Weather 2016

[BambooShanks]

Don't the majority of the flooded areas have high vehicle traffic at the moment? Surely that would churn it up  and make it look much worse than it is?

[Lucyjane83]

57 minutes ago, jimmillen said:

To put all this doom & gloom in context... 

Yeovilton (The nearest weather station to the festival) has recorded ~ 38mm of rainfall this month so far.  Most of that has been in the past week, hence the apocalyptic photos & videos we've been sh1tting ourselves over.

However, there simply wasn't much heavy, continuous rain before last Sunday.  Before the downpours on the 12th, in fact there was only ~14mm of rain in the entire 4 weeks preceding that - about the same as fell in one day on the 14th.  So I reckon any talk of the ground being soaked is way off the mark.  

Yes, there's a lot of surface water, but if this drainage system is up to scratch, that should be got rid of pretty quick. 

And as for people comparing this to the proper mudbath years - a quick look at the rainfall history shows:

June '97 - 71.4 mm

June '98 - 90.9 mm

June '05 - 112.9 mm

June '07 - 102.8 mm

As above, we've had 37mm so far this June, mostly in the last week.  Current forecasts really don't look like delivering anything like the same rain we've seen over the past week, and in fact look pretty reasonable.   

To me this makes a repeat of any of the years above pretty unlikely - not even taking the current drainage system into account.

It certainly ain't going to be dry, and there damn sure will be some mud.  But IMO it's not looking like full on mudbath territory by any stretch! 

I can't upvote you, so just 

[JoBalls]

I live not too far from what is statistically the driest point in the country, and it is squelchy underfoot in my garden this evening. Snails everywhere.

I'm sure this is just the bad weather getting itself out of the way before next week.

[Stretlow]

28 minutes ago, JoBalls said:

I live not too far from what is statistically the driest point in the country, and it is squelchy underfoot in my garden this evening. Snails everywhere.

I'm sure this is just the bad weather getting itself out of the way before next week.

Boooo to you joBalls. Boooo indeed.

[Clatters]

I live in Abu Dhabi. I haven't seen rain for months and months. I'm therefore 'managing my expectations' and expecting it to be a little, ahem, damper than what I'm used to!

[CaledonianGonzo]

3 hours ago, Kinkyinuit said:

Don't the majority of the flooded areas have high vehicle traffic at the moment? Surely that would churn it up  and make it look much worse than it is?

Yes - but in the main these are roadways with shallow soil, a lot of which aren't even accessible to the public.

It's the grass getting fucked that's the biggest worry.

[stuartbert two hats]

1 hour ago, CaledonianGonzo said:

Yes - but in the main these are roadways with shallow soil, a lot of which aren't even accessible to the public.

It's the grass getting fucked that's the biggest worry.

Rain alone doesn't fuck the grass. It's only rain+ walking that fucks the grass and nobody is walking on most of the grass.

[CaledonianGonzo]

Indeed.  

We've avoided a disaster, not been subjected to one.

[stuartbert two hats]

If this dry weather comes off,  it's the closest call I can remember in 22 years of festival watching. Extraordinary.

[morph100]

3 minutes ago, stuartbert two hats said:

If this dry weather comes off,  it's the closest call I can remember in 22 years of festival watching. Extraordinary.

It's like a beautiful miracle, Eavis is Jesus

[stopwn1981]

Quote from one of the guys on netweather forum this morning - first signs of the blessed finger? - "Thereafter the Azores ridge edges in, which would be good news for Glastonbury, before the N/S split at the weekend with LP to the NW and HP to the SW."

 

[slipmatt]

Crickey woke up at 6.30 with the little one and first thing I did was check this thread! Morning lovely people. I have total and utter faith it will be glorious

[Larraht]

Glastonbury, I love you...but you're freaking me out.

I go away from this thread for one evening and come back to all these pictures of the ocean? What is going on? And then...now we're back on the steep climb to Azores finger? My heart can't take it!

Is there any hope at all at this stage of being able to sit down over the weekend? 

