When will this shit end?

[zahidf]

Scientific reaction on using 1 dose regime. Its... complicated basically!

https://www.sciencemediacentre.org/expert-reaction-to-comments-made-by-tony-blair-suggesting-we-should-consider-using-all-available-vaccine-doses-in-january-as-first-doses-rather-than-keeping-some-back-for-use-as-second-doses/

[Mr Boo]

1 hour ago, Big durbs said:

A BOXING DAY POO

You sit upon the toilet

With everything prepared

You're feeling quite excited but

A little bloody scared!

That huge amount of Christmas nosh

Has turned into a log

And now the fateful time has come

To flush it down the bog!

But first you must expel the beast

And so you start to strain,

You bite down on a piece of wood

To take away the pain

But oh my god, its bloody huge

It's like you're giving birth!

You sweat and push and swear and shake

and strain for all your worth.

And then that magic moment comes,

That fills your soul with cheer,

A turd the size of King Kongs arm

Emerges from your rear.

And like a bomb it hits the pan

Thus lightening your mood,

And making room inside your guts

For lots more Christmas food !!    

A festive answer to the question ‘when will this shit end’.

[sdvruxk]

8 hours ago, stuartbert two hats said:

Quite. Why the holy fuck does the Government policy seem to suggest that current restrictions in Manchester are just fine:

Shut. The. Shops.

Trafford and Stockport rising rapidly after a (relatively) good few months. Trafford’s my home area so hopefully it’s shut down before it gets out of hand!

[Suprefan]

 

[steviewevie]

The breakthough medicines that could change the course of Covid

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/dec/27/the-breakthough-medicines-that-could-change-the-course-of-covid

[JoeyT]

Well the positive news can keep on coming!

[stuartbert two hats]

2 hours ago, Suprefan said:

 

The Guardian has written up a summary of the Telegraph and Times articles and says approval is expected on Thursday (NYE). 

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/dec/27/global-report-astrazeneca-chief-believes-vaccine-will-work-on-variant-strain

A few days has never seemed so far away.

[stuartbert two hats]

55 minutes ago, stuartbert two hats said:

The Guardian has written up a summary of the Telegraph and Times articles and says approval is expected on Thursday (NYE). 

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/dec/27/global-report-astrazeneca-chief-believes-vaccine-will-work-on-variant-strain

A few days has never seemed so far away.

That article doesn't actually say Thursday, I must have read it somewhere else, it's obviously too early.

Anyway, rollout by the 4th Jan.

[FestivalJamie]

3 hours ago, Suprefan said:

 

Have they changed the dosing or what’s the deal here? A jump from 62% efficacy to 95% on a 2 dose regime would be a somewhat random change in results?

I have anxiety anyway but the overpromising of how fast they can roll this out is making me very anxious. I’m seeing a lot of newspapers claim there will be 1 million doses distributed a week from take off and that all restrictions are to end by February... If the government really think they can get away with this plan I would say the chances of a third lockdown are very small and they probably just let the NHS be overwhelmed in January and February and then claim they’ve vaccinated most in the world by march in a sort of victory style speech.

Im also just waiting cautiously on official data to come out on whether these vaccines work against the two new strains or whether adaptions might have to be made. I know it looks promising but the pessimist in me needs to wait to see an official confirmation.

 

[zahidf]

2 minutes ago, FestivalJamie said:

Have they changed the dosing or what’s the deal here? A jump from 62% efficacy to 95% on a 2 dose regime would be a somewhat random change in results?

I have anxiety anyway but the overpromising of how fast they can roll this out is making me very anxious. I’m seeing a lot of newspapers claim there will be 1 million doses distributed a week from take off and that all restrictions are to end by February... If the government really think they can get away with this plan I would say the chances of a third lockdown are very small and they probably just let the NHS be overwhelmed in January and February and then claim they’ve vaccinated most in the world by march in a sort of victory style speech.

Im also just waiting cautiously on official data to come out on whether these vaccines work against the two new strains or whether adaptions might have to be made. I know it looks promising but the pessimist in me needs to wait to see an official confirmation.

 

Its the opposite if they want to vaccinate everyone until end of Feb: restrictions until then.

Its a good thing if they manage that timetable. 

[Chapple12345]

13 hours ago, crazyfool1 said:

walked past them  a few times ... maybe used the same picking trolley ....  maybe been in changing room at the same time 😞 

Sorry for this late reply but we had several positive cases at my work who I walked past whilst infectious and nothing ever came of it so if they were wearing PPE you should be alright 

[zahidf]

12 minutes ago, stuartbert two hats said:

That article doesn't actually say Thursday, I must have read it somewhere else, it's obviously too early.

Anyway, rollout by the 4th Jan.

Mon or Tuesday says the telegraph. 

[FestivalJamie]

Just now, zahidf said:

Its the opposite if they want to vaccinate everyone until end of Feb: restrictions until then.

Its a good thing if they manage that timetable. 

