Weather 2016

[stopwn1981]

The webcam clearly shows that area by old JP which was underwater last night, is now not - it'll be reet. Need some onsite pics this morning!!

[slipmatt]

A lot more rain due Sunday into Monday before we hit the dry spell. Wellies on arrival, trainers by Thursday if we keep dry. Yay x

[donshakey]

He got Radiohead wrong so he's probably wrong on this too :-)

Edited June 18, 2016 by donshakey

[Deaf Nobby Burton]

If everybody tip-toes when we arrive then the ground won't get churned up... Or we could all tie toe tennis rackets to our shoes as if we are walking on snow, maybe that will help?

[stuartbert two hats]

5 minutes ago, 6t6o6m said:

The problem is clay is non pervious, with dry clay being the worst hence why it takes time to drain hence the flooding after heavy rainfalls. Due to the relatively dry nature of April and May, the ground has firmed up. If we avoid heavy out pours next week, we should be fine. 

10 or 20 years ago, I would  have agreed with you, non pervious soil was a problem. Now the drainage is in place, the soil is an asset. I'd prefer the rain to run off and go down the drain rather than soak through the soil.

Look at the webcam, the floods are gone. It's gonna be a dust bowl I tell ya!

[Deaf Nobby Burton]

The site looks like it's bathed in sunshine at the moment, result!

[Spindles]

1 hour ago, stuartbert two hats said:

Rain alone doesn't fuck the grass. It's only rain+ walking that fucks the grass and nobody is walking on most of the grass.

Amen

1 hour ago, stuartbert two hats said:

If this dry weather comes off,  it's the closest call I can remember in 22 years of festival watching. Extraordinary.

Please don't look at the current satellite imagery then.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/world-satellite/#?tab=satImg&map=regionalIR&fcTime=1466121600

I'd written a summary of what effect I believe this will have based on years of watching the imagery, but it was too depressing, look at the patterns on that animation and make up your own mind.  I'm packing trunks and a rubber ring.

[Splatt]

23 minutes ago, eFestivals said:

The last thing I want is a bad one, but my thoughts are this will be one of the bad years for mud.

The voice of reason I fear. There can be no way that further rain won't turn it into a muddy swamp. 

[bubbsio]

22 minutes ago, eFestivals said:

If Pilton has had the same rain as Bristol, there's been about 10-60mm each day for the last 2 weeks, with a LOT of heavy stuff in the last 4 days. On Wednesday I reckon we got 40mm in about 30 minutes.

(I live in a dip, and was concerned enough of flash flooding [which hasn't happened yet] to drive my campervan up the hill, just in case ... the drains were still working, but the water was washing over the top of the kerbs)

If that smaller forecast rain for next week happens, it'll probably be enough to mudbath things because the ground is already so wet.

But that smaller forecast rain isn't actually what's likely, that's merely the average over a wide area. What's likely to come if it comes over Pilton are thunderstorms with heavy rain ... and then it's just luck for if one of those hits. I don't think it's likely that luck will hold over 6 days.

The last thing I want is a bad one, but my thoughts are this will be one of the bad years for mud.

That rain has been massively hit and miss depending on location though. I was in Glastonbury on Saturday, few spots of rain, got into Street and the roads were awash. A mile outside Street and it was bone dry again. I don't think the ground is at capacity, I think we're getting these flash floods because of the lack of rain over the previous month and that mixed with intense showers isn't giving it time to soak straight into the ground. It really hasn't been that bad in this part of the world bar yesterday's direct hit.

 

For the record, it's a beautiful start to the day here so hopefully the site will get a good drying out. 

 

 

[stopwn1981]

3 minutes ago, Splatt said:

The voice of reason I fear. There can be no way that further rain won't turn it into a muddy swamp. 

Why? It's rained ridiculously all week and yesterday's episode caused flooding, which now appears to have subsided. Why would it not do exactly the same again, should it rain. Claims that the ground is 'saturated' are pure conjecture at present.

[Deaf Nobby Burton]

If the site is muddy beforehand they have time to prepare, there will be wood chippings on major thoroughfares etc, no harm in fearing the worst as anything else will be a result but I don't think it will be as bad as people are fearing.

[CaledonianGonzo]

I agree if there's rain every day between now and Wednesday then it's mud o'clock - but dpeending on which forecast you read there's only one substantial slashing to come on Sunday night, so the place still has 48 hours to dry out after that.  If nothing else horrific lands on the site, then there's no reason why it won't be firming up by Thursday.

[eFestivals]

32 minutes ago, brettredmayne said:

Has this account been taken over by @The Nal 

nope, it's been taken over by the voice of experience.

