When will this shit end?

[Fuzzy Afro]

Woman absolutely manhandled by police at Vauxhall station over mask compliance incident. Expect a BLM kick off in the coming days. Source: Martin Daubney twitter 

[incident]

3 minutes ago, danbailey80 said:

Can anyone tell me if it's possible to move a second jab forward? I got my first AZ/ Oxford jab 5th May and am due to get the second 21st July. Any chance I can move this forward or is it set in stone? I'm 42 is that's relevant. 

 

You should be able to move it to 8 weeks, subject to availability in your area - just go on the NHS booking site and take a look - though you'll have to first cancel your existing appointment if it's booked through them.

[DeanoL]

17 minutes ago, incident said:

I don't see how 82 admissions is worrying, if it's being more than matched by discharges.

The anecdotal evidence from Bolton suggests that a decent number of their admissions in their recent "surge" were people who to be blunt didn't need to be in hospital, wouldn't have been admitted in the previous waves, and were discharged same day - this would suggest the same is happening nationwide (albeit still on very low numbers).

Your overall point isn't wrong but don't conflate "didn't need to be in hospital" with "wouldn't have been admitted in the previous waves". Sometimes the intervention taken on that same day can still be life-saving. The first peak saw 25000 excess deaths in private homes (and the same again in care homes) - all of those people weren't admitted to hospital in the first wave and absolutely needed to be in hospital. 

The previous three waves were all utter disasters and that's not the standard of care we should be benchmarking again this time. 

13 minutes ago, Fuzzy Afro said:

Calling it now, time to start AZ’ing the young ones 

But AZ is also the least effective as a single shot again the Delta variant. Which tilts that benefit/risk measure back the other way again. I think if I was in the position of getting AZ now or Pfizer in a month, I'd take the latter, and I think a lot of young people would too. 

Either way, we can't be pushing the narrative to young people of "it's fine, get out, start the economy, you'll be fine" while at the same time saying "get this vaccine with potentially dangerous side-effects".

My other worry is that the blood clot issue with AZ is fairly well known now and can be spotted and dealt with, but I wouldn't want to be relying on that at the same time hospitals were starting to get stretched again.

[DeanoL]

6 minutes ago, Toilet Duck said:

To be fair, in areas where certain viruses are prevalent and outbreaks have occurred, it's pretty common to find labs that study those viruses close by (the regions are at risk, so that's why they study them...and coronaviruses are common in Hubei..in fact some of the early documented outbreaks of this CoV were in more rural areas of Hubei, pretty far away from Wuhan and there's good evidence here that it was circulating in the province maybe even as early as October 2019). The closest relative to SARS-CoV-2 detected to date is about 96% identical (described in the original paper on the virus in Nature and it was indeed being studied in the virology lab in Wuhan), which sounds very similar, but it's actually a reasonable amount of divergence (we are almost 99% genetically similar to chimps for example). 

The obvious thing to do would to be to go back to where that relative was found and see if the current strain is present in animals there, but so far China has refused calls to do so, which seemed somewhat worrying!

[Guest]

15 minutes ago, northernringo said:

For those thinking admissions and discharges are similar...

NW hospital beds occupied up 40% in a week. Things are only going to get worse on the hospitalisation front over the next few weeks (seeing as they lag cases, which we have seen have gotten worse).

Yeah, I’ve been say the this for a few days now, as cases rise it’s only natural for hospital admissions to start rising a few days later. 

[Fuzzy Afro]

5 minutes ago, DeanoL said:

Your overall point isn't wrong but don't conflate "didn't need to be in hospital" with "wouldn't have been admitted in the previous waves". Sometimes the intervention taken on that same day can still be life-saving. The first peak saw 25000 excess deaths in private homes (and the same again in care homes) - all of those people weren't admitted to hospital in the first wave and absolutely needed to be in hospital. 

The previous three waves were all utter disasters and that's not the standard of care we should be benchmarking again this time. 

But AZ is also the least effective as a single shot again the Delta variant. Which tilts that benefit/risk measure back the other way again. I think if I was in the position of getting AZ now or Pfizer in a month, I'd take the latter, and I think a lot of young people would too. 

Either way, we can't be pushing the narrative to young people of "it's fine, get out, start the economy, you'll be fine" while at the same time saying "get this vaccine with potentially dangerous side-effects".

My other worry is that the blood clot issue with AZ is fairly well known now and can be spotted and dealt with, but I wouldn't want to be relying on that at the same time hospitals were starting to get stretched again.

Wasn’t it found that both of them are 33% effective against Delta from a single dose?

[incident]

2 minutes ago, DeanoL said:

Your overall point isn't wrong but don't conflate "didn't need to be in hospital" with "wouldn't have been admitted in the previous waves". Sometimes the intervention taken on that same day can still be life-saving. The first peak saw 25000 excess deaths in private homes (and the same again in care homes) - all of those people weren't admitted to hospital in the first wave and absolutely needed to be in hospital. 

The previous three waves were all utter disasters and that's not the standard of care we should be benchmarking again this time.

Yeah, those are all fair caveats to put on it. I was just trying to (clumsily) illustrate that a relatively low number of admissions that under normalish operation shouldn't be treated with the same level of panic as higher numbers from when hospitals literally had to turn people away. I definitely had no intention of trying to diminish anyone who previously would have benefited from treatment but wasn't able to get it.

[Fuzzy Afro]

6 minutes ago, DeanoL said:

Your overall point isn't wrong but don't conflate "didn't need to be in hospital" with "wouldn't have been admitted in the previous waves". Sometimes the intervention taken on that same day can still be life-saving. The first peak saw 25000 excess deaths in private homes (and the same again in care homes) - all of those people weren't admitted to hospital in the first wave and absolutely needed to be in hospital. 