Yes but it implies they are going to rely on vaccination rather than a full lockdown? There seems to be no shift from the current tier system to a full style lockdown and schools seem to be preparing to go back in January. With the current figures it’s worrying me a lot given that they think the vaccine alone can outweigh the benefits of tighter restrictions

[FestivalJamie]

At the end of the day I really don’t know what to believe in any of this anymore. When I compare uk and germany right now you’ve got UK promising “back to normal by Easter” and then you’ve got germany who on their timetable only plan for a mass rollout to the wider non vulnerable population from December 2021. And then you’ve got France where uptake is only set to be about 40%.

I think I would find it very strange if the uk is in a position to have festivals and mass gatherings come summer yet the rest of the Europe is still set with tight restrictions for a whole year or more. It will also make international travel potentially possible but probably with masks and testing etc as before. Will the uk keep its borders open once we’ve reached “herd immunity”? What if a new strain comes in from a poorer country which hasn’t had much access to vaccination supplies. I’ve questioned the strategy of leaving borders open from the start but perhaps it becomes more critical than ever once you’ve started vaccinating?

[stuartbert two hats]

6 minutes ago, FestivalJamie said:

Have they changed the dosing or what’s the deal here? A jump from 62% efficacy to 95% on a 2 dose regime would be a somewhat random change in results?

I have anxiety anyway but the overpromising of how fast they can roll this out is making me very anxious. I’m seeing a lot of newspapers claim there will be 1 million doses distributed a week from take off and that all restrictions are to end by February... If the government really think they can get away with this plan I would say the chances of a third lockdown are very small and they probably just let the NHS be overwhelmed in January and February and then claim they’ve vaccinated most in the world by march in a sort of victory style speech.

Im also just waiting cautiously on official data to come out on whether these vaccines work against the two new strains or whether adaptions might have to be made. I know it looks promising but the pessimist in me needs to wait to see an official confirmation.

 

Almost certainly a tweak in the dosing, I'd say. I wouldn't think of it as a jump from 62% to 95%, but rather a jump from 90% to 95%. 

They accidentally found that half dose/full dose gave them 90%. Once they analysed and understood the mechanism that gave them that boost in efficacy, it doesn't seem a stretch at all to me that they would be able to get an extra 5% once they actually understand what they're doing with the dosing.

[Fuzzy Afro]

2 minutes ago, FestivalJamie said:

At the end of the day I really don’t know what to believe in any of this anymore. When I compare uk and germany right now you’ve got UK promising “back to normal by Easter” and then you’ve got germany who on their timetable only plan for a mass rollout to the wider non vulnerable population from December 2021. And then you’ve got France where uptake is only set to be about 40%.

I think I would find it very strange if the uk is in a position to have festivals and mass gatherings come summer yet the rest of the Europe is still set with tight restrictions for a whole year or more. It will also make international travel potentially possible but probably with masks and testing etc as before. Will the uk keep its borders open once we’ve reached “herd immunity”? What if a new strain comes in from a poorer country which hasn’t had much access to vaccination supplies. I’ve questioned the strategy of leaving borders open from the start but perhaps it becomes more critical than ever once you’ve started vaccinating?

Because we don’t want to wait to vaccinate everyone before relaxing rules. No one is suggesting everyone would be vaccinated by Easter 

[zahidf]

1 minute ago, FestivalJamie said:

At the end of the day I really don’t know what to believe in any of this anymore. When I compare uk and germany right now you’ve got UK promising “back to normal by Easter” and then you’ve got germany who on their timetable only plan for a mass rollout to the wider non vulnerable population from December 2021. And then you’ve got France where uptake is only set to be about 40%.

I think I would find it very strange if the uk is in a position to have festivals and mass gatherings come summer yet the rest of the Europe is still set with tight restrictions for a whole year or more. It will also make international travel potentially possible but probably with masks and testing etc as before. Will the uk keep its borders open once we’ve reached “herd immunity”? What if a new strain comes in from a poorer country which hasn’t had much access to vaccination supplies. I’ve questioned the strategy of leaving borders open from the start but perhaps it becomes more critical than ever once you’ve started vaccinating?

But Spain and Italy have said they will reopen for the summer fully.

Germany are only starting their vaccination programme now compared to us. 

Anyway, accelerated vaccine programme here is a good thing. I expect they'll vaccinate people as quickly as possible to open up as quick as possible.

[zahidf]

8 minutes ago, FestivalJamie said:

Yes but it implies they are going to rely on vaccination rather than a full lockdown? There seems to be no shift from the current tier system to a full style lockdown and schools seem to be preparing to go back in January. With the current figures it’s worrying me a lot given that they think the vaccine alone can outweigh the benefits of tighter restrictions

Well yes, all counties are replacing lockdowns with vaccinations.

[zahidf]

1 minute ago, Fuzzy Afro said:

Because we don’t want to wait to vaccinate everyone before relaxing rules. No one is suggesting everyone would be vaccinated by Easter 

Yeah. Its vaccinating the old and vulnerable when countries drop restrictions.