It's not the amount of rain that falls on the festival that decides whether it's a mudbath or not, it's the state of the ground before it rains - and the ground this year is in the worst state since 2007.

 

[JayP1983]

Can I just say who really cares? If it rains it rains, if it's dry it's dry. Pack for all eventualities.

Try going to T in The Park every year. Four seasons in one hour.

[CaledonianGonzo]

T in the Park was on an old airstrip so half the site was tarmac.  Worthy Farm is very, very different.

[Spindles]

I think that movement on site is critical now.  Obviously like 2011 this is going to effect the SE corner build again, and that area gets pretty churned up when it's wet.  People and kit are going to be moving around for the build, so that area is going to suffer and can't be avoided.  Main public areas are trackway and grass, so they aren't going to get churned up before the fest and the ground conditions on Wednesday are crucial to which way it goes.

I've never done a really muddy festival, I have no problem with joining the ranks of veterans who have.  All part of the experience.

[Ohinever]

No you can't, as evidenced on this thread there are a lot of people who do care. 

2007 was horrid,  bone soaking drudgery. I kept going in later years, but I know some regulars who never went again. 

[eFestivals]

8 minutes ago, bubbsio said:

That rain has been massively hit and miss depending on location though. I was in Glastonbury on Saturday, few spots of rain, got into Street and the roads were awash. A mile outside Street and it was bone dry again. I don't think the ground is at capacity, I think we're getting these flash floods because of the lack of rain over the previous month and that mixed with intense showers isn't giving it time to soak straight into the ground. It really hasn't been that bad in this part of the world bar yesterday's direct hit.

For the record, it's a beautiful start to the day here so hopefully the site will get a good drying out. 

it's been hit and miss for location at any time, but it's also the case that just about everywhere has been hit badly more than once. Worthy Farm certainly has been.

The ground is sodden. We've not had much in hot spells this year to help dry things (although we did have a reasonably dry spring), but the last couple of weeks have stuffed it.

9 minutes ago, stopwn1981 said:

Why? It's rained ridiculously all week and yesterday's episode caused flooding, which now appears to have subsided. Why would it not do exactly the same again, should it rain. Claims that the ground is 'saturated' are pure conjecture at present.

when feet are there to churn it, it'll churn quickly when it rains when the ground is already this wet.

 

[eFestivals]

2 minutes ago, mooro said:

 

2007 was horrid,  bone soaking drudgery. I kept going in later years, but I know some regulars who never went again. 

yep, it was. Horrid!

Tho, to be far, I'm not thinking it's going to be that bad. But I am thinking it'll be the worse one since then.

[JayP1983]

5 minutes ago, CaledonianGonzo said:

T in the Park was on an old airstrip so half the site was tarmac.  Worthy Farm is very, very different.

I would hardly say half the site was Tarmac tbh. not being rude but seems like a lot of people are worrying about the state of the site. It's an outdoor festival in Britain so just go with the flow.

 

 

[Glastonlocal]

Honestly, ye doom merchants. The ground is not THAT bad. We're in a valley - the water naturally drains away as soon as it stops raining. 

[Spindles]

It's going to happen, just be prepared for it I say.  

Just now, eFestivals said:

yep, it was. Horrid!

Tho, to be far, I'm not thinking it's going to be that bad. But I am thinking it'll be the worse one since then.

This.  Honestly?  I sort of look forward to the challenge.  I'll be surrounded by good folk and have been looking forward to this all year, a bit of slipping, sliding and sticky feet isn't going to spoil anything.

 

Just now, Glastonlocal said:

Honestly, ye doom merchants. The ground is not THAT bad. We're in a valley - the water naturally drains away as soon as it stops raining. 

More rain to come, no time to properly dry before the punters arrive and trash the place.  I've taken a turn for the Nal.

[Ohinever]

10 minutes ago, eFestivals said:

 

 

This worries me greatly.  No matter how good Glastonbury is,  a relatively dry one in which you can be mobile is better than one in which you cannot. 

[Deaf Nobby Burton]

I wasn't at 2007... But correct me if I'm wrong, 2007 was a washout i.e. Pissing down all the time throughout the fest?

So constant rain and mud? At this stage (which is now very close to the fest so getting more and more accurate) most of the forecasts are suggesting not a lot of rain during the festival itself, so we may have thick mud which is a pain, but not too much rain, so surely that's far far more preferable than 2007 which was constant mud AND constant rain?

[eFestivals]

2 minutes ago, Glastonlocal said:

Honestly, ye doom merchants. The ground is not THAT bad. We're in a valley - the water naturally drains away as soon as it stops raining. 

but on a clay soil drain dreadfully compared to other soils.

There's also a slower run off than many other places, because of the somerset levels.

 

Edited June 18, 2016 by eFestivals