The Weather Thread 2024

[DareToDibble]

8 hours ago, Sheffield Steve said:

8 of the major meteorological agencies around the world have released their temperature forecasts for June. All 8 have gone for a warmer than average June in the Glastonbury area, some considerably so. Given the effect global warming has had on the climate and the temperature records that have been broken over the last year, that’s no real surprise, but nice to see such consistency nonetheless.

 

Now we’re talking.

[kemosabe]

On 4/13/2024 at 8:21 AM, rubenz said:

Was thinking about this recently and how it hasn't stopped raining since last July! The ground must be mega saturated. 

There must be many new glasto goers from the last few years who have never experienced the joys of a wet and muddy one!

Hypothetically if the weather doesn't change for the better, and we continue with a rainy weather for the next few months (I appreciate that is very pessimistic, but climate change is pretty wild and it's tipping it down again where I am right now so I'm hardly feeling sunny) right up to the festival. Just how muddy will it be? 

They've put in drainage since 2016, so you'd normally say it won't be 2005 levels. But this has to be some of the most saturated the ground has ever been. Would even a light rain during the festival lead to a mud bath if the water table is as high as it is currently? 
 

Edited April 15 by kemosabe

[EavisAintDead]

Way too much talk of saturated soil in this chat - after a solid few days of sunshine and good wind the ground has dried up nicely here in Glastonbury - Even a bit of a rainstorm this morning hasn't had much of an impact. Looks like we're going to have a full week of dry weather now and hopefully lots more to come! 

 

It's going to be fine.  

[clarkete]

Despite the recent rains, the field at the end of my road is surprisingly dry, pretty hard in many parts.

 

Yesterday was lovely all day, this morning before I got up could hear it chucking down, somewhat surprised now to see that outside the sun is out, blossom gently blowing in the breeze, ground is dry.

 

 

[Mark E. Spliff]

53 minutes ago, kemosabe said:

Hypothetically if the weather doesn't change for the better, and we continue with a rainy weather for the next few months (I appreciate that is very pessimistic, but climate change is pretty wild and it's tipping it down again where I am right now so I'm hardly feeling sunny) right up to the festival. Just how muddy will it be? 

They've put in drainage since 2016, so you'd normally say it won't be 2005 levels. But this has to be some of the most saturated the ground has ever been. Would even a light rain during the festival lead to a mud bath if the water table is as high as it is currently? 
 

 

There has always been a lot of bollocks spoken about this on here. 

 

Exhibit 1: 'the water table...'  This has got f**k all to  do with a muddy Glastonbury - it's the level at which the ground is completely saturated which, in the UK, is typically 100 metres underground.  (If the muddy puddles in 2007 etc. were the water table poking above the ground, it would have been a truly apocalyptic situation for the farm and the festival-goers, and not just the miseryfest that it was.)

 

Exhibit 2: 'the drainage.'  This is just a set of localised infrastructure to get lots of water away from particular areas.  If it works well, the only effect it will have is reducing the huge lakes that build up in a few specific areas.  Drainage won't stop the mud, because soil will always become mud if you pour water on it and churn it up with vehicles and wellies, whether there's drainage nearby or not.

 

It's not complicated.  If the ground is still wet and slushy whilst the site is being built or the punters are on site, then it will be churned into mud.  As we've seen with previous muddy Glastonburys, it only takes two or three days of the right sort of weather (sun/heat/wind/low humidity) for even the most waterlogged ground to dry out.  This surface drying is a quick effect of the weather, but there's also a slower, constant drainage effect as the moisture works its way slowly down through the soil and eventually finds its way to the ground water.  This drainage of the deeper soil levels has got nothing to do with plants using up the moisture, as has been suggested elsewhere on here - it's just down to gravity and the permeability of the ground.

 

The only determinant of whether we get a muddy one is how wet the ground is in a very short window leading up to the ground being disturbed by vehicles and wellies.  If, as you're wondering, we continue with the levels of rain we've had for the rest of the year right up to the start of the festival, then it will be very muddy indeed.  However, it's more likely that as we move into summer, the rainfall levels will reduce sharply.  There is always the possibility that we get unlucky, e.g. a spell of heavy rain in the week before/during the festival, in which case we'll have a mudbath.  You need to check the forecasts mid June to decide whether to worry about that though.

 

Edit: The British Geological Survey website shows that, from the nearest wells to the festival site, the water table is between 30 and 60 metres deep in the area.

Edited April 15 by Mark E. Spliff

[Franky]

1 hour ago, kemosabe said:

Hypothetically if the weather doesn't change for the better, and we continue with a rainy weather for the next few months (I appreciate that is very pessimistic, but climate change is pretty wild and it's tipping it down again where I am right now so I'm hardly feeling sunny) right up to the festival. Just how muddy will it be? 

They've put in drainage since 2016, so you'd normally say it won't be 2005 levels. But this has to be some of the most saturated the ground has ever been. Would even a light rain during the festival lead to a mud bath if the water table is as high as it is currently? 
 

A lot of depends on the time of rain and how many people are moving about the site tbh. 
 

A little rain but a lot of people and that can f**k it, a lot of rain for a few hours but no people say 0300/0500 may not damage it. 
 

sooooo many factors. 

[Robofish]

Oh I love the weather, and the weather thread. Saturday in South London was so lovely I contemplated getting a ticket for Bearded Theory. Today it’s so awful I’m considering not ever leaving the house again. 

