When will this shit end?

[xxialac]

37 minutes ago, incident said:

It's not the same scale, but it's certainly comparable. Given the resources being allocated, I suspect the bottleneck is likely to be vaccine supply rather than the ability to deliver it.

So - in a typical year (ie not this year) - approximately 15 million people would receive the flu vaccine over the space of about 8 weeks in October and November. This happens without causing significant strain on services, and without anywhere near the level of priority, attention, and funding that a COVID vaccine rollout is being given. While I've not seen any numbers for this year, the government said they wanted to increase that to 30m this year. I doubt they'll actually hit that, but from what I've heard the main problems have been about supply rather than capacity to carry it out and the number should still be way up on last year.

On that basis, it's reasonable to assume that if a vaccine is available (and can be manufactured in sufficient quantities) that can use the same infrastructure / people (which the Oxford one can), then it should be possible able to deliver well over 30 million shots by about Easter without extra resource. Add in extra resources (as provided for by the bill passed a couple months back that allows more people including medical students to deliver the shot) then it's not unrealistic to deliver a shot to every adult in the country by Easter.

That's ignoring and completely separate to the dedicated vaccination centres that every PCT has been asked to set up by the start of December, and that are seemingly designed for a rollout of the Pfizer vaccine - once those are in place they should create capacity for at minimum a million or so doses a week and if things work out a lot more than that - though obviously that's a lot more untested.

I increasingly get the impression that we're going to end up with 2 independent vaccination programmes running in parallel - the Oxford one using the same people and places that provided the flu vaccine over the past few weeks, and the Pfizer one using the dedicated centres. I wouldn't be surprised if a designation is made along the lines of Oxford goes to age range X, Pfizer to age range Y - with the effect that a lot of people not on the priority list get offered a shot sooner than some on the priority list do (as they're waiting on the other vaccine).

30 million shots = 15 million people.

You need 2 jabs.

And there is no way in hell they will vaccinate everyone by Easter or remotely like it...there'll be problems.

[Havors]

34 minutes ago, incident said:

It's not the same scale, but it's certainly comparable. Given the resources being allocated, I suspect the bottleneck is likely to be vaccine supply rather than the ability to deliver it.

So - in a typical year (ie not this year) - approximately 15 million people would receive the flu vaccine over the space of about 8 weeks in October and November. This happens without causing significant strain on services, and without anywhere near the level of priority, attention, and funding that a COVID vaccine rollout is being given. While I've not seen any numbers for this year, the government said they wanted to increase that to 30m this year. I doubt they'll actually hit that, but from what I've heard the main problems have been about supply rather than capacity to carry it out and the number should still be way up on last year.

On that basis, it's reasonable to assume that if a vaccine is available (and can be manufactured in sufficient quantities) that can use the same infrastructure / people (which the Oxford one can), then it should be possible able to deliver well over 30 million shots by about Easter without extra resource. Add in extra resources (as provided for by the bill passed a couple months back that allows more people including medical students to deliver the shot) then it's not unrealistic to deliver a shot to every adult in the country by Easter.

That's ignoring and completely separate to the dedicated vaccination centres that every PCT has been asked to set up by the start of December, and that are seemingly designed for a rollout of the Pfizer vaccine - once those are in place they should create capacity for at minimum a million or so doses a week and if things work out a lot more than that - though obviously that's a lot more untested.

I increasingly get the impression that we're going to end up with 2 independent vaccination programmes running in parallel - the Oxford one using the same people and places that provided the flu vaccine over the past few weeks, and the Pfizer one using the dedicated centres. I wouldn't be surprised if a designation is made along the lines of Oxford goes to age range X, Pfizer to age range Y - with the effect that a lot of people not on the priority list get offered a shot sooner than some on the priority list do (as they're waiting on the other vaccine).

I may have mentioned it before but I know through a friend that portacabin have a massive contract with the government to set up 300 sites by January. He believes these to be used as vaccination set ups as there is refrigeration involved. 

As you say we will have vaccinations via the normal routes but also with these sites set up others there will be a push to vaccinate a LOT of people quickly... Quicker the better and we can be more than optimistic for festivals in the summer. 