[Crazyfool01]

11 minutes ago, Chapple12345 said:

Sorry for this late reply but we had several positive cases at my work who I walked past whilst infectious and nothing ever came of it so if they were wearing PPE you should be alright 

Thanks that’s reasuring  guess I will find out if it’s spread tomorow when I go in .... unless everyone is asymptomatic 🙂 

[Deaf Nobby Burton]

People seem to forget how relaxed things got in the summer and that was with no protection for anybody. As soon as a certain percentage are vaccinated, we’re not going to be under conditions that are actually the same or stricter than the summer are we?

[FestivalJamie]

3 minutes ago, Fuzzy Afro said:

Because we don’t want to wait to vaccinate everyone before relaxing rules. No one is suggesting everyone would be vaccinated by Easter 

I have so many questions that no one on here would be able to answer but they just whir around my head.

For example, once the “vulnerable” are vaccinated, what happens to test and trace. If restrictions are ditched, surely test and trace is ditched. Then we could see more cases than ever among a younger population. I’m not sure I would personally want to subject myself to a mass style infection where they just let it spread. There’s also a lot of younger people who have existing health problems and where do they fit in the rollout timetable and how will we ensure these people are protected if we drop all restrictions? There’s also a lot of aged 50+ who are vulnerable to the disease and there’s also the issue of long covid which I think about 5% of people suffer with post disease (I know people have said this isn’t enough to continue restrictions and I’m not arguing for that but I’m just wondering what happens if they allow a free for all of back to normal).

[FestivalJamie]

2 minutes ago, Deaf Nobby Burton said:

People seem to forget how relaxed things got in the summer and that was with no protection for anybody. As soon as a certain percentage are vaccinated, we’re not going to be under conditions that are actually the same or stricter than the summer are we?

In my vision so far I’ve always seen summer 2021 being similar to summer 2020. Things weren’t supposed to get that relaxed in the summer but it all got a bit out of control, people having parties, eat out to help out etc. It was never supposed to get that relaxed, because the rule was only ever 6 people outside or 2 households inside but I didn’t see many people sticking to it.

The thing I can’t draw a line under is what will be a sensitive subject on here but that’s festivals. Will they require testing or once we achieve vulnerable vaccinated will they be allowed to go ahead? Perhaps just one day festivals. But what about camping festivals with unhygienic facilities. I’ve never been one for camping anyway but does this change the dynamic of anything at all. And surely outdoor concerts will be allowed before indoor concerts.

Summer 2021 could certainly be very relaxed. What I wonder though is will we have to square up again for winter 2021 if there’s potential that people’s immunity from vaccines starts to fade or a mutation comes into the country and we could see another surge. There are always questions which are going to be impossible to answer it’s just in my head I know vaccines are a huge help back to reality and I’m so grateful for that but I think mentally I need to prepare myself for a sudden change in the tide which could happen at any point that this virus is still circulating the world.

[zahidf]

3 minutes ago, FestivalJamie said:

I have so many questions that no one on here would be able to answer but they just whir around my head.

For example, once the “vulnerable” are vaccinated, what happens to test and trace. If restrictions are ditched, surely test and trace is ditched. Then we could see more cases than ever among a younger population. I’m not sure I would personally want to subject myself to a mass style infection where they just let it spread. There’s also a lot of younger people who have existing health problems and where do they fit in the rollout timetable and how will we ensure these people are protected if we drop all restrictions? There’s also a lot of aged 50+ who are vulnerable to the disease and there’s also the issue of long covid which I think about 5% of people suffer with post disease (I know people have said this isn’t enough to continue restrictions and I’m not arguing for that but I’m just wondering what happens if they allow a free for all of back to normal).

Probably keep some element of test and trace going

Its an ongoing vaccination programme going. The aim would be past April that anyone will be able to get vaccinated who wants one. 

[Fuzzy Afro]

4 minutes ago, FestivalJamie said:

I have so many questions that no one on here would be able to answer but they just whir around my head.

For example, once the “vulnerable” are vaccinated, what happens to test and trace. If restrictions are ditched, surely test and trace is ditched. Then we could see more cases than ever among a younger population. I’m not sure I would personally want to subject myself to a mass style infection where they just let it spread. There’s also a lot of younger people who have existing health problems and where do they fit in the rollout timetable and how will we ensure these people are protected if we drop all restrictions? There’s also a lot of aged 50+ who are vulnerable to the disease and there’s also the issue of long covid which I think about 5% of people suffer with post disease (I know people have said this isn’t enough to continue restrictions and I’m not arguing for that but I’m just wondering what happens if they allow a free for all of back to normal).

Restrictions won’t be “ditched”, they’ll just be rolled back. So instead of a household mixing ban, you might have the rule of 6 replaced with the rule of 10/12. The 1m rule and T&T and hand washing and masks would still be in place.

 

It won’t be a free for all, it just won’t be nearly as strict as it is today.