem to be dropping … have we hit a threshold or will they go down more ? 

 

[Ozanne]

Vaccination update:

[st dan]

A week into May now and we’re yet to really see first doses increase to previous levels - still supply issues? Can’t remember if Zahawi said that it would increase at the end of April or not?

[Tartan_Glasto]

Do we know how quick the potential blood clots have been happening?

As a 36 year old who's had the AZ, just curious...

Edited May 7, 2021 by Tartan_Glasto
.

[SamJ]

4 minutes ago, Tartan_Glasto said:

Do we know how quick the potential blood clots have been happening?

As a 36 year old who's had the AZ, just curious...

I was worried about this.  BBC at the time said most have occurred in the first 2 weeks after I think.

And congrats on the jab!

[northernringo]

6 minutes ago, Tartan_Glasto said:

Do we know how quick the potential blood clots have been happening?

As a 36 year old who's had the AZ, just curious...

I think the general chat has been within the first two weeks

EDIT: Beaten to it!

Edited May 7, 2021 by northernringo