When will this shit end?

[Mimo]

1 minute ago, st dan said:

I’ll be honest, I’m under 40 and would be glad if I get the choice of vaccines. Everything considered and in my personal opinion, I wouldn’t want the AZ unless there really was no other option. 

I only turned 40 recently and was feeling very smug that I’d get a vaccine before most of my friends, but now I’m a little miffed lol

AZ is definitely much much better than no vaccine at all though and I’ll be really glad to have whatever they put in me on Sunday! Not concerned about the clots, but I get the impression that everyone who has AZ will be getting a Pfizer booster before the year is out due to the variants. 

[Guest]

 

 

[zahidf]

 

[steviewevie]

Germany rejects US-backed proposal to waive vaccine patents

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-57013096

[zahidf]

 

[Reckoner]

6 hours ago, efcfanwirral said:

Indeed I agree 

 

We've had an mini outbreak in a hospital here in Singapore of B1617 and it seems to be having similar results. 1 death Un-vaccinated, and a number of vaccinated 80+ who have only been affected by minor symptoms. Pfizer and Moderna in use here, so it seems on limited early data as though all the main vaccines are holding strong against it.

That's not to say close monitoring couldn't be kept up of course, but the early information seems to be positive.

[Guest]

FYI - There’s a Downing Street briefing later from Grant Shapps, he’s going to announce the international travel plans. 

[northernringo]

Just now, Ozanne said:

FYI - There’s a Downing Street briefing later from Grant Shapps, he’s going to announce the international travel plans. 

Any idea what time it is supposed to be at?

[efcfanwirral]

3 minutes ago, Ozanne said:

FYI - There’s a Downing Street briefing later from Grant Shapps, he’s going to announce the international travel plans. 

Foreign travel before getting close to fully opening up here. And what are we currently supposed to be scared of? Ah yes, foreign variants...

[Guest]

11 minutes ago, northernringo said:

Any idea what time it is supposed to be at?

1700 mate. 

[DeanoL]

 

12 hours ago, stuartbert two hats said:

I think I posted about this being odd the other day, but things have jumped considerably in the last few days. It really looks like that Indian variant does spread more.

The question is - is anyone with a decent time since their vaccinations being infected, and if so, are they getting ill?  

That's not the main question really. The vaccines are good, if it was killing already vaccinated people we would know about it. The concern is around how much more transmissible it is. Every (reasoned, valid) argument for speeding up the roadmap here is that the vaccines appear to reduce transmission more than we had hoped - allowing us to get somewhere close to herd immunity. Once a large portion of people are vaccinated, it'll spread loads less. If the new variant effects that, then it creates a speed bump: we can't let it rip round 20- and 30-somethings in a couple of weeks as it might if everything is open. Only a tiny percentage would end up in hospital, but that tiny percentage would still be loads. 

But that's absolute worst case, and that'd mean delaying reopening by maybe 6 weeks until we can get those people vaccinated. It's the scare stories suggesting this means indefinite lockdown again that wind me up. When it's just a matter of whether we get to reopen a bit before everyone is vaccinated or a bit after.

[st dan]

I’m still convinced their initial plans were to have the full adult population offered a vaccine by end of May. The date of 21st June was 3 weeks after the vaccines would have kicked in for everybody (in theory). 
Obviously that looks like a very ambitious target from the outside, but maybe they haven’t been able to vaccinate in the numbers they envisaged - whether that be due to supply, or logistics, issues with AZ etc. And we already know the take up has been much more than anticipated too. 
 

[efcfanwirral]

15 minutes ago, DeanoL said:

 

That's not the main question really. The vaccines are good, if it was killing already vaccinated people we would know about it. The concern is around how much more transmissible it is. Every (reasoned, valid) argument for speeding up the roadmap here is that the vaccines appear to reduce transmission more than we had hoped - allowing us to get somewhere close to herd immunity. Once a large portion of people are vaccinated, it'll spread loads less. If the new variant effects that, then it creates a speed bump: we can't let it rip round 20- and 30-somethings in a couple of weeks as it might if everything is open. Only a tiny percentage would end up in hospital, but that tiny percentage would still be loads. 

But that's absolute worst case, and that'd mean delaying reopening by maybe 6 weeks until we can get those people vaccinated. It's the scare stories suggesting this means indefinite lockdown again that wind me up. When it's just a matter of whether we get to reopen a bit before everyone is vaccinated or a bit after.

