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When will this shit end?


Chrisp1986

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1 minute ago, fraybentos1 said:

What is all this about people in their 20s skipping the vaccine? Yes, uptake will probs be a wee bit lower but we haven't even been offered it yet ffs. Uptake will be high, over 80% in that age group I imagine. 

Yeah definitely agree, it will still be high in that group I would've thought

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Also re herd immunity I defo think it is possible. Infact I think we are witnessing it in Israel right now.

It won't be some big bang moment and boom we have hit the threshold. Just as we continue to ease restrictions and cases stay low then we will know we are getting there. Won't be too long i imagine.

Am I right in thinking that these antibody studies don't show everyone who is immune cause you can be immune and no longer have antibodies, e.g still having a strong T cell response. 

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6 minutes ago, fraybentos1 said:

What is all this about people in their 20s skipping the vaccine? Yes, uptake will probs be a wee bit lower but we haven't even been offered it yet ffs. Uptake will be high, over 80% in that age group I imagine. 

Tbh even a 50% take up would be game changing in stopping onward transmission into vunerable groups in the autumn.

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Just now, Barry Fish said:

https://www.statista.com/statistics/281174/uk-population-by-age/

0 to 24 = 19.77 million = 30% of the population 

So you would need 100% take up in all over age brackets for that to be true.

 

 

But people 18-24 (or is it 16+ I'm not sure) can get the vaccine soon enough? Why are you grouping them with kids who cannot?

Tbh, by autumn i think over 12s will probs be getting it too.

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Just now, Barry Fish said:

I don't get how they can say they are facing a "difficult problem" and then say the second line...

At the very least give people a choice.  My wife is 39 year old secondary school teacher and would is desperate to get ANY vaccine while people stroke their chins over this.  She faced a higher risk when she was on the pill FFS.

exactly. Its not a difficult decision if delaying it will lead to more deaths and hospitlisations...

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5 minutes ago, JoeyT said:

Hmmm

 

"Many more deaths". The over 40s will be done, the numbers in total who've died under 40, while sad, is low. Plus many of those will have been in the vulnerable group. What am I missing here? There's a lot of this "much more death" but as that didn't happen previously in the unvaccinated age group why would it happen now? Especially as any "delay" likely still keeps it all being done in summer when last year prevalence was low anyway

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4 hours ago, xxialac said:

When indoor concerts open up in the UK requiring maskwearing, I predict a lot of people will ignore the rule and take them off because of the kind of attitudes we see on here. This will in turn cause problems. And this wouldn't have happened if maskwearing was more deeply ingrained in society through (temporary) mandatory outdoor use.

We shall see....

That's part of the reason they are running these trial events. People have been questioning how good the data on virus transmission and such can be from these trial events, especially with the numbers and timescales involved. And they're right. I'm pretty sure a huge part of the trials is to see what compliance will actually be like with various measures at various events. If people refuse to wear masks at trials of indoor gigs, then we are not allowed indoor gigs.

1 hour ago, SwedgeAntilles said:

Obviously great news that over 30s are eligible for vaccines but can't help feel this is a logistical misstep. 

I dunno - at this point, where deaths are low enough, the economy becomes an issue again. We are starting to open up and plenty of people are happy to go out to pubs etc. without being vaccinated. Economically, it's less important to vaccinate these people than it is people that are waiting for the jab before they do anything. 

And if you open up to more people, the spots will probably get booked by those who are paying the most attention, or willing to travel furthest, etc. These people will generally be the people that have been more cautious and not already going out.Economically it definitely makes more sense to give 20 and 30-somethings who won't go out until they get vaccinated a vaccine ahead of 40-somethings that don't really give a crap and think COVID won't hurt them and they can't catch it anyway. Morally it's more dubious!

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6 minutes ago, efcfanwirral said:

"Many more deaths". The over 40s will be done, the numbers in total who've died under 40, while sad, is low. Plus many of those will have been in the vulnerable group. What am I missing here? There's a lot of this "much more death" but as that didn't happen previously in the unvaccinated age group why would it happen now? Especially as any "delay" likely still keeps it all being done in summer when last year prevalence was low anyway

many more deaths in comparision to not jabbing them. So it could mean not a LOT more...

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7 minutes ago, Barry Fish said:

I don't get how they can say they are facing a "difficult problem" and then say the second line...

At the very least give people a choice.

Yeah - it doesn't seem that difficult to me.

Offer jabs to everyone as soon as possible. The risks, albeit very low, are pretty well known so people can take their own decisions. Just give everyone 30-40 a choice of having AZ now, or waiting ~3 months and instead getting Pfizer/Moderna/Novavax.

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1 hour ago, JoeyT said:

I don't know what to believe on herd immunity.

