When will this shit end?

[Ozanne]

2 minutes ago, Homer said:

Great stuff, I propose we now close the voting and start arranging the open top bus tour.

You have no authority here Homer, no authority at all. 😜

[Mellotr0n]

1 hour ago, Toilet Duck said:

Jaysus lads, it's all a bit touchy here this morning! It's a stressful time, I get it, I'm sick of working from my office at home too and really want to float around in the Med this summer (I miss warm sun!) and do some more interesting things, but we'll get there...

Anyway, PCR data above...with the caveat that CT values are still not the most accurate and are a function of sample input (unless you are running normalised, quantitative PCRs, which most places aren't), it does look like once protection starts to kick in a couple of weeks after the 1st shot that those who get infected have lower viral loads (25-27 might not seem a big jump, but it's an exponential scale)...The fact that the readings are from lots of people gives a bit of security since variations in sample acquisition and sample input would start to be smoothed out (but there's pretty big interquartile ranges at the later times suggesting a fair bit of variation in the data...needs some stats!)...there's good data now on viral load and infectiousness (though some of the studies that have looked at CT values would suggest that 27 would still be infectious, we need to get up into the 32-35+ range before we starts to see a big drop off in isolates capable of infecting cells in the lab (we still don't know how that directly relates to transmission), and those are the ranges we would normally consider not present when we run PCRs anyway).

So, there's two things that will contribute to vaccines having an impact on transmission...first is that fewer people that have been vaccinated get infected (you can't infect someone else if you are not infected yourself), second is that those that do get infected are starting to appear to have lower viral loads, and thus should be less infectious (we may reduce the number of super-spreaders a bit, bit I still think behaviour plays a key role in super-spreading). I don't think it's enough to eliminate the virus any time soon...I don't think we will eliminate it full stop, but you never know!...maybe combinations of successive vaccinations will eventually build a repertoire of stable neutralising antibodies that will fully fend off any variant, but I doubt it, since if we look at Shane Crotty's work (currently the strongest data on the immune response to SARS-CoV-2), neutralising antibody levels drop off after a short enough time, while cell-based immunological memory that prevents serious disease remains persistent, and this is consistent with vaccination/infection driving continued transmission but a predominance of mild disease...and to be honest, I'm fine with that as an outcome...

We don't have the same kind of detail on the immune response post-vaccination, but we are getting an idea from the phase 1/2 data each of the vaccine developers has published and from ongoing studies. We'll see how the other vaccines stack up against the new variants, but so far everything I've seen suggests they will all continue to afford significant protection from severe disease, hospitalisation & death, which is how we end this (and indeed, some of them may do even better...Pfizer published their data on the response to an engineered SA variant this morning in Nature Medicine (link below), and the drop off in neutralising antibodies (geometric mean titres to be precise) in vaccinated individuals capable of targeting the E484K-containing variant were about -1.4 fold after 2 doses and well within the limits we use for driving vaccine strain change for flu for example...there's no clinical outcome data in the paper, which is why everyone is up in arms about the small AZ study, but a properly powered study on clinical efficacy will tell us if these antibody responses translate into protection and if so, what level...but they augur well...to be honest, the best data we currently have on clinical outcome is the phase 3 data from various vaccine trials that were run during the spread of different variants and we don't see a massive jump in hospitalisations/death, but do see a drop off in protective efficacy, so I'd take that as a pretty good indication of what impact they are likely to have). 

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-021-01270-4

Once again common sense, knowledge and logic prevails. Sorry that it's required!

[mazola]

17 minutes ago, xxialac said:

I assume they will then switch into touting the 'total number of jabs' figure rather than what they are doing currently i.e. 'number of people vaccinated' (sic).

Even when they're winning, they're spinning.

 

You are the one spinning it mate

[Reckoner]

2 hours ago, tigger123 said:

I didn't say that their economies weren't operating effectively, although the OECD said that Australia's economy contracted 3.8% in 2020, which clearly is better than a lot of other countries including the UK, but in non-Covid times, a 3.8% economic contraction is viewed as a substantial recession. I imagine they will want to do something about that, especially as Australia's exports have been harmed by the closed border policy. If they're happy to continue with closed borders forever, then that's their prerogative, but I just don't see it being a permanent thing. They will probably stay in place in the short to medium term, but in the long term, no chance.

Lots of confusion with this. The borders are not closed. They are closed to Non citizens who do not hold an exemption to travel eg tourists and non citizens with non essential travel. Trade has not stopped. Cargo has not stopped. Exports have been hit due to issues with China more than anything although demand dropping due to a global pandemic obviously doesn't help.

The economy rose 3.3% in Q3.  Not as good as good as NZ, but we have other structural issues.

Not sure why anyone thinks Australia won't reopen borders when the global caseload comes under some control. It won't be forever.

Zero Covid is not no Covid. Its about keeping cases low by breaking transmission chains, then keeping them low to stay out of lockdown and allow the domestic economy to function. I'm not sure why this is controversial, especially for people who are on their 3rd one.

[eastynh]

4 minutes ago, Homer said:

Great stuff, I propose we now close the voting and start arranging the open top bus tour.

Has Neil not let us swap our up votes for e-fests mugs? 500 up votes must surely get you a mug.

[Crazyfool01]

15 minutes ago, eastynh said:

Has Neil not let us swap our up votes for e-fests mugs? 500 up votes must surely get you a mug.

Like 👍 

[xxialac]

18 minutes ago, mazola said:

You are the one spinning it mate

We shall see, won’t we...

