Will Coronavirus lead to the cancellation of Glastonbury?

[oneeye]

Just now, The Nal said:

Agree yeah. People should be wondering what to do when Diana Ross inevitably cancels. 

Get this lady booked I reckon  

 

[Breeze]

1 minute ago, Deaf Nobby Burton said:

It has nothing to do with competence, we do not have anywhere near the resources or capability to do what China have done. Not to mention all China are doing is suppressing it, the virus is still there and as soon as they lift their measures it will spread again.

We cannot eradicate the virus now, that is impossible.

We could do as China are doing and suppress it, but this would be temporary and it would spread again the moment the measures are lifted.

All we can do is control the speed it spreads, and try to balance the strain on the health service, the economy and making sure it doesn’t spill into next winter all together as best as possible. As it stands I think we are doing that quite well at the moment 

We have the resources of Singapore, Hong Kong, Japan, South Korea and all the European countries taking a different approach.

Obviously agree on controlling the speed it spreads as being the primary aim now, as containment has failed. That is the point of going to delay phase. The question is what to do, and how much it will slow it. Currently some measures are being taken but they are not as aggressive as being taken elsewhere. Those measures obviously slow infection. The reasoning given for not slowing it more seems very vague, at best they are not being transparent with their modelling, at worst they are hiding what they think will happen with their current strategy. 
 

 

 

[The Nal]

2 minutes ago, oneeye said:

Get this lady booked I reckon  

Also works for CPR!

 

[eFestivals]

3 minutes ago, northernringo said:

Testing disparity across nations will really impact figures so the value from my updates probably isn't what it was at the start. For the UK only figures though we can see how many daily tests return positive which should give us some insight.

they've probably got enough data to be able to work from now on on hospital admissions

[Deaf Nobby Burton]

Just now, steviewevie said:

They want to delay and slow it...at moment it is following same path as Italy.

I expect they will start introducing more radical social distancing stuff in coming weeks.

Worst of it could be May/June...I'd give Glastonbury 50/50 at moment.

It’s not following the same path as Italy though, that’s a confusing point to make

Viruses spread exponentially, so in actual fact they all spread the same way, but we’re getting further away from Italy. They are now saying we are four weeks behind them when not long ago it was two.

[eFestivals]

Just now, Breeze said:

We have the resources of Singapore, Hong Kong, Japan, South Korea and all the European countries taking a different approach.

what happens with that different approach when they try to revert back to normal society? They get another outbreak and they have to do another lock-down.

And ultimately they'll still end up with a similar proportion getting the virus as will happen from the UK's approach

 

[Ayrshire Chris]

1 minute ago, Deaf Nobby Burton said:

It’s not following the same path as Italy though, that’s a confusing point to make

Viruses spread exponentially, so in actual fact they all spread the same way, but we’re getting further away from Italy. They are now saying we are four weeks behind them when not long ago it was two.

It’s ironic that Italy is the worst in Europe for the virus and what are people stockpiling in the U.K.? Pasta, their national dish! 

[Deaf Nobby Burton]

6 minutes ago, Breeze said:

We have the resources of Singapore, Hong Kong, Japan, South Korea and all the European countries taking a different approach.

Obviously agree on controlling the speed it spreads as being the primary aim now, as containment has failed. That is the point of going to delay phase. The question is what to do, and how much it will slow it. Currently some measures are being taken but they are not as aggressive as being taken elsewhere. Those measures obviously slow infection. The reasoning given for not slowing it more seems very vague, at best they are not being transparent with their modelling, at worst they are hiding what they think will happen with their current strategy. 
 

 

 

But every country will have different priorities when it comes to balancing several different things, there will be trade offs with every strategy. No one country has the same healthcare service, economy, social makeup etc etc.

Italy had deaths from the virus before they even knew they had the virus. They had to approach it completely differently because of this. We caught it much earlier and thus have more choice in how we tackle it. We shouldn’t just be doing what other countries are doing for the sole reason that they are doing it.

Edited March 13, 2020 by Deaf Nobby Burton

[Avalon_Fields]

The government is following the expert medical and scientific advice. who disagrees with that?

[eFestivals]

Just now, Avalon_Fields said:

The government is following the expert medical and scientific advice. who disagrees with that?