Edited June 18, 2016 by Larraht
Too early for grammar

[Henrik]

All the forecasts are looking pretty damn good this morning.

I'm starting to feel like we have dodged a bullet.

 

[stuartbert two hats]

16 minutes ago, Larraht said:

Glastonbury, I love you...but you're freaking me out.

I go away from this thread for one evening and come back to all these pictures of the ocean? What is going on? And then...now we're back on the steep climb to Azores finger? My heart can't take it!

Is there any hope at all at this stage of being able to sit down over the weekend? 

Course there is :

 

[Skoo]

Not looking bad at all this morning.

[eFestivals]

13 hours ago, CaledonianGonzo said:

There was weeks of rain in the lead up to 2011, but as soon as the rain stopped I'd say it was about a 36 hour dry out time.

Current forecasts have rain every day.

The first bit of rain will (at least) churn it. The second will make it a muddy pool.

We might get lucky because the forecasts are improving, but as the site pics showed last night with floods everywhere the ground doesn't have the capacity to take any more rain, and a couple of days of dryness makes not a lot of difference when the soil is like it is.

[stopwn1981]

3 minutes ago, eFestivals said:

Current forecasts have rain every day.

The first bit of rain will (at least) churn it. The second will make it a muddy pool.

We might get lucky because the forecasts are improving, but as the site pics showed last night with floods everywhere the ground doesn't have the capacity to take any more rain, and a couple of days of dryness makes not a lot of difference when the soil is like it is.

All that water will only make the grass greener.

[BenLFC]

4 minutes ago, eFestivals said:

Current forecasts have rain every day.

The first bit of rain will (at least) churn it. The second will make it a muddy pool.

We might get lucky because the forecasts are improving, but as the site pics showed last night with floods everywhere the ground doesn't have the capacity to take any more rain, and a couple of days of dryness makes not a lot of difference when the soil is like it is.

Only a couple of mm in the next week. No way near the 40mm that's fell in the last week. 

[6t6o6m]

The problem is clay is non pervious, with dry clay being the worst hence why it takes time to drain hence the flooding after heavy rainfalls. Due to the relatively dry nature of April and May, the ground has firmed up. If we avoid heavy out pours next week, we should be fine. 

[Deaf Nobby Burton]

It's rained just about every day where I live for about the last 10 days with thunderstorms etc, but my lawn isn't squelchy it's still quite dry and hard in places, so I don't know what to think.

[Avalon_Fields]

The BBC still forecasting a mainly rain free festival...

Having said that, they were forecasting heavy rain showers for 3 hours up to and including into a 3 hour period in a precise London location yesterday, and we got a few spots of rain and that was it.

 

[eFestivals]

1 minute ago, BenLFC said:

Only a couple of mm in the next week. No way near the 40mm that's fell in the last week. 

If Pilton has had the same rain as Bristol, there's been about 10-60mm each day for the last 2 weeks, with a LOT of heavy stuff in the last 4 days. On Wednesday I reckon we got 40mm in about 30 minutes.

(I live in a dip, and was concerned enough of flash flooding [which hasn't happened yet] to drive my campervan up the hill, just in case ... the drains were still working, but the water was washing over the top of the kerbs)

If that smaller forecast rain for next week happens, it'll probably be enough to mudbath things because the ground is already so wet.

But that smaller forecast rain isn't actually what's likely, that's merely the average over a wide area. What's likely to come if it comes over Pilton are thunderstorms with heavy rain ... and then it's just luck for if one of those hits. I don't think it's likely that luck will hold over 6 days.

The last thing I want is a bad one, but my thoughts are this will be one of the bad years for mud.

[brettredmayne]

14 minutes ago, eFestivals said:

Current forecasts have rain every day.

The first bit of rain will (at least) churn it. The second will make it a muddy pool.

We might get lucky because the forecasts are improving, but as the site pics showed last night with floods everywhere the ground doesn't have the capacity to take any more rain, and a couple of days of dryness makes not a lot of difference when the soil is like it is.

Has this account been taken over by @The Nal 

[jparx]

I liked it better when Neil wasn't in this thread