Some scientists are saying it'll come soon whilst there are articles such as the one you've linked which say it's probably impossible...

Is anyone else feeling a bit confused by the mixed messaging on this or is it only me? 

I'm equally baffled. I know what I think is the case but that means it's basically impossible.

59 minutes ago, Fuzzy Afro said:

68.3% antibodies would be enough to produce herd immunity under the original R0 of 3.0. Unfortunately, the new variant is closer to 4. The good news is that we only need to get to 75% and we were at 68.3% a few weeks ago. The vaccines are getting us closer and closer.

I want to try to follow this through, bear with me if I'm getting it wrong.

R is 4 in this variant, so uncontrolled the average person will pass it on to 4 other people. So to reduce R below 1 (at which point, mathematically the virus should eventually die out), we need to cut transmission by 75% - ie. to 25% of what it naturally is, so the 4 is reduced to a 1. 

So if you're using a sterilizing vaccine - ie. one that completely kills off the virus, prevent any onward transmission, then if you vaccinated 75% of the population, you'd achieve this.

Example: 100 people, would normally spread the virus to 400 people (R=4).

If you vaccinated 75% of them, 75 of them spread the virus to 0 people, but the 25 unvaccinated people spread it to 4 people each, so again, 100 people - R=1. Vaccinated one more person and R starts to go under 1.

But the problem is that this isn't a sterilizing vaccine. It only reduces transmission by somewhere between 30 and 70%.

And that can't be good enough? Even if it's 70%, and we vaccinated 100% of the population, that's a flat 70% reduction in transmission across the population. But if the natural R is 4, that means it gets cut down to 1.2. Which isn't enough?

Except the vaccine then also prevents you from catching it, at least in some cases? So if that's 70% effective then 70% of the 1.2 people won't be eligible so that reduced R to 0.36 and then that could work.

And I guess the confusion is we don't know how these figures interact. So I don't even know what "reduce transmission" means in this context. Like, if the vaccine is 70% effective, it means I have a 30% chance of catching it, and then a 30% chance of passing it on. Or are they overall figures?

And I think some people are just using "herd immunity" to mean something different to what it actually does too. 

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55 minutes ago, Leyrulion said:

Tbh at this stage she should be facing a disciplinary for knowingly coming into a pharmacist job with symptoms.

I agree. I’d go as far as dismissal. When you can get free tests sent to your house that take 20 minutes to do, it’s just a selfish thing to do.

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3 minutes ago, DeanoL said:

 

I'm equally baffled. I know what I think is the case but that means it's basically impossible.

I want to try to follow this through, bear with me if I'm getting it wrong.

R is 4 in this variant, so uncontrolled the average person will pass it on to 4 other people. So to reduce R below 1 (at which point, mathematically the virus should eventually die out), we need to cut transmission by 75% - ie. to 25% of what it naturally is, so the 4 is reduced to a 1. 

So if you're using a sterilizing vaccine - ie. one that completely kills off the virus, prevent any onward transmission, then if you vaccinated 75% of the population, you'd achieve this.

Example: 100 people, would normally spread the virus to 400 people (R=4).

If you vaccinated 75% of them, 75 of them spread the virus to 0 people, but the 25 unvaccinated people spread it to 4 people each, so again, 100 people - R=1. Vaccinated one more person and R starts to go under 1.

But the problem is that this isn't a sterilizing vaccine. It only reduces transmission by somewhere between 30 and 70%.

And that can't be good enough? Even if it's 70%, and we vaccinated 100% of the population, that's a flat 70% reduction in transmission across the population. But if the natural R is 4, that means it gets cut down to 1.2. Which isn't enough?

Except the vaccine then also prevents you from catching it, at least in some cases? So if that's 70% effective then 70% of the 1.2 people won't be eligible so that reduced R to 0.36 and then that could work.

And I guess the confusion is we don't know how these figures interact. So I don't even know what "reduce transmission" means in this context. Like, if the vaccine is 70% effective, it means I have a 30% chance of catching it, and then a 30% chance of passing it on. Or are they overall figures?

And I think some people are just using "herd immunity" to mean something different to what it actually does too. 

The figures we have so far from PHE is just for 1 dose. I think itd be fair to increase the percentages for 2 doses. 

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11 minutes ago, DeanoL said:

R is 4 in this variant, so uncontrolled the average person will pass it on to 4 other people.

Surely this assumption is based on an 100% susceptible population, which hasn't been the case since around December 2019?

Apologies if I have read/understood your workings incorrectly.

