The Weather Thread 2024

[Dave_c]

On 4/15/2024 at 10:45 AM, Mark E. Spliff said:

 

There has always been a lot of bollocks spoken about this on here. 

 

Exhibit 1: 'the water table...'  This has got f**k all to  do with a muddy Glastonbury - it's the level at which the ground is completely saturated which, in the UK, is typically 100 metres underground.  (If the muddy puddles in 2007 etc. were the water table poking above the ground, it would have been a truly apocalyptic situation for the farm and the festival-goers, and not just the miseryfest that it was.)

 

Exhibit 2: 'the drainage.'  This is just a set of localised infrastructure to get lots of water away from particular areas.  If it works well, the only effect it will have is reducing the huge lakes that build up in a few specific areas.  Drainage won't stop the mud, because soil will always become mud if you pour water on it and churn it up with vehicles and wellies, whether there's drainage nearby or not.

 

It's not complicated.  If the ground is still wet and slushy whilst the site is being built or the punters are on site, then it will be churned into mud.  As we've seen with previous muddy Glastonburys, it only takes two or three days of the right sort of weather (sun/heat/wind/low humidity) for even the most waterlogged ground to dry out.  This surface drying is a quick effect of the weather, but there's also a slower, constant drainage effect as the moisture works its way slowly down through the soil and eventually finds its way to the ground water.  This drainage of the deeper soil levels has got nothing to do with plants using up the moisture, as has been suggested elsewhere on here - it's just down to gravity and the permeability of the ground.

 

The only determinant of whether we get a muddy one is how wet the ground is in a very short window leading up to the ground being disturbed by vehicles and wellies.  If, as you're wondering, we continue with the levels of rain we've had for the rest of the year right up to the start of the festival, then it will be very muddy indeed.  However, it's more likely that as we move into summer, the rainfall levels will reduce sharply.  There is always the possibility that we get unlucky, e.g. a spell of heavy rain in the week before/during the festival, in which case we'll have a mudbath.  You need to check the forecasts mid June to decide whether to worry about that though.

 

Edit: The British Geological Survey website shows that, from the nearest wells to the festival site, the water table is between 30 and 60 metres deep in the area.

 

Get out of here with your facts, we need 300 pages of speculation and theories to decide if it's going to be muddy or not.

[gherkin8r]

On 4/15/2024 at 10:45 AM, Mark E. Spliff said:

 

There has always been a lot of bollocks spoken about this on here. 

 

Exhibit 1: 'the water table...'  This has got f**k all to  do with a muddy Glastonbury - it's the level at which the ground is completely saturated which, in the UK, is typically 100 metres underground.  (If the muddy puddles in 2007 etc. were the water table poking above the ground, it would have been a truly apocalyptic situation for the farm and the festival-goers, and not just the miseryfest that it was.)

 

Exhibit 2: 'the drainage.'  This is just a set of localised infrastructure to get lots of water away from particular areas.  If it works well, the only effect it will have is reducing the huge lakes that build up in a few specific areas.  Drainage won't stop the mud, because soil will always become mud if you pour water on it and churn it up with vehicles and wellies, whether there's drainage nearby or not.

 

It's not complicated.  If the ground is still wet and slushy whilst the site is being built or the punters are on site, then it will be churned into mud.  As we've seen with previous muddy Glastonburys, it only takes two or three days of the right sort of weather (sun/heat/wind/low humidity) for even the most waterlogged ground to dry out.  This surface drying is a quick effect of the weather, but there's also a slower, constant drainage effect as the moisture works its way slowly down through the soil and eventually finds its way to the ground water.  This drainage of the deeper soil levels has got nothing to do with plants using up the moisture, as has been suggested elsewhere on here - it's just down to gravity and the permeability of the ground.

 

The only determinant of whether we get a muddy one is how wet the ground is in a very short window leading up to the ground being disturbed by vehicles and wellies.  If, as you're wondering, we continue with the levels of rain we've had for the rest of the year right up to the start of the festival, then it will be very muddy indeed.  However, it's more likely that as we move into summer, the rainfall levels will reduce sharply.  There is always the possibility that we get unlucky, e.g. a spell of heavy rain in the week before/during the festival, in which case we'll have a mudbath.  You need to check the forecasts mid June to decide whether to worry about that though.

 

Edit: The British Geological Survey website shows that, from the nearest wells to the festival site, the water table is between 30 and 60 metres deep in the area.

 

Nary a mention of the ram jam jar or the Azores finger. And for that reason I'm out 

[Jay Pee]

1 hour ago, Dave_c said:

 

Get out of here with your facts, we need 300 pages of speculation and theories to decide if it's going to be muddy or not.

John Moncur.  Chatting sh*t about moisture levels keeps me moist...

