When will this shit end?

[xxialac]

Just now, crazyfool1 said:

Test and trace reset ?!! 
 

https://apple.news/Att3AYH0LSbmbJ5-6OmCC8A

Maybe if they stopped writing consulting guff about "deliverables being crystallised" and actually focused on the practicalities of what it needed to work, it wouldn't be such a disaster.

[priest17]

2 minutes ago, crazyfool1 said:

Test and trace reset ?!! 
 

https://apple.news/Att3AYH0LSbmbJ5-6OmCC8A

good to know they've got the basics like their ABBCs down

[Crazyfool01]

2 minutes ago, xxialac said:

Maybe if they stopped writing consulting guff about "deliverables being crystallised" and actually focused on the practicalities of what it needed to work, it wouldn't be such a disaster.

Along with sacking Dido Harding .... and paying people sensible amounts to isolate !!

[parsonjack]

1 hour ago, crazyfool1 said:

aw crap  

But but but.....tests went up massively yesterdayby like 70k or so, so measured against today's positive cases means overall % Positivity is down again today.

Ooh...and just shouting out @stevieweviefor my 1000th upvote.  Cheers bud 👍

Edited November 19, 2020 by parsonjack

[xxialac]

3 minutes ago, priest17 said:

good to know they've got the basics like their ABBCs down

Great spot! Jesus...

And the image of a dart hitting a bullseye. What creative genius came up with that one as a metaphor for success.

[Crazyfool01]

Just now, parsonjack said:

But but but.....tests went up massively yesterdayby like 70k or so, so measured against today's positive cases means overall % Positivity is down again today.

Always there to steer me  back on course  congrats on the 1000 .... I was beaten to it as id run out  

[parsonjack]

Just now, crazyfool1 said:

Always there to steer me  back on course  congrats on the 1000 .... I was beaten to it as id run out  

You're welcome...and thanks 🙂

[parsonjack]

The good news just keeps on coming.....

BBC News - Inquiry 'found Priti Patel broke behaviour rules'
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-55007122

[Ozanne]

1 minute ago, crazyfool1 said:

Always there to steer me  back on course  congrats on the 1000 .... I was beaten to it as id run out  

I know it’s hard mate but try not to isolate one particular days figures. If they are higher than you thought try not to worry overly and equally if they appear low then bear in mind that it’s probably outrider and they could go up again the next day. It is tough but try not to panic over them, look at the trends and where they are heading. Sorry if this is preachy, I don’t mean it to be!

[Crazyfool01]

1 minute ago, Ozanne said:

I know it’s hard mate but try not to isolate one particular days figures. If they are higher than you thought try not to worry overly and equally if they appear low then bear in mind that it’s probably outrider and they could go up again the next day. It is tough but try not to panic over them, look at the trends and where they are heading. Sorry if this is preachy, I don’t mean it to be!

All good  ive been on the corona coaster for long enough  thanks though 

[parsonjack]

1 minute ago, Ozanne said:

I know it’s hard mate but try not to isolate one particular days figures. If they are higher than you thought try not to worry overly and equally if they appear low then bear in mind that it’s probably outrider and they could go up again the next day. It is tough but try not to panic over them, look at the trends and where they are heading. Sorry if this is preachy, I don’t mean it to be!

....and for the first time in many weeks the weekly case trend is down.  Are we turning a corner here?

 

[Ozanne]

Just now, parsonjack said:

....and for the first time in many weeks the weekly case trend is down.  Are we turning a corner here?

 

Potentially but the average is skewed by the 30k plus we saw last Thursday, so if anything I’d say we are kind of staying put. If you take out that 30k then for cases in England (20,291) it’s not much down from 21,237 two weeks ago, even if tests are up a bit lately. We aren’t seeing any large consistent rises but is this quick enough for the end of lockdown in 2 weeks? I’m not so sure. 

[Crazyfool01]

3 minutes ago, Ozanne said:

Potentially but the average is skewed by the 30k plus we saw last Thursday, so if anything I’d say we are kind of staying put. If you take out that 30k then for cases in England (20,291) it’s not much down from 21,237 two weeks ago, even if tests are up a bit lately. We aren’t seeing any large consistent rises but is this quick enough for the end of lockdown in 2 weeks? I’m not so sure. 

if we move into tiers it might be .... it just won't be advertised as a national lockdown ....

[parsonjack]

3 minutes ago, Ozanne said:

Potentially but the average is skewed by the 30k plus we saw last Thursday, so if anything I’d say we are kind of staying put. If you take out that 30k then for cases in England (20,291) it’s not much down from 21,237 two weeks ago, even if tests are up a bit lately. We aren’t seeing any large consistent rises but is this quick enough for the end of lockdown in 2 weeks? I’m not so sure. 

Good points....and yes, I'm far from certain we have enough evidence yet to end it in 13 days.

[steviewevie]

31 minutes ago, xxialac said:

When did we do it before? (genuine question, not being snarky)

flu vaccines every year, that's what I mean...I know not same scale...

[steviewevie]

17 minutes ago, parsonjack said:

....and for the first time in many weeks the weekly case trend is down.  Are we turning a corner here?

