Weather 2016

[Finding leto14]

What are you on about? The surface has standing water and will be soggy. It's not even the festival yet. The festival is predicting dry and sunny spells by majority of forecasters. It will be nothing like 2007. It will dry up by Friday worst case scenario.

[Keithy]

BBC weather has just shown a brutal band of rain sweeping through on sun pm/mon am so think Glastonbury is going to get another drenching.

[SwedgeAntilles]

6 minutes ago, Finding leto14 said:

What are you on about? The surface has standing water and will be soggy. It's not even the festival yet. The festival is predicting dry and sunny spells by majority of forecasters. It will be nothing like 2007. It will dry up by Friday worst case scenario.

I wish that was 'worst case scenario'

[eFestivals]

2 minutes ago, mooro said:

This worries me greatly.  No matter how good Glastonbury is,  a relatively dry one in which you can be mobile is better than one in which you cannot. 

yeah, tho there's two different immobilisers - the mud, and rain falling from the sky that you want to hide from.

I'm not thinking we'll get barely any rain, I'm thinking a decent downpour most days - but for an hour or two, and then dry and relatively warm. As far as it goes, there'll have been worse.

[BenLFC]

51 minutes ago, eFestivals said:

If Pilton has had the same rain as Bristol, there's been about 10-60mm each day for the last 2 weeks, with a LOT of heavy stuff in the last 4 days. On Wednesday I reckon we got 40mm in about 30 minutes.

(I live in a dip, and was concerned enough of flash flooding [which hasn't happened yet] to drive my campervan up the hill, just in case ... the drains were still working, but the water was washing over the top of the kerbs)

If that smaller forecast rain for next week happens, it'll probably be enough to mudbath things because the ground is already so wet.

But that smaller forecast rain isn't actually what's likely, that's merely the average over a wide area. What's likely to come if it comes over Pilton are thunderstorms with heavy rain ... and then it's just luck for if one of those hits. I don't think it's likely that luck will hold over 6 days.

The last thing I want is a bad one, but my thoughts are this will be one of the bad years for mud.

40mm in 30 minutes?! Who is God trying to smite? 

I'm keeping blind faith. I'm looking at charts and graphs showing weather related things and I have no idea what they mean. I'm checking five different weather sites and trying to take an average. I keep checking the webcam to see if I can see standing water. I've become obsessed. I need help. 

[jparx]

Between now and the festival, BBC is showing a load of rain Sunday night, but other than that it's dry between now and Wednesday. It would be better if that weather came today so we had longer to dry. 

But honestly, the forecasts are mainly looking good for the festival itself. I'll took mud underfoot if it means we'll have decent weather for the festival. 

[Spindles]

2 minutes ago, eFestivals said:

yeah, tho there's two different immobilisers - the mud, and rain falling from the sky that you want to hide from.

I'm not thinking we'll get barely any rain, I'm thinking a decent downpour most days - but for an hour or two, and then dry and relatively warm. As far as it goes, there'll have been worse.

2011 style, early morning showers, brighter afternoons.  Worst of it done by Thurs, only the ground to contend with really.  I doubt we'll get rained on TOO much.

[Wooderson]

2007 was fucking 'orrible. 

[jparx]

Norwegian's are showing rain Friday morning, but that's it. I'd take that all day long tbh, especially since the temperatures seem to be going up slightly.

[Spindles]

Just now, Wooderson said:

2007 was fucking 'orrible. 

It's not going to be that bad.  That was constant rain on waterlogged ground, this will just be waterlogged ground.  After the band of rain that's coming we have fairly clear skies.  

[Ohinever]

I fear our boss here might be right.  This was yesterday.  No way if it's getting hit again Sunday/Monday it's going to take Wednesdays mayhem.... 

[FuzzyDunlop]

As horrible as the ground looks, the water can clear remarkably quickly. 2011 was pretty "dry" by sunday afternoon. That's with 120,000+ churning the ground up.

Im not saying there wont be a few spots of problems, but if we get a few dry days before Wednesday - Im hopeful it wont be that bad across the site

[watsonjm]

Just now, FuzzyDunlop said:

As horrible as the ground looks, the water can clear remarkably quickly. 2011 was pretty "dry" by sunday afternoon. That's with 120,000+ churning the ground up.

Im not saying there wont be a few spots of problems, but if we get a few dry days before Wednesday - Im hopeful it wont be that bad across the site

This is about where I'm at. Lost my wellies so thinking of grabbing a cheap pair just in case. 

[eFestivals]

4 minutes ago, FuzzyDunlop said:

As horrible as the ground looks, the water can clear remarkably quickly. 2011 was pretty "dry" by sunday afternoon. That's with 120,000+ churning the ground up.

there was nothing like the same amount of rain beforehand as there's been this year. It won't go the same way with the same amount of rain.

 

[Finding leto14]

That forecast though  I would rather have a bit of mud and belting sun conpared to dry ground to start with but the conditions we experienced the last couple of days.

[Mr.Tease]

2 hours ago, stuartbert two hats said:

If this dry weather comes off,  it's the closest call I can remember in 22 years of festival watching. Extraordinary.

We had the opposite a year or two ago (I think 2014)- remember when it was baking sunshine for the weeks leading up to the festival, then on the Wednesday the weather started breaking down and went cool and rainy for the festival, then went back to being hot and baking from the Monday onwards- we're owed!

[MEGABOWL]

10 hours ago, Mr.Tease said:

Did you honestly expect anything else? 

Haha, no. I'm used to this thread. Every year its an incomparable and heady brew of science, people attempting some sort of reverse psychology, people trying to wind others up and people on a genuine panic/relief cycle.

 

Funny thing is the vast majority of punters will probably check the weather forecast on Tuesday and get on with it from there, oblivious to the hysteria here....

[Lucyjane83]

16 minutes ago, FuzzyDunlop said:

As horrible as the ground looks, the water can clear remarkably quickly. 2011 was pretty "dry" by sunday afternoon. That's with 120,000+ churning the ground up.

Im not saying there wont be a few spots of problems, but if we get a few dry days before Wednesday - Im hopeful it wont be that bad across the site

This! I'm not panicking too much yet. 

[FuzzyDunlop]

9 minutes ago, eFestivals said:

there was nothing like the same amount of rain beforehand as there's been this year. It won't go the same way with the same amount of rain.

 

I didnt do 2005, but wasn't a lot of ground ok by sunday? I'll have to bow to your greater knowledge here.

Im thinking (maybe out of hope than expectation) there will be flash points, but we wont be as bad as people fear

[FloorFiller]

a welcome picture from somebody on site this morning

[JanieM28]

1 minute ago, FloorFiller said:

a welcome picture from somebody on site this morning

Now that's more like it!

[Lucyjane83]

3 minutes ago, FloorFiller said:

a welcome picture from somebody on site this morning

Looking good!

[Glasto Weatherwatch]

Same levels of flooding (probably worse) in 2005 and it was trainers on Sunday. 

 

If there's no more significant rainfall before the festival and the weather is decent over the weekend, it'll be absolutely fine. 

 

If there's one big downpour over the festival, then we're looking at shitsville.

 

But if someone had offered this scenario, with these forecasts, a month ago I would have ripped their arm off. 

[jparx]

8 minutes ago, FloorFiller said:

a welcome picture from somebody on site this morning

Fucking-A. 

[CaledonianGonzo]

19 minutes ago, eFestivals said:

there was nothing like the same amount of rain beforehand as there's been this year. It won't go the same way with the same amount of rain.

 

In terms of the past couple of days,  no.

But in terms of the last few weeks / months,  I'm not sure.

And it's the latter that affects the water table.