[Crazyfool01]

1 hour ago, Dave_c said:

 

Get out of here with your facts, we need 300 pages of speculation and theories to decide if it's going to be muddy or not.

sadly a lack of fuzzy tennis balls around these parts this year though 

[pilton digger]

32 minutes ago, gherkin8r said:

 

Nary a mention of the ram jam jar 

You are not going to find the jar in this sciencey thread. All colouring and guesswork. Wait until June and we will see what unmittigated bollocks can be found in the State of The Ground.

[Jay Pee]

20 minutes ago, pilton digger said:

You are not going to find the jar in this sciencey thread. All colouring and guesswork. Wait until June and we will see what unmittigated bollocks can be found in the State of The Ground.

This! Its basically the Christmas rush of a 6 year old.

 

But in June. With a well. And a jar

[Ayrshire Chris]

Last week I walked up into the hills around my area, just after the rain had finally relented. it’s been a really wet winter and ground was boggy. We’ve just had three dry but cold days and some sunshine. Upon the same hills again this morning and ground solid, lambs everywhere and walking shoes mudless! Not worth worrying about the ground conditions yet but it is fun😊.  Meanwhile I climbed up these this morning as part of the Glasto fitness training!

[phillyfaddle]

7 minutes ago, Ayrshire Chris said:

I climbed up these this morning as part of the Glasto fitness training!

Training can never start too early 🥾🏃

[Bike_Like_A_Mum]

@Ayrshire Chrisalways love your walking photos. You live in the most beautiful place!

[Franky]

2010 All over again …. Woohoo

 

🌞🌞🌞🌞🌞🌞🌞🌞🌞🌞

[charlierc]

On 4/23/2024 at 5:31 PM, Dave_c said:

 

Get out of here with your facts, we need 300 pages of speculation and theories to decide if it's going to be muddy or not.

Only 212 to go.

[Ayrshire Chris]

Whisper it, but there’s a few predictions of high temperatures and long dry spells from mid May through to July. Also temperatures looking better towards the end of next week. Hopefully in time for the build to get really going.🤞😊

[Spindles]

I'm sick of the bloody cold, to be honest.  It feels like February has lasted 3 months.

[Ayrshire Chris]

5 minutes ago, Spindles said:

I'm sick of the bloody cold, to be honest.  It feels like February has lasted 3 months.

Yes, been dry here for four or five days now but yesterday morning had to scrape frost off the car, hopefully temperatures are on the rise now. 

[Jacko45]

On 4/28/2024 at 5:12 PM, Ayrshire Chris said:

Whisper it, but there’s a few predictions of high temperatures and long dry spells from mid May through to July. Also temperatures looking better towards the end of next week. Hopefully in time for the build to get really going.🤞😊

 

Were absolutely due a good summer, I can't remember a winter as miserable as this last one.

 

I swear its been winter for 18 months. 

[hodgey123]

On 4/28/2024 at 8:34 PM, Spindles said:

I'm sick of the bloody cold, to be honest.  It feels like February has lasted 3 months.

Well and truly sick of it. In Devon, it feels like it has rained every day since January except a brief spell of sunshine for a couple of days a couple of weeks ago. Seriously depressing stuff. 

[Drew3232]

I had a dream last night. Glastonbury this year was basically trench warfare. Get your coat. Get all your coats!

Edited April 30 by Drew3232

[Neil]

On 4/11/2024 at 7:16 PM, Not Dead Yet said:

Ground water levels are high but ground water levels do drop

not brilliantly on the famously poor-draining, clay soil, somerset levels.

[Henrik]

Honestly I have never known weather like this. Not had any proper sunshine since August last year. It has not stopped bloody raining. More torrential rain coming in today and tomorrow. The weekend and beyond was looking good but now we are showing rain every day.

 

The site must be absolutely soaked

[EavisAintDead]

1 hour ago, Henrik said:

Honestly I have never known weather like this. Not had any proper sunshine since August last year. It has not stopped bloody raining. More torrential rain coming in today and tomorrow. The weekend and beyond was looking good but now we are showing rain every day.

 

The site must be absolutely soaked

It's not that bad even though it rained again quite heavily 

 

Don't get me wrong, it's not pleasant but the ground has had enough drying over the last few weeks that it's not a bog any more

[Drew3232]

Me trying to kill El Nino before Glastonbury starts

[Franky]

1 hour ago, Drew3232 said:

Me trying to kill El Nino before Glastonbury starts

Out of upvotes! 👌

[Franky]

8 weeks

 

Plenty of time!

 

2010 All over again! Woohoo

[The Nal]

f**k!

 

During the longer range outlook period, there is a greater chance of unsettled weather returning, especially across the south. This means that spells of wet weather are likely for most, notably across southern or central areas, 

 

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/long-range-forecast

[kemosabe]

1 minute ago, The Nal said:

f**k!

 

During the longer range outlook period, there is a greater chance of unsettled weather returning, especially across the south. This means that spells of wet weather are likely for most, notably across southern or central areas, 

 

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/long-range-forecast

 

How can it return? It's never left....