The previous three waves were all utter disasters and that's not the standard of care we should be benchmarking again this time. 

But AZ is also the least effective as a single shot again the Delta variant. Which tilts that benefit/risk measure back the other way again. I think if I was in the position of getting AZ now or Pfizer in a month, I'd take the latter, and I think a lot of young people would too. 

Either way, we can't be pushing the narrative to young people of "it's fine, get out, start the economy, you'll be fine" while at the same time saying "get this vaccine with potentially dangerous side-effects".

My other worry is that the blood clot issue with AZ is fairly well known now and can be spotted and dealt with, but I wouldn't want to be relying on that at the same time hospitals were starting to get stretched again.

Also on your last point, aren’t those clots incredibly rare so won’t add much pressure to the NHS? Like if you jab every remaining under 30 with AZ you might be looking at a handful of hospitalisations from the clots. 

[Guest]

Vaccination update:

[JoeyT]

Overall cases across UK lower than yesterday...

 

[Guest]

Another large increases of cases up substantially from this time last week.

Edited June 10, 2021 by Ozanne

[George_92]

 

[DeanoL]

1 minute ago, Fuzzy Afro said:

Also on your last point, aren’t those clots incredibly rare so won’t add much pressure to the NHS? Like if you jab every remaining under 30 with AZ you might be looking at a handful of hospitalisations from the clots. 

They wouldn't add much pressure - but they need swift action based on relatively mild symptoms. I wouldn't want to be trying to get that looked at while the NHS was panicking with COVID admissions. 

[Guest]

 

[jimmillen]

14 minutes ago, danbailey80 said:

Can anyone tell me if it's possible to move a second jab forward? I got my first AZ/ Oxford jab 5th May and am due to get the second 21st July. Any chance I can move this forward or is it set in stone? I'm 42 is that's relevant. 

 

I did exactly this, was booked in for 2nd jab on 20th July, cancelled & was able to rebook for 29th June. First jab was 4th May, I’m 40. 

I don’t think there’s any guarantee you’ll get an earlier slot - bit of a gamble ‘cos you’ve got to cancel before you can see what appointments are available. But it’s definitely possible. 

[stuartbert two hats]

46 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

Haven't we got loads of Moderna ones?

No. We've ordered plenty of Moderna (17M), but it's coming through in dribs and drabs.

[efcfanwirral]

37 minutes ago, zahidf said:

 

Can't argue with that part for sure - the time to reinforce that will be unlocking time at the press conference. They need to undo some of the fear and make it clear this is the case, otherwise we'll be bounced straight into lockdown by the press in October. We're freaking out over some very small numbers now, imagine when the winter ones start

32 minutes ago, Fuzzy Afro said:

Just to acknowledge my privilege here, I’m in my late twenties and had Pfizer ages ago due to underlying health conditions. I know not many young ones wilk want the AZ 

I wouldn't have taken it but as I've said before, that exact issue it rarely causes is exactly what happened to my mum (not vaccine or covid related( so a) potential genetic predisposition makes me think risk reward isn't anywhere near balanced for me personally and b) I've seen what low platelets WITHOUT the clots can do and that's not something a young person wants. I've got to be honest my own immune system is why I'm scared of the others too but I just have to take my chances there. 

I'd probably say it's best to wait til they've fixed the issue and use it for boosters. I personally think it's unethical to use it on increasingly younger people for hypothetical variant risks

Only giving my personal experience of the exact issue it can cause, and I personally think one is too many at this stage when we're talking about such small numbers. 

Edited June 10, 2021 by efcfanwirral

[northernringo]

Any vaccination appointments booked in NI will now have a second dose automatically created 8 weeks later.

Those (like me) who have been vaccinated in the last couple of weeks have been told to keep their appointments as is (10 weeks after first dose).

[steviewevie]

2 minutes ago, efcfanwirral said:

Can't argue with that part for sure - the time to reinforce that will be unlocking time at the press conference. They need to undo some of the fear and make it clear this is the case, otherwise we'll be bounced straight into lockdown by the press in October. We're freaking out over some very small numbers now, imagine when the winter ones start

small numbers now...but apparently SAGE modellers have forecast potentially big numbers over the next few months if did release restrictions on 21st June.

[phimill]

Not sure this has been thought about before.

Obviously the UK wanted to open vaccination up to all adults by 21.6.

Did they get stumped by how good the take up was going to be and therefore - might be at 80% of adults by 21/6 which they had possibly planned for.

But due to high take up at all levels means they haven't got "good" levels at all ages? They have excellent at high ages, but not enough round the younger bracket just yet

[Chapple12345]

 

[Toilet Duck]

26 minutes ago, DeanoL said:

The obvious thing to do would to be to go back to where that relative was found and see if the current strain is present in animals there, but so far China has refused calls to do so, which seemed somewhat worrying!

I think the related variant was found back in 2008, so it might be a difficult search! Releasing the sequence of every virus in the institute would put paid to the speculation completely, and they have said the one published is the closest relative in their collection, but independent confirmation of that would end things. I still think a jump from bats most likely though.

[DeanoL]

Was found in cave of bats though, they could still be there, the virus could have naturally mutated in those animals over those 12 years? More likely that in mutating in a lab I would have thought?

[danmarks]

21 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

small numbers now...but apparently SAGE modellers have forecast potentially big numbers over the next few months if did release restrictions on 21st June.

Its the potentially bit in there that's the issue.

Forecasts are always potentially  huge depending on the variables put in.

You could potentially win 5billion quid for a 50p bet if all the variables went your way and i could show all the workings out to prove it.

Most people wouldnt run off and jack their job in on that possible projection.

[zahidf]