I think a lot of the worries about it being more long term is the assumption/acceptance that winter will involve restrictions. I'm only looking a year ahead here, and if this goes on into July/August that then leaves us a month or two before we start moving in the direction of fun stuff being stopped as the underfunded NHS fills up. 

With the assumption that after 21st June you'll need to show vaccine proof or negative test to get in anywhere non socially distanced, If they were to delay anything it would make more sense to delay the 17th May, because there's no such thing as "covid safe" indoors - everyone will be breathing the same air over time regardless of masks and distancing. If anything it may actually be even safer after 21st June in public spaces once those measures are in. 

Edited May 7, 2021 by efcfanwirral

[Homer]

1 hour ago, northernringo said:

Any idea what time it is supposed to be at?

I read an article about this this morning. Basically, flights to countries expected to be on the green list are crazy expensive (there is a singly to Portugal that is more expensive than a return to New York). However, once the green list comes out, the airlines will increase capacity accordingly and prices will come down.

[JoeyT]

Just now, Homer said:

I read an article about this this morning. Basically, flights to countries expected to be on the green list are crazy expensive (there is a singly to Portugal that is more expensive than a return to New York). However, once the green list comes out, the airlines will increase capacity accordingly and prices will come down.

Will they though...? Airlines will adjust prices to demand so you'll have to be bloody quick to book and get a reasonable price i'd imagine!

I'd also put money on EasyJet / RyanAir websites crashing within 5 mins of the announcement...

[JoeyT]

 

[northernringo]

Is it expected that the green list countries will still only allow travellers in if they are either vaccinated or test negative?

[Guest]

 

[Homer]

We looked at booking a holiday last night before the list gets released and they're not incredibly cheap anyway. It was about £400 each for two sharing for eight nights on a Greek or Canary island in the first week of October.

Decided that at that price (not outrageous but not particularly cheap either), we might as well just wait and see how things pan out. Easyjet Holidays were offering free cancellation up to 28 days before take-off though.

[zahidf]

 

[st dan]

1 minute ago, Ozanne said:

 

I’m pleased to hear this - does make me slightly concerned as to what we hear from the experts. JVT was adamant the risks were only for the under 30s and he even had graphs and charts to show it. 

[kalifire]

2 hours ago, Ozanne said:

FYI - There’s a Downing Street briefing later from Grant Shapps, he’s going to announce the international travel plans. 

I struggle to see how one country can unilaterally announce meaningful “travel plans” without an agreement in place from other countries. There doesn’t seem much point announcing we can travel to a country that isn’t allowing anyone in. 

[JoeyT]

 

[northernringo]

31 minutes ago, st dan said:

I’m pleased to hear this - does make me slightly concerned as to what we hear from the experts. JVT was adamant the risks were only for the under 30s and he even had graphs and charts to show it. 

That's not quite right.

JVT said the risk of the vaccine outweighed the risk from Covid for under 30s, hence why the plan was for the under 30s to use other vaccines.

However, seeing as our case numbers are now much lower, the risk from Covid for 30-39 year olds is now also less than the risk from the vaccine.

This is because the risk from covid must be equal to the risk upon being infect and the risk of getting infected. If the risk of getting infected drops (which it has been doing), then the risk from covid drops and now it has seemingly dropped to a level where the risk from covid is lower than the risk from the vaccine.

This is just an example of the decision makers being reactive to the falling chances of getting Covid.

[st dan]

6 minutes ago, northernringo said:

That's not quite right.

JVT said the risk of the vaccine outweighed the risk from Covid for under 30s, hence why the plan was for the under 30s to use other vaccines.

However, seeing as our case numbers are now much lower, the risk from Covid for 30-39 year olds is now also less than the risk from the vaccine.

This is because the risk from covid must be equal to the risk upon being infect and the risk of getting infected. If the risk of getting infected drops (which it has been doing), then the risk from covid drops and now it has seemingly dropped to a level where the risk from covid is lower than the risk from the vaccine.

This is just an example of the decision makers being reactive to the falling chances of getting Covid.

That’s fair, but then I guess if the rates keep dropping and stay very low, then the risks of either Covid or having the vaccine outweigh not having the vaccine at all won’t it? Which is clearly not what they want to suggesting.