 

you would hope so...if this lockdown isn't working what next? Close schools etc?

[Crazyfool01]

1 minute ago, steviewevie said:

you would hope so...if this lockdown isn't working what next? Close schools etc?

I would think a week earlier breakup at Christmas would be quite a sensible idea ... not a lot of missed work and a benefit of not mixing for an extra week before visits to Grandparents .... for some anyway 

[efcfanwirral]

19 minutes ago, Ozanne said:

Potentially but the average is skewed by the 30k plus we saw last Thursday, so if anything I’d say we are kind of staying put. If you take out that 30k then for cases in England (20,291) it’s not much down from 21,237 two weeks ago, even if tests are up a bit lately. We aren’t seeing any large consistent rises but is this quick enough for the end of lockdown in 2 weeks? I’m not so sure. 

Not even remotely quick enough. But we knew this going into it. Apparently our prime minister didn't and will rely fully on semantics come next week's parliamentary debates

4 minutes ago, crazyfool1 said:

I would think a week earlier breakup at Christmas would be quite a sensible idea ... not a lot of missed work and a benefit of not mixing for an extra week before visits to Grandparents .... for some anyway 

To be honest it probably needs to be longer with the kids to parents transmission cycle but this will take some of the risk away 

[fraybentos1]

1 hour ago, duke88 said:

Yes, but that's a two-dose one - so that leaves 5 million people for the whole of the UK by the end of the year, Scotland aren't going to get 20% of that allocation, when they make up 8% of the UK population

As i said, there is the Oxford one coming too which we have even more of..

[incident]

19 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

flu vaccines every year, that's what I mean...I know not same scale...

It's not the same scale, but it's certainly comparable. Given the resources being allocated, I suspect the bottleneck is likely to be vaccine supply rather than the ability to deliver it.

So - in a typical year (ie not this year) - approximately 15 million people would receive the flu vaccine over the space of about 8 weeks in October and November. This happens without causing significant strain on services, and without anywhere near the level of priority, attention, and funding that a COVID vaccine rollout is being given. While I've not seen any numbers for this year, the government said they wanted to increase that to 30m this year. I doubt they'll actually hit that, but from what I've heard the main problems have been about supply rather than capacity to carry it out and the number should still be way up on last year.

On that basis, it's reasonable to assume that if a vaccine is available (and can be manufactured in sufficient quantities) that can use the same infrastructure / people (which the Oxford one can), then it should be possible able to deliver well over 30 million shots by about Easter without extra resource. Add in extra resources (as provided for by the bill passed a couple months back that allows more people including medical students to deliver the shot) then it's not unrealistic to deliver a shot to every adult in the country by Easter.

That's ignoring and completely separate to the dedicated vaccination centres that every PCT has been asked to set up by the start of December, and that are seemingly designed for a rollout of the Pfizer vaccine - once those are in place they should create capacity for at minimum a million or so doses a week and if things work out a lot more than that - though obviously that's a lot more untested.

I increasingly get the impression that we're going to end up with 2 independent vaccination programmes running in parallel - the Oxford one using the same people and places that provided the flu vaccine over the past few weeks, and the Pfizer one using the dedicated centres. I wouldn't be surprised if a designation is made along the lines of Oxford goes to age range X, Pfizer to age range Y - with the effect that a lot of people not on the priority list get offered a shot sooner than some on the priority list do (as they're waiting on the other vaccine).

[parsonjack]

Finding great positivity from seeing this thread gradually moving from faint hopes for a vaccine, to vaccine development, vaccine availability and now to vaccine delivery.

We're getting there people 👍

[Crazyfool01]

When the vaccines start to get the numbers down surely that enables track and trace to be more effective ..... so we can push the levels right back in the March -June 24th period .... 

[guypjfreak]

This might be the highest numbered thread for a long time... 

As per vaccines we now have 3 nearly ready to go.. Might take time but light at the end of the tunnel and all that.. Gotta hope that the Oxford one comes through as that's really the best of the lot.. 

[stuartbert two hats]

1 hour ago, duke88 said:

Yes, but that's a two-dose one - so that leaves 5 million people for the whole of the UK by the end of the year, Scotland aren't going to get 20% of that allocation, when they make up 8% of the UK population

It must be on the assumption that Oxford/AZ is approved in the next 2-3 weeks. We have 100m of that on order and they started manufacturing is months ago. I just read a story from July saying they were starting production, aiming to be able to start rollout in autumn. I've not been able to find any figures, but it wouldn't surprise me if we had 20m doses already in the UK.

[stuartbert two hats]

1 hour ago, Ozanne said:

I know it’s hard mate but try not to isolate one particular days figures. If they are higher than you thought try not to worry overly and equally if they appear low then bear in mind that it’s probably outrider and they could go up again the next day. It is tough but try not to panic over them, look at the trends and where they are heading. Sorry if this is preachy, I don’t mean it to be!

Preach it brother! I've been looking at the Manchester numbers and getting concerned when the numbers don't drop every day, even though every single day shows a week on week decrease. The week on week number is the one to look at unless you're really straining to find a recent change in the trends.