They’ve spun everything else and here’s another chance to switch figures to the one that puts them in a. better light.

[st dan]

3 minutes ago, xxialac said:

We shall see, won’t we...

They’ve spun everything else and here’s another chance to switch figures to the one that puts them in a. better light.

The government can be criticised for many things throughout this whole pandemic, but one thing they have been very transparent with is figures - of both cases and deaths, and I have no cause to now doubt them with vaccine numbers.

If they really wanted to paint themselves in a better light, then they would have manipulated the death figures like the majority of countries have to make them appear lower, but we know that hasn’t been the case. 

[zahidf]

6 minutes ago, xxialac said:

We shall see, won’t we...

They’ve spun everything else and here’s another chance to switch figures to the one that puts them in a. better light.

Weren't you stressing massively about them lying about the mid feb targets and how ridiculous their targets were?

 

Maybe chill a bit about the vaccine numbers? They're smashing it.

[Hannibal Schmitt]

Bad news again for Mountain-Lovers and Skiers:

 

VIENNA, Feb 8 (Reuters) - Austria is warning against non-essential travel to its Alpine province of Tyrol because of an outbreak of the so-called South African variant of the coronavirus there, the government said in a statement on Monday.

“The government is warning against travel to Tyrol in order to prevent the South African variant from spreading and the government asks all citizens to restrict journeys to Tyrol to those that are absolutely necessary,” the statement quoted Chancellor Sebastian Kurz as saying.

 

 

[zahidf]

 

[JoeyT]

 

[zahidf]

 

Down on last week alas but probably cos of bad weather. 

[squirrelarmy]

Page 2500 hype 🤷‍♂️

[Homer]

13 minutes ago, st dan said:

The government can be criticised for many things throughout this whole pandemic, but one thing they have been very transparent with is figures - of both cases and deaths, and I have no cause to now doubt them with vaccine numbers.

If they really wanted to paint themselves in a better light, then they would have manipulated the death figures like the majority of countries have to make them appear lower, but we know that hasn’t been the case. 

I thought if you went by excess deaths you get something like 20,000 more?

[xxialac]

14 minutes ago, st dan said:

The government can be criticised for many things throughout this whole pandemic, but one thing they have been very transparent with is figures - of both cases and deaths, and I have no cause to now doubt them with vaccine numbers.

If they really wanted to paint themselves in a better light, then they would have manipulated the death figures like the majority of countries have to make them appear lower, but we know that hasn’t been the case. 

I could not disagree more.

Any chance to obfuscate, distract, spin, manipulate, compare when it suits, not compare when it doesn't - they've done so.

[xxialac]

14 minutes ago, zahidf said:

Weren't you stressing massively about them lying about the mid feb targets and how ridiculous their targets were?

 

Maybe chill a bit about the vaccine numbers? They're smashing it.

First I didn't say they were lying, I forecast they would end up overpromising, underdelivering as has been the case. I said I was wrong on here about that and ate some humble pie.

And secondly, this isn't about the numbers. You've completely missed my point.

It's about how they twist everything to paint themselves in a better light.

[northernringo]

On 2/4/2021 at 2:12 PM, northernringo said:

Continues to fall, the rate is now down to 170.3/100k, this is the lowest since Dec 12th.

296 cases today which is the lowest daily number since November 30th.

7 day rate is now down to 155.2, with 5 of the 11 regions of NI having a 7 day rate below 100 (including mine).

The 7 day rate for NI is at its lowest since Dec 5th.

[Homer]

[incident]

1 hour ago, Paul ™ said:

 

That actually does surprise me.

I would have thought that loads of their mates / partners / relatives would own hotels.

[xxialac]

Just now, incident said:

That actually does surprise me.

I would have thought that loads of their mates / partners / relatives would own hotels.

From a hotel's perspective, it's fraught with problems.

If there's an outbreak you'll get potentially bad publicity.

Extra planning to get the hotel ready.

Extra staff to hire in and manage for what might be a very short time if they decide to give up on hotel quarantining and replace it with something else.

Doesn't sound like the margins will be that great too.

Can easily understand that many won't want the aggro - I see Travelodge for one have already turned it down.

[Crazyfool01]

1 minute ago, xxialac said:

From a hotel's perspective, it's fraught with problems.

If there's an outbreak you'll get potentially bad publicity.

Extra planning to get the hotel ready.

Extra staff to hire in and manage for what might be a very short time if they decide to give up on hotel quarantining and replace it with something else.

Doesn't sound like the margins will be that great too.

Can easily understand that many won't want the aggro - I see Travelodge for one have already turned it down.

It could also be incentivised though and made worthwhile ... its not like we spaffed billions on a shit test and trace .... 

[duke88]

28 minutes ago, xxialac said:

First I didn't say they were lying, I forecast they would end up overpromising, underdelivering as has been the case. I said I was wrong on here about that and ate some humble pie.

And secondly, this isn't about the numbers. You've completely missed my point.

It's about how they twist everything to paint themselves in a better light.

Surely the figures will just keep on being released in the same format - first and second doses delivered each day. They don't need to twist things on vaccines, they're actually doing a great jpb on something for once.

[Homer]

Just received my randomly generated test in the post. Have to book a courier, take a 15 min survey and get the result within 72 hours apparently.

[blutarsky]

On 2/6/2021 at 8:11 AM, squirrelarmy said:

But how will I get validation if I can’t collect meaningless internet points 😉

UPVOTED