[AdrianH]

Low 20s with cloud/sun please! - I personally find a scorcher as bad as a mud bath (I've done several of both scenarios). Feels like we are well overdue a mud bath, think 2017 was the last one?

[rubenz]

I heard they are looking at bringing in an expert to take a look at some of the drainage issues in the lower fields.

[Alvoram]

I was watching a video about the Universal Studios project potentially coming to Bedford yesterday... This is one of the fields where it will be be built, filmed just this week...

How the hell is it so dry that it's cracking already? 



I think it will be fine, won't take much to dry out the ground. 

[gherkin8r]

Stick?

[Dizzy2012]

So happy to be back here on this thread!!

Trying to understand where you all get your info from, guessing way too far in advance what the weather will be, will I need gaitors or not, knowing full well it really doesn't matter because 27hrs ago, we didn't have tickets!! 

 

It can do it's worst (And I felt it in 2007!) it's still my favourite place on the planet! 

 

xx

[gherkin8r]

2 minutes ago, Dizzy2012 said:

So happy to be back here on this thread!!

Trying to understand where you all get your info from, guessing way too far in advance what the weather will be, will I need gaitors or not, knowing full well it really doesn't matter because 27hrs ago, we didn't have tickets!! 

 

It can do it's worst (And I felt it in 2007!) it's still my favourite place on the planet! 

 

xx

 

When it was just me, the missus and friends going that's exactly how I felt. As we now have 3 kids aged 4-11 going with us the thought of a really muddy one fills me with pure dread.

[The Nal]

14 minutes ago, Dizzy2012 said:

So happy to be back here on this thread!!

Trying to understand where you all get your info from, guessing way too far in advance what the weather will be, will I need gaitors or not, knowing full well it really doesn't matter because 27hrs ago, we didn't have tickets!! 

 

It can do it's worst (And I felt it in 2007!) it's still my favourite place on the planet! 

 

xx

 

We wont know what the weather for gates open will be until the Monday of the festival. Maybe Sunday before. And we won't know what the weather for Saturday/Sunday of the festival will be until we're actually on site.

 

But that doesn't stop people starting threads a year in advance.

 

As for the info, in a few weeks someone will open the gates of Broadmoor and Rampton and give the escapees internet access to a weather forecasting model for them to post on here in between meals where they eat their family members spleens.

[gherkin8r]

3 minutes ago, The Nal said:

 

We wont know what the weather for gates open will be until the Monday of the festival. Maybe Sunday before. And we won't know what the weather for Saturday/Sunday of the festival will be until we're actually on site.

 

But that doesn't stop people starting threads a year in advance.

 

As for the info, in a few weeks someone will open the gates of Broadmoor and Rampton and give the escapees internet access to a weather forecasting model for them to post on here in between meals where they eat their family members spleens.

Post of the year so far

[Dizzy2012]

46 minutes ago, gherkin8r said:

 

When it was just me, the missus and friends going that's exactly how I felt. As we now have 3 kids aged 4-11 going with us the thought of a really muddy one fills me with pure dread.

 This will be my boys 3rd time - they're now 11 and 8 so I do get it 😂

 

We've had teh same convo at home as we've been lucky with the weather post covid. Key with the kids if it's raining I reckon is we won't leave the camp / tent until we have a firm plan in mind of where we're heading. No wandering around aimlessly - especially later in the day as they'll be fed up. Circus and theatre are the go to's if raining. Also John Peel / woodsies is good and literally on our doorstep at wicket. 

 

We also have rain plans that we'll do the vague stuff that's further out early in the weekend whilst they're still fresh and excited, so do Park, Ribbon Tower, Stone circle etc Thursday / Friday then if needed, can stay closer to home Sat / sun. 

 

My biggest dread is the carpark walk - both years post covid, we've not arrived till 6am Thurs morning and been in pink carpark both times - ABSOLUTELY HORRIFIC. 

[AdrianH]

Weather models usually have a general gist within 120-144 hours or so i.e. is there going to be high or low pressure over the UK - rainfall amounts (and where exactly) is a much shorter timescale though.

 

The GFS weather model goes up to 384 hours for those that want to torture themselves over a couple of weeks!

[Crazyfool01]

bit grim this week after what in my opinion was a good week last .... although may have been different in Pilton we got a dry week here ( taunton ) still way to far out for it to be a problem though but may delay the covers going on the pyramid , dont think that happens in the rain 

[The Nal]

Really not looking good is it. Considering how wet the winter has been. Water table etc

 

[Spindles]

I'm packing a canoe this year.

[charlierc]

On 4/16/2024 at 9:40 AM, Alvoram said:

I was watching a video about the Universal Studios project potentially coming to Bedford yesterday... This is one of the fields where it will be be built, filmed just this week...

How the hell is it so dry that it's cracking already? 



I think it will be fine, won't take much to dry out the ground. 

I live the other side of Milton Keynes and that's not really the vibe I'm feeling with the fields round here. It hasn't been raining with the same frequency as it had done before Easter, but there's a lot of puddles still scattered around.

[Franky]

18 hours ago, The Nal said:

Really not looking good is it. Considering how wet the winter has been. Water table etc

 

You got a ticket this year mate? 

[Franky]

21 hours ago, gherkin8r said:

Stick?

Have you been smoking crack? 

[The Nal]

10 minutes ago, Franky said:

You got a ticket this year mate? 

 

Yeah.

[Franky]

4 hours ago, The Nal said:

 

Yeah.

😂