Not me.

We've yet to find out how good that advice really is, but I'd much rather go with that advice than having the likes of Trump making it up out of nothing.

[Breeze]

5 minutes ago, Pipine said:

I actually think he does fully support it, I talked it through with the epidemiologists in the team and they agree its the right approach, we need to use the more extreme measures when they'll be most effective, they can't be maintained for long and also we need the majority of the population to get the mild version of the illness so we're not just storing it up for episode two at a later date.  

'Mild version'? I thought there was only one version, some get it mild (e.g. children), some severe? The suggestions of significant mutation (thus far) have been debunked, I thought. It could, of course, come back at us in a much more virulent form but that would require significant mutation that may well mean those that had it before had limited immunity anyway.
 

[Breeze]

17 minutes ago, Deaf Nobby Burton said:

based on all their modelling Glastonbury may just be an event amongst others that they actually would rather went ahead to help the virus spread at a certain speed 

This is a good one. I'd get on to Emily with that. Top angle she can present to government.

[steviewevie]

11 minutes ago, Deaf Nobby Burton said:

It’s not following the same path as Italy though, that’s a confusing point to make

Viruses spread exponentially, so in actual fact they all spread the same way, but we’re getting further away from Italy. They are now saying we are four weeks behind them when not long ago it was two.

[Madyaker]

4 minutes ago, Avalon_Fields said:

The government is following the expert medical and scientific advice. who disagrees with that?

I’m not sure why the UK gov are getting so much stick here. They have adopted the same approach as every other European country. 

[Pipine]

Just now, Breeze said:

'Mild version'? I thought there was only one version, some get it mild (e.g. children), some severe? The suggestions of significant mutation (thus far) have been debunked, I thought. It could, of course, come back at us in a much more virulent form but that would require significant mutation that may well mean those that had it before had limited immunity anyway.
 

Sorry, poor wording on my part, the chief scientific officer said most people get a mild illness but in at risk groups such as older people a different immune response is triggered and a worse illness ensues..   Its better for the majority of society who aren't in the at risk group to get it so that the population as a whole builds up immunity.

[stuartbert two hats]

1 minute ago, Breeze said:

'Mild version'? I thought there was only one version, some get it mild (e.g. children), some severe? The suggestions of significant mutation (thus far) have been debunked, I thought. It could, of course, come back at us in a much more virulent form but that would require significant mutation that may well mean those that had it before had limited immunity anyway.
 

As far as I'm aware two "strains" have been identified - one is more deadly*, but less contagious and the other is more contagious, but less deadly*. 

*This link has some information, which says that my statement above about the relative deadliness is unconfirmed, but is it just over a week old, so I'm not sure if I'm working off newer information (I read and watch so much, it's hard to keep track of it all)

https://www.newscientist.com/article/2236544-coronavirus-are-there-two-strains-and-is-one-more-deadly/

[Jack.194]

Is the general consensus that Glastonbury going ahead (while obviously uncertain) is about 50/50 atm?

I though Emily’s wording yesterday seemed particularly negative.

[eFestivals]

1 minute ago, Jack.194 said:

Is the general consensus that Glastonbury going ahead (while obviously uncertain) is about 50/50 atm?

I'm feeling more positive about it today than I was yesterday. I can see it going ahead with something like a "not advised for the over-60s or those with health issues" warning.

As mentioned above, it's beneficial to have the virus infect younger people as a way of keeping it away from older people. Festivals are a way that might actually help the govt with what they're aiming at.

[Homer]

23 minutes ago, The Nal said:

Agree yeah. People should be wondering what to do when Diana Ross inevitably cancels. 

Could Foals step into the legends slot?

[Deaf Nobby Burton]

8 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

Again, what you’ve posted is completely misleading. All that does is plot our number of cases on chart and shows how many days before we reach the point that Italy are at now.

That in itself is completely meaningless if it took Italy half the time to get from the point we are at now to the point they are at now.

The chart I’ve attached shows the reality of our situation vs Italy, not simply the amount of time before we get to where they are which doesn’t actually mean anything.

Bear in mind our situation is a lot better than theirs without having implemented any drastic quarantine measures.