[incident]

1 minute ago, xxialac said:

30 million shots = 15 million people.

You need 2 jabs.

And there is no way in hell they will vaccinate everyone by Easter or remotely like it...there'll be problems.

You need 2 jabs for the Pfizer vaccine.

The Oxford vaccine is testing both 1 and 2 shot versions, and as far as I've seen there's no word yet on which is more likely.

Hence I deliberately said shots rather than people.

[fraybentos1]

Even anywhere near 15 million people being vaccinated means like a quarter of the uk population- surely deaths and hospitalisations will plummet when we get anywhere near those numbers?

[xxialac]

1 minute ago, incident said:

You need 2 jabs for the Pfizer vaccine.

The Oxford vaccine is testing both 1 and 2 shot versions, and as far as I've seen there's no word yet on which is more likely.

Hence I deliberately said shots rather than people.

Fair enough. I was just pointing out that to go from 15 million without extra resource (assuming 2 shot version) to 66 million is one hell of a leap.

And the Oxford version won't be ready til next year.

[fraybentos1]

1 minute ago, xxialac said:

Fair enough. I was just pointing out that to go from 15 million without extra resource (assuming 2 shot version) to 66 million is one hell of a leap.

And the Oxford version won't be ready til next year.

Why on earth would 66 million people need it though?

Also most chat regarding Oxford seems to suggest the phase 3 data is imminent and it'll be rolled out not long after that so not sure why you're saying next year.

Edited November 19, 2020 by fraybentos1

[zahidf]

2 minutes ago, fraybentos1 said:

Even anywhere near 15 million people being vaccinated means like a quarter of the uk population- surely deaths and hospitalisations will plummet when we get anywhere near those numbers?

Yeah exactly. Don't need the whole population vaccinated(and that's not the Govt aim)

[Crazyfool01]

Do we have any Jabbers on here ? thanks in Advance 

Edited November 19, 2020 by crazyfool1

[xxialac]

Just now, fraybentos1 said:

Why on earth would 66 million people need it though?

Also most chat regarding Oxford seems to suggest the phase 3 data is imminent and it'll be rolled out not long after that so not sure why you're saying next year.

They are expecting to report their next set of results by Christmas.

That sounds absolutely like vaccinations next year to me. I mean, the year is almost over already!

[Crazyfool01]

Just now, xxialac said:

They are expecting to report their next set of results by Christmas.

That sounds absolutely like vaccinations next year to me. I mean, the year is almost over already!

with the other one starting very soon ... maybe 2 weeks away ..... 

[JoeyT]

2 minutes ago, xxialac said:

They are expecting to report their next set of results by Christmas.

That sounds absolutely like vaccinations next year to me. I mean, the year is almost over already!

I’ve a feeling they will almost simultaneously announce the phase 3 efficacy results and regulatory approval.

The Oxford Vaccine team dare I say seem a bit more cards close to chest than the others and there’s a reason it’s the one with highest volume of orders.

Safety data is being reviewed on a rolling basis so certainly think we’ll see it in action this year. Even more confident given it doesn’t require the same storage & distribution framework required for the Pfizer vaccine.

[incident]

6 minutes ago, xxialac said:

Fair enough. I was just pointing out that to go from 15 million without extra resource (assuming 2 shot version) to 66 million is one hell of a leap.

And the Oxford version won't be ready til next year.

66 million is a false number though - the UK adult population is ~52 million, and it's not even certain that all of those will be targetted.

I don't think anyone on here can safely say exactly when the Oxford vaccine will be available - but we can't use the Pfizer/Moderna timescales as any indication.

As Oxford are waiting until they're ready to publish before announcing their Phase 3 results, there will likely be a much, much shorter gap between us hearing about the results and them filing for approval - maybe no gap at all. It's still possible and maybe even likely that Oxford is approved before the end of the year, as while they're not giving a timescale for announcing it seems to be imminent.

[xxialac]

2 minutes ago, incident said:

66 million is a false number though - the UK adult population is ~52 million, and it's not even certain that all of those will be targetted.

I don't think anyone on here can safely say exactly when the Oxford vaccine will be available - but we can't use the Pfizer/Moderna timescales as any indication.