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1 minute ago, Barry Fish said:

Results demonstrated vaccine efficacy of 76% (CI: 59% to 86%) after a first dose, with protection maintained to the second dose. With an inter-dose interval of 12 weeks or more, vaccine efficacy increased to 82% (CI: 63%, 92%)

So not a massive jump on the averages.  Most the work is done by the first dose.

that's different to vaccine onward infection though. For that we only the first dose

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22 minutes ago, Barry Fish said:

Very good post...  and all pretty much spot on from my understanding.

We don't actually need herd immunity I would suggest to get back to normal and I think you are right in saying people seem to not understand what it actually is and means.

If the virus ends up with a R rate of 1.2 in a fully vaccinated population then we aren't going to see the NHS overwhelmed and massive number passing away.  I don't think we need the holly grail of herd immunity to live with this thing.

Agreed - I'm leaning towards actual herd immunity being impossible, and various (non-scientists) in the media using "herd immunity" to mean "the point at which enough people are vaccinated that we can drop all restrictions without needing to worry" rather than "the point at which the virus will naturally die out".

11 minutes ago, Barry Fish said:

Stealing this from another forum I am on...  Hurts my head to think about it but the guy who posts it knows his shit 🙂   but it demonstrates why todays study is so important and big news


- One dose plus three weeks leads to a reduction in infections by 60-65%
- Breakthrough infections are 38-49% less likely to transmit.

A few months ago, I posted a summary by immunologist Andrew Croxford where he explained about the steps of transmission reduction.

EsFhTZxXYAABx-r?format=jpg&name=small

Mr Pink doesn’t get infected. Mr Green does, but has far lesser symptoms and a reduced chance of transmission. Mr Blue is unvaccinated and is the reference.

Well, he’s now not only proven to be true in the fact that “Mr Greens” are demonstrated to be less likely to transmit. And now we can get a bit of an estimate on the total transmission reduction.

If 60-65% of vaccinees become “Mr Pinks”, then 35-40% are “Mr Greens”.
Mr Pinks have a 100% reduction in transmission
Mr Greens have a 38-49% reduction.

Therefore total demonstrated reduction is 75%-83%

[chance of onwards transmission = (1-(Px1.0) + (Gx[0.51 to 0.62])]

That's fascinating. Are there actual Mr Pinks and Mr Greens do you know? I've never quite understood that. When they say the virus is 70% effective at stopping you getting COVID, do they mean whenever I would have got COVID previously, I'm basically rolling a ten sided die and if I get 1-7 I am safe, 8-10 I catch it. Or does it literally mean like in here, where 70% of people are totally immune to it, even if they went to an orgy with 9 people who all tested positive, while 30% of people will always catch it like before (but symptoms are reduced). 

And if it's the latter, can we identify if someone is pink or green? And should we? It seems like if we're talking vaccine passports and such it would make sense. 

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46 minutes ago, Barry Fish said:

Its not an assumption its a fact.  The R rate is 4. That won't change any time soon.

And I think you have misunderstood the post.  You have to start with the natural R rate of the virus and work from that. 

Not sure that's how it works.  From wikipedia: 

"R_{0} is not a biological constant for a pathogen as it is also affected by other factors such as environmental conditions and the behaviour of the infected population. R_{0} values are usually estimated from mathematical models, and the estimated values are dependent on the model used and values of other parameters. Thus values given in the literature only make sense in the given context and it is recommended not to use obsolete values or compare values based on different models.[25] R_{0}} does not by itself give an estimate of how fast an infection spreads in the population."

Edited by ErnestWorthing
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20 minutes ago, DeanoL said:

Agreed - I'm leaning towards actual herd immunity being impossible, and various (non-scientists) in the media using "herd immunity" to mean "the point at which enough people are vaccinated that we can drop all restrictions without needing to worry" rather than "the point at which the virus will naturally die out".

I've always taken herd immunity to mean a limit to how quickly/far the virus will spread, rather than meaning no-one will get it and it will die out, not sure if that's the general understanding

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29 minutes ago, Barry Fish said:

The accepted natural R rate for the Kent variant of Covid is 4.  If you look at Kent outdoors with everyone keeping two meters then its probably going to drop to 0 but it doesn't stop the natural accepted rate being 4 in normal average settings with people acting normally.

There isn't a natural R rate though, that's the thing.  The R rate already takes factors into consideration, it's a maths solution not a biological constant.  The R rate for the Kent variant was 4 in England, with our population and our million other variables.

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3 minutes ago, Barry Fish said:

You are trying to act smart while just confirming the point being made and the reason why Dean used 4 as the R Rate to work backwards for.

Top trolling though.

I'm not trying to act smart I'm trying to educate you on really basic principles.  The R number is variables, that's literally the whole thing, it's a bunch of variables and some backward calculations.  You can't find an R rate in DNA. If we change variables the whole model changes, you can't re-calculate an R number using two points of information and it's laughable that you're attempting to do so.

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