 

Edited March 13, 2020 by Deaf Nobby Burton

[Ayrshire Chris]

28 minutes ago, The Nal said:

Agree yeah. People should be wondering what to do when Diana Ross inevitably cancels. 

Chris Martin already rehearsing chain reaction

[HattersBoy]

This is doing the rounds, seems sensible but then again I'm no doctor. Regarding the paragraph in red I do recommend swapping water for your favourite alcoholic beverage, it is known that the virus is killed by alcohol.

 

From a member of the Stanford hospital board.

This is their feedback for now on Corona virus:

 

The new Coronavirus may not show sign of infection for many days. How can one know if he/she is infected?

By the time they have fever and/or cough and go to the hospital, the lung is usually 50% Fibrosis and it's too late.

Taiwan experts provide a simple self-check that we can do every morning.

Take a deep breath and hold your breath for more than 10 seconds.

If you complete it successfully without coughing, without discomfort, stiffness or tightness, etc., it proves there is no Fibrosis in the lungs, basically indicates no infection.

In critical time, please self-check every morning in an environment with clean air.

Serious excellent advice by Japanese doctors treating COVID-19 cases:

 

Everyone should ensure:

— your mouth & throat are moist, never dry. Take a few sips of water every 15 minutes at least. Why? Even if the virus gets into your mouth, drinking water or other liquids will wash them down through your throat and into the stomach. Once there, your stomach acid will kill all the virus. If you don't drink enough water more regularly, the virus can enter your windpipe and into the lungs. That's very dangerous.

 

IMPORTANT ANNOUNCEMENT - CORONAVIRUS 1. If you have a runny nose and sputum, you have a common cold 2. Coronavirus pneumonia is a dry cough with no runny nose.

3. This new virus is not heat-resistant and will be killed by a temperature of just 26/27 degrees. It hates the Sun.

4. If someone sneezes with it, it takes about 10 feet before it drops to the ground and is no longer airborne.

5. If it drops on a metal surface it will live for at least 12 hours - so if you come into contact with any metal surface - wash your hands as soon as you can with a bacterial soap.

6. On fabric it can survive for 6-12 hours. normal laundry detergent will kill it.

7. Drinking warm water is effective for all viruses. Try not to drink liquids with ice.

8. Wash your hands frequently as the virus can only live on your hands for 5-10 minutes, but - a lot can happen during that time - you can rub your eyes, pick your nose unwittingly and so on. 9. You should also gargle as a prevention. A simple solution of salt in warm water will suffice. 10. Can't emphasis enough - drink plenty of water!

 

THE SYMPTOMS

1. It will first infect the throat, so you'll have a sore throat lasting 3/4 days 2. The virus then blends into a nasal fluid that enters the trachea and then the lungs, causing pneumonia. This takes about 5/6 days further.

3. With the pneumonia comes high fever and difficulty in breathing.

4. The nasal congestion is not like the normal kind. You feel like you're drowning. It's imperative you then seek immediate attention.

 

 

[Deaf Nobby Burton]

3 minutes ago, eFestivals said:

I'm feeling more positive about it today than I was yesterday. I can see it going ahead with something like a "not advised for the over-60s or those with health issues" warning.

As mentioned above, it's beneficial to have the virus infect younger people as a way of keeping it away from older people. Festivals are a way that might actually help the govt with what they're aiming at.

That’s exactly where I’m at without at the moment and I actually think it makes perfect sense.

If you’re at risk stay away, if you’ve got symptoms stay away and self isolate. In theory nobody should be at Glastonbury that is at risk of dying from it, knowingly has it or has symptoms. Any spread will be between people that can handle it and ideally should be getting it anyway at some point.

This will open up another argument again and send us back round in a loop... if Glastonbury wasn’t on and we were all in quarantine then the people who spread it at Glastonbury couldn’t have done so.

But quarantine/lockdown is a temporary measure that puts a lid on it only temporarily, once lifted it then sparks up again and what would’ve happed at Glastonbury happens anyway later on.

[Avalon_Fields]

Premier League suspended (Unsurprisingly)

[Tuna]

13 minutes ago, Deaf Nobby Burton said:

Again, what you’ve posted is completely misleading.

The normalisation on the y axis for t=0 isn't misleading?