As Oxford are waiting until they're ready to publish before announcing their Phase 3 results, there will likely be a much, much shorter gap between us hearing about the results and them filing for approval - maybe no gap at all. It's still possible and maybe even likely that Oxford is approved before the end of the year, as while they're not giving a timescale for announcing it seems to be imminent.

OK, you're right.

But Easter is unarguably just over 90 days into the year. To vaccinate on the scale you suggested by then, given it needs to be approved, manufactured, distributed and with complex logistics (and during Brexit!)  - no chance.

Maybe they'll do 10 million people by then.

[Crazyfool01]

4 minutes ago, xxialac said:

OK, you're right.

But Easter is unarguably just over 90 days into the year. To vaccinate on the scale you suggested by then, given it needs to be approved, manufactured, distributed and with complex logistics (and during Brexit!)  - no chance.

Maybe they'll do 10 million people by then.

is oxford not manufactured here ? and pfizer in Belgium ? so even brexit might not cause such bad distribution issues for the former 

Edited November 19, 2020 by crazyfool1

[xxialac]

2 minutes ago, crazyfool1 said:

is oxford not manufactured here ? and pfizer in Belgium ? so even brexit might not cause such bad distribution issues for the former 

Yes, exactly - on the Oxford one no but not on Pfizer yes it could.

Edited November 19, 2020 by xxialac

[incident]

1 minute ago, xxialac said:

OK, you're right.

But Easter is unarguably just over 90 days into the year. To vaccinate on the scale you suggested by then, given it needs to be approved, manufactured, distributed and with complex logistics (and during Brexit!)  - no chance.

Maybe they'll do 10 million people by then.

For Oxford, the manufacturing is already underway, and is entirely domestic (Wrexham, I believe) - so while Brexit might well be used as an excuse if something goes wrong, it shouldn't actually be a factor.

Pfizer is being manufactured in Belgium and then air freighted on dedicated flights so any potential Brexit port chaos shouldn't be an issue.

I'm not underestimating the ability of the government to fuck it up, but there's certainly reason to think it's possible to get it right.

[Ozanne]

22 minutes ago, xxialac said:

They are expecting to report their next set of results by Christmas.

That sounds absolutely like vaccinations next year to me. I mean, the year is almost over already!

I don’t think it’s a stretch to think that they wouldn’t be able to start getting the Oxford one out to people until next year, as you say it’s not far away. 

[xxialac]

2 minutes ago, Ozanne said:

I don’t think it’s a stretch to think that they wouldn’t be able to start getting the Oxford one out to people until next year, as you say it’s not far away. 

Thanks. We shall see!

[Ayrshire Chris]

27 minutes ago, crazyfool1 said:

Do we have any Jabbers on here ? thanks in Advance 

Translation for those of us north of the border

do we have any jaggers on here? . 😁

 

[JoeyT]

3 minutes ago, Ozanne said:

I don’t think it’s a stretch to think that they wouldn’t be able to start getting the Oxford one out to people until next year, as you say it’s not far away. 

I’ve read in places that there is thinking the Oxford vaccine will be out there before the Pfizer even given it currently seems behind it due to the public nature of Pfizer.

[Superscally]

Has anyone else (re)stumbled across this thread whilst having a particularly troublesome poo and chuckled to themselves? Welcome to my world. 

[stuartbert two hats]

37 minutes ago, fraybentos1 said:

Why on earth would 66 million people need it though?

Also most chat regarding Oxford seems to suggest the phase 3 data is imminent and it'll be rolled out not long after that so not sure why you're saying next year.

This makes it sound like January is more likely: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/nov/19/oxford-covid-scientists-no-rush-to-get-vaccine-results-by-christmas?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Other

[Superscally]

7 minutes ago, Ayrshire Chris said:

Translation for those of us north of the border

do we have any jaggers on here? . 😁

 

 

[RobertProsineckisLighter]

https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-supermarkets-most-common-exposure-setting-for-catching-coronavirus-in-england-latest-data-shows-12136418

Interesting.

[Ayrshire Chris]

10 minutes ago, Superscally said:

 

Ah can’t get no, inoculation